Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1580714073783562240?cxt=HHwWgMCjtef...

[jaichind]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/index.html

"Exclusive: Musk's SpaceX says it can no longer pay for critical satellite services in Ukraine, asks Pentagon to pick up the tab"

This was expected after the Ukrainian govm't rightfully told him to fuck right off after he arrogantly tried to play peacemaker. That is enough for Musk to pull his support, because his ego got hurt.

Ukraine's behavior with respect to Musk does not make sense.  Ukraine comes off as an immature entitled child.  What Ukraine is saying is that anyone that supports Ukraine cannot have their own independent thought and that Ukraine is entitled to unconditional support with no questions asked. 

What Ukraine should have said in response to Musk's proposals should have been "Thank you for your proposals.  First, we want to say how much we appreciate your support for us in our defense against Russia's war of aggression.    As for your proposal for peace, while we share your desire for this war to come to an end as quickly as possible the conditions you laid out would compromise the national territorial integrity of Ukraine and would not be acceptable to the people of Ukraine.  We do appreciate your efforts to try to reach peace and we would welcome other ideas you might have that could end this war."

I get that Ukraine is in a desperate war for survival.  But that is all the more reason to build a grand United Front of supporters and not demand that a condition for supporting them is not to have independent thoughts or ideas.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ukraine's behavior with respect to Musk does not make sense.  Ukraine comes off as an immature entitled child.  What Ukraine is saying is that anyone that supports Ukraine cannot have their own independent thought and that Ukraine is entitled to unconditional support with no questions asked.  

If Ukraine comes across as that - note: they didn't literally say the bolded part to Musk, that's your subjective interpretation of events that amounts a bit to putting words in their mouth IMO - but if they had I'd say they're definitely entitled to, given that they were invaded and are fighting for their survival as a nation.

[Torie]

The atmospherics of Musk assuming he is entitled to dictate Ukraine's foreign policy because he made some in kind contributions to it, is not good. Not everything is for sale.

[CumbrianLefty]

It totally makes Musk look worse than Ukraine, even if you don't fully agree with the latter.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/index.html

"Exclusive: Musk's SpaceX says it can no longer pay for critical satellite services in Ukraine, asks Pentagon to pick up the tab"

This was expected after the Ukrainian govm't rightfully told him to fuck right off after he arrogantly tried to play peacemaker. That is enough for Musk to pull his support, because his ego got hurt.

Ukraine's behavior with respect to Musk does not make sense.  Ukraine comes off as an immature entitled child.  What Ukraine is saying is that anyone that supports Ukraine cannot have their own independent thought and that Ukraine is entitled to unconditional support with no questions asked. 

What Ukraine should have said in response to Musk's proposals should have been "Thank you for your proposals.  First, we want to say how much we appreciate your support for us in our defense against Russia's war of aggression.    As for your proposal for peace, while we share your desire for this war to come to an end as quickly as possible the conditions you laid out would compromise the national territorial integrity of Ukraine and would not be acceptable to the people of Ukraine.  We do appreciate your efforts to try to reach peace and we would welcome other ideas you might have that could end this war."

I get that Ukraine is in a desperate war for survival.  But that is all the more reason to build a grand United Front of supporters and not demand that a condition for supporting them is not to have independent thoughts or ideas.

The only person who comes off as an entitled immature child is the guy who can’t handle a Ukrainian ambassador making an emotionally charged statement after said person made a completely tone deaf statement

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/index.html

"Exclusive: Musk's SpaceX says it can no longer pay for critical satellite services in Ukraine, asks Pentagon to pick up the tab"

This was expected after the Ukrainian govm't rightfully told him to fuck right off after he arrogantly tried to play peacemaker. That is enough for Musk to pull his support, because his ego got hurt.

Ukraine's behavior with respect to Musk does not make sense.  Ukraine comes off as an immature entitled child.  What Ukraine is saying is that anyone that supports Ukraine cannot have their own independent thought and that Ukraine is entitled to unconditional support with no questions asked.  

What Ukraine should have said in response to Musk's proposals should have been "Thank you for your proposals.  First, we want to say how much we appreciate your support for us in our defense against Russia's war of aggression.    As for your proposal for peace, while we share your desire for this war to come to an end as quickly as possible the conditions you laid out would compromise the national territorial integrity of Ukraine and would not be acceptable to the people of Ukraine.  We do appreciate your efforts to try to reach peace and we would welcome other ideas you might have that could end this war."

I get that Ukraine is in a desperate war for survival.  But that is all the more reason to build a grand United Front of supporters and not demand that a condition for supporting them is not to have independent thoughts or ideas.

The only person who comes off as an entitled immature child is the guy who can’t handle a Ukrainian ambassador making an emotionally charged statement after said person made a completely tone deaf statement

I would also like to add that Andrej Melnyk has always been rather blunt and emotional and that his bluntness and his emotionality are the main reasons why today is in fact his last day as Ambassador to Germany.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ukraine comes off as an immature entitled child.

Ukraine didn't name its baby after its favorite serial number and break up with Wannabe Bjork because something something conscious uncoupling something something polycule.

[Person Man]

Ukraine comes off as an immature entitled child.

Ukraine didn't name its baby after its favorite serial number and break up with Wannabe Bjork because something something conscious uncoupling something something polycule.

burn

[Virginiá]

Russian soldier talks about artillery and how when Ukrainians fire, they usually hit what they are aiming for while Russia doesn't, and by the time Russians respond, Ukrainians are gone, and the Russians are just "shooting at ghosts" all night.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1580893935001423872

hilarious stuff

[Estrella]

Chart from Economist's
"As Europe falls into recession, Russia climbs out"

The primary aim of modern warfare (in accordance with the principles of doublethink, this aim is simultaneously recognized and not recognized by the directing brains of the Inner Party) is to use up the products of the machine without raising the general standard of living. Ever since the end of the nineteenth century, the problem of what to do with the surplus of consumption goods has been latent in industrial society.

The problem was how to keep the wheels of industry turning without increasing the real wealth of the world. Goods must be produced, but they must not be distributed. And in practice the only way of achieving this was by continuous warfare. The essential act of war is destruction, not necessarily of human lives, but of the products of human labour. War is a way of shattering to pieces, or pouring into the stratosphere, or sinking in the depths of the sea, materials which might otherwise be used to make the masses too comfortable, and hence, in the long run, too intelligent. Even when weapons of war are not actually destroyed, their manufacture is still a convenient way of expending labour power without producing anything that can be consumed.

This is obviously not something Putin is doing on purpose, but it is the consequence of his actions and it shows why 'haha squiggly line go up' doesn't mean the same thing in today's Russia as elsewhere.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Chart from Economist's
"As Europe falls into recession, Russia climbs out"

The primary aim of modern warfare (in accordance with the principles of doublethink, this aim is simultaneously recognized and not recognized by the directing brains of the Inner Party) is to use up the products of the machine without raising the general standard of living. Ever since the end of the nineteenth century, the problem of what to do with the surplus of consumption goods has been latent in industrial society.

The problem was how to keep the wheels of industry turning without increasing the real wealth of the world. Goods must be produced, but they must not be distributed. And in practice the only way of achieving this was by continuous warfare. The essential act of war is destruction, not necessarily of human lives, but of the products of human labour. War is a way of shattering to pieces, or pouring into the stratosphere, or sinking in the depths of the sea, materials which might otherwise be used to make the masses too comfortable, and hence, in the long run, too intelligent. Even when weapons of war are not actually destroyed, their manufacture is still a convenient way of expending labour power without producing anything that can be consumed.

This is obviously not something Putin is doing on purpose, but it is the consequence of his actions and it shows why 'haha squiggly line go up' doesn't mean the same thing in today's Russia as elsewhere.

jaichind's consistently bullish on the potential ROI if he invests in the Accursed Share.

[2952-0-0]

The atmospherics of Musk assuming he is entitled to dictate Ukraine's foreign policy because he made some in kind contributions to it, is not good. Not everything is for sale.

He's asking for the President to invoke the Defense Production Act and force him to provide service to Ukraine at cost. The dumbest part of it all? He could have quietly negotiated a reasonable access fee allowing him to both make a profit and come out as a good guy. Lockheed Martin transformed itself from villain to hero overnight, and no one cares that it's executives are making big bucks this year.

jaichind's consistently bullish on the potential ROI if he invests in the Accursed Share.

He's bullish as long as he doesn't have to make any personal sacrifice. Remember how he chickened out after I asked him if he was willing to put money into Russian ETFs?

[Virginiá]

Elon Musk has a history of digging himself into a hole and then proceeding to dig even deeper because he just can't for the life of him shut up. He is terminally online and so thin-skinned that he is practically translucent. He is a near perfect example of someone who never should have been a CEO or spokesman of anything. Certainly a man with talents but is just the epitome of a man-child.

This isn't really going to mean anything in the long run except maybe Musk becomes synonymous with garbage in Ukraine. Someone is going to pick up the Starlink tab, and eventually the public sphere will move on to something else.

[2952-0-0]

This isn't really going to mean anything in the long run except maybe Musk becomes synonymous with garbage in Ukraine. Someone is going to pick up the Starlink tab, and eventually the public sphere will move on to something else.

No doubt, by now there are conversations at the Pentagon about invoking the Defense Production Act against Starlink. One man single-handedly disrupting the Ukrainian war effort just as it's making major victories simply can't be allowed to stand. No doubt, that Elon Musk himself will be politely asked not to force the President into signing the order.

But, suppose say that fails, and men in uniform show up at Starlink HQ. It will immediately cost him billions in wealth at a time he's trying to avoid coughing up billions over his Twitter deal. Some terminally online Republicans will accuse Biden of being a socialist dictator by using the military to seize the assets of someone who dissented. Putin will no doubt gloat and compare this to his own actions against oligarchs who fell out with him.

Meanwhile, every Internet-censoring autocrat will be vindicated in their claims that US-based tech giants are tools of the US government to subvert their national sovereignty. The Chinese leadership, in particular, will be scared sh!tless that, after having lured Tesla into building a factory in China, they witness the US government openly using its military to seize control of Starlink. They will respond, and in not positive ways.

The butterfly effect is real!

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1580923687972220928

[jaichind]

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/several-arrested-after-attempt-to-blow-up-turkstream-pipeline-russia/2710880

"Several arrested after attempt to blow up TurkStream pipeline: Russia"

This on the same day as

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-russia-gas-hub-set-up-jointly

"Turkey and Russia to jointly set up gas hub in Thrace, Erdogan says"

[Storr]

Korkino is has a population of only 34,000 people. Notably it's the hometown of one of the very few Russian athletes to publicly speak out against Putin, New York Rangers NHL player Artemi Panarin.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1580466203562102784?s=20&t=W9RGUte8...


The comments (I'm surprised they left the comments section open) are not great for Putin:

This one got more than 50 upvotes: "And this is only one meager military enlistment office[,] officially confirmed. And how many are already unconfirmed or missing - by 5 should be multiplied or by 10?
How long?!
And most importantly - for what?!"

Edit: This comment got 107 upvotes: "How did they die on their own, if they still have to undergo training for a month before being sent there?"

At some point (after 773 comments had been made...now it says there are only 771. I guess some of them are being deleted) the comments section was closed.

More info:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1580671180662448128?s=20&t=Nsz92qRwM5nG5r...

[Virginiá]

Russian MoD cracking down on the nationalist mil bloggers. Might have an effect on the reliability of war reporting, of which some Russian sources have been fairly OK with lately when it comes to Russian territorial losses, mostly because of how jaded and fed up they are with their incompetent military. That seems to be part of the problem here - Russia wants them to stop being realistic about the military's failings.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580984617783304192

[Storr]

Rats, sinking ship, etc.

https://twitter.com/balticjam/status/1580993234800869376?s=20&t=Nsz92qRwM5nG...

[windjammer]

When will Kherson fall?

[Dr. Arch]

When will Kherson fall be liberated?

FTFY

[Virginiá]

US with another beefy military aid package

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3189571/725-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

    - Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
    - 23,000 155mm artillery rounds;
    - 500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
    - 5,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems;
    - 5,000 anti-tank weapons;
    - High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
    - More than 200 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
    - Small arms and more than 2,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition;
    - Medical supplies.

Lots of light armored vehicles, guns, precision rockets/shells and ammunition. Especially when you consider what they sent 10 days ago:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3179323/625-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

    - Four High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and associated ammunition;
    - 16 155mm Howitzers;
    - 75,000 155mm artillery rounds;
    - 500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
    - 1,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems;
    - 16 105mm Howitzers;
    - 30,000 120mm mortar rounds;
    - 200 MaxxPro Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles;
    - 200,000 rounds of small arms ammunition;
    - Obstacle emplacement equipment;
    - Claymore anti-personnel munitions.

[NOVA Green]

When will Kherson fall be liberated?

FTFY

Believe I posted this previously, but still here we go... for what it's worth.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1580603516254818305?s=20&t=DSqoaeaqii-X...

[NOVA Green]

US with another beefy military aid package

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3189571/725-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

    - Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
    - 23,000 155mm artillery rounds;
    - 500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
    - 5,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems;
    - 5,000 anti-tank weapons;
    - High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
    - More than 200 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
    - Small arms and more than 2,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition;
    - Medical supplies.

Lots of light armored vehicles, guns, precision rockets/shells and ammunition. Especially when you consider what they sent 10 days ago:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3179323/625-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

    - Four High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and associated ammunition;
    - 16 155mm Howitzers;
    - 75,000 155mm artillery rounds;
    - 500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
    - 1,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems;
    - 16 105mm Howitzers;
    - 30,000 120mm mortar rounds;
    - 200 MaxxPro Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles;
    - 200,000 rounds of small arms ammunition;
    - Obstacle emplacement equipment;
    - Claymore anti-personnel munitions.

Saw this earlier and was thinking of posting, but your compare and contrast list is even better than the more limited post which I would have done.

Additionally reports on the Northeastern front suggest that now regular Ukrainian artillery shells are capable of hitting Russian Units, making the assault on that front less dependent on the more valuable stockpiles of HIMARS.

Also, the very successful Ukrainian assaults around Kharkiv, demonstrate that it does not necessarily involve tank units to be extremely successful on the battlefield, and also the mobility that Ukraine has demonstrated by shifting troops between both the Kharkiv and Kherson fronts, with much shorter supply-chain lines, has been a key success factor for the Ukrainian counterattacks and liberation of territory over the past few months.

(200) Hummers are huge and can be easily repurposed...

US in Iraq War 2.0 favored them over tanks because of mobility.