Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

What is going on in Severodonetsk?

Ukraine counterattacked and regain a part of the city, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of details.

For example, what are the casualties?

[Torie]

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3509458-the-unpalatable-truth-in-ukraine/

"The unpalatable truth in Ukraine"

And the truth is, once we have eliminated all the impossible scenarios, the least improbable outcome of the war in Ukraine is a Russian victory.

It seems the DC establishment is preparing the way for a PR explanation of what they think is a Russia victory (I assume a limited Russian victory.)

The article provides very little evidence for its claim that pushing Russia back to February 24 lines is “impossible”. It’s improbable because the political will to provide Ukraine with the best tools to ensure this outcome is likely to remain absent, but the author makes no case as to why it is certain that this will remain true.

I don’t know why opinions about how this conflict will develop are voiced with such confidence given the uncertainties of a hot war and the poor track record of expert predictions prior to and during the early stages of this conflict.

BTW, I am not saying I agree with the assessments of the article only that it most likely refects the thinking of the DC establishment which could very be wrong. 

It mimics the Biden Op-ed in the WSJ where it pretty much said "We think that a total Russian defeat can be ruled out so we still need to co-exist with Putin.  Putin, here is the deal:  there is a limit to how much we will help Ukraine so please keep the conflict localized.  You two can just fight it out in the cage and we will also work to contain this conflict"

That approach might have more appeal if the Russian tactics did not rely on destroying everything in front of it in order to "liberate" the real estate from anything that might remind one of Ukraine and Ukrainians, with anyone found alive if not killed, forcibly shipped off to whatever gulag is available. As it is, taking more risk to stop and reverse something that is all too similar to genocide has considerably more appeal.

[It’s so Joever]

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3509458-the-unpalatable-truth-in-ukraine/

"The unpalatable truth in Ukraine"

And the truth is, once we have eliminated all the impossible scenarios, the least improbable outcome of the war in Ukraine is a Russian victory.

It seems the DC establishment is preparing the way for a PR explanation of what they think is a Russia victory (I assume a limited Russian victory.)

We hardly need a rich guy from Westchester New York to try and tell us about an establishment. Get outta here, why don’t you go speculate on the hypocrisy of this.

[windjammer]

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3509458-the-unpalatable-truth-in-ukraine/

"The unpalatable truth in Ukraine"

And the truth is, once we have eliminated all the impossible scenarios, the least improbable outcome of the war in Ukraine is a Russian victory.

It seems the DC establishment is preparing the way for a PR explanation of what they think is a Russia victory (I assume a limited Russian victory.)

The article provides very little evidence for its claim that pushing Russia back to February 24 lines is “impossible”. It’s improbable because the political will to provide Ukraine with the best tools to ensure this outcome is likely to remain absent, but the author makes no case as to why it is certain that this will remain true.

I don’t know why opinions about how this conflict will develop are voiced with such confidence given the uncertainties of a hot war and the poor track record of expert predictions prior to and during the early stages of this conflict.

BTW, I am not saying I agree with the assessments of the article only that it most likely refects the thinking of the DC establishment which could very be wrong. 

It mimics the Biden Op-ed in the WSJ where it pretty much said "We think that a total Russian defeat can be ruled out so we still need to co-exist with Putin.  Putin, here is the deal:  there is a limit to how much we will help Ukraine so please keep the conflict localized.  You two can just fight it out in the cage and we will also work to contain this conflict"

Putin is an another Hitler. Hé won't stop at Ukraine and he only understands force

[pppolitics]

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3509458-the-unpalatable-truth-in-ukraine/

"The unpalatable truth in Ukraine"

And the truth is, once we have eliminated all the impossible scenarios, the least improbable outcome of the war in Ukraine is a Russian victory.

It seems the DC establishment is preparing the way for a PR explanation of what they think is a Russia victory (I assume a limited Russian victory.)

The article provides very little evidence for its claim that pushing Russia back to February 24 lines is “impossible”. It’s improbable because the political will to provide Ukraine with the best tools to ensure this outcome is likely to remain absent, but the author makes no case as to why it is certain that this will remain true.

I don’t know why opinions about how this conflict will develop are voiced with such confidence given the uncertainties of a hot war and the poor track record of expert predictions prior to and during the early stages of this conflict.

BTW, I am not saying I agree with the assessments of the article only that it most likely refects the thinking of the DC establishment which could very be wrong. 

It mimics the Biden Op-ed in the WSJ where it pretty much said "We think that a total Russian defeat can be ruled out so we still need to co-exist with Putin.  Putin, here is the deal:  there is a limit to how much we will help Ukraine so please keep the conflict localized.  You two can just fight it out in the cage and we will also work to contain this conflict"

Putin is an another Hitler. Hé won't stop at Ukraine and he only understands force

I am glad that someone understands.

[sting in the rafters]

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/12Speedy21/status/1533396383281053696?s=20&t=lz_4FVbrwwm...

[Storr]

"Major General Roman Vladimirovich Kutuzov, nicknamed "Fog" 05/06/22 was tragically demilitarized in the village of Nikolaevka, Popasnyansky district, Luhansk region."

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1533483275058135040?s=20&t=j2FJvOT6suc...


Kutuzov was the head of the 5th CAA from October 2017 to August 2018. There's a somewhat sketchy "Hindustan News Hub" article claiming Kutuzov  "commanded the 1st army corps of the self-proclaimed DPR, and gave the order to storm one of the settlements in the Donbass, and then was forced to lead it and died from Ukrainian artillery fire.

According to [Marine Corps officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmitry] Ivanov, this happened in the area of ​​the Artemovsk [Bakhmut] -Lysichansk highway, a key supply artery for the Ukrainian army, defending Severodonetsk, which the Russian army has been trying to take control of for more than a week."

https://hindustannewshub.com/russia-ukraine-news/another-russian-general-dies-in-donbass-the-moscow-times/

Nikolaevka/Mykolaivka, Luhansk Oblast appears to be here at 48.77707, 38.33159. That is indeed close to the Bakhmut-Lsyschansk Highway and located 17 km north of Popansa, which is from where the Russians are advancing (or at least trying to do so) towards the highway.

[Logical]

"Major General Roman Vladimirovich Kutuzov, nicknamed "Fog" 05/06/22 was tragically demilitarized in the village of Nikolaevka, Popasnyansky district, Luhansk region."

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1533483275058135040?s=20&t=j2FJvOT6suc...


Kutuzov was the head of the 5th CAA from October 2017 to August 2018. There's a somewhat sketchy "Hindustan News Hub" article claiming Kutuzov  "commanded the 1st army corps of the self-proclaimed DPR, and gave the order to storm one of the settlements in the Donbass, and then was forced to lead it and died from Ukrainian artillery fire.

According to [Marine Corps officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmitry] Ivanov, this happened in the area of ​​the Artemovsk [Bakhmut] -Lysichansk highway, a key supply artery for the Ukrainian army, defending Severodonetsk, which the Russian army has been trying to take control of for more than a week."

https://hindustannewshub.com/russia-ukraine-news/another-russian-general-dies-in-donbass-the-moscow-times/

Nikolaevka/Mykolaivka, Luhansk Oblast appears to be here at 48.77707, 38.33159. That is indeed close to the Bakhmut-Lsyschansk Highway and located 17 km north of Popansa, which is from where the Russians are advancing (or at least trying to do so) towards the highway.

https://tsargrad.tv/news/boj-za-donbass-kak-pogib-general-major-roman-kutuzov_560811

According to Russian sources he was the commander of DPR 1st Corps and died like a Napoleonic general, personally leading his men in an attack from the front (lol).

[Person Man]

"Major General Roman Vladimirovich Kutuzov, nicknamed "Fog" 05/06/22 was tragically demilitarized in the village of Nikolaevka, Popasnyansky district, Luhansk region."

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1533483275058135040?s=20&t=j2FJvOT6suc...


Kutuzov was the head of the 5th CAA from October 2017 to August 2018. There's a somewhat sketchy "Hindustan News Hub" article claiming Kutuzov  "commanded the 1st army corps of the self-proclaimed DPR, and gave the order to storm one of the settlements in the Donbass, and then was forced to lead it and died from Ukrainian artillery fire.

According to [Marine Corps officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmitry] Ivanov, this happened in the area of ​​the Artemovsk [Bakhmut] -Lysichansk highway, a key supply artery for the Ukrainian army, defending Severodonetsk, which the Russian army has been trying to take control of for more than a week."

https://hindustannewshub.com/russia-ukraine-news/another-russian-general-dies-in-donbass-the-moscow-times/

Nikolaevka/Mykolaivka, Luhansk Oblast appears to be here at 48.77707, 38.33159. That is indeed close to the Bakhmut-Lsyschansk Highway and located 17 km north of Popansa, which is from where the Russians are advancing (or at least trying to do so) towards the highway.

https://tsargrad.tv/news/boj-za-donbass-kak-pogib-general-major-roman-kutuzov_560811

According to Russian sources he was the commander of DPR 1st Corps and died like a Napoleonic general, personally leading his men in an attack from the front (lol).

A general as literal cannon fodder. Let that sink in.

[Storr]

Yesterday: https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1533382115336790016?s=20&t=S3BlZr...

Today: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1533499270711713795?s=20&t=S3BlZrish...

Russian media claims "NATO weapons" were being stored at the grain port facility and Ukrainian tanks were stored at the railway repair depot. Sure, Jan.

[Storr]

Based.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1533592369161023494?s=20&t=GOkJ3o-...

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1533613417034039296?s=20&t=Gywuv3...

[Omega21]

Macron: Russia must not be humiliated in Ukraine

Typical cowardly form that confirms the worst stereotypes about France. The whole point of supporting Ukraine is to make sure the world knows that wars of aggression are harshly punished. That has to be a 'humiliation', or Russia will strike again. These selfish politicians-even people like Macron who aren't up for re election again-only caring about the short-term energy price shock threatens to undermine the whole response. Counting on Britain and the US to allow Zelensky to make his own choices about what, if any, concessions to grant.

Agree, partially.

Crimea is not on the table, so that is not really up for debate if we are being realistic. Moscow would rather nuke the UA roads to it than give it up.

Pre Feb occupied Donbas is also a must have "concession", although an autonomous region solution could work if Moscow was in a weak enough position. Keep in mind these areas are by now 90% on the Russian side, so simply occupying it would not work barring literal ethnic cleansing.

So if any is not really realistic.

Genuine question, is there any way of objectively assessing this?

(but have to say that 90% seems a bit high even now)

Not really, but makes a lot of sense.
 
It is like the Yugo civil wars. Even areas which did not suffer ethnic cleansing by force saw the minority of the region relocate.

Anyway, yes, 90% might be too high, so I would say that at least 80% of the current residents of the (pre Feb occupied) Donbas are firmly against UA.

As for Crimea, I am also fairly certain that a fully free and fair referendum would get at least 60+% in favor of joining Russia in 2014. Thats why I did not really care that much about it, and the fact that it was *almost* bloodless.

Obviously what we have going on now is not comparable in any way, and differs little from bloodthirsty wars of conquest of the past.

[Logical]

Zelensky managed to visit Lysychansk earlier today. Which means that Ukraine will fight and not retreat from the Severodonetsk salient.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1533619320093388800

[Frodo]

Yesterday: https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1533382115336790016?s=20&t=S3BlZr...
Today: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1533499270711713795?s=20&t=S3BlZrish...
Russian media claims "NATO weapons" were being stored at the grain port facility and Ukrainian tanks were stored at the railway repair depot. Sure, Jan.

I join my fellow forumites in calling for Russian reparation payments to rebuild Ukraine once this is all over.  And for those Ukrainians who were sent to the far reaches of Siberia to be returned to their homes.   

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Yesterday: https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1533382115336790016?s=20&t=S3BlZr...
Today: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1533499270711713795?s=20&t=S3BlZrish...
Russian media claims "NATO weapons" were being stored at the grain port facility and Ukrainian tanks were stored at the railway repair depot. Sure, Jan.

I join my fellow forumites in calling for Russian reparation payments to rebuild Ukraine once this is all over.  And for those Ukrainians who were sent to the far reaches of Siberia to be returned to their homes.   

Russia should pay reparations to a hell of a lot more countries than just Ukraine if inducing a worldwide famine is seriously part of their current strategy.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1533776728170143745

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1533776728170143745

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1533759934868889600

[Person Man]

Zelensky managed to visit Lysychansk earlier today. Which means that Ukraine will fight and not retreat from the Severodonetsk salient.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1533619320093388800

King

[Storr]

Ukrainian National Guard in Severondetsk.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1533750013129523200?s=20&t=Y0yOv-VSS...

[Storr]

lol

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1533923134545469441?s=20&t=W4UtQ2NK...

[Torie]

Zelensky managed to visit Lysychansk earlier today. Which means that Ukraine will fight and not retreat from the Severodonetsk salient.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1533619320093388800

Is Zelensky real? He seems more like an action hero of some video game. He is an amazing leader in all the ways that matter to the point that he seems, well almost a miracle, not only for Ukraine, but for us, or at least me (in that sense I am pleased to have lived long enough to witness such a remarkable person of erudition and virtu). And I think he will in the end be viewed as a critical vector in altering the trajectory of history, and shoring up the dikes against the flood of evil, and what must be done to balance the glories of an efficient free market, and the risk of becoming subject to the blackmail of evil. It is also an object lessen in priorities. Is it a high performance BMW, or a planet that is more civil and predicable, and just, whatever  just means.

[CumbrianLefty]

Funny thing is that before the war not that many rated him (inside Ukraine or outside it)

In this sense as much as others, he may genuinely be their Churchill.

[Omega21]

The whole residential Severodonetsk has been lost to Russia.

ISW also retracted yesterdays map updates.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1533921759682039810

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1533921762169192450


Apparently the "counter-offensive" was just hot air. (Russian shill poster, but the correspondent is UA aligned)

https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1533642396713492486