Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/BloombergTV/status/1512511452313276417
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1512527965007106050
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1512497539517407237
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1512415157129035779

[Omega21]

Since this seems so senseless from a military standpoint (the killing of civilians trying to escape from territory Russia wants, would seem like a "good" thing for Russia rather than a bad thing), what immediately popped into my mind was was this attack deliberate or an accident, because Russia just does not have the technology to do precision stuff, particularly since its best and brightest, if not insane or sociopaths, would have the goal of getting out of the  hell hole that is Russia, job one.
 

The Tochka-U (late 80s/early 90s model) that was used here has a Circular error probable of 95 m.

That should basically mean that

if a given munitions design has a CEP of 100 m, when 100 munitions are targeted at the same point, 50 will fall within a circle with a radius of 100 m around their average impact point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_error_probable

This obviously does not include malfunctions, or UA AA (if they have such capabilities in this area).

IMO, this does not seem deliberate. If they wanted to strike the infrastructure, they would have aimed at the junctions or rail line, not a waiting area in front of the station.

Also a thing to note is the inscription on the rocket, "For our children", which is commonly used by Donbas separatists, but this is less important, because even if it was them, it is still directly Russian supplied waponry.

Deliberate strike or not, the war itself is.

Putin pulled a big D move with Crimea, but now this is just an orgy of death & destruction.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1512504967009030149
https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1512548639222247426
https://twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1512470796584824837

[Storr]

The Russians are still bad at lying:

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1512556407912112133?s=20&t=Tggm1IMRlpN...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1512558276482899973?s=20&t=Tggm1IMRlpN...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1512521115981467649

[Storr]

7,000? oof.

https://twitter.com/adegrandpre/status/1512541832990896136?s=20&t=wS6Dyq33bb...

[Mopsus]

Estimation of frontlines:
https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1512220132348727297

After completely giving up their territory in the north, Russian gains now look downright pathetic, considering they’re 6 weeks and 10,000 dead into the war.

[Storr]

Estimation of frontlines:
https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1512220132348727297

After completely giving up their territory in the north, Russian gains now look downright pathetic, considering they’re 6 weeks and 10,000 dead into the war.

It's particularly pathetic around Donetsk. I wouldn't have believed you if you told me 6 weeks into a Russian invasion of Ukraine that Avdiivka, which is 10 miles from downtown Donetsk, would still be under Ukrainian control.

Also random thought, but after the war should be renamed Donetsk to Zelensky.
The US had the right idea when naming coal basins after nearly regions and cities, instead of the other way around.

[Estrella]

Estimation of frontlines:
https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1512220132348727297

After completely giving up their territory in the north, Russian gains now look downright pathetic, considering they’re 6 weeks and 10,000 dead into the war.

It's particularly pathetic around Donetsk. I wouldn't have believed you if you told me 6 weeks into a Russian invasion of Ukraine that Avdiivka, which is 10 miles from downtown Donetsk, would still be under Ukrainian control.

Also random thought, but after the war should be renamed Donetsk to Zelensky.
The US had the right idea when naming coal basins after nearly regions and cities, instead of the other way around.

Minor nitpick: Donetsk is actually named after the Donets river (as is the Donets Basin), but I agree with you point.

_{Donetsk was in fact founded by a Welsh businessman who named it after himself, so until 1924 the city was called Hughesovka. Seriously.}

[Person Man]

Since this seems so senseless from a military standpoint (the killing of civilians trying to escape from territory Russia wants, would seem like a "good" thing for Russia rather than a bad thing), what immediately popped into my mind was was this attack deliberate or an accident, because Russia just does not have the technology to do precision stuff, particularly since its best and brightest, if not insane or sociopaths, would have the goal of getting out of the  hell hole that is Russia, job one.
 

The Tochka-U (late 80s/early 90s model) that was used here has a Circular error probable of 95 m.

That should basically mean that

if a given munitions design has a CEP of 100 m, when 100 munitions are targeted at the same point, 50 will fall within a circle with a radius of 100 m around their average impact point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_error_probable

This obviously does not include malfunctions, or UA AA (if they have such capabilities in this area).

IMO, this does not seem deliberate. If they wanted to strike the infrastructure, they would have aimed at the junctions or rail line, not a waiting area in front of the station.

Also a thing to note is the inscription on the rocket, "For our children", which is commonly used by Donbas separatists, but this is less important, because even if it was them, it is still directly Russian supplied waponry.

Deliberate strike or not, the war itself is.

Putin pulled a big D move with Crimea, but now this is just an orgy of death & destruction.

This is Hitler and Dahlmer level sh**t.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Donetsk was in fact founded by a Welsh businessman who named it after himself, so until 1924 the city was called Hughesovka. Seriously.

They should bring that name back.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ukraine left me depressed and exhaused today. Saw the first major mainstream news article that essentially concluded "yup, it's probably genocide". And this seems to be backed up with stories like this...


https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1512459498098671620

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1512521115981467649

NATO is not responsible for this wtf.

[Storr]

A glorious 35 nation strong NATO is now closer than ever to reality! (Ukraine, Finland, Sweden, Georgia, and Bosnia) Thank you Russia. https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1512575172263432200?s=20&t=5GTtHOFmXSF...

[NOVA Green]

Will this be enough for Russia to sustain gains in Donbas?

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1512516030073081860?s=20&t=L8zpqq...

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Ukraine army updated tonight that the Russian advance out of Izumi clashed with Ukraine resistance and was stopped in its tracks once again showing the Donbas offensive is not likely to yield any victory for Putin let along one by May 9th. Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine hold the town of Belozerka which puts them just outside Kherson
https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1512641948812726279
https://mobile.twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1512404833709535234

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1512562514415869960
The Kherson rumors seem to be confirmed

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1512715430028320768

[CumbrianLefty]

Kherson is still firmly in Russian hands. The only activity by Ukrainians in the oblast has been in the northern part.

Nobody on here, at least, has claimed otherwise.

On the other hand, reports Ukrainian forces are getting ever closer appear to be correct.

[rc18]

What I don't understand is why NATO is not training Ukrainians right now to use Patriot SAM.

There are only so many S-300 SAM left to give.

The US won't give Ukraine Patriots because they don't want to risk them being captured.

Patriots are also ridiculously expensive for what they are, the US isn't going to give them away. I mean they aren't even giving Slovakia a Patriot battery in return for their S-300, just temporarily operating one while the Slovaks find a replacement.

The West's ground-based air defence systems in general are not all that capable. They're really designed for short to medium range protection of specific high priority targets like airfields and army bases. They aren't for long-range area denial of medium to high altitude threats. So even if the West wanted to give Ukraine such systems they wouldn't be as much use as those like the S-300.

Once the S-300s run out it's over for effective air defence.

[Yoda]

7,000? oof.

https://twitter.com/adegrandpre/status/1512541832990896136?s=20&t=wS6Dyq33bb...

There could be 7 million young russian bodies decomposing on Ukrainian streets getting eaten by rats and Putin would not care one bit. As long as he's gobbling up territory and resources, and butchering civilians for sport, he's happy.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What I don't understand is why NATO is not training Ukrainians right now to use Patriot SAM.

There are only so many S-300 SAM left to give.

The US won't give Ukraine Patriots because they don't want to risk them being captured.

Patriots are also ridiculously expensive for what they are, the US isn't going to give them away. I mean they aren't even giving Slovakia a Patriot battery in return for their S-300, just temporarily operating one while the Slovaks find a replacement.

The West's ground-based air defence systems in general are not all that capable. They're really designed for short to medium range protection of specific high priority targets like airfields and army bases. They aren't for long-range area denial of medium to high altitude threats. So even if the West wanted to give Ukraine such systems they wouldn't be as much use as those like the S-300.

Once the S-300s run out it's over for effective air defence.

It is broadly true that the USA historically invested less in AD than the USSR, but there are a fair few European/joint American-European systems that would do much more for Ukraine than MANPADS.

A few people in the know have repeatedly referred to NASAMS in particular, which would at least provide medium-range air defence and which Ukraine has asked for. Like all modern AA, it uses sensitive radar technology, but it has previously been modified to use older radars (N.B. it’s not public how effective NASAMS was with this modification), and it’s much cheaper than the Patriot because it’s ammunition is a large, ageing stock of air-to-air missiles which are likely to go unused in the long run.

It would come with significant training and logistical issues, which is why training should already have begun outside Ukraine even if suppliers aren’t confident that they’ll eventually give the system to Ukraine. This also applies to fighter jets, which have historically been the bulk of Western “air defence.”

It’s also worth mentioning that there are other ex-Soviet/Russian systems besides the S-300, many of which are still operated by European allies of Ukraine.

[CumbrianLefty]

7,000? oof.

https://twitter.com/adegrandpre/status/1512541832990896136?s=20&t=wS6Dyq33bb...

There could be 7 million young russian bodies decomposing on Ukrainian streets getting eaten by rats and Putin would not care one bit. As long as he's gobbling up territory and resources, and butchering civilians for sport, he's happy.

Well currently he is doing a rather better job of the latter than the former.

[Yoda]

7,000? oof.

https://twitter.com/adegrandpre/status/1512541832990896136?s=20&t=wS6Dyq33bb...

There could be 7 million young russian bodies decomposing on Ukrainian streets getting eaten by rats and Putin would not care one bit. As long as he's gobbling up territory and resources, and butchering civilians for sport, he's happy.

Well currently he is doing a rather better job of the latter than the former.

Most definitely. Although one could reasonably make the argument that he has conquered an entire country in Belarus without firing a shot, courtesy of his puppet Lukashenko.

[rc18]

What I don't understand is why NATO is not training Ukrainians right now to use Patriot SAM.

There are only so many S-300 SAM left to give.

The US won't give Ukraine Patriots because they don't want to risk them being captured.

Patriots are also ridiculously expensive for what they are, the US isn't going to give them away. I mean they aren't even giving Slovakia a Patriot battery in return for their S-300, just temporarily operating one while the Slovaks find a replacement.

The West's ground-based air defence systems in general are not all that capable. They're really designed for short to medium range protection of specific high priority targets like airfields and army bases. They aren't for long-range area denial of medium to high altitude threats. So even if the West wanted to give Ukraine such systems they wouldn't be as much use as those like the S-300.

Once the S-300s run out it's over for effective air defence.

It is broadly true that the USA historically invested less in AD than the USSR, but there are a fair few European/joint American-European systems that would do much more for Ukraine than MANPADS.

A few people in the know have repeatedly referred to NASAMS in particular, which would at least provide medium-range air defence and which Ukraine has asked for. Like all modern AA, it uses sensitive radar technology, but it has previously been modified to use older radars (N.B. it’s not public how effective NASAMS was with this modification), and it’s much cheaper than the Patriot because it’s ammunition is a large, ageing stock of air-to-air missiles which are likely to go unused in the long run.

It would come with significant training and logistical issues, which is why training should already have begun outside Ukraine even if suppliers aren’t confident that they’ll eventually give the system to Ukraine. This also applies to fighter jets, which have historically been the bulk of Western “air defence.”

It’s also worth mentioning that there are other ex-Soviet/Russian systems besides the S-300, many of which are still operated by European allies of Ukraine.

NASAMS is OK, but it still will be hard to support offensive operations in the South with it, even if they managed to acquire enough systems. The other ex-Soviet systems are at most medium range fare that is similar to Western batteries like NASAMS.

Even if the Eastern European countries give up what is left of their ex-Soviet systems (which is being damaged by the US taking the piss and driving a hard bargain in backfilling capability), it isn't a long term - or even medium term - solution. The numbers are too small and attrition too high.

Despite all the wibbling about pilot training, It's hard to see how Ukraine can maintain a realistic air defence without jets like the F-16. That's just how NATO doctrine is set up.