Post election focus group study finds school closures, not crt, drove youngkin to victory

[Matty]

“These swing voters didn’t agree with what they thought the liberal position on race in schools was,” ALG Research writes in a summary report. “However, it wasn’t as salient as the fact that they felt Democrats closed their schools and didn’t feel bad about it. They also knew about his debate quote on parents; it clearly burned in and resonated with them.”

The report also notes:

School closures + COVID policy were a bigger factor than CRT. These voters were more animated talking about their dissatisfaction with their local school districts’ handling of COVID. They felt buffeted by changing and inconsistent policies and concerned about the impact on student learning loss, and there was a sense among some that Virginia was not following the science by keeping schools closed later than other states. One participant, a Biden voter, stated flat out that her vote for Youngkin “was against the party that closed the schools for so long last year.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonfavs/status/1463238343139807234

[Skunk]

Given Murphy's near upset loss in New Jersey, this explanation would make sense. Democrats are going to have find out sooner or later that their COVID policies are broadly unpopular if they want to win elections.

[jamestroll]

I told yall hundreds and hundreds of times that Virginia was far more resistant to covid measures than most Biden states! Look how modest Northam was in 2020 after June!

Local officials in nova from Manassas Park to Alexandria to Fairfax took no additional local mitigation measures. None. None.

And this winter they wont no matter how bad the winter surge gets. No mask mandates... no capacity limits.. no gathering limits.. nothing

End of day.. Virginia is still a pro business state. 90% it votes dem in 2024 but if Democrats are still pushing covid measures in 2024 it could[/could] flip.

It also wasn't a good look in fairfax to see packed bars and closed schools.

[MT Treasurer]

I’ve long had a suspicion that it is COVID more than any other issue that is fueling anger and resentment toward this administration/the current left and even driving traditionally Democratic-leaning voters away from the party. The one thing human beings are going to react more even more strongly to than divisive cultural issues in which one side in particular isn’t willing to compromise at all and has a monopoly on the public institutions/media/academia are restrictions and mandates imposed by the state that constrain them in their everyday lives (not just physically, but emotionally and psychologically). While the former will make people dislike an administration (strongly or less strongly), the latter will generate deep hatred and fear, two emotions that couldn’t be better turnout motivators for the party out of the White House. A state intervening in the lives of its citizens to the extent that we have seen and putting this kind of pressure on its citizens is quite a precedent that should never be turned into a norm, not even rhetorically. The more salient and 'felt' this issue is in 2022, the more it has the potential to break Democrats' necks.

[jamestroll]

If northam governed like NY or NJ during the pandemic
.. Trump could have had a path here in 2020.. though very narrow

[jamestroll]

Contrary to popular Afghanistan is not the reason Trumpkin won.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Why are people blaming COVID policies? There’s no mention of that in the actual PDF lol

The bigger issue is the perception that Dems care more about “social justice” than getting things done, especially since a lot of voters seem unaware of the policies that have already been passed.

• Biden is hurting, even among supporters. None of these people would have switched their vote with hindsight. They also do not necessarily blame him for ongoing problems with the delta variant, inflation, or supply chain bottlenecks. But at the same time, these 2020 Biden voters had little positive to say about him right now, and many described disappointment or a sense that he is not doing well. They were reluctant to say he’s not up to the job, but they don’t feel like he’s getting it done right now.
• Democrats have no real brand among these swing voters, whose 2020 vote was first and foremost against Trump. Most could not articulate what Democrats stand for. They could also not say what they are doing in Washington, besides fighting. They were vaguely aware of the infrastructure bill in Congress and pieces they’ve heard are in the reconciliation bill (mainly tuition forgiveness and free college). They could not define Biden as being to the left or right of the average Democrat, and mostly saw Democrats as being in tune with him. Whatever their view is of Biden is all they have to go on in judging Democrats.
• They thought Democrats are only focused on equality and fairness and not on helping people. None of these Biden voters associated our party with helping working people, the middle class, or people like them. They thought we were more focused on breaking down social barriers facing marginalized groups. They were all for helping marginalized groups, but the fact that they couldn’t point to anything we are doing to help them was deeply concerning.
• They didn’t want a bigger BBB or a smaller BBB—the only side they take in that is “stop fighting.” These Biden/Youngkin voters didn’t think Biden was more liberal or more conservative than they expected, and they also didn’t have real complaints about Democrats a) spending too much or b) cutting key programs from BBB. Their problem was that they think that we are doing nothing but fighting, when they want action on the economy.
• If we are running 2022 on “Republican candidate = Trump,” we’re getting killed. Again, this very well may have been the best arrow the McAuliffe campaign had in its quiver—the anti-vaccine stuff might not have worked, he might have been just as hard to tie to January 6 as he was to Trump, and his business record may not have resonated. That was outside the scope of these focus groups. But it’s clear that simply equating Youngkin to Trump was not credible.
• Don’t underestimate the power of a positive message that speaks to people’s every day lives. This may be an obvious point, but Glenn Youngkin tapped into a major issue (rising prices of meat + other groceries) and proposed a solution (ending the grocery tax) that showed he got the problem. They also mentioned Youngkin wanting to increase funding in schools and give parents more of a say in their education.

[coloradocowboi]

"McAuliffe was seen as old news, with no memorable accomplishments in his previous term or forward-looking agenda. These voters came across as lukewarm on him, having nothing particularly egregious to complain about but also nothing to ask for a second term of. They described his first term as “not memorable” and could not point to any significant accomplishments he had as Governor, and furthermore saw him as a “politician” who appeared disconnected from voters and did not give straight answers."

This is equally part of the problem. Republicans can get away with nominating a swamp creature because tbh their base is pliant and ready to believe whatever. We can't do this. It has far less to do with moderate/progressive than it does finding candidates with good communication skills who are relatable and personable. Obviously, this focus group focuses on the privileged cohort of well-to-do suburbanites who love to play both sides for attention (nobody get offended - this describes me and my family perfectly). But this is a problem that also affects base turnout. It's one of the worst problems facing the party IMO - the kind of people who vote in Democratic primaries are MSNBC-addled KHive types, neither particularly progressive or moderate and more tribal than both, and nominate candidates that everybody else hates.

[coloradocowboi]

Also,

"Don’t underestimate the power of a positive message that speaks to people’s every day lives. This may be an obvious point, but Glenn Youngkin tapped into a major issue (rising prices of meat + other groceries) and proposed a solution (ending the grocery tax) that showed he got the problem. They also mentioned Youngkin wanting to increase funding in schools and give parents more of a say in their education."

How on Earth are there people who think that Youngkin would have been better at funding K12 education? That is malpractice on part of the McAuliffe campaign!

[Horus]

This isn't surprising. CRT is mostly a made up Boogeyman but school closures are very real, and very harmful to the working class and minorites.

[jamestroll]

If I get all wound up about children not being in school and I do not have kids... imagine how parents with kids feel!

If I got all wound up about mass business closures and mass unemployment.. and I did not even lose my job.. imagine how business owners felt during covid and imagine how people who lost their job during covid felt.

I was screaming, kicking, yelling, whining, moaning about issues that do not impact me at all.. of course I see why there was a backlash to covid policy.

[Skill and Chance]

18 months of virtual school actually happened in parts of VA.  That was clearly bad and was known to be relatively ineffective for controlling COVID as early as halfway through. 

[PSOL]

This is wrong, only partisans cared about those two things in the ballot box, what lost suburbia and these Biden-Youngkin districts was the price of gas and the stalling of the infrastructure bill.

Had those passed sooner and had gas not risen, people would feel as if Biden purposefully made their lives better and look away from wedge issues like these.

[Hollywood]

This is wrong, only partisans cared about those two things in the ballot box, what lost suburbia and these Biden-Youngkin districts was the price of gas and the stalling of the infrastructure bill.

Had those passed sooner and had gas not risen, people would feel as if Biden purposefully made their lives better and look away from wedge issues like these.

It was a combination of the three issues: inflation, CRT, and Covid-19 policies. 

I saw a lot of Asian parents that were pissed off about the school boards. 

Hispanics were irked over Covid-19 policies and inflation.

White Suburban women were pissed about the price of food and gas rising, as well as the school board issues. 

This is evidenced by the polls that asked people to provide the most important issue during election.  The economy, schools, and crime were issues that continued to grow as triggers voter motivation and enthusiasm.  It was also evident that people were losing faith in Biden's handling of Covid-19, as voters went from +10 Biden to split on whether the President was mishandling the crisis. 

[sting in the rafters]

(x) doubt

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

Repost from the aftermath thread. The problem wasn't Biden-Youngkin or Northam-Youngkin, it was T-Mac not giving Biden voters a reason to show up and Youngkin's campaign giving Trump voters every reason to.

[Orwell]

(x) doubt

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

Repost from the aftermath thread. The problem wasn't Biden-Youngkin or Northam-Youngkin, it was T-Mac not giving Biden voters a reason to show up and Youngkin's campaign giving Trump voters every reason to.

Can you provide a source like the other people did?

[sting in the rafters]

(x) doubt

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

Repost from the aftermath thread. The problem wasn't Biden-Youngkin or Northam-Youngkin, it was T-Mac not giving Biden voters a reason to show up and Youngkin's campaign giving Trump voters every reason to.

Can you provide a source like the other people did?

Have at it brother-man.

Even with MOE due to sample size, Biden voters only making up 48% of the recalled 2020 vote and the black vote being 16% of the electorate (compared with 20% in 2017) tells us all we need to know about which party did a better job of voter engagement.

[Indy Texas]

The Democratic Party is in a place right now where:

If you question the need to keep schools closed when vaccines are available, you're a COVID-denying conspiracy theorist.

If you want your child to learn algebra instead of visiting and revisiting every single bad thing that ever happened to black people, you're a racist.

If you're frustrated by stores constantly being out of everything, and prices being higher, you're "whining" and it's not a real problem.

It is really hard for Democrats to present themselves as the party for "regular people" when they refuse to take regular people's concerns seriously.

[GregTheGreat657]

(x) doubt

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

Repost from the aftermath thread. The problem wasn't Biden-Youngkin or Northam-Youngkin, it was T-Mac not giving Biden voters a reason to show up and Youngkin's campaign giving Trump voters every reason to.

Can you provide a source like the other people did?

Have at it brother-man.

Even with MOE due to sample size, Biden voters only making up 48% of the recalled 2020 vote and the black vote being 16% of the electorate (compared with 20% in 2017) tells us all we need to know about which party did a better job of voter engagement.

According to your source, independents went from Biden + 19 to Youngkin + 9

[they don't love you like i love you]

Given Murphy's near upset loss in New Jersey, this explanation would make sense. Democrats are going to have find out sooner or later that their COVID policies are broadly unpopular if they want to win elections.

Luckily they are basically done. What can't you do now that you could do two years ago?

[sting in the rafters]

(x) doubt

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

Repost from the aftermath thread. The problem wasn't Biden-Youngkin or Northam-Youngkin, it was T-Mac not giving Biden voters a reason to show up and Youngkin's campaign giving Trump voters every reason to.

Can you provide a source like the other people did?

Have at it brother-man.

Even with MOE due to sample size, Biden voters only making up 48% of the recalled 2020 vote and the black vote being 16% of the electorate (compared with 20% in 2017) tells us all we need to know about which party did a better job of voter engagement.

According to your source, independents went from Biden + 19 to Youngkin + 9

Similar to how losing independents by 9 points and the ACA having -7 approval sunk T-Mac 8 years ago? No, it didn't matter because the partisan composition was D+5 as opposed to D+2 due to the electorate being 20% black instead of the 16% earlier this month.

Now again ask yourself, is that swing more due to individual voters changing their mind, or rather D-leaning indies staying home when every single voter screen going into the election showed higher enthusiasm among conservative leaning groups?

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

The Democratic Party is in a place right now where:

If you question the need to keep schools closed when vaccines are available, you're a COVID-denying conspiracy theorist.

If you want your child to learn algebra instead of visiting and revisiting every single bad thing that ever happened to black people, you're a racist.

If you're frustrated by stores constantly being out of everything, and prices being higher, you're "whining" and it's not a real problem.

It is really hard for Democrats to present themselves as the party for "regular people" when they refuse to take regular people's concerns seriously.

You had me and then you lost me, lol