Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

George Kennan in 1998 as someone in the Putin camp

...

Yes, of course, Putin decided to annex Ukraine (the place that is not really a country and was part of Rus back in the Middle Ages), because of NATO expansion. Garbage. I wonder what Kennan would say now. All we have now is that fossil Kissinger, and his schtick is as a PRC symp, so he's busy.

[Woody]

UK MoD now blames "weeds and shrubs" for slow Ukraine advance
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2nJwsPbUAAnbrH?format=jpg&name=small

What do you expect? Last major war they fought was against 19-year old Argentine conscripts in some rocky island. Probably hard for them to imagine a war of this magnitude.

[oldtimer]

George Kennan in 1998 as someone in the Putin camp

...

Yes, of course, Putin decided to annex Ukraine (the place that is not really a country and was part of Rus back in the Middle Ages), because of NATO expansion. Garbage. I wonder what Kennan would say now. All we have now is that fossil Kissinger, and his schtick is as a PRC symp, so he's busy.

I believe their problem was having only Poland in, but not Russia in.

America invited both Greece and Turkey in NATO at the same time, because it knew that inviting only one guaranteed war with the other.

Same reason for having Britain, France, and Germany on the same team.

So inviting only Poland in NATO, meant war with Russia down the line.

[Torie]

George Kennan in 1998 as someone in the Putin camp

...

Yes, of course, Putin decided to annex Ukraine (the place that is not really a country and was part of Rus back in the Middle Ages), because of NATO expansion. Garbage. I wonder what Kennan would say now. All we have now is that fossil Kissinger, and his schtick is as a PRC symp, so he's busy.

I believe their problem was having only Poland in, but not Russia in.

America invited both Greece and Turkey in NATO at the same time, because it knew that inviting only one guaranteed war with the other.

Same reason for having Britain, France, and Germany on the same team.

So inviting only Poland in NATO, meant war with Russia down the line.

Russia wanted to join NATO?  Anyway, the idea that Putin went wild because Poland was in NATO is equally incredible.

[oldtimer]

UK MoD now blames "weeds and shrubs" for slow Ukraine advance
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2nJwsPbUAAnbrH?format=jpg&name=small

What do you expect? Last major war they fought was against 19-year old Argentine conscripts in some rocky island. Probably hard for them to imagine a war of this magnitude.

The Falklands War was great victory for Britain.

Imagine having to invade a place on the other side of the world in the middle of an icy ocean in winter, while the other side was nearby and already entrenched.

All that during a major economic and political crisis, with millions unemployed and most cities in ruins, victory gave people hope and pride when they had none.

Russia has it easy, it's right next door and their economy is not in total shambles.
It's just that Putin is not as ruthless or determined as Thatcher, to "sink the Belgrano" and win.

[Torie]

More on Russian labor issues:

Russia is resorting to desperate measures to recruit soldiers

Trickery and coercion are the Kremlin’s methods

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/08/01/russia-is-resorting-to-desperate-measures-to-recruit-soldiers

Putin is getting desperate. I copy and paste the final paragraph:

“One limiting factor in the mobilisation is the number of training centres. Even more acute is the shortage of officers. This is why the Kremlin raised the age of former professionals who can be called up to the age of 65. Pavel Luzin, a visiting scholar at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, says that “they are combing through the last Soviet generation.”

Potential cannon fodder of Russia:

Lek! Leka!

[oldtimer]

George Kennan in 1998 as someone in the Putin camp

...

Yes, of course, Putin decided to annex Ukraine (the place that is not really a country and was part of Rus back in the Middle Ages), because of NATO expansion. Garbage. I wonder what Kennan would say now. All we have now is that fossil Kissinger, and his schtick is as a PRC symp, so he's busy.

I believe their problem was having only Poland in, but not Russia in.

America invited both Greece and Turkey in NATO at the same time, because it knew that inviting only one guaranteed war with the other.

Same reason for having Britain, France, and Germany on the same team.

So inviting only Poland in NATO, meant war with Russia down the line.

Russia wanted to join NATO?  Anyway, the idea that Putin went wild because Poland was in NATO is equally incredible.

It's a matter of long-term foreign policy.

If 2 sides are inevitably going to go into conflict and you don't want to get drawn into it, you either stay away or invite both in to play referee.

In the case of Greece and Turkey : Cyprus and the Aegean.
In the case of Poland and Russia : Eastern Europe.

So if America wanted to avoid getting into a war it had to choose between inviting none or both.

In 1998 it was perfectly possible to invite both.
 
Now Poland will always veto, and there will always be conflict between Russia and Poland over Eastern Europe, which will drag NATO and the EU in even if it's other members don't want to.

[Torie]

George Kennan in 1998 as someone in the Putin camp

...

Yes, of course, Putin decided to annex Ukraine (the place that is not really a country and was part of Rus back in the Middle Ages), because of NATO expansion. Garbage. I wonder what Kennan would say now. All we have now is that fossil Kissinger, and his schtick is as a PRC symp, so he's busy.

I believe their problem was having only Poland in, but not Russia in.

America invited both Greece and Turkey in NATO at the same time, because it knew that inviting only one guaranteed war with the other.

Same reason for having Britain, France, and Germany on the same team.

So inviting only Poland in NATO, meant war with Russia down the line.

Russia wanted to join NATO?  Anyway, the idea that Putin went wild because Poland was in NATO is equally incredible.

It's a matter of long-term foreign policy.

If 2 sides are inevitably going to go into conflict and you don't want to get drawn into it, you either stay away or invite both in to play referee.

In the case of Greece and Turkey : Cyprus and the Aegean.
In the case of Poland and Russia : Eastern Europe.

So if America wanted to avoid getting into a war it had to choose between inviting none or both.

In 1998 it was perfectly possible to invite both.
 
Now Poland will always veto, and there will always be conflict between Russia and Poland over Eastern Europe, which will drag NATO and the EU in even if it's other members don't want to.

Poland covets Russian territory, and a bunch of Russians living in an expanded Poland? Who knew?

[oldtimer]

More on Russian labor issues:

Russia is resorting to desperate measures to recruit soldiers

Trickery and coercion are the Kremlin’s methods

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/08/01/russia-is-resorting-to-desperate-measures-to-recruit-soldiers

Putin is getting desperate. I copy and paste the final paragraph:

“One limiting factor in the mobilisation is the number of training centres. Even more acute is the shortage of officers. This is why the Kremlin raised the age of former professionals who can be called up to the age of 65. Pavel Luzin, a visiting scholar at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, says that “they are combing through the last Soviet generation.”

Potential cannon fodder of Russia:

Lek! Leka!

That's what I find weird in this War.

Both sides are estimated to have relatively very low casualty figures by NATO, yet both sides are reported to have manpower shortages.

[oldtimer]

George Kennan in 1998 as someone in the Putin camp

...

Yes, of course, Putin decided to annex Ukraine (the place that is not really a country and was part of Rus back in the Middle Ages), because of NATO expansion. Garbage. I wonder what Kennan would say now. All we have now is that fossil Kissinger, and his schtick is as a PRC symp, so he's busy.

I believe their problem was having only Poland in, but not Russia in.

America invited both Greece and Turkey in NATO at the same time, because it knew that inviting only one guaranteed war with the other.

Same reason for having Britain, France, and Germany on the same team.

So inviting only Poland in NATO, meant war with Russia down the line.

Russia wanted to join NATO?  Anyway, the idea that Putin went wild because Poland was in NATO is equally incredible.

It's a matter of long-term foreign policy.

If 2 sides are inevitably going to go into conflict and you don't want to get drawn into it, you either stay away or invite both in to play referee.

In the case of Greece and Turkey : Cyprus and the Aegean.
In the case of Poland and Russia : Eastern Europe.

So if America wanted to avoid getting into a war it had to choose between inviting none or both.

In 1998 it was perfectly possible to invite both.
 
Now Poland will always veto, and there will always be conflict between Russia and Poland over Eastern Europe, which will drag NATO and the EU in even if it's other members don't want to.

Poland covets Russian territory, and a bunch of Russians living in an expanded Poland? Who knew?

It's called "sphere of influence",  not necessary direct territorial control.

[Torie]

All I can say is too many delusional paranoid sociopathic power trippers who played way too much Risk as kids have way too much power, which is why this planet is far closer to the fictive hell than heaven, imo. It's all f'ing crazy to wage war and kill and wreck the lives of citizens, yours and the foe, because you want to rule people who hate you, or "influence" them. The problem with NATO in hindsight is it thought the planet where it counted had gone sane post USSR and Mao. Wrong! It's as toxic as it has ever been. Our species sucks.

[Virginiá]

UK MoD now blames "weeds and shrubs" for slow Ukraine advance
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2nJwsPbUAAnbrH?format=jpg&name=small

It literally says "one factor." Also, are you saying terrain and geography doesn't matter in a war? Last I checked, armies still moved primarily on land. I wouldn't personally rank unchecked growth high on the list of factors working against Ukraine, but it's worth putting on a list. This is something that works in a defender's favor, regardless of the combatant. Anything that makes you move slower and not as easily spot obstacles and mines is good for the defender.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Although the hot phase lasted only a month, this war was in the style that Putin usually shows — a low-intensity conflict with no apparent end, and gradually disappeared only by 1990. But even a short hot phase inflicted monstrous and war-criminal damage on the fraternal Vietnamese nation. Also, the Maoists used the Chinese diaspora in Vietnam for espionage, intelligence, reconnaissance, sabotage, nationalist riots, etc.

Actually, nope. The PRC had a hostile attitude towards the Chinese diaspora in Southeast Asia until the 1980s. They feared the diaspora was a potential reserve of counterrevolutionaries, especially since the diaspora in non-Communist countries retained their loyalty to the KMT in Taiwan. Those in China with relatives abroad were also denounced as counterrevolutionaries. In the Communist countries, the Chinese diaspora were especially targeted because they were a wealthy minority who could be even more easily denounced as spies, counterrevolutionaries, saboteurs, and so forth. The propaganda was so successful that it convinced an anti-communist Russian-speaker in Kazakhstan over 40 years later. The changing attitude came in the 80s because getting rich became glorious, and the diaspora was seen as a source of foreign capital.

Hence, Mao was hostile towards the Chinese diaspora as he feared it could threaten his power; whereas Putin seeks to use the Russian diaspora to further his power. The two cannot be more opposite.

Very useful information, with which I largely agree, but I must note that Mao died in 1976, and the Sino-Vietnamese War began in 1979, and after 1979, as you know, those same eighties followed, with the changes which you said, and that was the period of the PRC's hybrid war against Vietnam.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

George Kennan in 1998 as someone in the Putin camp

...

Yes, of course, Putin decided to annex Ukraine (the place that is not really a country and was part of Rus back in the Middle Ages), because of NATO expansion. Garbage. I wonder what Kennan would say now. All we have now is that fossil Kissinger, and his schtick is as a PRC symp, so he's busy.

I believe their problem was having only Poland in, but not Russia in.

America invited both Greece and Turkey in NATO at the same time, because it knew that inviting only one guaranteed war with the other.

Same reason for having Britain, France, and Germany on the same team.

So inviting only Poland in NATO, meant war with Russia down the line.

Russia wanted to join NATO?  Anyway, the idea that Putin went wild because Poland was in NATO is equally incredible.

It's a matter of long-term foreign policy.

If 2 sides are inevitably going to go into conflict and you don't want to get drawn into it, you either stay away or invite both in to play referee.

In the case of Greece and Turkey : Cyprus and the Aegean.
In the case of Poland and Russia : Eastern Europe.

So if America wanted to avoid getting into a war it had to choose between inviting none or both.

In 1998 it was perfectly possible to invite both.
 
Now Poland will always veto, and there will always be conflict between Russia and Poland over Eastern Europe, which will drag NATO and the EU in even if it's other members don't want to.

In fact, NATO is not capable of preventing an armed conflict between its members. Türkiye and Greece have not yet attacked each other just because their government does not yet have such mad bastards and in such concentration as in the Russian government.

[2952-0-0]

Very useful information, with which I largely agree, but I must note that Mao died in 1976, and the Sino-Vietnamese War began in 1979, and after 1979, as you know, those same eighties followed, with the changes which you said, and that was the period of the PRC's hybrid war against Vietnam.

Here again, this reveals that people should learn at least the basics of what they comment on, to avoid making a fool of themselves.

The Chinese minority in Vietnam was actually ethnically cleansed after the fall of Saigon. Those in the south crammed onto boats and, if they were lucky, found refuge in the West. Those in the north fled across the border, where they lived as refugees until - eventually - they were given PRC citizenship. Official Vietnamese Communist propaganda claimed that the remaining Chinese minorities were acting as stooges of PRC - and implicitly US - imperialists, but that was as plausible as Soviet propaganda accusing its Jewish population of being Zionists who were undermining socialism. The trope that the Chinese diaspora have loyalties to their "native" land is as dangerous and sensitive as the trope accusing Jews throughout history.

In any case, the wealthy Chinese diaspora that had the capital and technology to invest in the PRC in the 80s had to, by definition, come from non-communist countries. Vietnam in the 80s was a basketcase run by apparatchiks who were Sovietizing an otherwise wealthy land to the brink of famine.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

In any case, the wealthy Chinese diaspora that had the capital and technology to invest in the PRC in the 80s had to, by definition, come from non-communist countries. Vietnam in the 80s was a basketcase run by apparatchiks who were Sovietizing an otherwise wealthy land to the brink of famine.

Right. I don't understand why you are obsessed with the wealth of the Chinese diaspora when this issue is irrelevant to the notorious Hoa.

Here again, this reveals that people should learn at least the basics of what they comment on, to avoid making a fool of themselves.

The Chinese minority in Vietnam was actually ethnically cleansed after the fall of Saigon. Those in the south crammed onto boats and, if they were lucky, found refuge in the West. Those in the north fled across the border, where they lived as refugees until - eventually - they were given PRC citizenship. Official Vietnamese Communist propaganda claimed that the remaining Chinese minorities were acting as stooges of PRC - and implicitly US - imperialists, but that was as plausible as Soviet propaganda accusing its Jewish population of being Zionists who were undermining socialism. The trope that the Chinese diaspora have loyalties to their "native" land is as dangerous and sensitive as the trope accusing Jews throughout history.

If you want to take this position regardless of historical evidence, then you have to extend your morality to the Russian collaborators of the Kremlin in Ukraine. Welcome.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Most Slovaks don’t want the next government to continue with the military support of Ukraine, a poll showed less than two months before early elections are held.  

The survey by AKO agency that interviewed 1,000 people between July 24 and July 28, showed that 52% of respondents were against further military assistance to Ukraine, while 43% said the new cabinet should continue providing it.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1687368628423860224

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1687359129508016128

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/03/europe/ukraine-russia-zaporizhzhia-advance-intl/index.html

"Ukraine says density of Russian mines is ‘insane’ as it plays down counteroffensive expectations"

[jaichind]

Due to revisions to Russia's 2021 GDP numbers the latest World Bank PPP report has Russia as 5th largest economy in the world in 2022 as opposed to Germany despite a clear 2022 Russia economic contraction.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/Reemus22/status/1687387617430540288

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/albir2024/status/1687377904521338880?s=12
https://vxtwitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1687467254668042240?s=20
Russia is getting hammered in Urozhaine right now

[Florida Man for Crime]

More on Russian labor issues:

Russia is resorting to desperate measures to recruit soldiers

Trickery and coercion are the Kremlin’s methods

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/08/01/russia-is-resorting-to-desperate-measures-to-recruit-soldiers

Putin is getting desperate. I copy and paste the final paragraph:

“One limiting factor in the mobilisation is the number of training centres. Even more acute is the shortage of officers. This is why the Kremlin raised the age of former professionals who can be called up to the age of 65. Pavel Luzin, a visiting scholar at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, says that “they are combing through the last Soviet generation.”

Potential cannon fodder of Russia:

Lek! Leka!

That's what I find weird in this War.

Both sides are estimated to have relatively very low casualty figures by NATO, yet both sides are reported to have manpower shortages.

Modern warfare is a lot more equipment and firepower intensive than earlier wars like WW2. So the casualties are numerically low compared to WW2, but each individual casualty and piece of equipment lost has a greater effect on capabilities.

As for difficulties with recruitment and training, the reason why Russia can't train recruits well is first of all that he Russian army does not have NCOs, and secondly is that most of the experienced people who could have trained new recruits were either already killed in Ukraine early on when Russia was trying to take Kyiv and Odesa etc, or are needed fighting in Ukraine. In addition to not having NCOs, Russia has lost a lot of officers needed for training and organization because Ukraine has effectively targeted them with drones, HIMARS, etc.

Difficulties with outright manpower for the army, on the other hand, are political. There are plenty of Russian males of military age that could be conscripted, but Putin is reluctant to forcibly mobilize too many. And in particular, he is reluctant to forcibly mobilize ethnic Russians, in particular ones from major urban areas like Moscow and St. Petersburg, because Putin is afraid of political unrest (especially in Moscow). While there are plenty of ethnic Russians left, the tap of prime military age males has started to go dry on Buryats, Avars, Tatars, and other ethnic minorities which Putin considers more expendable, and whose families do not live in places from which they could effectively organize meaningful protests or uprisings.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More on Russian labor issues:

Russia is resorting to desperate measures to recruit soldiers

Trickery and coercion are the Kremlin’s methods

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/08/01/russia-is-resorting-to-desperate-measures-to-recruit-soldiers

Putin is getting desperate. I copy and paste the final paragraph:

“One limiting factor in the mobilisation is the number of training centres. Even more acute is the shortage of officers. This is why the Kremlin raised the age of former professionals who can be called up to the age of 65. Pavel Luzin, a visiting scholar at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, says that “they are combing through the last Soviet generation.”

Potential cannon fodder of Russia:

Lek! Leka!

That's what I find weird in this War.

Both sides are estimated to have relatively very low casualty figures by NATO, yet both sides are reported to have manpower shortages.

Modern warfare is a lot more equipment and firepower intensive than earlier wars like WW2. So the casualties are numerically low compared to WW2, but each individual casualty and piece of equipment lost has a greater effect on capabilities.

As for difficulties with recruitment and training, the reason why Russia can't train recruits well is first of all that he Russian army does not have NCOs, and secondly is that most of the experienced people who could have trained new recruits were either already killed in Ukraine early on when Russia was trying to take Kyiv and Odesa etc, or are needed fighting in Ukraine. In addition to not having NCOs, Russia has lost a lot of officers needed for training and organization because Ukraine has effectively targeted them with drones, HIMARS, etc.

Difficulties with outright manpower for the army, on the other hand, are political. There are plenty of Russian males of military age that could be conscripted, but Putin is reluctant to forcibly mobilize too many. And in particular, he is reluctant to forcibly mobilize ethnic Russians, in particular ones from major urban areas like Moscow and St. Petersburg, because Putin is afraid of political unrest (especially in Moscow). While there are plenty of ethnic Russians left, the tap of prime military age males has started to go dry on Buryats, Avars, Tatars, and other ethnic minorities which Putin considers more expendable, and whose families do not live in places from which they could effectively organize meaningful protests or uprisings.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gosuslugi
Putin has the means to get the soldiers he wants.
But what is the price for it?