India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

Two fun splintered results in Goa with 6 candidates with at least double-digit (or very close to double-digit) vote share

Cortalim
Independent                  23.3% (has defunct Christian regional UGP background)
INC                               18.3% (ran in 2017 as AAP)
BJP rebel                       17.9% (was in the running to get BJP ticket but was not selected)
AITC                              13.7% (ran in 2017 as INC)
RGP                               10.5%
BJP                                10.1%
AAP                                 5.7% (ran and won in 2017 as BJP but then fell out with BJP)


Navelim
BJP                               24.4%
AITC                             22.4% (daughter of 2017 NCP winner from a district next door)
INC                               18.0% (ran in 2017 as INC rebel)
NCP                              12.4%
AAP                              11.0%
RGP                                9.9%

[jaichind]

I know it's two years early, but given the election results so far, does it look like the coalition behind Prime Minister Narendra Modi will win another landslide in 2024, and hold on for yet another five years?

As long as Modi is at the top of the ticket I cannot see how NDA does not return to power with a large majority unless something dramatic takes place between now and 2024.

There have been 2 times where a ruling party is defending a landslide victory the election before.  INC in 1977 after the 1971 landslide and INC in 1989 after the 1984 landslide.  In both cases, the ruling party was expected to take losses but retain the majority and in both cases, both unexpected lost their majority.

In  1977 we had the emergency of 1975-1977 but even before the emergency, the unexpected defeat of INC in the 1975 Gujarat assembly election was a sign that things are not going well for INC.   In 1989 we had a bunch of INC setbacks in the 1987 assembly election especially the landslide defeat of INC in the 1987 Haryana assembly elections.

But right now 2 years before the LS elections, BJP seems to be riding high and has no signs of weakness.  If BJP loses Gujarat later this year that would be a sign that things will be hard for the BJP in 2024.  I just do not see that taking place.  Most likely BJP will lose Karnataka in 2023 but Karnataka does not really set the national trend.

I think if Modi is at the head of the ticket it might more be a battle to try to make NDA lose seats.  As long as BJP has an alliance with AIADMK it is clear that NDA will gain a bunch of seats in TN.  I can see BJP also gaining some seats in Odisha.  BJP will most likely lose some seats in WB, Karnataka, and Maharastra (as long as the SHS-NCP alliance holds) that will balance out those gains.  The battle would then be to try to make NDA lose some seats in the Hindi heartland, especially in places like Bihar and UP.  It is unlikely that BJP will lose enough seats for the overall majority to be at risk.

[jaichind]

The way I can see how BJP can be beaten in 2024 would be somehow INC AITC and AAP merge into one party.  The Gandhi clan takes a back seat and focuses on alliance formation while Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal become the PM/DPM face to take on Modi while having access to what is left of the INC organization in states where AITC and AAP have no presence.  Even in states where INC is weak the fact that they have some vote share makes it easier to form alliances with various local regional parties (DMK RJD).

Of course, there is no reason to believe such a merge will take place, and even if it does why the Gandhi clan would step aside for Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal to be in charge.

[jaichind]

In UP there were over 91 million valid non-null votes.  That puts it on the same scale as the 1988 USA Prez election.

[jaichind]

CSDS post-election survey of Punjab by community.  INC failed to retain its Dalit base despite putting a SIkh Dalit as CM.  BJP did make some gains with Hindu votes from INC.  Both INC and SAD lost Jat Sikh support to AAP who gained across the board.


Punjab vote by age, gender, education etc etc


It seems anti-incumbency against INC was high and was doomed to defeat regardless who it made CM.

[jaichind]

UP MLA breakdown by caste.  Upper caste skew BJP.  Yadav and Muslim skew SP

52 Brahmin MLAs (BJP : 46, SP : 5, INC : 1)

49 Thakur MLAs (BJP : 43, SP : 4, BSP : 1, JDL : 1)

41 Kurmi MLAs (BJP+ : 27, SP : 13, INC : 1)

27 Yadav MLAs (BJP : 3, SP : 24)

34 Muslim MLAs of SP+.

[jaichind]

Uttarakhand BJP CM Pushkar Singh Dhami led the BJP to victory but lost his seat.   There is ongoing debate in BJP high command on if they should try to continue with Dhami and try to get him elected via a by-election or going with someone else. 

[jaichind]

CSDS post-election survey of Goa.

BJP gained with Hindus and lost ground with Christians.  But the Christian consolidation behind INC never showed up leading to BJP victory.


It seems AITC but especially RGP took a bunch of INC Christian votes.  MGP recaptured some ground from BJP with its old OBC Bhandari vote but BJP made up that ground by gaining upper caste votes from both INC and MGP.  The BJP lost ground with the Maratha vote which most likely went to NCP-SHS.

[jaichind]

Navjot Singh Sidhu resigns as Punjab INC Prez

[jaichind]

India Prez and Vice-Prez vote coming up in July

LS and RS MPs as well as all state assembly MLAs get to vote.  LS and RS MP vote weight are the same while the state assembly MLA vote weight is a function of that state population in a way that total MP vote weight is the same as total MLA vote weight.

Due to BJP losing some seats in UP now NDA is slightly below majority but it will be easy for them to rope in MP and MLAs from non-UPA parties to back their candidate for Prez and Vice-Prez

[CumbrianLefty]

Navjot Singh Sidhu resigns as Punjab INC Prez

That went well, then!

[eos]

Navjot Singh Sidhu resigns as Punjab INC Prez

I guess he would have been better off if he had waited and let Amarinder Singh lose the 2022 elections.

[jaichind]

UP caste candidate breakdown by bloc

BJP+               Candidates     Win
Upper Caste         173           117
OBC                    143             90
Dalit                     86             65
Muslims                  1               0

SP+               Candidates     Win
Upper Caste          79             11
OBC                    171             60
Dalit                     89             20
Muslims                63             34

BSP               Candidates     Win
Upper Caste        110               1
OBC                    114              0
Dalit                     93               0
Muslims                86               0

BSP made a big push with Upper Caste and Muslim candidates and totally bombed with both.  SP+ clearly got the Muslim vote with their high Muslim candidate strike rate.  BJP+ was very upper caste heavy but that did not get in the way of them winning non-Yadav OBCs and doing well with Dalits.

[jaichind]

Navjot Singh Sidhu resigns as Punjab INC Prez

I guess he would have been better off if he had waited and let Amarinder Singh lose the 2022 elections.

He made the Punjab INC into a clown show and pulled the INC seat count down into the 20s.  Had he just left things alone and let  Amarinder Singh lead the INC into battle the INC clearly would have lost but perhaps have the 30s or even 40s MLAs and he could have come into taking over an INC in reasonable shape in opposition to AAP.  Now he has nothing.

[jaichind]

UP result analysis (part 1 of 4)

It would be useful to look at the 2012 2017 and 2022 UP assembly elections by region to map out the BJP surge to the top.

First we should break UP up into 10 regions by breaking up the sub-regions of Western UP, Rohilkhand, Bundelkhand, Awadh, and Purvanchal.


I further broke these regions into subregions

Western UP - Western UP-Jat (Northern part of Western UP where Jats and Mulsims are numerous), and Western UP-Yada (Southern part of Western UP where Yadav are numerous)

Rohilkhand - Rohilkhand-West (Has higher numbers of Jat, Yadavs and Mulsims) and Rohilkhand-East (much more like Awadh)

Bundelkhand - small enough so no need to subdivide

Awadh - Awadh-West (core of UP, high concentration Upper Caste and non-Yadav OBC) and Awadh-East (old INC stronghold which has been drifting toward SP)

Purvanchal - Purvanchal-North (Yogi Adityanath base of Gorakhpur and surrounding areas), Purvanchal-Center (high concentration of Upper caste and some secular Muslims), Purvanchal-South(Modi's seat of Varanasi and surrounding areas).

First a map of overall results in 2012 2017 2022

            2022   2022                       2017      2017                     2012       2012
            Vote    Seats                       Vote      Seats                     Vote       Seats
BJP+   44.12%  273        BJP+       41.77%   325           BJP+    15.16%       47
SP+    36.82%  125        SP+         22.34%    49           SP+      29.39%    226
INC       2.35%     2        INC            6.30%     7            INC+    14.01%      38
BSP    12.96%      1        BSP         22.43%    19            BSP      25.91%      80
JDL      0.21%      2        RLD           1.80%      1            PECP      2.35%       4
                                    NISHAD      0.63%      1           AD         0.90%        1
                                                                                  SBSP      0.63%       0
                                                                                  JKP         1.24%       0
                                                                                  QED       0.55%       1

2012 was the worst BJP year since the 1980s while 2012 was the best INC year since the early 1990s.  From 2012 to 2022 we went from a 4 party system to a 2.5 and de facto 2 party system.

In 2012 BJP was allied with JP(S) while RLD was in an alliance with INC. Pratapgarh based mafia don party JDL was part of the SP alliance.  Muslim based PECP and its Kurmi based AD allied did well.  BJP splitter JKP took a bunch of BJP votes. which was allied with BJP in the 2000s did well while BSP Muslim mafia don splinter QED won a seat.  Rajbhar based BSP splinter  SBSP also made a mark.  The result was a SP majority based on the 4 way splintering of the UP vote.

In 2017, BSP roped in AD(S) (AD had split into pro-BJP AD(S) and anti-BJP AD(K) and SBSP while SP and INC had an tactical alliance while JDL stayed with SP alliance. RLD ran on its own.  JKP merged back into BJP while QED first tried to merge into SP but was rejected by Akhilesh Yadav and eventually merged into BSP.  SP-INC alliance consolidate a good amount of the Muslim vote and the PECP vote collapsed.  NISHAD which was a Nishad caste party made its appearance mostly in Purvanchal.  Of course BJP alliance won a massive majority by cutting into Upper Caste, OBC and Dalit votes across the board.

In 2022, SP and INC ended their alliance while SP roped in SBSP from BJP+, RLD, Western UP Maurya  based MD, JP(S), and AD(K).  BJP kept AD(S) as it ally and roped in NISAHD as its ally.  The result was a 2 party polarization of a significant BJP victory with a reduced majority.

[jaichind]

UP result analysis (part 2 of 4)

Looking at results of each subregion



Western UP-Jat (68 seats)

            2022   2022                       2017      2017                     2012       2012
            Vote    Seats                       Vote      Seats                     Vote       Seats
BJP     48.66%    53        BJP         45.04%    59            BJP      16.46%       11
SP+    33.05%    15        SP+         14.52%     3            SP        20.73%      16
INC       1.89%     0        INC            8.34%     2            INC+    23.08%      15
BSP    14.37%      0        BSP         23.21%      3            BSP      29.29%      26
                                     RLD           6.51%      1           PECP      1.34%        0
                                                                                  JKP         2.45%       0

RLD is strong here due to Jats but INC SP has strength here as well due to the high number of Muslims.  BSP leader Mayawati is from this area so BSP is also strong here and also gets some Muslim votes as well.  

In 2012 INC-RLD hoped to get the Muslims to vote for INC along with the RLD Jat vote to win here.  It did not work as it merely splintered the vote and a good part of the Muslim vote went to SP and BSP.  JKP eating into the BJP vote cut into BJP's chances to benefit from the splintering of the vote.

In 2013 there were massive Jat-Muslim riots and as result, the Jat vote went hard for BJP in 2017.  The Dalit vote also went hard for BJP and BSP splitting the SP-INC alliance hoped for Muslim consolidation led to a massive BJP landslide in 2017.

In 2022 with Jat farm protest and hopes Jat-Muslim relationships are on the mend SP-RLD hoped to combine Jat-Muslim vote to defeat BJP.  The plan failed.  Jat votes failed to be transferred to SP (voting for BJP in many cases) while Muslims vote failed to transfer to RLD voting for BSP in many cases) while the Dalit vote continue to take an anti-Jat consolidation around BJP.  The result was the BJP losses from 2017 were far less than what SP-RLD hoped.



Western UP-Yadav (29 seats)

            2022   2022                       2017      2017                     2012       2012
            Vote    Seats                       Vote      Seats                     Vote       Seats
BJP+   44.29%    19        BJP         42.37%    23            BJP       14.67%        1
SP+    41.49%    10        SP           33.72%     6             SP       37.84%       25
INC       0.68%     0                                                      INC+      6.90%        0
BSP    10.89%      0        BSP         19.09%      0            BSP      25.35%        2
                                     MD           0.85%      0             MD        2.83%        0
                                                                                  JKP        5.58%        0
                                                                                  SP reb    0.61%        1

This region has a high concentration of Yadavs and INC has historically been very weak here.  MD has some strength here with Maurya.

In 2012 the SP swept this area due to the anti-Yadav vote being split between BSP and BJP.  JKP's strong performance meant that BSP was seen as the main anti-Yadav party.  Maurya-based MD also got some votes here.

In 2017 INC did not contest here as part of its alliance with SP but due to the Akhilesh Yadav-Shipal Yadav civil war even Yadav votes defected to BJP as well as the Dalit vote shifting to BJP leading to a strong BJP win here despite the Yadav numbers here.

For 2022 the Yadav civil war was over and SP roped in MD to try to get the Maurya vote to add to the Yadav and Muslim vote to sweep this region.  The result was a failure for SP.  BJP still won this area due to a anti-Yadav consolidation of around BJP cutting into the BSP Dalit base.  Also, MD alliance failed to shift the Maurya over to SP as BJP already ate up most of those votes in 2017.



Rohilkhand-West (33 seats)

            2022   2022                       2017      2017                     2012       2012
            Vote    Seats                       Vote      Seats                     Vote       Seats
BJP+   38.52%    13        BJP         46.72%    20            BJP       17.39%        3
SP+    44.11%    20        SP           33.72%     6             SP       29.64%       20
INC       1.05%     0        INC           4.14%      0            INC+    14.49%        2
BSP    13.52%      0        BSP         20.63%      0            BSP      23.22%        7
AIMIM   1.11%     0        AIMIM       1.56%      0            MD         5.09%        0
                                     RLD          1.61%      0            PECP      2.08%        1
                                                                                  JKP         1.19%        0
                                                                                  RPD        1.23%        0


This region has a fair number of Jats Muslims and Yadavs to SP RLD tend to have some strength here.  MD also strong here with the Maurya vote.

In 2012 INC-RLD failed to get the Muslim vote despite getting the Jat vote with the result SP and BSP doing fairly well.  MD did very well here taking a good part of the  Maurya  vote from SP and BJP.  RPD is a Yadav based Noida based mafia party.

In 2017 BJP won here but with the Yadav and Muslim vote holding for SP-INC the BJP win was not a sweep even as the MD Maurya vote was eaten up by BJP.

In 2022 there was not a large anti-Yadav or anti-Muslim consolidation and BSP did a better job holding on to the Dalit vote so even with MD not delivering for SP with the Maurya vote SP was able to make some solid gains against BJP as the entire INC Muslim vote shifted to SP.



Rohilkhand-East (19 seats)

            2022   2022                       2017      2017                     2012       2012
            Vote    Seats                       Vote      Seats                     Vote       Seats
BJP      49.05%    17        BJP         45.80%    18            BJP       21.41%        5
SP       40.70%     2        SP           23.41%     1             SP        27.67%        9
INC       1.28%     0        INC           8.27%      0            INC        9.83%        0
BSP       6.97%     0        BSP         17.52%      0            BSP      21.91%        4
                                     RLD          1.11%      0             MD        2.15%        0
                                     IEMC        1.10%      0             IEMC      4.97%        1
                                                                                  JKP         1.60%        0        
                                                                                   PECP      3.52%        0

In this area, there are some amount of Muslims but a thin amount of Dalits which tends to create anti-Muslim Hindu votes for BJP with OBC and Upper Caste votes.   The lower number of Dalits also means BSP is weak here.

In 2012 SP did well with the non-Yadav OBC vote but was prevented from a sweep due to PECP and IECM winning a bunch of Muslim votes.  Of course, SP not winning the Muslim vote by a wide margin also limited BJP Hindu counter consolidation efforts.

In 2017 there was a Muslim consolidation behind SP-INC but the Hindu counter-consolidation produced a massive BJP win as the BSP Dalit vote swung toward BJP.

In 2022 the BSP vote continues to collapse with Dalits going to BJP to further counter the Muslin vote for SP.

[jaichind]

UP result analysis (part 3 of 4)

Looking at results of each subregion



Bundelkhand (19 seats)

            2022   2022                       2017      2017                     2012       2012
            Vote    Seats                       Vote      Seats                     Vote       Seats
BJP+   45.86%    16        BJP         46.49%    19            BJP      18.90%         3
SP+    30.19%      3        SP           16.13%     0            SP        25.30%        5
INC       2.22%     0        INC            9.14%     0            INC      18.58%        4
BSP    17.71%      0        BSP         22.50%      0            BSP     26.20%        7
JAP      1.17%      0                                                      MD        1.23%        0
                                                                                  
Bundelkhand is very backward and low concentrations of Muslims Jats or Yadav and have a concentration of Upper Caste, non-Yadav OBC and Dalits.  BJP historically have been strong here due to the Upper Caste and OBC votes lean BJP.

In 2012 INC ate into the BJP Upper caste vote this region turned into a 4 way tied.

In 2017 there was a massive revision to the mean as Upper Caste and OBC vote swung toward the BJP in a total sweep.

In 2022 there seems to be a partial backwards consolidation against Upper Castes with BSP being able to hold on more to the Dalit vote and SP gaining with OBCs.  BJP actually lost ground in terms of vote share and lost some seats to SP.  Bundelkhand  is an example of what might have been had BSP heen able to hold on to Dalit votes elsewhere in UP.



Awadh-West (80 seats)
 
            2022   2022                       2017      2017                     2012       2012
            Vote    Seats                       Vote      Seats                     Vote       Seats
BJP+   47.21%    68        BJP         43.65%    70            BJP      15.38%       10
SP+    37.61%    12        SP           23.24%      6            SP       31.01%       53
INC       2.69%     0        INC            5.82%     1            INC      14.36%        4
BSP       9.59%     0        BSP         21.91%      3            BSP     25.88%      13
                                                                                  PECP      3.01%        0

This region forms the core of UP and have significant amount of OBCs and Upper castes but there is not a strong tradition of backward consolidation against Upper castes which does make it easier for BJP to win.

In 2012 INC made gains with the Upper Caste vote based on its historical strength here which paved the way for a large SP win here despite some Muslim vote going to PECP.

In 2017 there was a large Upper Caste and Dalit shift toward BJP in addition to non-Yadav OBCs paving the way for a large scale BJP win despite SP-INC consolidating the Muslim vote.

In 2022 SP+ was able to make some gains with non-Yadav OBC vote but the BSP lost a bunch of Dalit votes to BJP which allowed to mostly repeat its 2017 performance.



Awadh-East (31 seats)

            2022   2022                       2017      2017                     2012       2012
            Vote    Seats                       Vote      Seats                     Vote       Seats
BJP+   39.49%    14        BJP         37.05%    22            BJP        9.15%         1
SP       38.44%    17       SP           21.92%      4            SP       37.12%       27
INC       5.31%     0        INC         10.19%      2            INC+   14.65%        2
BSP      13.64%    0        BSP         24.08%      3            BSP     24.55%      13
                                     RLD         1.46%       0            PECP      5.25%        1

This area has a strong INC tradition and the Upper Caste vote here are more evenly split between BJP and INC.  As a result this area has been an area of historical BJP weakness.

In 2012 INC gained from BJP with the Upper Caste vote even though it lost a lot of Muslim votes to SP and PECP.  This led to SP and BSP winning most of the seats here.

In 2017 SP-INC alliance did gain Muslim votes but their alliance was not complete and the BJP storm picking up OBC and Upper Caste votes led to the BJP winning a large number of seats.  BSP was able to hold on to its Dalit base here due to historical BJP weakness.

In 2022 SP was hoping to eat up the entire INC vote but INC retained some strength while BSP lost a bunch of Dalit votes to BJP.  As a result SP which had hoped to sweep this region by taking back some non-Yadav OBC votes failed to materialize but did win a bunch of seats from BJP.

[omar04]

Upcoming byelection in West Bengal's Asansol LS constituency.

https://theprint.in/politics/in-fielding-outsider-shatrughan-sinha-for-asansol-bypoll-mamata-takes-a-lesson-from-bjp/876092/

[jaichind]

UP result analysis (part 4 of 4)

Looking at results of each subregion



Purvanchal-North (36 seats)

            2022   2022                       2017      2017                     2012       2012
            Vote    Seats                       Vote      Seats                     Vote       Seats
BJP+   47.51%    33        BJP         41.38%    32            BJP      18.65%         7
SP+    29.55%      2        SP           19.26%     1            SP        26.98%      16
INC       3.39%     1        INC            6.24%     1            INC      10.24%        4
BSP    12.85%      0        BSP         21.28%      1            BSP     21.72%         6
                                     NISHAD     2.20%      0           NCP        1.49%        1
                                     PECP         1.70%      0            PECP      7.21%        2
                                     SP Rebel    1.53%     1             SBSP     1.18%        0

This region is Yogi Adityanath's base of Gorakhpur and surrounding areas.  BJP historically had limited strength here due to Gorakhpur but it was limited as forward-backward conflict limited BJP's strength.

In 2012 the Muslim vote actually shifted to PECP which cut into the SP vote and led to a splintered result.  NCP here is really a BSP splinter led by a BSP rebel.

In 2017 the Mulsim vote  shifted to SP-INC but the SP-INC alliance was incomplete which hurt them.  BSP actually was able to hold on to some of its  Dalit base but the OBC vote going to BJP along with the AD(S) and SBSP alliance led to a BJP sweep.

In 2022 the SP rebel that won in 2017 joined BJP and with Yogi Adityanath being made CM as well as roping in NISHAD in the meantime meant another surge of support for BJP and actually increased the BJP+ seat count as the SP failed to gain much OBC votes relative to 2017.  INC retained some limited strength here which further hobbled SP attempt to completely corner the Muslim vote.



Purvanchal-Center (52 seats)

            2022   2022                       2017      2017                     2012       2012
            Vote    Seats                       Vote      Seats                     Vote       Seats
BJP+   33.96%    10        BJP         35.71%    31            BJP+    11.94%        3
SP+    39.98%    38        SP+        25.36%    13            SP        33.76%      37
INC       1.86%     1        INC           4.80%      1            INC+     8.51%         3
BSP    16.93%      1        BSP         27.35%      7            BSP     27.69%         7
JDL        1.54%    2        NISHAD     1.21%      0            AD         2.29%        0
                                                                                  QED       3.55%        2
                                                                                  SBSP     3.34%         0

The BJP has been historically weak in this area.  The Muslims here are more numerous but fairly secular so Hindu-Muslim conflict is less salient than forward-backward conflict.  The is the worst of all worlds for BJP.   The Pratapgarh based mafia don party JDL has historically been aligned with SP here.

In 2012 it was mostly a SP-BSP battle with SP winning.  QED is a Muslim BSP Mau mafia don splinter which took some votes away from SP just like SBSP did the same with the Rajbhar vote which prevented a SP sweep.  BJP was very weak here and had an alliance with JP(S) to no avail.

In 2017 BJP roped in AD(S) and SBSP and won over the OBC vote leading it to victory over SP.  The SP-INC plans to corner the Muslim vote failed as QED merged back into BSP which allowed it to get some Muslim votes.  The the flip side the BSP was able to hold on to some of the Dalit vote which limited the scope of the BJP win.

In 2022 the forward-backward salience came back which led to SP being able to get some OBC votes back from BJP.  BSP was able to limit the loss of Dalit votes to BJP while the Muslim vote completely consolidated around SP (the QED faction of BSP since moved to SP.)  The result was a SP victory over BJP despite JDL going off on its own.



Purvanchal-South (36 seats)

            2022   2022                       2017      2017                     2012       2012
            Vote    Seats                       Vote      Seats                     Vote       Seats
BJP+   44.58%    30        BJP         43.28%    31            BJP      11.04%        3
SP+    35.03%      6        SP          21.00%      2            SP        28.74%      18
INC       2.99%     0        INC           6.36%      0            INC+    10.09%        4
BSP    13.11%      0        BSP         21.89%      2            BSP     26.99%         8
                                     NISHAD     1.80%     1            AD         5.37%        1
                                                                                  QED       1.04%        0
                                                                                  SBSP     0.90%         0
                                                                                  PMSP     2.94%         0
                                                                                  BJP reb  1.46%         1
                                                                                  SP reb    1.46%        1

This area has also historically been weak for BJP due to the salience of forward-backward conflict.  BJP was only strong in Varanasi but weak in the areas around it.

In 2012 it was a SP-BSP battle with SP winning but AD had a strong performance winning a bunch of Kurmi votes from SP and PMSP taking Nishad votes from SP which limited the scope of the SP win.

In 2014 Modi became the MP of Varanasi which totally changed the state of politics in this area as Upper Caste, OBC and Dalits drifted toward BJP.  In 2017 the BJP was able to rope in AD and SBSP as well as take advantage of the Modi wave to win a near sweep of this area in a total turnaround.

In 2022 the SP managed to gain some OBC votes from BJP and Muslim votes from INC and BSP while BJP made very limited gains with Dalits from BSP with SP making limited gains in seats.  The large Dalit shift from BSP to BJP mostly took place in 2017 so the BJP does not much more to gain from this region even after getting NISHAD to join the BJP alliance.

[jaichind]

Main takeaways from a regional analysis of UP results

a) SP did gain some non-Yadav OBC votes but in the broad Awadh plain, the BJP countered with gains with Dalits with limited SP gains in terms of seats.  The BJP gains with Dalit has to do with both Modi and Yogi having cross-community appeal AND the effectiveness of BJP welfare programs which seems to be shifting resources to the poor in an efficient.  This is making up for the fact that the macroeconomic environment in UP remains poor.

b) In Purvanchal and Bundelkhand the forward-backward conflict as SP hoped for did take place but the result was muted because Bundelkhand was so strong with BJP already and in Purvanchal the Modi effect limited SP gains in the Varanasi area while  Yogi Adityanath actually made gains in the Gorakhpur area.  This shows the cross-community appeal of Modi and Yogi.  Of course, Yogi has national aspirations so in a post-Modi post-Yogi era the SP will have its chance.

c) The SP strategy of Jat-Muslim unity in Western UP failed.  BJP and BSP were able to pick off Jat and Muslim votes and held the SP to very minor gains.

d) Akhilesh Yadav is still viewed as a Yadav leader (as opposed to an OBC leader) and in Yadav areas, the BJP was able to create an anti-Yadav consolidation with the support of the non-Yadav OBC vote to limited SP gains there.  The way forward for SP still has to be to find a way for Akhilesh Yadav to become an OBC leader and not just a Yadav leader.

e) The BSP model of adding the personal vote of local kingpins that pay the BSP for tickets by adding their personal vote to the BSP core vote of 20% has broken down.  BSP base is no longer 20% and more like 10% and the BJP-SP bipolar nature of politics means now you need at least 40% of the vote to win elections going forward.

f) INC is out of the game for now and perhaps forever.  Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (PGV) clearly has a support base but the INC brand is so weak that most of her supporters must have voted non-INC.  INC lost its base over the years due to the 1993 BSP alliance (Dalit base lost) and the 2017 SP alliance (Muslim base lost) but now it might need to form alliances as a junior party just to survive.

[jaichind]

Goa results map


2017 map


BJP lost ground in coastal Northern Goa but gained ground in inland areas.

[jaichind]

UP 2022 results map



UP LS 2019 assembly segments



UP 2017 results

[jaichind]

Manipur 2022 results


Manipur 2019 LS assembly segment results


Manipur 2017 results

[jaichind]

In Mumbai, there seem to be official bribe rates for construction that most builders deem too high, and are trying to lower these bribe rates.

[Frodo]

f) INC is out of the game for now and perhaps forever.  Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (PGV) clearly has a support base but the INC brand is so weak that most of her supporters must have voted non-INC.  INC lost its base over the years due to the 1993 BSP alliance (Dalit base lost) and the 2017 SP alliance (Muslim base lost) but now it might need to form alliances as a junior party just to survive.

We won't know that for sure until the 2024 elections, but if that is borne out in election results then, maybe it might be time for the Aam Aadmi Party to take up the mantle as the national opposition party to the governing BJP coalition by picking up the Congress Party's pieces.