Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

There are unconfirmed twitter reports (thus, grain of salt) of a renewed Ukrainian offensive on the Kherson-Mykolaiv front:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1535393566767423488?s=20&t=Eg_z5pX2Xx...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1535284267168813057?s=20&t=VAFy2jlN85uUlZ...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1535284399977205763?s=20&t=VAFy2jlN85uUlZ...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Some Nazi sh*t:
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1535029213862023169

It’s a genocide and I prefer a large nuclear exchange to a future where this regularly happens.

Russia is a state sponsor of genocide and terrorism. Russia is a criminal state, every decent country should embargo all Russian trade, like the US embargo on Cuba.

[Person Man]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/07/yellen-us-curb-russia-oil-revenue-00037779

"Yellen: U.S. working with allies to curb Russia's oil revenue"

Next idea: inverse OPEC, a buyers cartel

Without India and PRC in it, there will be a big hole in the cartel

There needs to be a buyers’ cartel.

The route to such a cartel would mean that it will not work.  The way a cartel can get its way is to show it can walk away and that it will just refuse to buy or sell unless it gets the price that it wants.  The very fact that the EU tried to create an embargo on Russian oil and pretty much failed tells Russia that the EU cannot walk away.  This pretty much means the Russians will call this buyer cartel's bluff even if it can organize itself to form such a cartel.  The best such a cartel can do is put a tariff on Russian oil but that would just be paid by EU and US consumers and not the Russians.

There’s always secondary sanctions.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Der Spiegel claims Germany has instructed Spain not to deliver German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/news-olaf-scholz-russland-ukraine-waffenlieferungen-afd-a-10bbf76f-bc59-4d16-ae68-11ba716dacf1

This was allegedly done to maintain an informal consensus to not send Western-made tanks to Ukraine.

Germany earlier stated it couldn’t send Leopard 1 tanks because of a lack of ammunition and didn’t even consider sending Leopard  2s. If this report is true - there’s a chance Der Spiegel’s sources are crap, and they do quote Business Insider - that claim doesn’t hold up very well.

The original claims about Spanish tank deliveries also mentioned anti-aircraft missiles. If these aren't eventually sent, I’m not going to put much stock in this story.

[jaichind]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/mcdonalds-moscow-style-is-back-as-russian-economy-stumbles-on-8672221.html

"McDonald’s, Moscow style, is back, as Russian economy stumbles on"

This is not a surprise.  It was always clear that after the shock of the Western businesses pulling out there was always going to be an import substitution boom in Russia.  This dynamic will play out over the next couple of years.  A very similar situation took place in Iran after the imposition of Western sanctions.   Being cut off from Western supplies and fiance clearly is suboptimal but that is more of a long-term thing and by no means does it have to mean disaster.  What Iran did not get right was the financial system which fell apart after Western sanctions despite its economy being able to recover on a growing but clearly suboptimal path.  Russia seems to have learned the right lessons from the Iran experience and focused on getting its financial system in order which it basically did with interest rates falling and the RUB rising.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The idea that most Western businesses like McDonalds pulling out of Russia did much actual good at all for Ukraine was questionable and was an utter mistake from an influence viewpoint. We've lost decades worth of corporate leveraging power in a blink of an eye. The fact that so many businesses left Russia is bad for the United States.
There is certainly lots of room for companies refusing to do business with Russia to harm in more specialized areas, though.
Overall, though, nobody should be shocked that the Russians are better adapted to sanctions today than 2014. The idea it will produce a similar kind of impact to 2014 just smacks of cockiness, wishful thinking, or both.

[Person Man]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/mcdonalds-moscow-style-is-back-as-russian-economy-stumbles-on-8672221.html

"McDonald’s, Moscow style, is back, as Russian economy stumbles on"

This is not a surprise.  It was always clear that after the shock of the Western businesses pulling out there was always going to be an import substitution boom in Russia.  This dynamic will play out over the next couple of years.  A very similar situation took place in Iran after the imposition of Western sanctions.   Being cut off from Western supplies and fiance clearly is suboptimal but that is more of a long-term thing and by no means does it have to mean disaster.  What Iran did not get right was the financial system which fell apart after Western sanctions despite its economy being able to recover on a growing but clearly suboptimal path.  Russia seems to have learned the right lessons from the Iran experience and focused on getting its financial system in order which it basically did with interest rates falling and the RUB rising.

Would you eat at Uncle Vanya’s?

[Woody]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v9tqoy/russian_invaders_repainted_the_stele_in_mariupol/



Russians are also planning to use captives (forced labor) to rebuild Mariupol:

[President Johnson]

Sources now reporting that Chancellor Olaf Scholz will travel to Kyiv later this month, for the first time since the war begun.

[Storr]

This will be an ongoing problem for Russia as long as they occupy the Southern regions of Ukraine. Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts are not like the Donbass or Crimea.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1528347402528247809?s=20&t=A0gRZa...


Percentage of people with Russian as their native language by Oblast in the 2001 Ukrainian Census (the only one conducted since independence):



Oblasts annexed or (to varying degrees) under Russian occupation:

Sevastopol: 90.6%
Crimea: 77.0%
Donetsk: 74.9%
Luhansk: 68.8%
Zaporizhia: 48.2%
Kharkiv: 44.3%
Mykolaiv: 29.3% (only Snihurivka is currently occupied by Russia)
Kherson: 24.9%

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1535654896355221508?s=20&t=zo6Dhn...

It is claimed one of the generals mentioned in the previous tweet above, was an FSB general:
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1535404723288915968?s=20&t=zo6Dhnw9t-DIW...

[Virginiá]

Forced labor camps, mass deportations, wholesale rape and slaughter of civilians. Sounds familiar. Seems like Russia picked the wrong country to de-Nazify

[MATTROSE94]

Forced labor camps, mass deportations, wholesale rape and slaughter of civilians. Sounds familiar. Seems like Russia picked the wrong country to de-Nazify

They should have denazified themselves first.

[Person Man]

Forced labor camps, mass deportations, wholesale rape and slaughter of civilians. Sounds familiar. Seems like Russia picked the wrong country to de-Nazify

They should have denazified themselves first.

We’ve known since at least 2008 that Russia needed to be denazified.

[Badger]

The idea that most Western businesses like McDonalds pulling out of Russia did much actual good at all for Ukraine was questionable and was an utter mistake from an influence viewpoint. We've lost decades worth of corporate leveraging power in a blink of an eye. The fact that so many businesses left Russia is bad for the United States.
There is certainly lots of room for companies refusing to do business with Russia to harm in more specialized areas, though.
Overall, though, nobody should be shocked that the Russians are better adapted to sanctions today than 2014. The idea it will produce a similar kind of impact to 2014 just smacks of cockiness, wishful thinking, or both.

It's pretty clear that all this corporate leverage you talk about is pretty much mythical. Kicking the Russian economy in The Shins, no matter how much jaichind sneers at such efforts and cheers whenever they fall short of complete success, it's absolutely the right and intelligent thing to do

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The idea that most Western businesses like McDonalds pulling out of Russia did much actual good at all for Ukraine was questionable and was an utter mistake from an influence viewpoint. We've lost decades worth of corporate leveraging power in a blink of an eye. The fact that so many businesses left Russia is bad for the United States.
There is certainly lots of room for companies refusing to do business with Russia to harm in more specialized areas, though.
Overall, though, nobody should be shocked that the Russians are better adapted to sanctions today than 2014. The idea it will produce a similar kind of impact to 2014 just smacks of cockiness, wishful thinking, or both.

It's pretty clear that all this corporate leverage you talk about is pretty much mythical. Kicking the Russian economy in The Shins, no matter how much jaichind sneers at such efforts and cheers whenever they fall short of complete success, it's absolutely the right and intelligent thing to do

This is an important point - unused leverage didn't stop the war, but the reluctance to impose sanctions and the willingness to keep buying gas even after Russia imposed temporary sanctions on its purchase multiple times and then launched an invasion is proof that Russian economic leverage is real.

Damaging the Russian war machine is not the only benefit of the sanctions. Another is destroying Russia's economic leverage over our economies. Sanctions accelerate economic disentanglement, which is sadly necessary at this point.

[Storr]

A video showing why progress for both sides has been so minimal as of late:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1535710782675202049?s=20&t=NVc323OX...

[Person Man]

A video showing why progress for both sides has been so minimal as of late:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1535710782675202049?s=20&t=NVc323OX...

It all just seems to be what is to wrath what porn is to lust.

[Storr]

There are unconfirmed twitter reports (thus, grain of salt) of a renewed Ukrainian offensive on the Kherson-Mykolaiv front:

[tweet snip of multiple tweets reporting on the offensive]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1535768883558338561?s=20&t=fink-4...

[walleye26]

There are unconfirmed twitter reports (thus, grain of salt) of a renewed Ukrainian offensive on the Kherson-Mykolaiv front:

[tweet snip of multiple tweets reporting on the offensive]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1535768883558338561?s=20&t=fink-4...

Good to hear but I’m still skeptical. I don’t see much change in front lines at all for the next few weeks.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The idea that most Western businesses like McDonalds pulling out of Russia did much actual good at all for Ukraine was questionable and was an utter mistake from an influence viewpoint. We've lost decades worth of corporate leveraging power in a blink of an eye. The fact that so many businesses left Russia is bad for the United States.
There is certainly lots of room for companies refusing to do business with Russia to harm in more specialized areas, though.
Overall, though, nobody should be shocked that the Russians are better adapted to sanctions today than 2014. The idea it will produce a similar kind of impact to 2014 just smacks of cockiness, wishful thinking, or both.

It's pretty clear that all this corporate leverage you talk about is pretty much mythical. Kicking the Russian economy in The Shins, no matter how much jaichind sneers at such efforts and cheers whenever they fall short of complete success, it's absolutely the right and intelligent thing to do

This is an important point - unused leverage didn't stop the war, but the reluctance to impose sanctions and the willingness to keep buying gas even after Russia imposed temporary sanctions on its purchase multiple times and then launched an invasion is proof that Russian economic leverage is real.

Damaging the Russian war machine is not the only benefit of the sanctions. Another is destroying Russia's economic leverage over our economies. Sanctions accelerate economic disentanglement, which is sadly necessary at this point.

Economic disentanglement is far from some unalloyed good. By disconnecting Russia from the outside world, it not only cedes room to rival corporations that would like to profit from the Russian market, it makes Russia even less reliant on us than they otherwise would be.

Russia still has leverage over us and has fought tooth-and-nail to keep it. We've, on the other hand, voluntarily given up some of the leverage we had over Russia, gambling that doing so would force them to the table (it hasn't). Its value in forcing an immediate shift (or lack thereof) is besides the point. A Russia reliant on the West for basically as little as is possible is a clear negative for Western interests, and has negative impacts on Russia as well, by removing whatever remains of moderating influences to Putin and co's influence in Russian society. And that is the real source of Putin's power. Globalization and global interconnectivity is the biggest weapon we have against Putin - it helped expose the Russian youth to things outside state television and state-directed content and it provided us with an anti-Putin base that looks to us and our ways of thinking as a potential alternative. It will be key if we want a Russia that is aligned with our camp.

Why do you think the Russian authorities have long disliked Youtube? They know how information wars are played, after all.

[Storr]

From an obviously biased source, but there hasn't been much news circulating about the fight over the T1302 highway in the past week. Control over the road is very important in order for Ukraine to continue fighting in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, so I felt this was worth sharing:


"Lviv paratroopers of the 80th [Separate Air Assault Brigade] eliminated in battle about 50 occupiers from the "elite" 76th [Guards Air Assault] Pskov division, who wanted to cut one strategically important route in eastern Ukraine. [This is almost certainly the Bakhmut - Lysychansk Highway.] The battle lasted about 14 hours with the use of NLAW ATGM."

https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1534126906462830593?s=20&t=TIYRwyH...

A TikTok video of Ukrainian soldiers entering Lysychansk on the Bakhmut - Lysychansk Highway, passing the Терикони шахти Мельникова. In English: spoil heaps of the Melnikov mine.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1535825685511536649?s=20&t=tX1PyG_ul...

The gas station which is driven past the video clip can be seen on the google maps satellite view of the location:

Terykony Shakhty Melʹnykova

[jaichind]

Russian McDonald’s has identical dishes it seems.  If you use the RUB rate of around 58 to 1 these prices seem pretty steep.  The Economist McDonald’s Index should say that RUB is significantly overvalued.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1535905535819751425

[John Dule]

Can someone explain to me how Starbucks or McDonald's "pulling out" of Russia works? Their stores in Russia are owned by franchisees who could very easily just keep their businesses open, using the same brand and menu items without the company's permission, right? It might be difficult for them to source the same products now due to the sanctions, but it's not like American corporations have ever had much legal recourse against Russian companies stealing their brands.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Can someone explain to me how Starbucks or McDonald's "pulling out" of Russia works? Their stores in Russia are owned by franchisees who could very easily just keep their businesses open, using the same brand and menu items without the company's permission, right? It might be difficult for them to source the same products now due to the sanctions, but it's not like American corporations have ever had much legal recourse against Russian companies stealing their brands.

That's basically exactly what happened.