Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Pericles]

Macron: Russia must not be humiliated in Ukraine

Typical cowardly form that confirms the worst stereotypes about France. The whole point of supporting Ukraine is to make sure the world knows that wars of aggression are harshly punished. That has to be a 'humiliation', or Russia will strike again. These selfish politicians-even people like Macron who aren't up for re election again-only caring about the short-term energy price shock threatens to undermine the whole response. Counting on Britain and the US to allow Zelensky to make his own choices about what, if any, concessions to grant.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1533150302265810945?s=20&t=529eqGZ6PBPK...

[Omega21]

Macron: Russia must not be humiliated in Ukraine

Typical cowardly form that confirms the worst stereotypes about France. The whole point of supporting Ukraine is to make sure the world knows that wars of aggression are harshly punished. That has to be a 'humiliation', or Russia will strike again. These selfish politicians-even people like Macron who aren't up for re election again-only caring about the short-term energy price shock threatens to undermine the whole response. Counting on Britain and the US to allow Zelensky to make his own choices about what, if any, concessions to grant.

Agree, partially.

Crimea is not on the table, so that is not really up for debate if we are being realistic. Moscow would rather nuke the UA roads to it than give it up.

Pre Feb occupied Donbas is also a must have "concession", although an autonomous region solution could work if Moscow was in a weak enough position. Keep in mind these areas are by now 90% on the Russian side, so simply occupying it would not work barring literal ethnic cleansing.

So if any is not really realistic.

[windjammer]

Macron: Russia must not be humiliated in Ukraine

Typical cowardly form that confirms the worst stereotypes about France. The whole point of supporting Ukraine is to make sure the world knows that wars of aggression are harshly punished. That has to be a 'humiliation', or Russia will strike again. These selfish politicians-even people like Macron who aren't up for re election again-only caring about the short-term energy price shock threatens to undermine the whole response. Counting on Britain and the US to allow Zelensky to make his own choices about what, if any, concessions to grant.

Macron is trash.

Let's defeat the russians for good to crush the fascists for good and to build a greater future

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1533125756536094722

[Storr]

Macron: Russia must not be humiliated in Ukraine

Typical cowardly form that confirms the worst stereotypes about France. The whole point of supporting Ukraine is to make sure the world knows that wars of aggression are harshly punished. That has to be a 'humiliation', or Russia will strike again. These selfish politicians-even people like Macron who aren't up for re election again-only caring about the short-term energy price shock threatens to undermine the whole response. Counting on Britain and the US to allow Zelensky to make his own choices about what, if any, concessions to grant.

Agree, partially.

Crimea is not on the table, so that is not really up for debate if we are being realistic. Moscow would rather nuke the UA roads to it than give it up.

Pre Feb occupied Donbas is also a must have "concession", although an autonomous region solution could work if Moscow was in a weak enough position. Keep in mind these areas are by now 90% on the Russian side, so simply occupying it would not work barring literal ethnic cleansing.

So if any is not really realistic.

Ukraine already tried an autonomous region solution with Crimea. Before Russia annexed it, the official title was the "Autonomous Republic of Crimea" with significantly greater autonomy than all other regions of Ukraine. Ukraine isn't going to accept such a solution again, only to get screwed over again years later. After all, they didn't accept the Minsk agreements with included autonomous status for Donetsk and Luhansk.

[pppolitics]

Macron: Russia must not be humiliated in Ukraine

Typical cowardly form that confirms the worst stereotypes about France. The whole point of supporting Ukraine is to make sure the world knows that wars of aggression are harshly punished. That has to be a 'humiliation', or Russia will strike again. These selfish politicians-even people like Macron who aren't up for re election again-only caring about the short-term energy price shock threatens to undermine the whole response. Counting on Britain and the US to allow Zelensky to make his own choices about what, if any, concessions to grant.

Agree, partially.

Crimea is not on the table, so that is not really up for debate if we are being realistic. Moscow would rather nuke the UA roads to it than give it up.

Pre Feb occupied Donbas is also a must have "concession", although an autonomous region solution could work if Moscow was in a weak enough position. Keep in mind these areas are by now 90% on the Russian side, so simply occupying it would not work barring literal ethnic cleansing.

So if any is not really realistic.

The only concession is that there wouldn't be occupation of Russia after Russia get kicked out of Ukraine.

[Omega21]

Ukraine already tried an autonomous region solution with Crimea. Before Russia annexed it, the official title was the "Autonomous Republic of Crimea" with significantly greater autonomy than all other regions of Ukraine. Ukraine isn't going to accept such a solution again, only to get screwed over again years later. After all, they didn't accept the Minsk agreements with included autonomous status for Donetsk and Luhansk.

The only concession is that there wouldn't be occupation of Russia after Russia get kicked out of Ukraine.

Fair points, the Donbas is definitely at least somewhat up for debate.

As for the second point, you guys genuinely believe UA will be able to regain Crimea while the current Russian regime is in power?

If so, I want what you are smoking, because I really want to believe it.

If you do not, UA not pursuing control of Crimea is in itself a compromise, meaning "if any" is out of the question.

[pppolitics]

Google Map view

[pppolitics]

Ukraine already tried an autonomous region solution with Crimea. Before Russia annexed it, the official title was the "Autonomous Republic of Crimea" with significantly greater autonomy than all other regions of Ukraine. Ukraine isn't going to accept such a solution again, only to get screwed over again years later. After all, they didn't accept the Minsk agreements with included autonomous status for Donetsk and Luhansk.

The only concession is that there wouldn't be occupation of Russia after Russia get kicked out of Ukraine.

Fair points, the Donbas is definitely at least somewhat up for debate.

As for the second point, you guys genuinely believe UA will be able to regain Crimea while the current Russian regime is in power?

If so, I want what you are smoking, because I really want to believe it.

If you do not, UA not pursuing control of Crimea is in itself a compromise, meaning "if any" is out of the question.

So as long as fools like Macron aren't in charge.

Appeasement doesn't work.

Russia must be humiliated and gain nothing, otherwise, it's just a recipe for future invasions.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Ukraine already tried an autonomous region solution with Crimea. Before Russia annexed it, the official title was the "Autonomous Republic of Crimea" with significantly greater autonomy than all other regions of Ukraine. Ukraine isn't going to accept such a solution again, only to get screwed over again years later. After all, they didn't accept the Minsk agreements with included autonomous status for Donetsk and Luhansk.

The only concession is that there wouldn't be occupation of Russia after Russia get kicked out of Ukraine.

Fair points, the Donbas is definitely at least somewhat up for debate.

As for the second point, you guys genuinely believe UA will be able to regain Crimea while the current Russian regime is in power?

If so, I want what you are smoking, because I really want to believe it.

If you do not, UA not pursuing control of Crimea is in itself a compromise, meaning "if any" is out of the question.

So as long as fools like Macron aren't in charge.

Appeasement doesn't work.

Russia must be humiliated and gain nothing, otherwise, it's just a recipe for future invasions.

Russia has kidnapped thousands of Ukrainians. Even if Ukraine were to retake all her territory, there would have to be some kind of negotiations for the return of these people. The threat of losing some part of Ukraine that Russia still holds seems like the strongest bargaining chip the Ukrainian government would have to ensure their return.

At the end of the day, the fate of up to hundreds of thousands of kidnapped people might matter more than an uncertain campaign to retake the (currently pro-Russian) Crimea. Perhaps that'd set a bad precedent for global geopolitics, but Ukraine is more likely to be concerned with her people, not the fate of a largely uncaring world.

[pppolitics]

Ukraine already tried an autonomous region solution with Crimea. Before Russia annexed it, the official title was the "Autonomous Republic of Crimea" with significantly greater autonomy than all other regions of Ukraine. Ukraine isn't going to accept such a solution again, only to get screwed over again years later. After all, they didn't accept the Minsk agreements with included autonomous status for Donetsk and Luhansk.

The only concession is that there wouldn't be occupation of Russia after Russia get kicked out of Ukraine.

Fair points, the Donbas is definitely at least somewhat up for debate.

As for the second point, you guys genuinely believe UA will be able to regain Crimea while the current Russian regime is in power?

If so, I want what you are smoking, because I really want to believe it.

If you do not, UA not pursuing control of Crimea is in itself a compromise, meaning "if any" is out of the question.

So as long as fools like Macron aren't in charge.

Appeasement doesn't work.

Russia must be humiliated and gain nothing, otherwise, it's just a recipe for future invasions.

Russia has kidnapped thousands of Ukrainians. Even if Ukraine were to retake all her territory, there would have to be some kind of negotiations for the return of these people. The threat of losing some part of Ukraine that Russia still holds seems like the strongest bargaining chip the Ukrainian government would have to ensure their return.

At the end of the day, the fate of up to hundreds of thousands of kidnapped people might matter more than an uncertain campaign to retake the (currently pro-Russian) Crimea.

Return those Ukrainians in return for no occupation of Russia.

[Omega21]

Russia has kidnapped thousands of Ukrainians. Even if Ukraine were to retake all her territory, there would have to be some kind of negotiations for the return of these people. The threat of losing some part of Ukraine that Russia still holds seems like the strongest bargaining chip the Ukrainian government would have to ensure their return.

At the end of the day, the fate of up to hundreds of thousands of kidnapped people might matter more than an uncertain campaign to retake the (currently pro-Russian) Crimea. Perhaps that'd set a bad precedent for global geopolitics, but Ukraine is more likely to be concerned with her people, not the fate of a largely uncaring world.

A currently pro-Russian and under the protection of Russian Nuclear Defensive Doctorine Crimea, I might add.

Return those Ukrainians in return for no occupation of Russia.

Not even my HOI4 playthroughs are this unrealistic lol

[pppolitics]

Russia has kidnapped thousands of Ukrainians. Even if Ukraine were to retake all her territory, there would have to be some kind of negotiations for the return of these people. The threat of losing some part of Ukraine that Russia still holds seems like the strongest bargaining chip the Ukrainian government would have to ensure their return.

At the end of the day, the fate of up to hundreds of thousands of kidnapped people might matter more than an uncertain campaign to retake the (currently pro-Russian) Crimea. Perhaps that'd set a bad precedent for global geopolitics, but Ukraine is more likely to be concerned with her people, not the fate of a largely uncaring world.

A currently pro-Russian and under the protection of Russian Nuclear Defensive Doctorine Crimea, I might add.

Return those Ukrainians in return for no occupation of Russia.

Not even my HOI4 playthroughs are this unrealistic lol

...and Ukraine should be put under US protection.

Does Russia dare threaten the US?

It will be crushed like a little bug.

[pppolitics]

An ideal solution is that Russia gets carved up among the great NATO powers (like Germany after WWII), but that doesn't seem to be in the cards right now.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I think you're getting well ahead of things and assuming certain outcomes where there'd be a lot of uncertainties, to put it politely. It is not at all obvious that an invasion of Russia (if it were even possible) would yield the return of captives.

[pppolitics]

I think you're getting well ahead of things and assuming certain outcomes where there'd be a lot of uncertainties, to put it politely. It is not at all obvious that an invasion of Russia (if it were even possible) would yield the return of captives.

What I like to see is a disarmed Russia that can't hurt a cat, but you are right there I am getting ahead of myself.

[The Mikado]

Omega: I think there's a difference between saying Ukraine is very unlikely to retake Crimea in the war and saying Ukraine should recognize that. They should maintain the threat of invading Crimea even if it's unlikely they ever are in a position to actually carry it out. Unilaterally taking things off the table, even things that aren't likely to actually happen, is foolish.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1533125756536094722

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1533317911003250695?s=20&t=nBzIUm...

[President Johnson]

I think you're getting well ahead of things and assuming certain outcomes where there'd be a lot of uncertainties, to put it politely. It is not at all obvious that an invasion of Russia (if it were even possible) would yield the return of captives.

What I like to see is a disarmed Russia that can't hurt a cat, but you are right there I am getting ahead of myself.

Russia needs to be demilitarized or its forces reduced to simple defense of actual Russian territory and de-Putinfied. Of course that's not going to happen in the near future, but the price for their agression needs to so high so that Putin either has to quit on Ukraine or just ousted. The guy definitely should be trialed for war crimes and crimes against humanity as well as political murders that he has ordered for years, including on foreign soil.

[CumbrianLefty]

Macron: Russia must not be humiliated in Ukraine

Typical cowardly form that confirms the worst stereotypes about France. The whole point of supporting Ukraine is to make sure the world knows that wars of aggression are harshly punished. That has to be a 'humiliation', or Russia will strike again. These selfish politicians-even people like Macron who aren't up for re election again-only caring about the short-term energy price shock threatens to undermine the whole response. Counting on Britain and the US to allow Zelensky to make his own choices about what, if any, concessions to grant.

Agree, partially.

Crimea is not on the table, so that is not really up for debate if we are being realistic. Moscow would rather nuke the UA roads to it than give it up.

Pre Feb occupied Donbas is also a must have "concession", although an autonomous region solution could work if Moscow was in a weak enough position. Keep in mind these areas are by now 90% on the Russian side, so simply occupying it would not work barring literal ethnic cleansing.

So if any is not really realistic.

Genuine question, is there any way of objectively assessing this?

(but have to say that 90% seems a bit high even now)

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1533125756536094722

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1533317911003250695?s=20&t=nBzIUm...

I wonder if there was a mistranslation in that quote because his full statement was that Russia controlled 70% of the city and Ukraine counterattacks got 20% back so it’s now split but the way he’s quoted here makes it sound like Russia was gaining

[jaichind]

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3509458-the-unpalatable-truth-in-ukraine/

"The unpalatable truth in Ukraine"

And the truth is, once we have eliminated all the impossible scenarios, the least improbable outcome of the war in Ukraine is a Russian victory.

It seems the DC establishment is preparing the way for a PR explanation of what they think is a Russia victory (I assume a limited Russian victory.)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3509458-the-unpalatable-truth-in-ukraine/

"The unpalatable truth in Ukraine"

And the truth is, once we have eliminated all the impossible scenarios, the least improbable outcome of the war in Ukraine is a Russian victory.

It seems the DC establishment is preparing the way for a PR explanation of what they think is a Russia victory (I assume a limited Russian victory.)

The article provides very little evidence for its claim that pushing Russia back to February 24 lines is “impossible”. It’s improbable because the political will to provide Ukraine with the best tools to ensure this outcome is likely to remain absent, but the author makes no case as to why it is certain that this will remain true.

I don’t know why opinions about how this conflict will develop are voiced with such confidence given the uncertainties of a hot war and the poor track record of expert predictions prior to and during the early stages of this conflict.

[jaichind]

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3509458-the-unpalatable-truth-in-ukraine/

"The unpalatable truth in Ukraine"

And the truth is, once we have eliminated all the impossible scenarios, the least improbable outcome of the war in Ukraine is a Russian victory.

It seems the DC establishment is preparing the way for a PR explanation of what they think is a Russia victory (I assume a limited Russian victory.)

The article provides very little evidence for its claim that pushing Russia back to February 24 lines is “impossible”. It’s improbable because the political will to provide Ukraine with the best tools to ensure this outcome is likely to remain absent, but the author makes no case as to why it is certain that this will remain true.

I don’t know why opinions about how this conflict will develop are voiced with such confidence given the uncertainties of a hot war and the poor track record of expert predictions prior to and during the early stages of this conflict.

BTW, I am not saying I agree with the assessments of the article only that it most likely refects the thinking of the DC establishment which could very be wrong. 

It mimics the Biden Op-ed in the WSJ where it pretty much said "We think that a total Russian defeat can be ruled out so we still need to co-exist with Putin.  Putin, here is the deal:  there is a limit to how much we will help Ukraine so please keep the conflict localized.  You two can just fight it out in the cage and we will also work to contain this conflict"