Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do even 20% of Red Velvet posts in this thread involve Russia-Ukraine in any way?

Something something Global South something something russia

Do even 20% of Red Velvet posts in this thread involve Russia-Ukraine in any way?

They only do when you realize he treats the war as the Global South vs the West because of the countries that aid Ukraine

The President of South Africa making a speech about lack of vaccine access in Africa at a summit in Paris does not relate to Russia or Ukraine in any remote way, shape or form. Maybe he needs a "Global South megathread".

[Badger]

Please try to keep your posts about the new conflict in Russia in the new thread everyone; people a few weeks or months from now trying to go through Ukraine news will have to go through dozens of pages of posts not relevant to the war to get to it.

What about posts related to both conflicts at once?

This. The two are clearly linked arm in arm.

[Badger]

And of course Comrade Woody and General Secretary economic wall of text guy show up now.

They have been cowering with imminent humiliation the last couple days, haven't they?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Do even 20% of Red Velvet posts in this thread involve Russia-Ukraine in any way?

Something something Global South something something russia

Do even 20% of Red Velvet posts in this thread involve Russia-Ukraine in any way?

They only do when you realize he treats the war as the Global South vs the West because of the countries that aid Ukraine

The President of South Africa making a speech about lack of vaccine access in Africa at a summit in Paris does not relate to Russia or Ukraine in any remote way, shape or form. Maybe he needs a "Global South megathread".

Oh I agree completely but explaining what seems to be his justification lol

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

Omg! It just dawned on me that there's got to be a connection between this mutiny by Wagner and just a day or so earlier the Ukraine announcing it was going to so-called reorganize for the next week rather than continue the counteroffensive.

Wagner timed this perfectly.

Timed hell. How much do you want to bet that there was some agreement between zelensky or his top generals and Wagner? We'll hold off the counter offensive if you guys make good on going for Moscow. Will sort out what happens next when the dust settles.

Of course, this theory was posted before I read those tweets about the Ukrainian Eastern group Armed Forces making an all advanced push across the front

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672664974844637184

Odds of agreement holding up are already going down, if accurate

Okay, so this seems to be the big flashpoint? Is this old news which occurred prior to the reportedly brokered ceasefire? Or has Putin already started his stab in the back counter-attack on Wagner?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

Omg! It just dawned on me that there's got to be a connection between this mutiny by Wagner and just a day or so earlier the Ukraine announcing it was going to so-called reorganize for the next week rather than continue the counteroffensive.

Wagner timed this perfectly.

Timed hell. How much do you want to bet that there was some agreement between zelensky or his top generals and Wagner? We'll hold off the counter offensive if you guys make good on going for Moscow. Will sort out what happens next when the dust settles.

Of course, this theory was posted before I read those tweets about the Ukrainian Eastern group Armed Forces making an all advanced push across the front

It is highly likely Wagner has some kind of contacts with the Ukrainians and other non-Putin actors. It is quite possible that there was a deal made.
The problem with the ease by which one could justifiably reach such conclusions however is that certainty for any of them being true is difficult in the best of days.

[NOVA Green]

I wonder if the timing got pushed up because of recent events in Russia?


https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672686973025173504?s=20

[PSOL]

All of this turned out to be a huge nothingburger

[Storr]

I wonder if the timing got pushed up because of recent events in Russia?


https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672686973025173504?s=20

You have to take the opportunities you are given. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what’s happening.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder if the timing got pushed up because of recent events in Russia?


https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672686973025173504?s=20

You have to take the opportunities you are given. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what’s happening.

Yep.

[Storr]

The sudden decision by Prigozhin to make a deal, give up, and turn around does make more sense if you look at his actions as gangland (or warlord?) warfare instead of a coup attempt.

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1672682385518006272?s=20

[Storr]

Weird…I thought the whole point of this operation was to prevent Wagner from become controlled by the MoD? No changes to MoD leadership, either? Why would someone who claims to be such a true Russian patriot agree to flee to Belarus? Russia sure is a strangle place.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672694309512962048?s=20

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672694824120512512?s=20

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1672676852656226305?t=ojpi-hW0N5zSbi2WRXsWeQ...

It's interesting that the Russian elite choose to store their wealth in...good ol'fashioned greenbacks.

[Flyersfan232]

The sudden decision by Prigozhin to make a deal, give up, and turn around does make more sense if you look at his actions as gangland (or warlord?) warfare instead of a coup attempt.

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1672682385518006272?s=20

You think Putin place the hit on him yet?

[pppolitics]

So is Russia going to pretend that that didn't ever happen?

It's clear now that the Russian government can barely control its own territory, let alone territory stolen from Ukraine.

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1672668518888923137

Massive concessions for Putin. He looks incredibly weak.

Nothing a cup of a poison tea can’t fixs

[Middle-aged Europe]

Even though it seems to be over for now, the fact remains that Putin had to strike a deal with armed insurgents who threatened to invade his capital. Authority of the Russian state gas eroded.

[PSOL]

None of this will matter in a week from now

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672707938891202560?s=20

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1672705142125211649?s=20

[oldtimer]

The sudden decision by Prigozhin to make a deal, give up, and turn around does make more sense if you look at his actions as gangland (or warlord?) warfare instead of a coup attempt.

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1672682385518006272?s=20

You think Putin place the hit on him yet?

With what ?

Even the FSB allowed Wagner to do it's march to Moscow, he's got no loyal elements to count on for such a thing.

Or is he going to threaten to nuke him every now and then.

[Torie]

"President Vladimir V. Putin hasn’t been seen publicly since his video address on Saturday morning, in which he accused the mutinying Wagner fighters of committing treason and stabbing Russia in the back."

I read the above just now in the NYT, and my brain instantly day dreamed, oh, there was an undisclosed term to the deal. Putin needed to disappear.

[jaichind]

Prigozhin's main mistake was not recruiting this guy to lead the insurrection in Moscow


He will do the insurrection correctly and Putin overthrown already.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

None of this will matter in a week from now

None of this will matter in a millennium from now

[PSOL]

Iran and China seem to be the only BRICs powers to be anywhere near competent. As Russia falls further into irrelevance as their capabilities get contracted out to Wagner, the remaining two are going to pick up the pieces. I do not see any way now with the continued failures of Shoigu and Gerasimov along with the head icon change things on the ground in Ukraine. Russian politics will continue to get exceptionally nasty as people take their grievances out into the open now.

The popular support Russia does have in Serbia will continue to degrade at an accelerating pace as they are not relevant enough to give them backup. Wagner might get contracted to another European theater if things escalate in the Balkans. Anything else will be decided by the ballot box in the next year, and if that does not lead to a solid conclusion, the bullet will look increasingly enticing.

Xi Jinping needs to seriously contemplate if he should get involved in Russian politics and work to clean the chaff else risk another tantrum and further economic decline.