POLL: PA Senate - Fetterman vs. Oz

[MargieCat]

Oz seems like a much stronger candidate than Parnell ever was.

It also seems like he is getting the nomination.

Assuming Fetterman gets the democratic nomination, does he defeat Fetterman in the general?

[Roll Roons]

I feel like Dr. Oz will either be a great candidate or a terrible one. There's no in-between.

[SnowLabrador]

Oz by 3-5 points.

[BigSerg]

Oz by 9%

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Going with Mr. Fetterman.  Mehmet Oz, a TV celebrity from New Jersey, sounds a lot like the Republicans couldn't find anyone in the state that could win and are grasping for straws.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I’m struggling to figure out why everything thinks the random talk show guy is such an electoral juggernaut.

Celebrity candidates usually are disasters and I don’t see any reason that the guy that hawks snake oil on daytime tv would be any different.

[SnowLabrador]

I’m struggling to figure out why everything thinks the random talk show guy is such an electoral juggernaut.

Celebrity candidates usually are disasters and I don’t see any reason that the guy that hawks snake oil on daytime tv would be any different.

It's not that he's an electoral juggernaut, it's that the national environment is terrible for Democrats.

[Schiff for Senate]

I feel like Dr. Oz will either be a great candidate or a terrible one. There's no in-between.

So true. I just can't see Oz performing like a generic Republican in any way. The real question is if he does better or worse than generic Republican would.

[Xing]

Oz by about 4, not because of the “candidate quality” of either, but because of the environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't seen one poll on this race it's sad

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Ask me in a month. For now I think Fetterman and I'm bearish on Oz but I'm also from the most insular state in the union.

[beesley]

I guess Oz may probably win, but Fetterman would win in a neutral environment, which we are quite far from. But I agree it could go all downhill.

[Ferguson97]

In a neutral environment, Fetterman would absolutely demolish Oz. But with a strongly pro-Republican environment, Oz wins by <5 points.

[Orser67]

I'll go with Oz. I think Fetterman is a better candidate, but sadly I would probably favor Oz over any Democrat based on how I see the 2022 mid-terms going.

[SWE]

Oz and I don't think the outcome will ever really be up in the air

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oz and I don't think the outcome will ever really be up in the air

You know Josh Shapiro is on the ballot, Fetterman is gonna win with Josh Shapiro

Oz hasn't been endorsed by Oprah Winfrey, his TV Sponsor he needs to get the Suburban vote over Fetterman

[Skill and Chance]

Tilt Fetterman.  This feels like Bernie vs. Trump but 6 years late.

[ElectionsGuy]

People are STILL predicting like 2022 is going to be a Dem-leaning environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People are STILL predicting like 2022 is going to be a Dem-leaning environment.

The Election is 336 days from now

[mtvoter]

Unbeatable titan Oz by +10 because his opponent's name is John and not Jon.

I'm very confident Fetterman is going to get wiped out in the suburbs.

[Skill and Chance]

People are STILL predicting like 2022 is going to be a Dem-leaning environment.

Not necessarily.  Fetterman could be the Rick Scott of 2022.  That's basically where I'm at.

[ElectionsGuy]

People are STILL predicting like 2022 is going to be a Dem-leaning environment.

Not necessarily.  Fetterman could be the Rick Scott of 2022.  That's basically where I'm at.

I would argue an R+3 state from 2016 going barely R in a D+8 midterm is the equivalent of an R+3 state from 2020 going barely D in a R+2 midterm (same 5 point overperformance of national swing). Anything more than R+2 nationally and it's would require an even greater overperformance, and Nelson's loss was in large part due to R trends among Hispanics that foreshadowed 2020. Dr Oz would have to screw up badly or PA would have to have an abrupt D trend somewhere, and I just don't see where or how that happens, because if anything we've only seen a slight rightward shift in PA over the last 10 years.

[Joe Republic]

I’m struggling to figure out why everything thinks the random talk show guy is such an electoral juggernaut.

Celebrity candidates usually are disasters and I don’t see any reason that the guy that hawks snake oil on daytime tv would be any different.

This absolutely should be the case in this surreal joke of a country, but I should like to draw your attention to a certain successful presidential candidate in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People are STILL predicting like 2022 is going to be a Dem-leaning environment.

Not necessarily.  Fetterman could be the Rick Scott of 2022.  That's basically where I'm at.

I would argue an R+3 state from 2016 going barely R in a D+8 midterm is the equivalent of an R+3 state from 2020 going barely D in a R+2 midterm (same 5 point overperformance of national swing). Anything more than R+2 nationally and it's would require an even greater overperformance, and Nelson's loss was in large part due to R trends among Hispanics that foreshadowed 2020. Dr Oz would have to screw up badly or PA would have to have an abrupt D trend somewhere, and I just don't see where or how that happens, because if anything we've only seen a slight rightward shift in PA over the last 10 years.

Fetterman is running with Josh Shapiro, he isn't LOSING, YOU MAY THINK SO

[Suburbia]

Fetterman+2

Very close race. Oz can compete with Black voters, and Fetterman will have to earn their votes.