Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Another Russian heist in Ukraine, Scythian gold looted from a museum in Melitopol.

The heist started when a mysterious man in a white lab coat showed up at the museum.

A squad of Russian soldiers stood behind him, with guns, watching eagerly.

Using long tweezers and special gloves, the man in the white coat carefully extracted scores of special gold artifacts more than 2,300 years old from cardboard boxes in the cellar of a museum in Melitopol, a southern town in Russian-occupied territory, Ukrainian officials said. The gold items were from the Scythian empire and dated back to the fourth century B.C.

Then the mysterious expert, the Russian soldiers and the gold disappeared.

For years now, Ukraine has been locked in a complicated dispute with Russia over collections of Scythian gold that several museums in Crimea had lent to a museum in Amsterdam. After Russia seized Crimea in 2014, Ukraine pleaded with the Amsterdam museum not to return the gold. Russia demanded the museum do just that. A court has ruled in Ukraine’s favor and the gold remains in Amsterdam.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/30/world/europe/ukraine-scythia-gold-museum-russia.html?smid=url-copy

[pppolitics]

https://mobile.twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1520463695813484545

So many Russian generals have been killed that would think that they are dime a dozen.

[NOVA Green]

We now have the name of one of the Russian Generals allegedly killed by the Ukrainian strike on the Command and Control location outside of Izyum.


https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1520480816966647808?s=20&t=FY5eyXgM...

[NOVA Green]

Phillips Obrien's tweet on the strike:

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1520494059118383105?s=20&t=FY5eyX...

[NOVA Green]

Lest we forget about Snake Island, reported Ukrainian UAV strikes yesterday.


https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1520153411945127936?s=20&t=FY5eyXgMKI...

[Storr]

We now have the name of one of the Russian Generals allegedly killed by the Ukrainian strike on the Command and Control location outside of Izyum.


https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1520480816966647808?s=20&t=FY5eyXgM...

As one twitter comment said, "General? He looks like Mike from accounting". A reddit post claimed his current position was Chief of Staff of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army. Simonov's biography from what looks to be a publication from 2014-16, translated through Google Translate. I guess he was promoted to general in the intervening period:

"Deputy Chief of the Electronic Warfare Troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Colonel Andrei Dmitrievich Simonov was born on June 29, 1966 in the village of Baranovka, Verkhnekamsky District, Kirov Region. After graduating from the Tomsk Higher Military Command School of Communications in 1987, he served in the electronic warfare units as an operational duty officer, platoon commander, head of the command post, and deputy battalion commander for operational work. In 2000 graduated from the  M. V. Frunze Military Academy. After the academy, he went from a senior officer of the electronic warfare service of the Siberian Military District to the head of the electronic warfare service of the headquarters of the Vostok regional command. In 2010, he graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff and was appointed Chief of the EW Service of the Headquarters of the Western Military District. Since August 2014, he has been Deputy Chief of the EW Troops of the RF Armed Forces. He was awarded nine medals of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, including the medal "For Military Valor" I degree."

https://docplayer-com.translate.goog/42759499-Yuriy-illarionovich-lastochkin.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc

[jaichind]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/29/russia-cuts-key-interest-rate-to-14percent-says-inflation-could-hit-23percent-this-year.html

"Russia cuts key interest rate to 14%, says inflation could hit 23% this year"

With RUB stabilizing, Russian Central banks cut rates to 14% from 17% to deal with clear economic contraction within Russia.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

We now have the name of one of the Russian Generals allegedly killed by the Ukrainian strike on the Command and Control location outside of Izyum.


https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1520480816966647808?s=20&t=FY5eyXgM...

As one twitter comment said, "General? He looks like Mike from accounting". A reddit post claimed his current position was Chief of Staff of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army. Simonov's biography from what looks to be a publication from 2014-16, translated through Google Translate. I guess he was promoted to general in the intervening period:

"Deputy Chief of the Electronic Warfare Troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Colonel Andrei Dmitrievich Simonov was born on June 29, 1966 in the village of Baranovka, Verkhnekamsky District, Kirov Region. After graduating from the Tomsk Higher Military Command School of Communications in 1987, he served in the electronic warfare units as an operational duty officer, platoon commander, head of the command post, and deputy battalion commander for operational work. In 2000 graduated from the  M. V. Frunze Military Academy. After the academy, he went from a senior officer of the electronic warfare service of the Siberian Military District to the head of the electronic warfare service of the headquarters of the Vostok regional command. In 2010, he graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff and was appointed Chief of the EW Service of the Headquarters of the Western Military District. Since August 2014, he has been Deputy Chief of the EW Troops of the RF Armed Forces. He was awarded nine medals of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, including the medal "For Military Valor" I degree."

https://docplayer-com.translate.goog/42759499-Yuriy-illarionovich-lastochkin.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc

Do you remember the in-over his head nerdy middle management type selling pills from the factory to Nacho in Better Call Saul?
He’s a dead ringer.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1520466096662405120

[Middle-aged Europe]

German Greens held a one-day party convention today. The (generally more left-wing) Green youth organization filed a motion that would have shot down the 100 billion Euro special budget to increase readiness of the German military, but that motion failed to carry a majority among delegates.

Generally speaking, it almost seemed to be a bit of a taboo to oppose the military aid for Ukraine there. If anything, the issue were it is deemed "acceptable" within the Green Party to hold a critical viewpoint is Germany's own military spending. Ideologically speaking, that is probably easily explained again if the military aid for Ukraine is seen as a form of humanitarian assistance for a country in need... then it becomes something that is directly rooted in earlier "foreign or humanitarian aid" positions of the Greens like their "open borders" approach to the 2015 refugee crisis, except that it now leads to a full turn towards a hawkish foreign policy position.

The more critical position towards Germany's own military spending that still exists among certain factions of the party is on the other hand a remnant of their pacifist past, rooted in Germany's own WWII history in which the military had played a not so shining role. In short: Ukrainians taking up arms is good, Germans taking up arms is (still) bad. Noteworthy speech from British-born Baden-Württembergian state parliament member Catherine Kern (naturalized as a German citizen in 2007) in that regard who argued that the Greens should adopt a more positive view of their own military that is more reminiscent of the role the British Army plays in the society of the UK.

Meanwhile, a campaign event with foreign minister Annalena Baerbock in Schleswig-Holstein had to be cancelled due to an attack with butyric acid... not on people, but on the location the rally was supposed to be held. Identity of the assailants is still unknown.

[NOVA Green]

We now have the name of one of the Russian Generals allegedly killed by the Ukrainian strike on the Command and Control location outside of Izyum.


https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1520480816966647808?s=20&t=FY5eyXgM...

As one twitter comment said, "General? He looks like Mike from accounting". A reddit post claimed his current position was Chief of Staff of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army. Simonov's biography from what looks to be a publication from 2014-16, translated through Google Translate. I guess he was promoted to general in the intervening period:

"Deputy Chief of the Electronic Warfare Troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Colonel Andrei Dmitrievich Simonov was born on June 29, 1966 in the village of Baranovka, Verkhnekamsky District, Kirov Region. After graduating from the Tomsk Higher Military Command School of Communications in 1987, he served in the electronic warfare units as an operational duty officer, platoon commander, head of the command post, and deputy battalion commander for operational work. In 2000 graduated from the  M. V. Frunze Military Academy. After the academy, he went from a senior officer of the electronic warfare service of the Siberian Military District to the head of the electronic warfare service of the headquarters of the Vostok regional command. In 2010, he graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff and was appointed Chief of the EW Service of the Headquarters of the Western Military District. Since August 2014, he has been Deputy Chief of the EW Troops of the RF Armed Forces. He was awarded nine medals of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, including the medal "For Military Valor" I degree."

https://docplayer-com.translate.goog/42759499-Yuriy-illarionovich-lastochkin.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc

So not really an expert or SME on the Russian Order of Battle and Military Officer positions, but still seems like this a bit of big deal.

Not quite sure what exactly a Russian General overseeing Electronic Warfare Day-to-Day might look like within the current context of the Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine, but pretty sure it would likely involve at minimum coordination of Russian units involving secure communications, coordination with Russian Air Commanders, links with Russian Intelligence agencies, etc...

If it is true that Ukrainian military capabilities "smoked" the Russian's main Dude overseeing EW as part of "special operations in Ukraine", really seems like Russia is operating a much deeper "fog of war" scene than the Ukrainian Military.

We still haven't seen any reporting about the alleged two Russian Generals KIA in Kherson Region.

Regardless, it raises real questions about Russian Military capabilities and force protection when they can't even prevent their own Command and Control station and top guy who theoretically should have had timely intel of incoming Ukrainian strikes.

[NOVA Green]

Follow up to my post and the role of Electronic Warfare within the Russian Military...

Should be a freebie, but will just selectively quote regardless.

Electronic warfare (EW) holds a special place within the concept of operations of the Russian Ground Forces. It is referred to as radio-electronic warfare (Радиоэлектронная борьба) or REB, and it is seen as the means by which the Russian armed forces can degrade the combat systems of an opponent to such an extent that any technological superiority will be severely compromised.



Russia echelons its REB troops at two primary levels; the Motorised Rifle Brigade is provided with a company of EW troops with broad-spectrum capabilities for tactical warfare. The Army Group also includes an EW battalion with equipment and capabilities specifically targeted at the operational systems that Russian planners fear. Above that, there are the EW brigades, of which there are five, one for each of Russia’s four military districts, with two brigades in the Western Military District.



One concern that frequently features in Russian military news outputs is the massed aerospace missile attack, a phrase they abbreviate to MRAU. The MRAU is essentially the combined use of air, space, land and sea assets to deliver long-range air and missile strikes against the critical nodes of Russian manoeuvre formations as well as critical infrastructure.

This element of Russia’s air defences is well understood. However, one element that is often overlooked when painting this picture is the EW brigade and its equipment. The EW brigade is designed to provide wide-area protection of critical nodes within a Russian formation. It can be task-organised to support certain operations or have its effects combined to achieve effects against complex targets.



It is provided with the 1RL257 Krasukha-4 as well as the 1L260 Krasukha-2, two 8x8 vehicles carrying EW payloads designed to jam the operational systems of joint surveillance target attack radar system (JSTAR) aircraft such as the Northrop Grumman E-8 and airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft like the Boeing E-3 Sentry respectively.



The Krasukha-2 is used to jam S-band (2.3GHz to 2.5GHz/2.7GHz to 3.7GHz) airborne radars, and Krasukha-4 is effective against X-band and Ku-band airborne radars (8.5GHz to 10.68GHz and 13.4GHz to 14GHz/15.7GHz to 17.7GHz respectively). TASS states that Krasukha-4 specifically is intended to protect command posts, troops, GBAD systems and industrial facilities from radar reconnaissance and precision weapons. It employs broadband active jamming.

https://defence.nridigital.com/global_defence_technology_mar22/russia_electronic_warfare

[dead0man]

Vladimir Putin, meet the sunk-cost fallacy. That's what the war has seemingly become for Russia at this point.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520167137507221506?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520170795112280067?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

One thing I keep noting that this guy clearly gets but a lot of people don't is that people dramatically overestimate the size of Russia's population.

Fun comparison (both rounded to the nearest 5 million):

Population of Russia: ~145 million
Population of Mexico: ~130 million

Think about that for a second. Would you be saying "Mexico has unlimited manpower, it can keep sending wave and wave of people into Guatemala, Guatemala has no chance here?" in the event that war was taking place? No, of course not. Russia is basically Mexico X 1.1 in terms of people. It's a way way smaller country than people think it is.

And that population is disproportionately elderly.

and alcoholic.  And female.

[Frodo]

The E.U. is weighing a lengthy phase-out for Russian oil.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1520535153604366336
The battle of Donbas continues to be a fruitless endeavor for Russia as at this point it’s just waiting for Ukraine to deliver the counter attack knockout punch

[The Mikado]

I cannot see how Ukraine can resist this invasion.

But I didn't think Bosnians had a chance against the Serbs (Chetniks) in the 1990's either.

Putin does risk a lot here, so he will want this over short and sharp.

This has never been about repelling the initial invasion. Russia will overrun Ukraine if it really wants to.

The question is what happens after that.

So...anyone want to dunk on me for this? Worst take of mine in years. Never been happier to be wrong.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I cannot see how Ukraine can resist this invasion.

But I didn't think Bosnians had a chance against the Serbs (Chetniks) in the 1990's either.

Putin does risk a lot here, so he will want this over short and sharp.

This has never been about repelling the initial invasion. Russia will overrun Ukraine if it really wants to.

The question is what happens after that.

So...anyone want to dunk on me for this? Worst take of mine in years. Never been happier to be wrong.

I think we all underestimated the impact that Western weapons deliveries are having on the war.
Go back to the battle for Hostomel airport. Had Russia won there, things would likely be much bleaker for Ukraine right now.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is starting to feel like the battle for Kyiv all over again. I don’t see how Russia can pull anything off with the slow place/little gains, the causality rate they are sustaining, and Ukraine successfully counterattacks around Kharkiv. It’s more of a question of do they pick up a flee like they did in Kyiv to avoid a devastating loss or push forward and risk their Izium forces getting encircled from the rear by the Kharkiv forces?

[The Mikado]

This is starting to feel like the battle for Kyiv all over again. I don’t see how Russia can pull anything off with the slow place/little gains, the causality rate they are sustaining, and Ukraine successfully counterattacks around Kharkiv. It’s more of a question of do they pick up a flee like they did in Kyiv to avoid a devastating loss or push forward and risk their Izium forces getting encircled from the rear by the Kharkiv forces?

People are impatient. The very fact that Ukraine is confident enough to make movements around Kharkiv and advance in that direction during the middle of the Russian offensive is a clear sign that the Ukrainians are confident they are in no danger of their lines breaking. If they were, they wouldn't do the luxury of this push north.

Anyway, I think the Russians probably have another 10 days or so of offensive in them before they grind to a halt this time, for all the little good pushing Ukrainian lines 5 miles back or so will do them (none, really). The question is what Ukraine ends up doing once this offensive winds down and Ukraine has the initative.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is starting to feel like the battle for Kyiv all over again. I don’t see how Russia can pull anything off with the slow place/little gains, the causality rate they are sustaining, and Ukraine successfully counterattacks around Kharkiv. It’s more of a question of do they pick up a flee like they did in Kyiv to avoid a devastating loss or push forward and risk their Izium forces getting encircled from the rear by the Kharkiv forces?

People are impatient. The very fact that Ukraine is confident enough to make movements around Kharkiv and advance in that direction during the middle of the Russian offensive is a clear sign that the Ukrainians are confident they are in no danger of their lines breaking. If they were, they wouldn't do the luxury of this push north.

Anyway, I think the Russians probably have another 10 days or so of offensive in them before they grind to a halt this time, for all the little good pushing Ukrainian lines 5 miles back or so will do them (none, really). The question is what Ukraine ends up doing once this offensive winds down and Ukraine has the initative.

Agreed and it will be interesting to see what Ukraine does. Most likely is they will attack from Kharkiv area into the heart of the Belgorod-Izium line and cut that line in half. If pulled off correctly this could be a smaller scale Tannenberg style disaster for Russia and likely leads to a general collapse

[2952-0-0]

I don't want to be "that guy", but the Russians have been able to repel the Ukrainian counteroffensive toward Kherson from the northwest direction. Also, we still haven't heard the names of the two Russian generals who were supposedly killed in a Ukrainian strike on their command post. Every other time the Ukrainians claimed to have killed Russian generals, they always immediately announced their names, but not in this case. The fact that the Russians are able to plunder farm produce from the Kherson region indicates they are confident in their control.

[Frodo]

This is starting to feel like the battle for Kyiv all over again. I don’t see how Russia can pull anything off with the slow place/little gains, the causality rate they are sustaining, and Ukraine successfully counterattacks around Kharkiv. It’s more of a question of do they pick up a flee like they did in Kyiv to avoid a devastating loss or push forward and risk their Izium forces getting encircled from the rear by the Kharkiv forces?

The WW2 battle of Kursk might be a better analogy, with the Russian army in the place of the Wehrmacht. 

[Storr]

Taking out your opponent's modern high tech attack helicopters with anti-tank missiles: based

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1520542063116365827?s=20&t=ISz5HIl...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1520663575953608706
https://twitter.com/HerbScribner/status/1520659944676073473

[John Dule]

Nancy getting some hot stock tips from Zelensky before the next arms order is placed.