India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

f) INC is out of the game for now and perhaps forever. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (PGV) clearly has a support base but the INC brand is so weak that most of her supporters must have voted non-INC.  INC lost its base over the years due to the 1993 BSP alliance (Dalit base lost) and the 2017 SP alliance (Muslim base lost) but now it might need to form alliances as a junior party just to survive.

We won't know that for sure until the 2024 elections, but if that is borne out in election results then, maybe it might be time for the Aam Aadmi Party to take up the mantle as the national opposition party to the governing BJP coalition by picking up the Congress Party's pieces.

We will only know if/when the BJP loses power. Whatever party defeats the BJP is the party that will be the natural opposition of India going forward.

[Frodo]

f) INC is out of the game for now and perhaps forever. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (PGV) clearly has a support base but the INC brand is so weak that most of her supporters must have voted non-INC.  INC lost its base over the years due to the 1993 BSP alliance (Dalit base lost) and the 2017 SP alliance (Muslim base lost) but now it might need to form alliances as a junior party just to survive.

We won't know that for sure until the 2024 elections, but if that is borne out in election results then, maybe it might be time for the Aam Aadmi Party to take up the mantle as the national opposition party to the governing BJP coalition by picking up the Congress Party's pieces.

We will only know if/when the BJP loses power. Whatever party defeats the BJP is the party that will be the natural opposition of India going forward.

I don't know if you understood me.  Whichever political party that wins the second most votes to the governing coalition becomes the main national opposition party.  When they eventually beat the governing BJP, they become the governing coalition, not the 'natural opposition'. 

[jaichind]

f) INC is out of the game for now and perhaps forever. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (PGV) clearly has a support base but the INC brand is so weak that most of her supporters must have voted non-INC.  INC lost its base over the years due to the 1993 BSP alliance (Dalit base lost) and the 2017 SP alliance (Muslim base lost) but now it might need to form alliances as a junior party just to survive.

We won't know that for sure until the 2024 elections, but if that is borne out in election results then, maybe it might be time for the Aam Aadmi Party to take up the mantle as the national opposition party to the governing BJP coalition by picking up the Congress Party's pieces.

I was speaking in the context of INC in UP.  In much of Northern India INC is still in the game.

At the national level, I find it hard to believe AAP can emerge as the alternative to BJP.  AITC has better chance than AAP and the reality is there is no opposition front to BJP in 2024 without INC.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

f) INC is out of the game for now and perhaps forever. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (PGV) clearly has a support base but the INC brand is so weak that most of her supporters must have voted non-INC.  INC lost its base over the years due to the 1993 BSP alliance (Dalit base lost) and the 2017 SP alliance (Muslim base lost) but now it might need to form alliances as a junior party just to survive.

We won't know that for sure until the 2024 elections, but if that is borne out in election results then, maybe it might be time for the Aam Aadmi Party to take up the mantle as the national opposition party to the governing BJP coalition by picking up the Congress Party's pieces.

We will only know if/when the BJP loses power. Whatever party defeats the BJP is the party that will be the natural opposition of India going forward.

I don't know if you understood me.  Whichever political party that wins the second most votes to the governing coalition becomes the main national opposition party.  When they eventually beat the governing BJP, they become the governing coalition, not the 'natural opposition'. 

I was talking long-term. Whatever opposition force is strong enough to actually defeat BJP, is also set to retain a lot of long-term strength over the coming decades (unless they mess up massively a la Janata Dal in 1977...).

[Frodo]

f) INC is out of the game for now and perhaps forever. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (PGV) clearly has a support base but the INC brand is so weak that most of her supporters must have voted non-INC.  INC lost its base over the years due to the 1993 BSP alliance (Dalit base lost) and the 2017 SP alliance (Muslim base lost) but now it might need to form alliances as a junior party just to survive.

We won't know that for sure until the 2024 elections, but if that is borne out in election results then, maybe it might be time for the Aam Aadmi Party to take up the mantle as the national opposition party to the governing BJP coalition by picking up the Congress Party's pieces.

I was speaking in the context of INC in UP.  In much of Northern India INC is still in the game.

At the national level, I find it hard to believe AAP can emerge as the alternative to BJP.  AITC has better chance than AAP and the reality is there is no opposition front to BJP in 2024 without INC.

f) INC is out of the game for now and perhaps forever. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (PGV) clearly has a support base but the INC brand is so weak that most of her supporters must have voted non-INC.  INC lost its base over the years due to the 1993 BSP alliance (Dalit base lost) and the 2017 SP alliance (Muslim base lost) but now it might need to form alliances as a junior party just to survive.

We won't know that for sure until the 2024 elections, but if that is borne out in election results then, maybe it might be time for the Aam Aadmi Party to take up the mantle as the national opposition party to the governing BJP coalition by picking up the Congress Party's pieces.

We will only know if/when the BJP loses power. Whatever party defeats the BJP is the party that will be the natural opposition of India going forward.

I don't know if you understood me.  Whichever political party that wins the second most votes to the governing coalition becomes the main national opposition party.  When they eventually beat the governing BJP, they become the governing coalition, not the 'natural opposition'. 

I was talking long-term. Whatever opposition force is strong enough to actually defeat BJP, is also set to retain a lot of long-term strength over the coming decades (unless they mess up massively a la Janata Dal in 1977...).

All right. Gotcha.

Glad we got that cleared up. 

[jaichind]

Its been 10 days since BJP's victory in Goa.  Still no government.  It seems the old INC factional disease has made its appearance in the BJP.  This makes sense since a near majority of BJP MLAs have an INC background anyway.

[jaichind]

https://vervetimes.com/2-arrested-in-connection-with-death-threats-to-karnataka-high-court-judges-over-hijab-verdict/

"2 Arrested In Connection With Death Threats To Karnataka High Court Judges Over Hijab Verdict"

BJP was and still is en route to losing in the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections.  Still, there are people out there determined to do everything to try to give BJP a chance.

[jaichind]

Despite losing his seat Uttarakhand BJP CM Pushkar Singh Dhami will continue as CM.  This means he has 6 months to reenter as a MLA in a by-election. 

[jaichind]

In the 2022 UP assembly elections 2 parties go over 100 seats (BJP - 255 and SP - 110).  This is fairly rare in UP assembly elections.  It only took place 3 times (1974 1993 1996).  In 1974 INC and BKD (ancestor part of SP and RLD) were over 100 seats.  In 1993 and 1996 it was BJP and SP that went over 100 seats.  In 1974 INC barely won a majority while in 1993 and 1996 BJP won a plurality but did not come even close to a majority.

2022 had 2 parties with over 100 seats AND BJP with a solid majority which speaks to the record level of polarization.

[jaichind]

In 2022 AAP winning 92 seats is fairly rare in Punjab elections in terms of the scale of victory in a state that tends to have close elections.  The only other 2 times a victory of such scale was reached was in 1977 when a monster SAD-JNP (which included proto-BJP)-CPM smashed INC-CPI by winning 91 seats and in 1997 when SAD-BJP won a landslide victory over INC-CPI by winning 94 seats.  Both those elections were mostly bipolar so they were won with a larger vote share than the 42.3% vote share of the AAP.

2022 Punjab assembly elections have the BJP running separately from SAD for the first time in 1980 and 1985.   In 1980 and 1985 the BJP ran only in Hindu areas and won 6.5% with 1 seat and 5.0% with 6 seats respectively.  In 2022 BJP+ won 7.8% with BJP winning 6.7% and 2 seats.  It seems the BJP base in Punjab has not risen since the 1980s although I guess some BJP voters voted tactically for AAP to defeat INC.

[jaichind]

politicalbaaba caste breakdown in UP vote where he took the CSDS numbers then computed the vote weight of each community of BJP+ SP+ and BSP coalitions





Yadav-Muslims make up 24.3% out of 36.5% SP+ vote while Dalits make up 10.2% out of the 12.9% BSP vote.  Other than the lack of Muslims the BJP+ coalition is the most balanced.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/petrol-diesel-price-today-fuel-prices-rise-by-80-paise-for-second-consecutive-day-2837665

"Fuel Prices Rise By 80 Paise For Second Consecutive Day"

Now that elections are over the fuel price increases which were being held down by the government earlier this year have been let loose as inflation surges.

[jaichind]

In Manipur NPP now also supports the new BJP government.  So every MLA except for the 6 INC MLAs is backing the new government.  If these 6 INC MLAs defect to BJP perhaps NDA can achieve the opposition-less Nagaland assembly where NGP NDPP and BJP are all part of the NDPP government.  Such a development merely means the main conflict moves to be inside the various factions of the government as opposed to government vs opposition.

[jaichind]

https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/politics/kcr-confirms-association-with-prashant-kishor-sure-of-bagging-95-105-seats-in-telangana-articleshow.html

"KCR Confirms Association With Prashant Kishor; Sure Of Bagging 95-105 Seats In Telangana"

It seems Prashant Kishor will work for Telengana's TRS CM KCR for the 2023 assembly elections.  

Prashant Kishor organized the 2014 BJP LS elections before a falling out with the BJP and then working for the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance in Bihar to defeat BJP in 2015.  He then worked with INC in 2017 Punjab and UP before dropping out of the 2017 INC UP campaign when INC went with an alliance with SP but played a role in the 2017 INC Punjab victory.  He then joined JD(U) before falling out with Nitish Kumar over the new BJP backed CAA law.  He then ran the AITC WB campaign in 2021 helping AITC buck anti-incumbency to win re-election.

Now he will try to do the same magic for TRS in 2023 Telangana.  In the 2023 Telangana assembly elections it will be TRS vs INC in rural areas and TRS vs BJP in urban areas.  Will be a fun 3-way fight.

It seems Prashant Kishor also offered to work for free for the Gujarat INC to help defeat BJP in the assembly elections later this year.  It seems the INC old guard there are not keen but the INC Young Turks in Gujarat want his help.

[jaichind]

https://hwnews.in/news/politics/prashant-kishor-to-join-congress-will-oversee-gujarat-campaign-sources-1349378

"Prashant Kishor To Join Congress, Will Oversee Gujarat Campaign: Sources"

Very big deal if true.  Prashant Kishor will be risking his brand here by taking on the BJP in Gujarat later this year.  If he takes this on this will be the first election where he has the fundamentals against him.  2014 BJP LS, 2015 RJD-JD(U)-INC Bihar, 2017 INC Punjab, and 2021 WB AITC all had fundamentals in his favor.  2021 INC Gujarat will clearly have fundamentals against him.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/patna/after-bjps-demand-nitish-sacks-vip-chief-mukesh-sahani-from-bihar-cabinet-7839568/

"After BJP’s demand, Nitish sacks VIP chief Mukesh Sahani from Bihar Cabinet"

BJP payback to VIP for trying to go after the BJP in Eastern UP to take Nishad vote away from NDA.  VIP ran with JD(U)-BJP in the 2020 Bihar elections and borrowed a bunch of BJP candidates to run on the VIP symbol which 3 of them won.  All 3 have defected to the BJP and VIP were removed from the NDA in Bihar as part of a post-UP election purge.  Note that JD(U) also tried to cut into the NDA Kurmi vote in Eastern UP but BJP needs JD(U) in Bihar so the BJP mostly let it go as long as JD(U) fall back in line which it did.

[jaichind]

After the latest round of RS elections, the number of BJP MPs in RS hits 100.  The last time a party crossed 100 was INC back in the late 1980s.  INC falls to 29 which is the lowest in the history of INC.

[jaichind]

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/politics/congress-preparing-to-take-big-bet-in-gujarat-prashant-kishors-strategy-naresh-patels-face20220401215308/

"Congress preparing to take big bet in Gujarat: Prashant Kishor's strategy, Naresh Patel's face?"

It seems likely that industrialist Leuva Patidar sub-caste leader and a major Patel figure Naresh Patel will join INC and become its CMf face. BJP and AAP have been trying to get Naresh Patel to join as well.  It also seems if this is true then most likely Prashant Kishor will also join INC to help run the 2022 INC Gujarat campaign.  It was rumored that Naresh Patel would join INC if Prashant Kishor were to run the INC Gujarat campaign.

Patels historically voted BJP but in 2017 part of the Patels clearly rebelled and voted INC even as the OBC vote swung toward the BJP producing a narrow BJP victory.  It seems this time INC wants to expand on its strategy of flipping the Patel vote if this news is true,

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/state/40-commission-contractors-announce-massive-protest-1095269.html

"40% commission: Contractors announce massive protest"

In Karnataka, the contractors are threatening a mass protest over what they call the "40% government" where 40% of all government spending are stolen by the MPs and MLAs.  They claim that under INC before 2018 it was the "10% government" but now it has turned into "40% government"

[jaichind]

Punjab 2022 vs 2017 results by Hindu and Sikh seats

Hindu seats

                      2022                                                 2017
         Contest  Won  Vote share                   Contest   Won   Vote share
AAP     27         14       33.91%         AAP+     27          0          18.05%

INC     27           9       30.39%         INC        27         21         42.02%

SAD+  27           2       14.58%         SAD+    27           6          30.75%

BJP+   27           2       16.07%        
 
                                                      BSP        27         0            3.86%



Sikh Seats
 
                      2022                                                 2017
         Contest  Won  Vote share                   Contest   Won   Vote share
AAP     90         78       44.58%         AAP+     90         22         27.03%

INC     90           9       21.19%         INC        90         56         37.89%

SAD+  90           2       21.84%         SAD+     90         12         30.88%

BJP+   89           0        5.56%        
 
                                                      BSP        85         0            0.90%


2017  SAD+ = SAD-BJP
2022  SAD+ = SAD-BSP
2022  BJP+ = BJP-PLC-SAD(S)

INC was strong in Hindu seats in 2017 and lost less ground there than in Sikh seats leading to an OK result for INC in Hindu seats.  INC was sitting pretty in Hindu seats since AAP was weak there and the anti-INC vote was further divided between the BJP and SAD.  The result was an unexpected massive anti-INC consolidation around AAP who won a slight majority of the seats pushing INC into second place here.  BSP had some support here and actually did help SAD win a seat with BSP winning 1 due to an INC rebel splitting the INC vote in one of the seats BSP was contesting.

AAP was already stronger in Sikh seats and was more efficient than SAD in converting them into seats in 2017.  AAP gained more in Sikh seats in 2022 relative to 2017 than in Hindu seats and with that high seat efficiency won a massive landslide with INC and SAD+ splitting the non-AAP vote evenly.  In both 2017 and 2022, the SAD vote share to seat conversation was poor and BSP added nothing here.

[jaichind]

Community breakdown of HP which will vote in late 2022 along with Gujarat

Rajput - 32%
Bramhin - 18%
OBC - 13%
Dalit - 25%
Tribals - 6%
Muslim - 2%
Sikh - 1%

The good news for INC is that anti-Muslim consolidation will not work here.  On the other side, Uttarakhand in 2022 showed how much the Upper caste vote has moved toward the BJP even in states with a lower Muslim population.  BJP can win by sweeping the Rajput and Brahmin vote alone.  INC has to hope the Upper caste surge for BJP in Uttarakhand where the BJP is the incumbent is a one-off.  If not then HP might go the way of Gujarat and become unwinnable for INC for several election cycles.

[jaichind]

Current J&K district delineation plans.   Note mostly Hindu Jammu will grow in the number of seats relative to Muslim Kashmir.  The delineation commission defended this on the premise that they wanted to add in a bunch of reserved Dalit and Tribal seats and that could only be done in Jammu.

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

Several by-elections today.  The Bochaha assembly seat in Bihar is interesting as the history of defections of candidates in this seat over the last few cycles is interesting.

2005
Ramai Ram(RJD)          42.1% (with INC support)
JD(U)                          36.9% (with BJP support)
LJP                               7.5% (INC ally at the national level)

Ramai Ram then defected to JD(U)

2010
Ramai Ram (JD(U))       50.6% (with BJP support)
Musafir Paswan (RJD)    30.9% (with LJP support)
Baby Kumari(INC)          4.3%

Baby Kumari has since defected to BJP and was going to become the BJP candidate in 2015 after JD(U) broke its alliance with BJP,  But then BJP handed the seat to LJP and Baby Kumari ran as a BJP rebel.  RJD backed JD(U)'s Ramai Ram in 2015 leading Musafir Paswan to run for SP.   The RJD and BJP base were unhappy with their parties supporting candidates of another party and fused their vote behind BJP rebel Baby Kumari

2015
Baby Kumari (BJP rebel) 40.7% (de facto BJP support)
Ramai Ram(JD(U))         26.2% (with RJD and INC support)
SHS                               7.1%
LJP                                4.4% (in theory BJP RLSP and HAM support)
Musafir Paswan(SP)         3.1%

BJP and JD(U) reformed their alliance and this seat was given by JD(U) to BJP to run Baby Kumari.  This provoked JD(U)'s Ramai Ram to defect back to RJD.   In the meantime, BJP roped in VIP and gave this seat to VIP.  BJP convinced Baby Kumari that her time will come and not rebel.  BJP helped VIP to recruit Musafir Paswan who went on to win the election in 2020.

2020
Musafir Paswan (VIP)     43.5% (with BJP and JD(U) support)
Ramai Ram (RJD)          37.2% (with INC and Left Front support)
LJP                                 4.6% (aligned with BJP at the national level)


Now VIP's Musafir Paswan has passed away.  VIP's alliance with BJP has also in the meantime broken.  VIP was going to run Musafir Paswan's son Amar Paswan to cash in on the sympathy factor but RJD beat VIP to it and got Amar Paswan to run for RJD.  VIP roped in Gita Devi who is the daughter of Ramai Ram.  BJP will run Baby Kumari with JD(U) support.  So the by-election will be

2022
Baby Kumari (BJP)         (backed by JD(U) and RLJP)
Amar Paswan (RJD)       (son of 2020 VIP candidate Musafir Paswan)
Gita Devi (VIP)              (daughter of 2020 RJD candidate Ramai Ram)
INC

With RJD and VIP candidates children flipped from 2020.  With JD(U) support and the power of state-level incumbency, Baby Kumari should win.   LJP had since split into pro-JD(U) RLJP and anti-JDU(U) LJP(RS).  LJP(RS) is not running a candidate and I suspect they are de facto supporting RJD.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-amit-shah-s-remark-has-sparked-off-fears-of-hindi-imposition-on-states-1937499-2022-04-14

"Why Amit Shah’s remark has sparked off fears of ‘Hindi imposition’ on states"

Amit Shah made the point a few days ago that Hindi should be the lingua franca between different states as opposed to English.  Big pushback from Dravidian language states (even from the BJP in those states) due to long-time fears of Hindi imposition.  Still, this fits my narrative of Modi/BJP's vision of an Indo-Aryan Hindu India as the main identity of India.