Which gubernatorial race are Republicans more likely to win, NM or MN?

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously both of these are very challenging races for Republicans given the Democratic lean of NM/MN and unfavorable trends in urban parts of both states, but where do you think Republicans have a better chance (at least in theory)?

I think it’s NM, but it is very close and I’m not at all confident about it. Curious what you think.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

NM. Walz's opponents are complete idiots and it's not like NM voted massively to the right of MN. I think NM is a dark horse opportunity for the GOP

[President Johnson]

I'd say New Mexico.

The state just had a Republican governor until 2019 and Tim Walz strikes me as a stronger incumbent than Lujan Grisham. And Mark Ronchetti, who seems to be the Republican frontrunner, already came unexpectedly close to winning the senate seat in 2020, which was a more favorable environment for the Democrats. Not sure how strong the Republican contenders in Minnesota are.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both are gone for Rs

[Suburbia]

New Mexico

[😥]

New Mexico

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Mexico

You know these aren't rich Latinx they're poor living in Trailers Safe D Grisham is Safe

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I would choose NM here, but I still think that Republicans are far too optimistic about their fortunes there.

[Senator Incitatus]

NM due to candidate quality in both directions.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would choose NM here, but I still think that Republicans are far too optimistic about their fortunes there.

Grisham will cruise to Victory

[Chips]

NM slightly but Dems shouldn't sleep on either.

[coloradocowboi]

NM due to candidate quality in both directions.

[TDAS04]

New Mexico.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D's aren't losing either race Grisham is Latina

[Calthrina950]

New Mexico. Ronchetti seems to be a decently strong and well-liked candidate, as demonstrated by his overperformance against Lujan last year. Moreover, New Mexico has elected statewide Republicans more recently than Minnesota, Lujan-Grisham is less popular and more polarizing than Walz, and the state has the kinds of demographics-namely, working class, rural, and minority voters-who could fuel a Republican upset. Obviously, these kinds of voters exist in Minnesota as well, but the Minneapolis metropolitan area has greater influence on that state's electoral destinies than does the Alburquerque metropolitan area. And Ronchetti overperformed in Alburquerque due to his "native son" status there, and I wouldn't be surprised if he does again against Lujan-Grisham.

[beesley]

Calthrina made all the points I wanted to make. I still contend that Minnesota generally remains far safer than appearances.

[Xing]

New Mexico, but it still won't be easy for them.