Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[John Dule]

https://www.twitter.com/BMoens/status/1596060373484179457

LOL, as if we twisted their arms and forced them to become dependent on Russian gas. Even a moron like Trump understood that they were hitching their wagon to a very unreliable horse.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL the Eurosh**ts complain constantly that we emit to much in greenhouse gasses but when we actually do something they also complain. Why the f@ck are we defending them? Countries in Eastern Europe and Asia- places decidedly more at risk- are actually supportive and grateful.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.twitter.com/BMoens/status/1596060373484179457

This is utterly pathetic on the EU's part. Even leaving aside Putin's role:

"The biggest point of tension in recent weeks has been Biden’s green subsidies and taxes that Brussels says unfairly tilt trade away from the EU and threaten to destroy European industries. Despite formal objections from Europe, Washington has so far shown no sign of backing down. "

What kind of braindead logic is that?? We should all be encouraging green energy right now. If the IRA's energy investments put Europe at a disadvantage, guess what, Europe should do the same! Of course, that would require not being single-mindedly focused on budgetary austerity...

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Russian Invasion and Occupation of Kazakhstan is temp off the table, as the Russian Nationalist War Mongers recalibrate, regardless of their dream of a greater "Ethnic Russia" and restoration and "Reunion" of the former Republics of the USSR.


https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1596082162238980096?s=20&t=YxbmW7...

[Torie]

https://www.twitter.com/BMoens/status/1596060373484179457

This is utterly pathetic on the EU's part. Even leaving aside Putin's role:

"The biggest point of tension in recent weeks has been Biden’s green subsidies and taxes that Brussels says unfairly tilt trade away from the EU and threaten to destroy European industries. Despite formal objections from Europe, Washington has so far shown no sign of backing down. "

What kind of braindead logic is that?? We should all be encouraging green energy right now. If the IRA's energy investments put Europe at a disadvantage, guess what, Europe should do the same! Of course, that would require not being single-mindedly focused on budgetary austerity...

I think they are objecting to the idea of subsidizing buyers to buy American rather than European. It really has nothing to do with green energy. It's one thing to try to limit economic dependency on predatory autocratic nations, it is quite another to do it with nations that pose no such issues.

I suspect I would be annoyed to. I suspect as an American I would be annoyed, once I understand the facts more definitively.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.twitter.com/BMoens/status/1596060373484179457

This is utterly pathetic on the EU's part. Even leaving aside Putin's role:

"The biggest point of tension in recent weeks has been Biden’s green subsidies and taxes that Brussels says unfairly tilt trade away from the EU and threaten to destroy European industries. Despite formal objections from Europe, Washington has so far shown no sign of backing down. "

What kind of braindead logic is that?? We should all be encouraging green energy right now. If the IRA's energy investments put Europe at a disadvantage, guess what, Europe should do the same! Of course, that would require not being single-mindedly focused on budgetary austerity...

I think they are objecting to the idea of subsidizing buyers to buy American rather than European. It really has nothing to do with green energy. It's one thing to try to limit economic dependency on predatory autocratic nations, it is quite another to do it with nations that pose no such issues.

I suspect I would be annoyed to. I suspect as an American I would be annoyed, once I understand the facts more definitively.

Fair enough, but this still seems to be missing the forest for the trees. Europe needs a green investment plan on par with the IRA, and the only reason they're not doing anything of the like is because of the austerity dogma. If they want to respond to Biden's "buy American" program with a "buy European" program, while not ideal, it's still a way to level the playing field.

[Torie]

Professor Michael Clarke at Oxford is quite a riveting narrator I must say. At the end of this clip he discussions the Wagner Group leader's bio and the deal he offered up to the most hardened criminals in a Russian prison.  It seems more of a plot from a novel written to be made into a film than anything else.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4f8UbBmb0Eg

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1596430568773885952

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1596616193242435584

Russia on pace to lose 100k before the winter campaign sets in

[Torie]

The arms race, with a burn rate not experienced in decades, such is the consequence of engaging in a land war with Russia as it were. High tech alone is not enough. The whole concept of national (Western) defense is undergoing an extensive rewrite.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/26/world/europe/nato-weapons-shortage-ukraine.html

[Estrella]

An interesting article about the Federal Protective Service and its countermeasures against a hypothetical anti-Putin coup:



(wait, no, sorry, wrong link)

Enemy within the Kremlin Gates. FSO gets ready to protect Putin from coup by using priests, hypnotists and political officers

The FSO planners emphasize that the enemy is cunning and insidious and will first of all seek to “reduce the psychological stability of personnel, disorient them morally and make them unprepared for resistance. Among the key threats they name television, radio, print media, social media, books, brochures, leaflets and posters. In addition, agents of foreign intelligence may engage social movements, non-governmental and religious (pseudo-religious) organizations, and reach out to relatives of FSO officers. Particular emphasis is placed on certain individuals “capable of psychologically infecting personnel and possessing hypnotic abilities.” However, the document does not specify who these individuals are or how they can hypnotize and psychologically infect the well-trained Kremlin guards.

In addition to social media and hypnosis, as outlined in the plan, the enemy intends to employ more sophisticated methods: 1) software and hardware backdoors enabling sound and visual effects, 2) psycho-corrective games, 3) psychoactive chemical and biological formulas, 4) computer psycho-viruses and programs exerting subtle influence on computer operators, 5) psycho-generators, 6) low frequency acoustic generators, 7) advertising products, 8​) everyday household items in prepared packing.

The psycho-corrective games mentioned in the classified plan are mainly intended for developing attention and overcoming fears in preschool children. Child psychologists use human or animal dolls for this purpose. How it will look in practice with regard to foreign intelligence agents and FSO officers is difficult to imagine.

Computer psycho-viruses, whatever they may be, can be safely excluded from the methods of psychological influence on security personnel. Due to the massive popularity of foreign porn websites among the Kremlin security officers, especially at night, Internet access was cut off several years ago. And the use of cell phones and tablets while on duty in the Kremlin is strictly forbidden.

Tabloids have written a lot about the psycho-generator, or as it is also called, “dark matter generator”, which had allegedly been developed in secret CIA centers. Those publications were used by more than one generation of conspiracy and pseudo-science theorists. The Soviet Union also sought to create psychological weapons, a lot of money had been invested, but due to meager results the secret program was closed.

You know, it tells you a lot about the mindset of people who run intelligence/security agencies that they imagine a coup as some kind of esoteric sci-fi battle where those who have the shiniest high-tech toys and the purest psyche will win, even though every coup in Russian history was some variation on this:

And these people are Russians! They should know. But then Putinism is all about historical illiteracy.

[NOVA Green]

An interesting article about the Federal Protective Service and its countermeasures against a hypothetical anti-Putin coup:



(wait, no, sorry, wrong link)

Enemy within the Kremlin Gates. FSO gets ready to protect Putin from coup by using priests, hypnotists and political officers

The FSO planners emphasize that the enemy is cunning and insidious and will first of all seek to “reduce the psychological stability of personnel, disorient them morally and make them unprepared for resistance. Among the key threats they name television, radio, print media, social media, books, brochures, leaflets and posters. In addition, agents of foreign intelligence may engage social movements, non-governmental and religious (pseudo-religious) organizations, and reach out to relatives of FSO officers. Particular emphasis is placed on certain individuals “capable of psychologically infecting personnel and possessing hypnotic abilities.” However, the document does not specify who these individuals are or how they can hypnotize and psychologically infect the well-trained Kremlin guards.

In addition to social media and hypnosis, as outlined in the plan, the enemy intends to employ more sophisticated methods: 1) software and hardware backdoors enabling sound and visual effects, 2) psycho-corrective games, 3) psychoactive chemical and biological formulas, 4) computer psycho-viruses and programs exerting subtle influence on computer operators, 5) psycho-generators, 6) low frequency acoustic generators, 7) advertising products, 8​) everyday household items in prepared packing.

The psycho-corrective games mentioned in the classified plan are mainly intended for developing attention and overcoming fears in preschool children. Child psychologists use human or animal dolls for this purpose. How it will look in practice with regard to foreign intelligence agents and FSO officers is difficult to imagine.

Computer psycho-viruses, whatever they may be, can be safely excluded from the methods of psychological influence on security personnel. Due to the massive popularity of foreign porn websites among the Kremlin security officers, especially at night, Internet access was cut off several years ago. And the use of cell phones and tablets while on duty in the Kremlin is strictly forbidden.

Tabloids have written a lot about the psycho-generator, or as it is also called, “dark matter generator”, which had allegedly been developed in secret CIA centers. Those publications were used by more than one generation of conspiracy and pseudo-science theorists. The Soviet Union also sought to create psychological weapons, a lot of money had been invested, but due to meager results the secret program was closed.

You know, it tells you a lot about the mindset of people who run intelligence/security agencies that they imagine a coup as some kind of esoteric sci-fi battle where those who have the shiniest high-tech toys and the purest psyche will win, even though every coup in Russian history was some variation on this:

And these people are Russians! They should know. But then Putinism is all about historical illiteracy.

Might be a bit different from 1917, but yet still the Russian Empire expanded long over many centuries, consolidated under Catherine the Great, and then later the Communist Revolution.

Still, even the rump of "Mother Russia" might well be entering a "Pre-Revolutionary" era, especially when looking a certain variables, such as "Crisis of Confidence" among the Elites, "Pact between the current regime and the people", not to mention "massive unpopular war overseas", massive generational gaps when it comes to opinions of the regime,,,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDJda4PoFZ4

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

You know, it tells you a lot about the mindset of people who run intelligence/security agencies that they imagine a coup as some kind of esoteric sci-fi battle where those who have the shiniest high-tech toys and the purest psyche will win, even though every coup in Russian history was some variation on this:

And these people are Russians! They should know. But then Putinism is all about historical illiteracy.

I feel this has to in some way be intertwined with the long-expressed view that the definition of a "coup" involves some semblance of a popular uprising--see the way the Color Revolutions and Maidan are classed as "coups". Coups, therefore, must involve some way to trick or incite the masses.

[John Dule]

This is utterly pathetic on the EU's part. Even leaving aside Putin's role:

"The biggest point of tension in recent weeks has been Biden’s green subsidies and taxes that Brussels says unfairly tilt trade away from the EU and threaten to destroy European industries. Despite formal objections from Europe, Washington has so far shown no sign of backing down. "

What kind of braindead logic is that?? We should all be encouraging green energy right now. If the IRA's energy investments put Europe at a disadvantage, guess what, Europe should do the same! Of course, that would require not being single-mindedly focused on budgetary austerity...

“Lol, foolish Americans pulled out of the Paris Climate Accords. They should learn to care about the environment like us enlightened Europeans— no, wait! Not like that! Nooo!”

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Was it Russia or Nazi Germany: Ukraine Invasion Bingo

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.9%        +3.1%       +1.8%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.5%

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.2%       -0.2%         +0.3%       -0.8%      +4.9%        +1.2%
 
2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.1%      +2.2%          +2.3%

Russia's expected 2022 GDP decline continues to converge toward less than what was expected.  Due to base effects, Russia's 2023 numbers get somewhat worse.  The total 2022-2023 Russian GDP drop is now expected to be a bit more than -7% versus ~-11% when the war started.


 The economic projections for 2022  continue to get slightly better in the collective West but 2023 gets significantly worse, especially in the EU and UK.  The inflation situation is stabilizing in Russia and USA while it continues to get worse in the EU and UK.   The COVID-19 lockdowns and real estate bust continue to hit PRC's economic prospects.  At least cheap Russian energy is helping to keep inflation under control.  Japan continues a steady decline in prospects even as CPI slowly edges upwards.

[CumbrianLefty]

Iran and China are now both in turmoil - Russia next?

[Virginiá]

The arms race, with a burn rate not experienced in decades, such is the consequence of engaging in a land war with Russia as it were. High tech alone is not enough. The whole concept of national (Western) defense is undergoing an extensive rewrite.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/26/world/europe/nato-weapons-shortage-ukraine.html

Honestly, I can't say I blame anyone here, although I do wish they had contingencies in place that would have at least allowed companies to spin up production faster, even if at a cost. There doesn't seem to be any such thing. It's not practical to spend the money to maintain vast production lines of military staples like artillery shells and missiles of various kinds, especially when there is no clear idea of when a major war will be fought or with whom exactly.  The west would instead have to spend a lot of money on an annual basis purchasing weapons it doesn't need to keep those lines active. And for artillery, I think the US miscalculated on that and the fact that it has wasted billions of dollars over the years trying to develop a next-gen self-propelled artillery gun and still has nothing to show for it (aside from prototypes) is pretty sad in itself and indicative of how far down the list of priorities artillery is to the US.

The big lesson here I think is going to be that west cannot just invest in small amounts of high-tech weapons and think that will be enough. They have to have large stockpiles of munitions and more basic systems that are a necessity in just about any war. Further, they need to devise a way to surge production faster than they have, even if it means spending significant money to stockpile excess machinery and train people they might need to call on later to build those weapons. Otherwise the ability to fight an extended peer war is dicey at best.

[Frodo]

The storied 'General Winter' -who helped destroy Napoleon Bonaparte's Grande Armée and Adolf Hitler's Wehrmacht- is decidedly not on Russia's side.  At least not this time:

Russian Soldiers Are Freezing To Death In Eastern Ukraine

(...) But these elite Ukrainian formations might not be the biggest killer of Russian troops in the east. Under-trained, under-supplied and ambivalently led, Russians in the region are freezing to death by the dozen.

Shocking videos that have circulated online in recent weeks tell a tragic story. The videos, shot by the Ukrainian brigades’ hovering drones, depict Russians in the late stages of hypothermia, so cold and sick that they barely react when the drones drop lethal improvised bombs on them.

Thomas Theiner, an ex-soldier who currently is a filmmaker in Kyiv, predicted winter “would kill more Russian soldiers than Ukraine ever could.” He may have been right.

Winters in Ukraine start wet and cold then get colder and drier. Eastern Ukraine still is in the wet-cold phase—and it’s brutal. Deep mud mires armored vehicles. Daytime temperatures hover around freezing, while nighttime temperatures dip closer to zero degrees Fahrenheit.

Will there even be a Russian army for the Ukrainians to fight by springtime?

[Virginiá]

One thing I will say is that I feel like western audiences are treated regularly to stories that paint an extremely grim picture of conditions for the Russian army and suggest even more grim consequences, and yet they keep on keeping on despite that. I don't think this means they aren't facing extremely grave losses (otherwise they wouldn't have mobilized), but I do think it means that so long as Putin and Russian society are willing to continue sending wave after wave of men into Ukraine, Russia is going to be able to absorb debilitating losses, whether from winter or poor combat outcomes, for quite a while longer, even if they have to strip the uniforms off dead Russian soldiers to give to the newly mobilized. Sure, they might not actually be able to conduct meaningful counter-offensives and seize more land, but it will slow Ukraine down as well and keep this war dragging on indefinitely.

Just saying because I've both read and felt myself that surely Russia can't keep going with these kinds of losses, and yet they do, and that is largely because I think we underestimate the amount of losses and suffering the Russian army can endure. It might be the only thing they are truly good at.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

One thing I will say is that I feel like western audiences are treated regularly to stories that paint an extremely grim picture of conditions for the Russian army and suggest even more grim consequences, and yet they keep on keeping on despite that.

I don't think this means they aren't facing extremely grave losses (otherwise they wouldn't have mobilized), but I do think it means that so long as Putin and Russian society are willing to continue sending wave after wave of men into Ukraine, Russia is going to be able to absorb debilitating losses, whether from winter or poor combat outcomes, for quite a while longer, even if they have to strip the uniforms off dead Russian soldiers to give to the newly mobilized. Sure, they might not actually be able to conduct meaningful counter-offensives and seize more land, but it will slow Ukraine down as well and keep this war dragging on indefinitely.

Just saying because I've both read and felt myself that surely Russia can't keep going with these kinds of losses, and yet they do, and that is largely because I think we underestimate the amount of losses and suffering the Russian army can endure. It might be the only thing they are truly good at.

Yes and no: they suffered a collapse in Kharkiv because of manpower issues, retreated from Kherson to preserve trained manpower (possibly only a concern while mobilisation was still in its early stages), and mobilised to prevent further losses. One of the reasons for the failure and scaling down of the original war aims (the abandonment of the Kyiv/Chernihiv/Sumy offensives) was lack of manpower. Russia hasn't been able to simply keep on trucking, but it has adapted - which is normal.

In a few months' time, when mobilisation is in full swing, casualties will matter less for them - because they can keep mobilising more people. This is also true for Ukraine, but to a lesser extent. It has a smaller population, but reporting indicates the size of its army is still mostly constrained by metal, not manpower.

It doesn't mean that casualties don't matter at all. I wonder whether Russia's better-trained troops/veterans will suffer as badly as the mobiks, as casualties in these ranks would be more significant. Officer/specialist casualties may also prove a serious problem.

[Virginiá]

Russia hasn't been able to simply keep on trucking, but it has adapted - which is normal.

I'm speaking in the broader sense of this war. Every day Putin and his generals instruct their army to hold their ground or launch operations against the enemy, they are basically keeping on keeping on despite taking on heavy losses and accomplishing nothing of note doing so.

They've had to retreat and give up some regions for various reasons, and they've suffered considerable losses of manpower and equipment, the latter of which alone is more than many other countries could take, but because of Putin's indifference for the welfare of his people, and their considerable weapon & munition stockpiles, they are able to keep going in spite of the losses.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The bigger issue at play right now is less the amount of causalities the Russian military is able to tolerate and move on with but the amount causalities the Russian people are willing to tolerate and move on. Because the Soviet disaster in Afghanistan that caused domestic upheaval nor did Vietnam which defined and traumatized an entire generation weren’t this bloody

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russia hasn't been able to simply keep on trucking, but it has adapted - which is normal.

I'm speaking in the broader sense of this war. Every day Putin and his generals instruct their army to hold their ground or launch operations against the enemy, they are basically keeping on keeping on despite taking on heavy losses and accomplishing nothing of note doing so.

I suspect this isn't completely true. War is negative-sum, and Ukraine's army is not a rock upon which Russia breaks itself. It's likely that even with equal or greater manpower, Russia's force has degraded in Ukraine, but that Ukraine's army has also degraded to some extent. Relative casualty rates and equipment losses/potential replacements are relevant here.

There is, at least, visual evidence of both sides resorting to progressively worse equipment - and we can presume that pre-war contract soldiers were probably of higher quality than most volunteers or mobiks who signed up after February 23.

They've had to retreat and give up some regions for various reasons, and they've suffered considerable losses of manpower and equipment, the latter of which alone is more than many other countries could take, but because of Putin's indifference for the welfare of his people, and their considerable weapon & munition stockpiles, they are able to keep going in spite of the losses.

They are able to keep going in the sense that they're not surrendering outright, and I agree that they are, in many respects, better placed than Ukraine to wage the current war of attrition. That doesn't mean what they're doing is sensible, nor does being able to sustain war for years mean it can be sustained forever.

It also comes with rising political costs, as indicated by the Levada Centre polls and Putin's stage-managed meeting with mothers of the deceased. I'm not optimistic these will amount to much, but he seems somewhat concerned about them. The anti-war sentiment surrounding both conflicts in Afghanistan, as well as the ones in Iraq and Vietnam, took years to reach a critical mass in each case, but it still did so - even though the jingoism was extremely strong at first.

Russia's leaders may be continuing the war effort for now not because they think it will work, but because of their tendency to procrastinate difficult decisions.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.9%        +3.1%       +1.8%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.5%

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.2%       -0.2%         +0.3%       -0.8%      +4.9%        +1.2%
 
2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.1%      +2.2%          +2.3%

Russia's expected 2022 GDP decline continues to converge toward less than what was expected.  Due to base effects, Russia's 2023 numbers get somewhat worse.  The total 2022-2023 Russian GDP drop is now expected to be a bit more than -7% versus ~-11% when the war started.


 The economic projections for 2022  continue to get slightly better in the collective West but 2023 gets significantly worse, especially in the EU and UK.  The inflation situation is stabilizing in Russia and USA while it continues to get worse in the EU and UK.   The COVID-19 lockdowns and real estate bust continue to hit PRC's economic prospects.  At least cheap Russian energy is helping to keep inflation under control.  Japan continues a steady decline in prospects even as CPI slowly edges upwards.

LMAO how did the UK under Truss have a higher growth rate than the US? And how is zero COVID not affecting China?

[Suburbia]

At some point, Western taxpayers will start to get agitated.

When will this war end?

NATO should have removed and struck Putin a long time ago.

NATO is a joke.