It's clear now Trump would've been reelected if not for Covid despite what I thought at the time. So if you wanted to find the silver lining of the pandemic, I guess that would be it
Dems would have been far better off throughout the 2020s had Trump won in 2020. The pandemic has been a disaster for Democrats.
My response:
Possibly, but no one will ever convince me Trump winning 2020 would be good for Democrats. Trump was a dangerous lunatic, it is an immeasurable good he is no longer in a position of power, for now at least.
The 2020's are likely to be bad for the democrats but it is not yet certain and I think it's a little absurd to suggest that giving Trump a second victory would change the facist trajectory of the GOP or the slow death of American democracy.
Giving Trump a second term would make it more likely for Democrats to actually get a governing majority in 2024 or at least have a seat at the table throughout the decade due to control of the House.
For all we know though they could have lost a few seats in the 2024 Senate races while gaining the presidency so done similarly or worse to 2020, especially if without the pandemic they choked badly in the 2020 Senate races.
Also Republicans winning Term 3 may be possible in a no pandemic world even if I think thats very likely. It would though depend on a few things:
- Would someone like Mike Pence be able to keep the Trump base
- When the inevitable end to the mid/late 2010s boom happens cause if it happens early enough and if its only a early 2000s style recession is very possible the economy could be pretty strong in 2024 as well
- How strong potential candidates like Whitmer/Cooper/Polis cause the new comers to the 2020 dem field were pretty weak candidates.
Keep in mind that McCain pre Lehman was tied in the polls(even though he was always narrowly down
EV wise ) and that was despite Bush’s approval being in the 20s , Iraq being very unpopular, the economy already in decline and the democrats nominating a strong of a candidate like Obama
Poll
