Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Too bad they just missed.
https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1520767099664277504

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1520819248997748736?s=20&t=-H-FHYoM...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Too bad they just missed.
https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1520767099664277504

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1520819248997748736?s=20&t=-H-FHYoM...

Killing the Chief of the Russian General Staff would have been an event of Moskva sinking proportions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I cannot see how Ukraine can resist this invasion.

But I didn't think Bosnians had a chance against the Serbs (Chetniks) in the 1990's either.

Putin does risk a lot here, so he will want this over short and sharp.

This has never been about repelling the initial invasion. Russia will overrun Ukraine if it really wants to.

The question is what happens after that.

So...anyone want to dunk on me for this? Worst take of mine in years. Never been happier to be wrong.

I think we all underestimated the impact that Western weapons deliveries are having on the war.
Go back to the battle for Hostomel airport. Had Russia won there, things would likely be much bleaker for Ukraine right now.

That was fought mostly without Western weapons, apart from a few anti-tank weapons - and even those only compete with locally produced/Russian-sourced anti-tank weapons. Ukraine mostly held Russia off with equipment that was either outdated Soviet tech or Ukrainian upgrades of this that were better than what Russia had managed to produce in the 30 years since the fall of the USSR.

The most likely Ukrainian reaction to Hostomel falling is to sink everything they can into a fight to get it back, isn't it?
If so, Hostomel falling, per se, isn't enough to make the situation an utter disaster. It's Russians holding it.

[Storr]

Based Scholz?

https://twitter.com/AlexLuck9/status/1520832426993684480?s=20&t=rigs9aRaUD-5...

https://twitter.com/TubunMuzuru/status/1520827047442014209?s=20&t=rigs9aRaUD...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Based Scholz?

https://twitter.com/AlexLuck9/status/1520832426993684480?s=20&t=rigs9aRaUD-5...

https://twitter.com/TubunMuzuru/status/1520827047442014209?s=20&t=rigs9aRaUD...

Scholz is kinda good in situations in which he's practically forced to do the right thing... problem is that he often avoids such situations in the first place.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ukrainian Air Force says that the "Ghost of Kyiv" doesn't exist. Instead the combat successes attributed to him were the work of several pilots from the 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade:


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61285833

[President Johnson]

Based Scholz?

https://twitter.com/AlexLuck9/status/1520832426993684480?s=20&t=rigs9aRaUD-5...

https://twitter.com/TubunMuzuru/status/1520827047442014209?s=20&t=rigs9aRaUD...

We need more of this!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[snip]

NATO Ukraine is basically a complete disaster for Russian geopolitical objectives. Whether or not NATO includes Ukraine is not just a choice for the Ukrainian nation, and it never has, regardless of what Ukraine's people or government thinks - and this will continue to be so. NATO, being a defensive alliance, has to weigh the interests of all its members over the sentiments of a potential member state, however much solidarity it feels with said potential member state.

That's why Ukraine was not and is currently not a NATO member. It was just too close to Russia; it would be an overextension. Additionally, the impetus just wasn't there.

This war has altered the ballgame. Now Russia has not only strengthened NATO, it has expanded it, with the likely entry of Sweden and Finland. Sentiment on the ground has changed.

The Russian state will have to devote a host of resources to protecting Russia's central heartland if Ukraine is a NATO member. The more it has to devote to protecting the central core, the less it can expend outside of that. This will strain both Russian geopolitical gambits, and the Russian federal budget itself.

NATO expansion was not and is still not innocuous for Russia. It represents an expansion of the American sphere into Europe, on lands the Soviet Union had firmly vassalized, and if Ukraine joins, that sphere will expand the lands of the Soviet Union itself.

The Northern European plain has little in the way of defensive terrain. The lands are generally quite flat, and the only breaks come in form of mountains like the Carpathians, and rivers like the Dnieper. This informs Russia's "more land=better" mentality. Russia has only ever been successfully invaded from the west, with only one exception (the Mongols). The Nazis, who killed tens of millions of Soviet citizens and were the greatest threat the Soviet Union ever faced, came from the west and expanded thousands of miles all the way to the Volga; it has became even easier to cross vast expanses of terrain quickly since then.

A Russia that has Ukraine under its control, either annexed or as a vassal/client, is much more secure and has entrenched itself against natural defensive barriers as well (the Carpathians).

Ukraine in NATO is an unacceptable security risk for Russia. It'd probably be for the best for all parties if Ukraine got mutual security guarantees and was required to be neutral a la Austria in 1955. Russia's security concerns are placated; Ukraine (which, lets not forget, means "borderlands"), is not the front lines for some international conflict and thus can focus on internal development; and America can focus on China. But Russia has to climb down for that to work, and Putin's dug in.

As bad as this war could be argued as going for Russia, Ukraine in NATO is still a nightmare scenario, one Russia cannot afford.
EDIT: I somehow forgot the Balts were in NATO when typing this post. If Baltic membership for NATO is bad for Russia, Ukrainian membership is ten times worse.

[KaiserDave]

“Russian security concerns” is a poor disguise for domination and control. They should not be given what they want. Russia has lost any chance to negotiate, once they lose the won they will not be consulted or listened to on Ukrainian security or internal affairs, nor should they be.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

“Russian security concerns” is a poor disguise for domination and control. They should not be given what they want.

I'm not advocating that we do what Russia wants. I'm establishing the reasoning for this war being rational from the Russian perspective.
If some hostile defensive alliance was expanding into our hemisphere, I'm sure we wouldn't want Mexico and Canada in it...

[Hindsight was 2020]

“Russian security concerns” is a poor disguise for domination and control. They should not be given what they want.

I'm not advocating that we do what Russia wants. I'm establishing the reasoning for this war being rational from the Russian perspective.
If some hostile defensive alliance was expanding into our hemisphere, I'm sure we wouldn't want Mexico and Canada in it...

I think you are giving too much legitimacy to Russian accusations that they have legitimate concerns that the eastern bloc entering NATO is a threat to invade Russia verse the actual concern that the eastern bloc enters NATO means Russia can’t bully them into compliance

[KaiserDave]

“Russian security concerns” is a poor disguise for domination and control. They should not be given what they want.

I'm not advocating that we do what Russia wants. I'm establishing the reasoning for this war being rational from the Russian perspective.
If some hostile defensive alliance was expanding into our hemisphere, I'm sure we wouldn't want Mexico and Canada in it...

That is not why Russia is attacking. Putin and his associates do not believe that Ukraine is a real country. They refuse to let Ukraine conduct its own foreign policy or internal affairs policy, this includes joining the EU or EU based organizations, not NATO. Even if there was no threat of Ukraine joining NATO, Russia would have hostile intentions. Compounded upon that is that Putin cannot accept democracies (even flawed ones) on his border.

[Virginiá]

“Russian security concerns” is a poor disguise for domination and control. They should not be given what they want.

I'm not advocating that we do what Russia wants. I'm establishing the reasoning for this war being rational from the Russian perspective.
If some hostile defensive alliance was expanding into our hemisphere, I'm sure we wouldn't want Mexico and Canada in it...

I think you are giving too much legitimacy to Russian accusations that they have legitimate concerns that the eastern bloc entering NATO is a threat to invade Russia verse the actual concern that the eastern bloc enters NATO means Russia can’t bully them into compliance

Yeah. Consider why they want to be part of NATO in the first place. Eastern Europe was subjugated by Russia for generations. Can't fault them for not wanting to return to that kind of dynamic.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

“Russian security concerns” is a poor disguise for domination and control. They should not be given what they want.

I'm not advocating that we do what Russia wants. I'm establishing the reasoning for this war being rational from the Russian perspective.
If some hostile defensive alliance was expanding into our hemisphere, I'm sure we wouldn't want Mexico and Canada in it...

I think you are giving too much legitimacy to Russian accusations that they have legitimate concerns that the eastern bloc entering NATO is a threat to invade Russia verse the actual concern that the eastern bloc enters NATO means Russia can’t bully them into compliance

Well, I think it's self-evident that NATO expansion renders Russia even more of a second-rate power than before. And Russian leaders care about that.

And if Ukraine is in NATO, then that means that lots of American troops, bombers, and other military assets could stationed a mere 360 miles from Moscow. And Russia will have to devote more resources to the center heartland. All this is basic. Forget about what we can assume will happen; think about what *could* happen. Think about how much options America has to force Russia to re-orient itself.

No matter how it unfolds, Russia loses on net at least in the short-term, and probably loses big.

[😥]

[snip]

NATO Ukraine is basically a complete disaster for Russian geopolitical objectives. Whether or not NATO includes Ukraine is not just a choice for the Ukrainian nation, and it never has, regardless of what Ukraine's people or government thinks - and this will continue to be so. NATO, being a defensive alliance, has to weigh the interests of all its members over the sentiments of a potential member state, however much solidarity it feels with said potential member state.

That's why Ukraine was not and is currently not a NATO member. It was just too close to Russia; it would be an overextension. Additionally, the impetus just wasn't there.

This war has altered the ballgame. Now Russia has not only strengthened NATO, it has expanded it, with the likely entry of Sweden and Finland. Sentiment on the ground has changed.

The Russian state will have to devote a host of resources to protecting Russia's central heartland if Ukraine is a NATO member. The more it has to devote to protecting the central core, the less it can expend outside of that. This will strain both Russian geopolitical gambits, and the Russian federal budget itself.

NATO expansion was not and is still not innocuous for Russia. It represents an expansion of the American sphere into Europe, on lands the Soviet Union had firmly vassalized, and if Ukraine joins, that sphere will expand the lands of the Soviet Union itself.

The Northern European plain has little in the way of defensive terrain. The lands are generally quite flat, and the only breaks come in form of mountains like the Carpathians, and rivers like the Dnieper. This informs Russia's "more land=better" mentality. Russia has only ever been successfully invaded from the west, with only one exception (the Mongols). The Nazis, who killed tens of millions of Soviet citizens and were the greatest threat the Soviet Union ever faced, came from the west and expanded thousands of miles all the way to the Volga; it has became even easier to cross vast expanses of terrain quickly since then.

A Russia that has Ukraine under its control, either annexed or as a vassal/client, is much more secure and has entrenched itself against natural defensive barriers as well (the Carpathians).

Ukraine in NATO is an unacceptable security risk for Russia. It'd probably be for the best for all parties if Ukraine got mutual security guarantees and was required to be neutral a la Austria in 1955. Russia's security concerns are placated; Ukraine (which, lets not forget, means "borderlands"), is not the front lines for some international conflict and thus can focus on internal development; and America can focus on China. But Russia has to climb down for that to work, and Putin's dug in.

As bad as this war could be argued as going for Russia, Ukraine in NATO is still a nightmare scenario, one Russia cannot afford.
EDIT: I somehow forgot the Balts were in NATO when typing this post. If Baltic membership for NATO is bad for Russia, Ukrainian membership is ten times worse.

You know, I damn give a sh**t on what Russia thinks about Ukraine's choice to join EU and/or NATO or not to join EU and/or NATO. If my people want to join NATO (and they want), why we should not do this? Only because we are supposed to be "Russian sphere of influence"? I guess, you now can see what "Russian sphere of influence" actually is. "Russian sphere of influence" is always about genocide of Ukrainian people and destroying our culture, our language.

If Ukraine was in NATO, there would be no war, no millions of lives destroyed, no tens of thousands of orphans, no cities wiped off the face of the earth. And for Russia Ukraine's membership in NATO would not pose any threat. NATO is a defense alliance, so membership in that alliance is a deterrent. But in Russia there is a stronger deterrent - nuclear weapons, so to talk about "Ukraine would threaten Russia" - is a) to retransmit Russia's false propaganda; b) an indicator of total misunderstanding of the situation.

On the other hand, Ukraine's membership in NATO would hit putin hard. I am not sure that if Ukraine was in NATO, he would stay in power. putin has built his rule, at least for the last 15 years, around "restoring Russia's former greatness." Ukraine's membership in NATO would not allow him to occupy Crimea, start a war in Donbass, which would hit his ratings inside Russia hard, and possibly become his political end.

And finally, I think that Ukrainians, by shedding their blood, defending own homeland and the whole free world, deserved to be taken into account, not just said "we need to take into account Russia's opinion, and we don't care about Ukrainians."

[😥]

“Russian security concerns” is a poor disguise for domination and control. They should not be given what they want.

I'm not advocating that we do what Russia wants. I'm establishing the reasoning for this war being rational from the Russian perspective.
If some hostile defensive alliance was expanding into our hemisphere, I'm sure we wouldn't want Mexico and Canada in it...

I think you are giving too much legitimacy to Russian accusations that they have legitimate concerns that the eastern bloc entering NATO is a threat to invade Russia verse the actual concern that the eastern bloc enters NATO means Russia can’t bully them into compliance

Well, I think it's self-evident that NATO expansion renders Russia even more of a second-rate power than before. And Russian leaders care about that.

And if Ukraine is in NATO, then that means that lots of American troops, bombers, and other military assets could stationed a mere 360 miles from Moscow. And Russia will have to devote more resources to the center heartland. All this is basic. Forget about what we can assume will happen; think about what *could* happen. Think about how much options America has to force Russia to re-orient itself.

No matter how it unfolds, Russia loses on net at least in the short-term, and probably loses big.

Rezekne (Latvia) - Moscow (Russia) - 674 km
Kharkiv (Ukraine) - Moscow (Russia) - 761 km

Anything else?

[😥]

“Russian security concerns” is a poor disguise for domination and control. They should not be given what they want.

I'm not advocating that we do what Russia wants. I'm establishing the reasoning for this war being rational from the Russian perspective.
If some hostile defensive alliance was expanding into our hemisphere, I'm sure we wouldn't want Mexico and Canada in it...

And the last thing I will say so far, the only reason why Putin started this war is the desire to destroy the Ukrainian nation and the Ukrainian state, and to kill all the people who preserve the Ukrainian language, traditions and culture. He is imbued with hatred for everything Ukrainian, and not only Ukrainian. And the sooner you understand this, the better. There is no other reason why he started this war, and the search for such reasons is self-deception and/or a desire to justify Russia's actions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You know, I damn give a sh**t on what Russia thinks about Ukraine's choice to join EU and/or NATO or not to join EU and/or NATO. If my people want to join NATO (and they want), why we should not do this? Only because we are supposed to be "Russian sphere of influence"? I guess, you now can see what "Russian sphere of influence" actually is. "Russian sphere of influence" is always about genocide of Ukrainian people and destroying our culture, our language.

If Ukraine was in NATO, there would be no war, no millions of lives destroyed, no tens of thousands of orphans, no cities wiped off the face of the earth. And for Russia Ukraine's membership in NATO would not pose any threat. NATO is a defense alliance, so membership in that alliance is a deterrent. But in Russia there is a stronger deterrent - nuclear weapons, so to talk about "Ukraine would threaten Russia" - is a) to retransmit Russia's false propaganda; b) an indicator of total misunderstanding of the situation.

On the other hand, Ukraine's membership in NATO would hit putin hard. I am not sure that if Ukraine was in NATO, he would stay in power. putin has built his rule, at least for the last 15 years, around "restoring Russia's former greatness." Ukraine's membership in NATO would not allow him to occupy Crimea, start a war in Donbass, which would hit his ratings inside Russia hard, and possibly become his political end.

And finally, I think that Ukrainians, by shedding their blood, defending own homeland and the whole free world, deserved to be taken into account, not just said "we need to take into account Russia's opinion, and we don't care about Ukrainians."

Well, as I said, NATO membership or not is a matter of the collective security of all its members (the same thing will weigh on any future Russian application for NATO membership; Ukraine, if a NATO member, would be a big voice in influencing such a decision). It's an anti-Russian defensive alliance in its current form. Of course, what does and does not contribute to the collective security of all its members can and frequently does change. And with all due respect to what you feel about Russia, it's a country three times larger than Ukraine, almost twice as large as all other countries in Europe; we have to consider how it'll behave or can be assumed to behave (while also not let that control what we do). If letting in Ukraine severely hampers security in Europe, then don't let in Ukraine, simple as that.

The current status quo is mainly shaped by American desire to expand into ex-Warsaw Pact territory, and by European states who want to counterweigh Russian influence. This war has actually been the only the second big move Russia's made to try to change the playing field. It's not going well for them, and that's good news for the world.

But we need to be open in our options and consider the future of security in Europe. This war has significantly changed the status quo already. It is very highly rational at this point to at least consider Ukrainian NATO membership. Russia's weaker than it's been before, and even more importantly, Ukraine is stronger than it's been in eons; Ukraine isn't the utterly feeble country it was in 2014.

NATO is not some league of democracies, but that's not an argument against Ukrainian membership. The deciding factor is if Russia is weak enough that it cannot stop such a thing. Putin's mistake is our opportunity.

[President Johnson]

“Russian security concerns” is a poor disguise for domination and control. They should not be given what they want.

I'm not advocating that we do what Russia wants. I'm establishing the reasoning for this war being rational from the Russian perspective.
If some hostile defensive alliance was expanding into our hemisphere, I'm sure we wouldn't want Mexico and Canada in it...

And the last thing I will say so far, the only reason why Putin started this war is the desire to destroy the Ukrainian nation and the Ukrainian state, and to kill all the people who preserve the Ukrainian language, traditions and culture. He is imbued with hatred for everything Ukrainian, and not only Ukrainian. And the sooner you understand this, the better. There is no other reason why he started this war, and the search for such reasons is self-deception and/or a desire to justify Russia's actions.

Agreed, he already said it in public and wrote it. According to his revisionist view of history, Ukraine doesn't exist as a nation or culture. He just thinks it's Russians, like he sees Belarus as part of the Russian Empire as well. Sometimes people just need to take him by his word when he makes such statements.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

“Russian security concerns” is a poor disguise for domination and control. They should not be given what they want.

I'm not advocating that we do what Russia wants. I'm establishing the reasoning for this war being rational from the Russian perspective.
If some hostile defensive alliance was expanding into our hemisphere, I'm sure we wouldn't want Mexico and Canada in it...

I think you are giving too much legitimacy to Russian accusations that they have legitimate concerns that the eastern bloc entering NATO is a threat to invade Russia verse the actual concern that the eastern bloc enters NATO means Russia can’t bully them into compliance

Well, I think it's self-evident that NATO expansion renders Russia even more of a second-rate power than before. And Russian leaders care about that.

And if Ukraine is in NATO, then that means that lots of American troops, bombers, and other military assets could stationed a mere 360 miles from Moscow. And Russia will have to devote more resources to the center heartland. All this is basic. Forget about what we can assume will happen; think about what *could* happen. Think about how much options America has to force Russia to re-orient itself.

No matter how it unfolds, Russia loses on net at least in the short-term, and probably loses big.

Rezekne (Latvia) - Moscow (Russia) - 674 km
Kharkiv (Ukraine) - Moscow (Russia) - 761 km

Anything else?

NATO is Dangerously Exposed in the Baltics
The current NATO military presence in the Baltics leaves a lot to be desired. It's doubtful, the merits of placing loads of US military assets in such an exposed area. It smacks of putting all our eggs in one basket.
If Ukraine is in NATO, on the other hand...it is in fact Kaliningrad that might be exposed.
I notice you have not at all refuted my points about options and what NATO *can* do if Ukraine is among its members.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1520838878155976704?t=__H_7fUR5QLrk9BERNao...

Russian hacks here (especially I want to hear something from BigSerg and Russian Bear), tell me about "This is not genocide" and "Putin's demands are reasonable".

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1520838878155976704?t=__H_7fUR5QLrk9BERNao...

Russian hacks here (especially I want to hear something from BigSerg and Russian Bear), tell me about "This is not genocide" and "Putin's demands are reasonable".

Russian bear has not logged into his account since February 23

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1520838878155976704?t=__H_7fUR5QLrk9BERNao...
Russian hacks here (especially I want to hear something from BigSerg and Russian Bear), tell me about "This is not genocide" and "Putin's demands are reasonable".

I don't recall seeing Russian Bear since this war began. Maybe he was jailed for taking part in an anti-war protest or something; I dunno exactly, no one knows.

[😥]

Skip

Russian bear has not logged into his account since February 23

Thanks. I didn't know that. This time, from February 24 to my injury, I did not follow the forum very often, so I missed it. It will be necessary to follow, maybe someday he will appear here.

Skip

I don't recall seeing Russian Bear since this war began. Maybe he was jailed for taking part in an anti-war protest or something; I dunno exactly, no one knows.

Thanks. I doubt it. I do not remember exactly, but I think he once wrote that he lives in Belarus. But I'm not sure about that. In any case, there may be many reasons, at least - the intensification of repression for browsing certain foreign sites, who knows. Although I would like to hear his comments on the war and all these events.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Skip

Russian bear has not logged into his account since February 23

I didn't know that. This time, from February 24 to my injury, I did not follow the forum very often, so I missed it. It will be necessary to follow, maybe someday he will appear here.

Skip

I don't recall seeing Russian Bear since this war began. Maybe he was jailed for taking part in an anti-war protest or something; I dunno exactly, no one knows.

I doubt it. I do not remember exactly, but I think he once wrote that he lives in Belarus. But I'm not sure about that. In any case, there may be many reasons, at least - the intensification of repression for browsing certain foreign sites, who knows. Although I would like to hear his comments on the war and all these events.

So would I.
I distinctly remember him saying Putin was too smart to start a war and even implied it wouldn't go well if he did.
Would be nice to hear from more Slavs in general and what they think. But not a lot of Slavs post on this forum.
Does Putin care about blocking people from accessing Atlas forum? Only the Holy Spirit knows at this point.