Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Straight outta Bakhmut, village by village...

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1677653720090263552?s=20

[The Mikado]

Thoughts?

The person making this vid probably doesn’t mean it in the same way some jerk vatnik like CodePink or Red Velvet do but referring to this war as a “US proxy war” will never not sound douchey and come off as incredibly tone deaf and out of touch with the geopolitical reality and history between Ukraine and Russia

On the one hand there's some truth to that. On the other hand no one doubts the sincerity of the Afghans fighting the USSR but they did it armed to the teeth by the USA, or vice versa the Vietnamese and the USSR. North Vietnam would've never beaten the USA without massive amounts of Soviet and Chinese hardware and know-how, but that alone didn't do the trick, the North Vietnamese willingness to endure a decade of pounding by superior forces did. The Afghan willingness to lose TWO MILLION civilians over eight years of the USSR pulverizing any signs of civilization is what won that war, but they couldn't have done it without the American kit and intel they fought with.

That's just the nature of proxy wars. Always has been. The massive amount of foreign kit doesn't win a conflict without local willpower (if the Ukrainians ACTUALLY wanted to give up, there's nothing America could do to keep this war going even if we wanted to), but local willpower doesn't win without massive amount of foreign kit. BOTH are necessary.

[Estrella]

In lighter news, Alexander Dugin's student turned chairwoman of Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation shares her strong opinions on, er, cartoon dogs.

https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1678015293434613760?t=mSk23umhI-O6sDeznOepPw...
You know, maybe Russia wouldn't be such a sh/thole if the opposition spent time fighting Putin instead of getting theatrically offended by random teens on twitter.

[pppolitics]

TikTok brigade incoming

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1678304702209851393

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1678282764053774343

[Lord Halifax]

On the one hand there's some truth to that. On the other hand no one doubts the sincerity of the Afghans fighting the USSR but they did it armed to the teeth by the USA, or vice versa the Vietnamese and the USSR. North Vietnam would've never beaten the USA without massive amounts of Soviet and Chinese hardware and know-how, but that alone didn't do the trick, the North Vietnamese willingness to endure a decade of pounding by superior forces did. The Afghan willingness to lose TWO MILLION civilians over eight years of the USSR pulverizing any signs of civilization is what won that war, but they couldn't have done it without the American kit and intel they fought with.

That's just the nature of proxy wars. Always has been. The massive amount of foreign kit doesn't win a conflict without local willpower (if the Ukrainians ACTUALLY wanted to give up, there's nothing America could do to keep this war going even if we wanted to), but local willpower doesn't win without massive amount of foreign kit. BOTH are necessary.

but a proxy war is a war fought on behalf of or at the instigation of a foreign power, not just one with substantial assistance from a foreign power.

[Woody]

Just came back to see the state of the thread and counteroffensive. Tens of billions of dollars and state of the art equipment.. 9 villages taken back.

[jaichind]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukrainian-counteroffensive-we-take-their-trenches-but-they-take-them-back-wtk5vtxw2

"Ukrainian counteroffensive: ‘We take their trenches – but they take them back"

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/kurz-vor-dem-gipfel-blockiert-scholz-den-nato-beitritt-der-ukraine-84621944.bild.html

Bild: "The US and Germany will block NATO membership"

[emailking]

Kremlin says Wagner chief Prigozhin met with Putin after attempted rebellion

Wagner private military company chief Yevgeny Prigozhin met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin after his short-lived mutiny at the end of June, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday.

Putin held a meeting with more than 30 military commanders on June 29, and Prigozhin also attended, said Peskov during his daily call with the media.

Peskov was responding to a report in the French newspaper Liberation, which said Prigozhin had been to the Kremlin since his abortive mutiny.

“Indeed, the President held such a meeting. He invited 35 people, [including] all unit commanders and the leadership of the campaign, including Prigozhin himself.”

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-10-23/h_f8d56d1576a916100f8ccc3a9300f1b7

[The Mikado]

On the one hand there's some truth to that. On the other hand no one doubts the sincerity of the Afghans fighting the USSR but they did it armed to the teeth by the USA, or vice versa the Vietnamese and the USSR. North Vietnam would've never beaten the USA without massive amounts of Soviet and Chinese hardware and know-how, but that alone didn't do the trick, the North Vietnamese willingness to endure a decade of pounding by superior forces did. The Afghan willingness to lose TWO MILLION civilians over eight years of the USSR pulverizing any signs of civilization is what won that war, but they couldn't have done it without the American kit and intel they fought with.

That's just the nature of proxy wars. Always has been. The massive amount of foreign kit doesn't win a conflict without local willpower (if the Ukrainians ACTUALLY wanted to give up, there's nothing America could do to keep this war going even if we wanted to), but local willpower doesn't win without massive amount of foreign kit. BOTH are necessary.

but a proxy war is a war fought on behalf of or at the instigation of a foreign power, not just one with substantial assistance from a foreign power.

That description doesn't fit Korea (Kim Il-Sung wasn't fighting at Stalin's instigation, he BEGGED Stalin to attack and Stalin gave him permission fairly reluctantly), Vietnam, or Soviet War in Afghanistan. The Soviets didn't instigate North Vietnam or North Korea and the US didn't instigate the mujahideen (and anyone who tells you otherwise about the mujahideen is full of s**t).

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1678269979836268545?s=20

[Storr]

Removing the Membership Action Plan step is a big development, so it makes sense it's enough to convince Zelensky to attend the summit in Vilnius (even if it's not what he wanted):

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1678335830924881920?s=20

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1678397031574904834?s=20

[Lord Halifax]

On the one hand there's some truth to that. On the other hand no one doubts the sincerity of the Afghans fighting the USSR but they did it armed to the teeth by the USA, or vice versa the Vietnamese and the USSR. North Vietnam would've never beaten the USA without massive amounts of Soviet and Chinese hardware and know-how, but that alone didn't do the trick, the North Vietnamese willingness to endure a decade of pounding by superior forces did. The Afghan willingness to lose TWO MILLION civilians over eight years of the USSR pulverizing any signs of civilization is what won that war, but they couldn't have done it without the American kit and intel they fought with.

That's just the nature of proxy wars. Always has been. The massive amount of foreign kit doesn't win a conflict without local willpower (if the Ukrainians ACTUALLY wanted to give up, there's nothing America could do to keep this war going even if we wanted to), but local willpower doesn't win without massive amount of foreign kit. BOTH are necessary.

but a proxy war is a war fought on behalf of or at the instigation of a foreign power, not just one with substantial assistance from a foreign power.

That description doesn't fit Korea (Kim Il-Sung wasn't fighting at Stalin's instigation, he BEGGED Stalin to attack and Stalin gave him permission fairly reluctantly), Vietnam, or Soviet War in Afghanistan. The Soviets didn't instigate North Vietnam or North Korea and the US didn't instigate the mujahideen (and anyone who tells you otherwise about the mujahideen is full of s**t).

Exactly, it's a term that's used about a lot of conflicts that weren't proxy wars. Very few wars are genuine proxy wars, and the Russo-Ukrainian War certainly isn't among them. It's a pretty useless term thrown around by "realists" that like to pretend only great powers have agency. 

[Torie]

Erdogan now wants to hold Sweden NATO membership hostage to Turkey getting into the EU.
What a clown.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/10/world/europe/erdogan-turkey-sweden-nato.html

[Hindsight was 2020]

TikTok brigade incoming

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1678304702209851393

These idiots are only used for one thing and that is to shoot at retreating Russians so the high command must be concerned of troops fleeing from the flanks lol

[Storr]

What are they going to do if Ukraine joins NATO? Invade Ukraine, bomb civilians, kidnap children, and annex territory? Oh, wait...

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1678355392215019521?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1678434880542105601?s=20
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1678435912395505667?s=20
A favorite source of the vatniks with some bad news this morning lol

[Red Velvet]

Erdogan now wants to hold Sweden NATO membership hostage to Turkey getting into the EU.
What a clown.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/10/world/europe/erdogan-turkey-sweden-nato.html

Why clownish? Feels pretty logical and in line with Turkish interests. If they’re expected to be allies enough to help put more countries in NATO, surely why can’t they be allies enough to be in the EU?

Honestly, this kind of mentality is why people are driven to not support Ukraine the more Europe presses. Europeans only think others exist only when they have problems of their own and everyone must do everything to align to their interests while they themselves just do not care about giving a damn about what others need or want. White colonialist fake superiority at its best, like they were entitled to everything and others nothing.

Europe is honestly lucky a country like Turkey still wants to enter EU after the humiliation it makes them go through for acceptance. If I were Turkey I would honestly not give a damn about EU and simply leave NATO altogether.

[2952-0-0]

Why clownish? Feels pretty logical and in line with Turkish interests. If they’re expected to be allies enough to help put more countries in NATO, surely why can’t they be allies enough to be in the EU?

It wasn't so long ago that Erdogan was claiming he could "never" approve Sweden's entry into NATO, on the grounds that Sweden was sheltering Kurdish militants, allowing a desecration of the Koran, insulting Turkey as a nation, and so on.

Now, he's conveniently forgotten all these, and demanding something he had not previously demanded.

If he wants to play hardball when negotiating, that's fine. But negotiating in good faith is important, and antics like this only damage his credibility the next time he wants to negotiate with anyone - European or not.

[Epaminondas]

Europe is honestly lucky a country like Turkey still wants to enter EU after the humiliation it makes them go through for acceptance. If I were Turkey I would honestly not give a damn about EU and simply leave NATO altogether.

It tracks with your world view that you'd think the EU someone needs to advertise to recruit new members. In Estonia, the EU regional development fund has poured in €10B since 2005, over 3 years of the national budget. Everyone can see that Turkish ministers would love this windfall to line their pockets.

Rather, Erdogan knows full well his poor, corrupt, authoritarian regime doesn't make the cut for membership in the considerably wealthier and democratic European Union, so he tries blackmail rather than comply with the institutional requirements for a functional block.

How long will it take for you to see that most of the tech and amenities around you would not exist without Western institutions.

[Red Velvet]

Europe is honestly lucky a country like Turkey still wants to enter EU after the humiliation it makes them go through for acceptance. If I were Turkey I would honestly not give a damn about EU and simply leave NATO altogether.

Rather, Erdogan knows full well his poor, corrupt, authoritarian regime doesn't make the cut for membership in the considerably wealthier and democratic European Union, so he tries blackmail rather than comply with the institutional requirements for a functional block.

As if EU member countries like Hungary were a better example than Turkey! That’s the standard EU accepts so this higher-ground comes across as totally false.

What counts against Turkey in the end is their religion and racism that is tied to anti-immigration sentiment because of their geographical location. It’s only reason why they’re treated like savages like in this post while Hungary’s abuses are tolerated and emboldened by the Europeans.

[Lykaon]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1678460040334680071

Terrorist submarine captain killed in Krasnodar. Unknown at the moment if it was the work of partisans or if it was “suicide via 4 shots to the back”, but he was responsible for many of the missile strikes on civilian targets. Rest assured he’s eating raw turnips with comrade Stalin down in hell now

[nicholas.slaydon]

https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1678484703060324359

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1678484703060324359

"So much winning" for Mr. Putin...

Finland now in NATO, Sweden looks likely to be fast tracked.

Ukraine will likely end up with something short with only "security guarantees" for the foreseeable future, or a similar concept depending upon the nuances and intricacies of diplomatic double-speak, where Ukraine's Western allies let them down a couple times when it came to some type of protection against Russian aggression.