Was Trump losing a blessing in disguise for the GOP?

[Tekken_Guy]

Was Trump losing re-election in 2020 a blessing in disguise for the GOP?

[Roll Roons]

Speaking as a native of New Jersey, hell yeah. I can't imagine how much of a bloodbath it would have been for the state GOP if he was still in the White House.

[Mr.Phips]

Of course it was and Joe Biden winning was a disaster for Dems.  They should have seen it coming (I did) and just let Trump win in 2020.  Once RBG died and Trump replaced her, pretty much any good  reason for Dems to want Biden to win went out the window.

Democrats have pretty much had three Presidents in a row that have progressively destroyed the party more and more downballot (Clinton, Obama, and Biden). 

[TPIG]

Absolutely, and one that I hope persists in the form of Trump never running again.

[Mr. Smith]

Yes.

[TML]

Yes in the sense that the person who defeated him is not a fighter (FDR and LBJ are what I would consider "fighters"), but not necessarily in the sense of getting the party to shift gears to broaden their appeal (and the latter may very well limit their gains as long as Trump remains relevant).

[Skill and Chance]

Likely yes, the only exception being if the economy crashes between 2025 and 2028.

[Schiff for Senate]

No, because now they've shown their true colours as the anti-democracy party.

[Mr.Phips]

Likely yes, the only exception being if the economy crashes between 2025 and 2028.

Why would that be bad for them?

[RFayette]

No, because whatever electoral disadvantages there are at the congressional level in the midterm could just as easily be replayed if he wins in 2024 - and he could run again in a weakened state in 2024 and even possibly 2028, while if he won in 2020 then there'd be nothing further to worry about beyond 2024.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Likely yes, the only exception being if the economy crashes between 2025 and 2028.

Why would that be bad for them?

I think he is assuming the Republicans win in 2024.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

No, because the way in which he lost ensured that Trump and the GOP are still one and the same, which is objectively a bad thing. For electoral prospects in the immediate future, probably yes. Biden seems to be a weak incumbent and may very well lose a rematch.

It's a blessing in disguise for Trump, because he lost by a slim enough margin that his claims of fraud are semi-plausible, his base remains intact, and now he gets to be the de facto opposition leader while hand picking candidates that will run as Trump allies in a GOP-favoring midterm environment. All of this sets the stage for a comeback in 2024, or for a Trump ally to run.

If Trump won, 2022 would be Blue Wave part 2 and 2024 would be an open seat race following 8 years of an unpopular Trump administration. Best case for Dems, aside from the whole "8 years of Trump" thing and probably a 7-2 Supreme Court and thus probably no more Roe.

If Trump lost by as much as polls said he would (Biden wins ~350 EV, a few more Senate seats flip) then the national GOP more likely seeks to separate itself and move on, which is objectively better for party and country, but GOP candidates just continue along the populist/culture war track that they're already on, just minus most of the Trump pandering. Or maybe not. Probably depends on the state.

[Skill and Chance]

No, because the way in which he lost ensured that Trump and the GOP are still one and the same, which is objectively a bad thing. For electoral prospects in the immediate future, probably yes. Biden seems to be a weak incumbent and may very well lose a rematch.

It's a blessing in disguise for Trump, because he lost by a slim enough margin that his claims of fraud are semi-plausible, his base remains intact, and now he gets to be the de facto opposition leader while hand picking candidates that will run as Trump allies in a GOP-favoring midterm environment. All of this sets the stage for a comeback in 2024, or for a Trump ally to run.

If Trump won, 2022 would be Blue Wave part 2 and 2024 would be an open seat race following 8 years of an unpopular Trump administration. Best case for Dems, aside from the whole "8 years of Trump" thing and probably a 7-2 Supreme Court and thus probably no more Roe.

If Trump lost by as much as polls said he would (Biden wins ~350 EV, a few more Senate seats flip) then the national GOP more likely seeks to separate itself and move on, which is objectively better for party and country, but GOP candidates just continue along the populist/culture war track that they're already on, just minus most of the Trump pandering. Or maybe not. Probably depends on the state.

This is next to impossible to come back from, and it's the point at which dramatic stuff starts happening (aside from Roe which would have faded away over time just having Roberts as the swing vote).

[Person Man]

As of right now, without knowing the consequences of his policies of appointments, it does appear that way. Those consequences could be severe enough to change the calculus eventually.

[MABA 2020]

Possibly, but no one will ever convince me Trump winning 2020 would be good for Democrats. Trump was a dangerous lunatic, it is an immeasurable good he is no longer in a position of power, for now at least.

[ElectionsGuy]

There are always trade-offs to winning and losing elections. Losing typically means you get time to build up a bench in Congress/state govt and the more time a party is in power the more voters want a change so it's difficult to keep a streak going longer than two elections as we've seen.

[Skill and Chance]

There are always trade-offs to winning and losing elections. Losing typically means you get time to build up a bench in Congress/state govt and the more time a party is in power the more voters want a change so it's difficult to keep a streak going longer than two elections as we've seen.

I mean, they got a 6/3 SCOTUS without getting blown out in congress or in the states.  What more could an opposition party ask for?  It's the best starting position a losing party has been in since at least the Ike era Dems.

[beaver2.0]

It certainly isn't the worst thing to ever happen to the Republican Party.  Especially if 2024 turns out to be a bloodbath.

[TML]

Of course it was and Joe Biden winning was a disaster for Dems.  They should have seen it coming (I did) and just let Trump win in 2020.  Once RBG died and Trump replaced her, pretty much any good  reason for Dems to want Biden to win went out the window.

Democrats have pretty much had three Presidents in a row that have progressively destroyed the party more and more downballot (Clinton, Obama, and Biden). 

I don't think that's necessarily true. Exit polls from 2020 indicated that Biden won the group which considered SC appointments an important factor. Additionally, if Trump got to replace any of Breyer/Sotomayor/Kagan, that would make the rightward tilt of the court much more significant, so in that sense letting Biden replace any of those three can be seen as "damage control" which is still better than the alternative.

[President Johnson]

Of course it was and Joe Biden winning was a disaster for Dems.  They should have seen it coming (I did) and just let Trump win in 2020.  Once RBG died and Trump replaced her, pretty much any good  reason for Dems to want Biden to win went out the window.

Democrats have pretty much had three Presidents in a row that have progressively destroyed the party more and more downballot (Clinton, Obama, and Biden). 

Ok, say Joe Biden loses in 2020 and Trump gets another term with the senate still Republican and the House narrowly Democratic. 2022 is a Democratic wave again, with Democrats gaining 15-20 House seats and picking up the senate. A Democrat wins big in 2024 and with larger majorities actually passes some good policies. Wouldn't the Democrats still face problems in 2026 and beyond then? That would just have delayed the next backlash for four years.

I think it's possible neither party will ever hold a trifecta for more than two years in the coming years and decades.

[Pres Mike]

Possibly, but no one will ever convince me Trump winning 2020 would be good for Democrats. Trump was a dangerous lunatic, it is an immeasurable good he is no longer in a position of power, for now at least.

This

Had Trump won re-election, Democrats were never winning another national election again.

[darklordoftech]

and with larger majorities actually passes some good policies.

That’s why it isn’t just delaying the backlash. A backlash after getting your policies past > a backlash and none of your policies past.

[Mr. Smith]

Possibly, but no one will ever convince me Trump winning 2020 would be good for Democrats. Trump was a dangerous lunatic, it is an immeasurable good he is no longer in a position of power, for now at least.

This

Had Trump won re-election, Democrats were never winning another national election again.

Trump winning election in the first place was supposed to be the end too.

[Pres Mike]

Possibly, but no one will ever convince me Trump winning 2020 would be good for Democrats. Trump was a dangerous lunatic, it is an immeasurable good he is no longer in a position of power, for now at least.

This

Had Trump won re-election, Democrats were never winning another national election again.

Trump winning election in the first place was supposed to be the end too.

And we came 'this' close

We were moments away from a mad mob killing Pelosi, Schumer, Pence, Romney and atleast one Democratic senator...

[Mr. Smith]

Possibly, but no one will ever convince me Trump winning 2020 would be good for Democrats. Trump was a dangerous lunatic, it is an immeasurable good he is no longer in a position of power, for now at least.

This

Had Trump won re-election, Democrats were never winning another national election again.

Trump winning election in the first place was supposed to be the end too.

And we came 'this' close

We were moments away from a mad mob killing Pelosi, Schumer, Pence, Romney and atleast one Democratic senator...

Because he lost.  Not helping the case,

You think this wouldn't have happened if Hillary won? Ha! Would you like my ski chalet in Delaware?

Of course it was and Joe Biden winning was a disaster for Dems.  They should have seen it coming (I did) and just let Trump win in 2020.  Once RBG died and Trump replaced her, pretty much any good  reason for Dems to want Biden to win went out the window.

Democrats have pretty much had three Presidents in a row that have progressively destroyed the party more and more downballot (Clinton, Obama, and Biden). 

Ok, say Joe Biden loses in 2020 and Trump gets another term with the senate still Republican and the House narrowly Democratic. 2022 is a Democratic wave again, with Democrats gaining 15-20 House seats and picking up the senate. A Democrat wins big in 2024 and with larger majorities actually passes some good policies. Wouldn't the Democrats still face problems in 2026 and beyond then? That would just have delayed the next backlash for four years.

I think it's possible neither party will ever hold a trifecta for more than two years in the coming years and decades.

Yes, but maybe they take back a lot of downballot offices and actually put in safeguards too, and they get all sorts done before the backlash.

Instead, the backlash was invited early by default.