Post election focus group study finds school closures, not crt, drove youngkin to victory

[sting in the rafters]

(x) doubt

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

Repost from the aftermath thread. The problem wasn't Biden-Youngkin or Northam-Youngkin, it was T-Mac not giving Biden voters a reason to show up and Youngkin's campaign giving Trump voters every reason to.

[sting in the rafters]

(x) doubt

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

Repost from the aftermath thread. The problem wasn't Biden-Youngkin or Northam-Youngkin, it was T-Mac not giving Biden voters a reason to show up and Youngkin's campaign giving Trump voters every reason to.

Can you provide a source like the other people did?

Have at it brother-man.

Even with MOE due to sample size, Biden voters only making up 48% of the recalled 2020 vote and the black vote being 16% of the electorate (compared with 20% in 2017) tells us all we need to know about which party did a better job of voter engagement.

[sting in the rafters]

(x) doubt

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

Repost from the aftermath thread. The problem wasn't Biden-Youngkin or Northam-Youngkin, it was T-Mac not giving Biden voters a reason to show up and Youngkin's campaign giving Trump voters every reason to.

Can you provide a source like the other people did?

Have at it brother-man.

Even with MOE due to sample size, Biden voters only making up 48% of the recalled 2020 vote and the black vote being 16% of the electorate (compared with 20% in 2017) tells us all we need to know about which party did a better job of voter engagement.

According to your source, independents went from Biden + 19 to Youngkin + 9

Similar to how losing independents by 9 points and the ACA having -7 approval sunk T-Mac 8 years ago? No, it didn't matter because the partisan composition was D+5 as opposed to D+2 due to the electorate being 20% black instead of the 16% earlier this month.

Now again ask yourself, is that swing more due to individual voters changing their mind, or rather D-leaning indies staying home when every single voter screen going into the election showed higher enthusiasm among conservative leaning groups?