Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Video showing the resupply issues the Russians are facing having to supply units on the western side (Right-bank) of the Dnipro River using low speed, rickety, exposed pontoon bridges due to all bridges being knocked out by HIMARS:

https://twitter.com/spanishcossack/status/1567573110227976195?s=20&t=T4M6Um2...


Second part of the video is bloody, not necessary to watch to get the point:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1567576403754770436?s=20&t=mbVThLkLBHz7bF...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1567570779822342145?s=20&t=mbVThLkLBHz7bF...

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/sep/06/liz-truss-expected-to-freeze-uk-energy-bills-at-2500-a-year

One European country after another announcing full freezes on Energy prices (for at least this winter and in some already admitting until mid 2024). France already has one in place, Germany and Austria have now also said this, and the UK's new Prime Minister Liz Truss will announce the same tomorrow. Hard to see how public pressures won't now result in a domino effect in all of Europe here.

This is not really a good idea at all because it will end, or at least drastically reduce the incentive to save energy (depending on how the freeze is implemented). There should be more targeted support payments to more vulnerable households, instead of artificially cheapening a already scarce resource for everyone. However it is clear that the public pressure is now so intensive that in a democratic system there is no alternative. But if European countries don't reduce energy consumption significantly, there will be a essentially a very bad circular loop where the prices on the spot market this winter will balloon to astronomical levels, and Governments have pour more and more money (debt) in to subsidise the energy and keep the cap in place.

The consequences of this could be: In Germany only small businesses and private households are planned to be price capped, not industry. The result will be industry paying massively inflated prices at which point many will no longer be able to produce. The economic consequences of that would be horrific, so it is likely that the German Government would then have to impose energy rationing.

But Germany is not even on the worst end here: The UK, which doesn't have meaningful manufacturing, but whose economy instead relies on foreign capital inflows is possibly in even worse situation. Why? UK will be even more exposed to market conditions this winter as it has almost no storage (Germany has iirc somewhere like enough storage for 60 days, while UK has for about 4 Days), and as such will have to take even more debt to fund its price freeze. UK already has a big current account deficit and unusually large foreign outflows. Deutsche Bank has warned that the UK is increasingly at risk of no longer attracting enough foreign capital to fund the external balance, which would result in a very stark depreciation of GBP, and a emerging-market style currency crisis. Without manufacturing, exports won't be helped by this, only imports will become much more expensive, drastically reducing living standards. To be clear this is the worst case szenario, but it is definitely realistic. Europe really needs leaders with nerves of steel right now.

This is complete nonsense. Prices in the UK are being capped at around 3 times as high as they were last year (and they're historically higher here than in the US.) That is more than high enough to encourage cuts in energy use (and the bulk of energy use is on heating, which you can only cut so far before it causes other problems.)

You could let prices go higher, but they no longer provide a useful price signal - if you cannot afford to pay three times as much as last year, you cannot afford to pay five times as much, so it does not provide any additional information. Meanwhile the signal that energy is incredibly expensive and you should use less of it remains really clear - they are not being capped at a peppercorn rent.

[NOVA Green]

The Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine (that is quite a long title lol) claims Balakliya was taken with many Russian POWs and KIA:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567291547145703426?s=20&t=pahaDICr...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567291548781395969?s=20&t=pahaDICr...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567291550408794113?s=20&t=pahaDICr...

So looks like Pro-Russian sources are saying that Balakliia is effectively encircled:

An official representing the Russian-controlled Donetsk People’s Republic said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces “encircled” Balakliia, an eastern town of 27,000 people situated between Kharkiv and Russian-occupied Izium.

“At this time, Balakliia is in operative encirclement and within the firing range of Ukrainian artillery. All approaches are cut off by fire,” he said, adding that a successful Ukrainian offensive would threaten Russian forces in Izium, a strategically important town that Russia has been using for its own offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Unverified footage circulating on social media on Wednesday showed what looked like a Ukrainian soldier posing in front of an entrance sign for Balakliia.

Rob Lee, a military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said the Ukrainian attack indicated that Russian forces near Kharkiv were stretched.

“Russia doesn’t have strong reserves in this area that could be sent quickly to plug gaps and reinforce key towns. Ukraine may have a numerical and armour superiority here.”

https://www.theguardian.com/global/2022/sep/07/ukraine-launches-surprise-counterattack-kharkiv-region-russia

[Oryxslayer]

Between Kharkiv and Kherson; Ukraine has set itself up nice to deal Russia devastating defeats

If there really are two major offensives going on at once - and the alleged* scale of what is being reported would suggest there is - then Ukraine is making an even bigger gamble by not concentrating as much in one offensive as they could (the commentariat insisted the logic of the Kherson offensive was that they could concentrate forces more easily there than Russia). They shouldn't want to fall into slower, positional warfare where they can avoid it, or any towns they gain will end up like those conquered by Russia in the Donbas: taken too slowly to avoid being levelled beforehand, and too slowly to avoid the defenders setting up new defensive lines behind them.

The rasputitsa will slow or possibly halt offensive actions during October, as it hindered the Russian push last spring.

*Not enough reliable information information is present now, but this could become clear in a month or so.

I think the current Ukraine strategy of attacking on several fronts are risky but does give it path toward victory.  I am going to define Ukraine victory as end of conflict without ceding territory. Just letting the Russians slowly chip away at Donbass with massive artillery creates a de facto situation of Russian annexation of Donbass which will not be victory.  Taking advantage of Ukraine manpower advantage while most Russia attention are in Donbass to try to chip away at Russian holdings elsewhere so Russia takes its eye off the ball in Donbass is one route, risky one to be fair, to victory where as status quo does not lead to victory.  Fortune favor the bold.  We will see if it works out for Ukraine.

I have seen a few experts begin to theorize that this was exactly the plan. Lure large numbers of quality troops west of the Dnieper from other comparatively quiet fronts. There they will be 'trapped' in a pocket formed by the river and long-range artillery, and gradually worn down through excess attrition from armillary and limited river crossings. Meanwhile, offenses commence on the weakened fronts previously relived of excess defenders, all while Kherson remains hot and unable to be abandoned.

[Storr]

The Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine (that is quite a long title lol) claims Balakliya was taken with many Russian POWs and KIA:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567291547145703426?s=20&t=pahaDICr...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567291548781395969?s=20&t=pahaDICr...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567291550408794113?s=20&t=pahaDICr...

So looks like Pro-Russian sources are saying that Balakliia is effectively encircled:

An official representing the Russian-controlled Donetsk People’s Republic said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces “encircled” Balakliia, an eastern town of 27,000 people situated between Kharkiv and Russian-occupied Izium.

“At this time, Balakliia is in operative encirclement and within the firing range of Ukrainian artillery. All approaches are cut off by fire,” he said, adding that a successful Ukrainian offensive would threaten Russian forces in Izium, a strategically important town that Russia has been using for its own offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Unverified footage circulating on social media on Wednesday showed what looked like a Ukrainian soldier posing in front of an entrance sign for Balakliia.

Rob Lee, a military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said the Ukrainian attack indicated that Russian forces near Kharkiv were stretched.

“Russia doesn’t have strong reserves in this area that could be sent quickly to plug gaps and reinforce key towns. Ukraine may have a numerical and armour superiority here.”

https://www.theguardian.com/global/2022/sep/07/ukraine-launches-surprise-counterattack-kharkiv-region-russia

It's never a good sign for Russia when the war reporters leave:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1567591184322777089?s=20&t=b0f8L_Sw...

Nice:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567588381256736769?s=20&t=b0f8L_Sw...

[windjammer]

Am I the only one to have the feeling the russian front is deteriorating very quickly. It's like it's very much starting to crack and that we're entering into a New phase.

[President Johnson]

Am I the only one to have the feeling the russian front is deteriorating very quickly. It's like it's very much starting to crack and that we're entering into a New phase.

Yeah, this might be the start of a turning point. I just wonder which side is better prepared for the autumn and winter in particular. November to March might be very challenging. The war will almost certainly last beyond that.

[Torie]

Am I the only one to have the feeling the russian front is deteriorating very quickly. It's like it's very much starting to crack and that we're entering into a New phase.

My uninformed surmise is that the Russian troops don't want to fight (most of them), and make that plain to their commanders.

[NOVA Green]

Am I the only one to have the feeling the russian front is deteriorating very quickly. It's like it's very much starting to crack and that we're entering into a New phase.

Honestly I am feeling a bit more optimistic than I was in the first few days of the Kherson Counter-Offensive, where despite attempted Ukrainian news restrictions and blackouts, credible reports, including I believe the Greek Consular in Mykolaiv was estimating something like both Russia and Ukraine had each suffered 1-1.5k casualties in just the first few days in fighting with Kherson Oblast.

Also, reading various analysis from retired military folks and war experts that Ukraine was short roughly 6 BTGs, especially lacking sufficient armor and mech infantry type support to have the type of rapid movement and flexibility to navigate the terrain of front-line areas in Kherson Province, made me a bit skeptical that Ukraine would be able to accomplish much more than potentially force Russian forces out of Kherson City using a siege scenario.

It does appear that on three different fronts Ukraine has made some significant gains in recent days, and that we can likely expect to see further gains over the next couple weeks.

One of the items that I am wondering about is to what extent Ukraine is actually doing a better job of replenishing the attrition rate among their front-line soldiers than Russia is, in after all a situation where Ukraine has no shortage of potential soldiers willing to fight (morale) and Russia is reduced to hiring hardcore criminals, including murderers, and old men by promising them extra $$$ to fight.

Read this article from The Economist a couple weeks back, and since it is paywalled only a few snippets quoted:

Ukraine aspires to launch a large-scale offensive in the coming weeks. That would require it to establish around half a dozen new mechanised and tank brigades, says Franz-Stefan Gady of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank in London (a brigade has around 4,000 men). Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s defence minister, says the army has 700,000 personnel in hand, with police, border guards and gendarmerie bringing the total to a million. The catch is that only a small proportion of this force has the skills and experience for serious fighting.

That is where the training comes in. Britain has pledged to train 10,000 Ukrainian recruits in 120 days, in the relative safety of several camps across Britain. Canadian troops could be seen milling around the facility in Kent. Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Norway, New Zealand and Sweden have said they will send trainers, too. Over 2,000 soldiers have already been trained and sent back to Ukraine. The vast majority of the recruits have no previous military experience. They are taught the rudiments of infantry tactics from early in the morning to late at night. The training is slow and deliberate, says Major Craig Hutton, one of the British trainers, with an emphasis on the basics such as marksmanship and treating injuries.

Ukraine does at least have an ample supply of willing men. Russia is in a trickier spot. Western officials say that more than half of its brigades and regiments in Ukraine are now at less than 60% of their original manpower and equipment, making them technically “combat ineffective” for their intended missions.

Around half of Russia’s provinces are generating battalions in this way, some of them manipulating local pride to cobble together units. Many of the new battalions are being grouped under the 3rd Army Corps, a new formation based in Mulino, a town in Nizhny Novgorod. Yet names can be misleading. A corps typically has 15,000-20,000 men. The new one looks threadbare. “Even the name ‘volunteer battalion’ is a misnomer,” says Tom Bullock of Janes, a defence-intelligence firm. He points to the “Tigr” battalion from Primorsky Krai. It had just 65 men who had completed training before being sent to Rostov, near the Ukrainian border, where another 130 or so green recruits were added.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/08/25/ukraine-and-russia-both-need-more-soldiers

[Torie]

Am I the only one to have the feeling the russian front is deteriorating very quickly. It's like it's very much starting to crack and that we're entering into a New phase.

Honestly I am feeling a bit more optimistic than I was in the first few days of the Kherson Counter-Offensive, where despite attempted Ukrainian news restrictions and blackouts, credible reports, including I believe the Greek Consular in Mykolaiv was estimating something like both Russia and Ukraine had each suffered 1-1.5k casualties in just the first few days in fighting with Kherson Oblast.

Also, reading various analysis from retired military folks and war experts that Ukraine was short roughly 6 BTGs, especially lacking sufficient armor and mech infantry type support to have the type of rapid movement and flexibility to navigate the terrain of front-line areas in Kherson Province, made me a bit skeptical that Ukraine would be able to accomplish much more than potentially force Russian forces out of Kherson City using a siege scenario.

It does appear that on three different fronts Ukraine has made some significant gains in recent days, and that we can likely expect to see further gains over the next couple weeks.

One of the items that I am wondering about is to what extent Ukraine is actually doing a better job of replenishing the attrition rate among their front-line soldiers than Russia is, in after all a situation where Ukraine has no shortage of potential soldiers willing to fight (morale) and Russia is reduced to hiring hardcore criminals, including murderers, and old men by promising them extra $$$ to fight.

Read this article from The Economist a couple weeks back, and since it is paywalled only a few snippets quoted:

Ukraine aspires to launch a large-scale offensive in the coming weeks. That would require it to establish around half a dozen new mechanised and tank brigades, says Franz-Stefan Gady of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank in London (a brigade has around 4,000 men). Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s defence minister, says the army has 700,000 personnel in hand, with police, border guards and gendarmerie bringing the total to a million. The catch is that only a small proportion of this force has the skills and experience for serious fighting.

That is where the training comes in. Britain has pledged to train 10,000 Ukrainian recruits in 120 days, in the relative safety of several camps across Britain. Canadian troops could be seen milling around the facility in Kent. Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Norway, New Zealand and Sweden have said they will send trainers, too. Over 2,000 soldiers have already been trained and sent back to Ukraine. The vast majority of the recruits have no previous military experience. They are taught the rudiments of infantry tactics from early in the morning to late at night. The training is slow and deliberate, says Major Craig Hutton, one of the British trainers, with an emphasis on the basics such as marksmanship and treating injuries.

Ukraine does at least have an ample supply of willing men. Russia is in a trickier spot. Western officials say that more than half of its brigades and regiments in Ukraine are now at less than 60% of their original manpower and equipment, making them technically “combat ineffective” for their intended missions.

Around half of Russia’s provinces are generating battalions in this way, some of them manipulating local pride to cobble together units. Many of the new battalions are being grouped under the 3rd Army Corps, a new formation based in Mulino, a town in Nizhny Novgorod. Yet names can be misleading. A corps typically has 15,000-20,000 men. The new one looks threadbare. “Even the name ‘volunteer battalion’ is a misnomer,” says Tom Bullock of Janes, a defence-intelligence firm. He points to the “Tigr” battalion from Primorsky Krai. It had just 65 men who had completed training before being sent to Rostov, near the Ukrainian border, where another 130 or so green recruits were added.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/08/25/ukraine-and-russia-both-need-more-soldiers

Just so you know, while you need to register for The Economist, the cost is zero, the best bargain in the world. The next best bargain is the New Yorker (what a wonderful that Mag is), also free. The third best bargain at a buck a week is the NYT. The more I get to know it, the more I admire it.

The Guardian is great too, and that is for free. Pity the WSJ is behind an expensive paywall. 

[Storr]

Big if true. Shevchenkove is 30km west of Kupyansk and the largest town, population 6,700, between Chuhuiv (under Ukrainian control for the entire war) and Kupyansk as well as Balakliya and Kupyansk:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567508891193286656?s=20&t=hR77LzDXGT...

[tweet snip]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1567621029496819713?s=20&t=lODXseGjTSUfgr...

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1567649287537934337?s=20&t=lODXse...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1567677689892315136

[Storr]

Russia moment:

https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1567679863221362689?s=20&t=MjQqqoKI...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1567624726545154048?s=20&t=jGaIWD...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Russian lines in Kharkiv has collapsed faster than I thought was possible. Volokhiv Yar has been liberated and Ukrainian scouts are pushing onwards to Semenivka to the north. Russians in Balakliya are encircled and fighting to the last man.


UPDATE: Russian Su-25 shot down near Volokhiv Yar
[tweet]https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1567424375019683840[/t-+weet]

I assumed that Ukraine would be cautious and only launch one counteroffensive at a time. This is fantastic that Ukraine pushed forward 20 kilometers in the Kharkiv region as well as Kherson.

There was a bunch of 'elite' Russian paratroopers and Spetsnaz wiped out and surrounded in Balakliya.

 

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1567617246029021184?s=20&t=JYJ_ObplTQMbl...

[Storr]

It seems things are not going well:

"I ask everyone who doubts the victory of Russian weapons to leave the channel. Russia in every war has its own "Moscow burned by fire" and 1941. But then blooming May always comes."

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1567749412310466561?s=20&t=4nyVKEejkHh...

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1567486326580150273?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

I dunno if this has been posted yet, but JFC. The Russian standing army is up to circa 350,000 after expansions for the conflict.
This is just dead, add in wounded and the army is being bleed white.

[jaichind]

https://europeansting.com/2022/09/08/statement-by-president-von-der-leyen-on-energy/

"Statement by President von der Leyen on energy"

So what we have to do is to flatten the curve

Oh no, not again ....

[Torie]

https://europeansting.com/2022/09/08/statement-by-president-von-der-leyen-on-energy/

"Statement by President von der Leyen on energy"

So what we have to do is to flatten the curve

Oh no, not again ....

Work nights. You remember the Bear Mountain proposal right?

[Woody]

Alright. So I have been carefully assessing what has been going on the past 10 days without making any bold analysis. And to be honest, I still view this as a standstill or a tug of war.

While it's too early to say what's going on in Balakliiya (Which at the moment is still under Russian/OMON control. Kherson City is more or less the same amount of distance away from the frontlines, and despite the bridge being out of commission the ferry rides continue to supply the city. The real action is around the Inhulets beachhead which is far away from the target and still contested, with as little as 3 villages confirmed to have changed hands.

Ukraine has still yet to liberate a settlement that is populated by 1500+ inhabitants, nor is it appropriate to call it a success when the Russian Forces in the South are still entrenched, while UA continue taking heavy attrition.

I am sorry, but I see no reason to rejoice yet, this is just coming a clean head. At this point, I see no strategic change from the previous maps.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567839362292776960

[Torie]

This article states that Russia not only forces Ukrainians out of their country and into Russia, but then "kidnaps" the children to put them up for adoption by Russian parents. I posted the other day that Putin reminds me more and more of Hitler. The anguish of the parents must be unimaginable.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/08/world/ukraine-russia-war#the-united-states-accuses-moscow-of-forcibly-moving-up-to-1-6-million-ukrainians-to-russia

[Storr]

Big if true, only 11km from Kupyansk:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567862024196980738?s=20&t=8ZGOjiSC8J...

Would fit in line with this claim:

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1567851434032472068?s=20&t=8ZGOjiSC8J...

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/EdwardWeinert/status/1567857606508662785

I don't know how to put up twitter, but I like the map. I like context rather than zoom ins.