Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

It's like they don't know camoflauge exists.

https://twitter.com/marxish101/status/1513595729582907398?s=20&t=eE48RZLhT1P...

[Person Man]

It's like they don't know camoflauge exists.

https://twitter.com/marxish101/status/1513595729582907398?s=20&t=eE48RZLhT1P...

Command and Conquer at least looked like something out on skinamax when I first started noticing girls.

[MaxQue]

Putin is probably thinking real life is Command and Conquer at this point.

[NOVA Green]

Heroes:

It shouldn't be held against them if they surrender. They've already lasted nearly seven times longer than the fabled "Brest Fortress" Soviet defenders of 1941.  

How many Ukrainian soldiers are risk of being captured in Mariupol?

Don't think anybody has a good "Grok" on that one...

Seem to recall seeing something a few weeks back about an estimated 3k Ukrainian Defenders?

Plus Comm's are mostly down, and anything other than a Sat Phone would likely go through Russian Telecom Intercepts, or create a giant target sign if an Elon Musk system.

In addition Ukraine, UK, US, and European SIGINT are picking up chatter are unlikely to share, lest it provide Intel to the Invader / Occupier.

Still, pretty smart move to have the UK National and West-Midlander be the guy with the SAT Phone, to help prevent Russian atrocities against an elite Ukrainian Marine Unit that fought their hardest against overwhelming odds.

[NOVA Green]

Essentially these 'special filtration camps' are way-stations before the unfortunate Ukrainian civilians are sent to the 21st century version of the Soviet gulags:

The Kremlin plans to send 100,000 Ukrainians to Siberia and the Arctic Circle, report says, as Zelenskyy warns of 'filtration camps' for captured people

They are Nazis. Like I said, if Ukraine gets conquered, I’m probably not voting for Biden again.

Angry Weasel... not sure what one has to do with the other, let alone the idea that Russia will somehow ending up controlling 100% of Ukraine

I believe that was one of the first on this thread to start "spreading the Gospel" regarding filtration camps.

My concern is less with the somewhat dubious concept that Russia has done a mass deportation of 100k Ukrainians to remote regions in Russia (Sounds dubious in the extreme), but rather what might have happened to individuals detained in the "Filtration Camps" of Male Military Age and Tattoos.

Strongly suspect that there might have been massive war crimes committed against that population, but quite possibly the bodies have already been incinerated.

Although I am skeptical about these reported numbers, especially considering the sourcing, would definitely not discount the fact, as I have consistently posted about since Bucha, that most likely we will not see the true extent of Russian Military atrocities until after Post '14 parts of Russian Invaded and Occupied Ukraine have been liberated.

If I feel for every single bit of "click-bait" would end up driving myself on a crazier train even than Ozzy.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Unfortunately there have been no follow up reports on the 2k convoy strike so it seems to of been Twitter rumors but good news it was confirmed that Ukraine hit the convoy in Izumi and destroyed a bunch of equipment https://en.lb.ua/news/2022/04/10/12887_armed_forces_ukraine_destroyed.html

[NOVA Green]

Talk about it and tell us what you are really thinking...

Are we totally into "Baghdad Bob" territory here or what?

Damn... makes some young misadventures with "Blow" and hitting a glass pipe a few times a couple decades back while "flying high again" looked like tons more sober than "Crackhead Simonyan" from RT.

Best things most allies of Ukraine did was banning RT on Day 1....

Imagine if American and English Citizens were allowed to listen to NAZI and Italian Fascist Propaganda during WW II?

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1514040178591117317?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[KaiserDave]

Ukraine needs tanks, jets, and offensive weapons. That is the only way Russia will be totally expelled from Ukraine.

[NOVA Green]

BBC article on Mariupol:

Tons more from the link below.

There are growing signs Russia could be on the brink of fully capturing Mariupol, the besieged southern port city which has suffered a devastating, six-week assault.

It's believed Ukraine's forces have been forced back to the port area and the Azovstal plant, a massive iron and steel works from where they had launched counter-attacks for weeks.

Ukraine's military reportedly managed over the weeks to resupply troops with kit including night and thermal vision goggles, portable battery charging packs and even anti-tank munitions; but it became increasingly hard.

"Ultimately, the city was surrounded so soon into the invasion that there was never a chance to build up supplies," says Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at defence think tank the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

"They've already held out far, far longer than any external analysis would have predicted possible. So it's difficult to say how much longer they can go on," he says, adding that they have "achieved extraordinary results with very little".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61089043

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if anyone in Ukraine has dedicated the "My King is alive!" song to Zelenskyy.

I know For Today toured in Europe but I don't think they made it Ukraine...but there has to be plenty of people in the Ukrainian hardcore scene who know who they are.

[NOVA Green]

Supply-Chain Shortages for certain key military US Arms Manufactures are starting to cause direct negotiations between US GVT Officials and military suppliers for the US War Machine.

A top U.S. defense official said on Tuesday that the Pentagon would convene a classified meeting with the leaders of the biggest American military contractors on Wednesday to discuss stepped-up assistance to Ukraine, including ways improve air defenses, anti-ship missiles and weapons to find and destroy Russian artillery.

Washington’s $1.7 billion in assistance to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s invasion, including the provision of thousands of Stingers and Javelin missiles, has forced American military contractors to step up production of older weapons systems, both for Ukraine’s need and to replenish the United States military’s stocks.

The meeting on Wednesday, announced by Kathleen H. Hicks, the deputy secretary of defense, will include leaders of eight large military contractors, such as Raytheon Company and Lockheed Martin Corporation. The meeting will discuss how to overcome any potential supply problems — both to replenish American weapons stocks that have been drawn down to help Ukraine and to keep Kyiv supplied as the war continues.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/12/world/ukraine-russia-war-news/the-pentagon-will-meet-with-major-military-contractors-to-plan-aid-for-ukraine

[NOVA Green]

Although the overwhelming majority of Atlas Posters, and a likely majority or regular posters on this thread might not be "experts in war" from a higher level perspective, we do have an "Inner Geek" in all of us and a Professor who likely studied WW II Military Wars and is now having to cover obscure topics as part of a compare / contrast deal when it comes to both WW II in Ukraine and now Russian Invasion of Ukraine '22 War.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1513941989338894340?s=20&t=VDIPic...

[NOVA Green]

I wonder if anyone in Ukraine has dedicated the "My King is alive!" song to Zelenskyy.

I know For Today toured in Europe but I don't think they made it Ukraine...but there has to be plenty of people in the Ukrainian hardcore scene who know who they are.

BRTD... you are fundamentally wrong about musical tastes in Central and Eastern Europe in so many ways.

Evangelical Christian type bands are much more likely to be primarily using vocals with small mixtures of string instruments, such as pianos, violin, and viola as part of their attempt to spread the Gospel.

https://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2008/januaryweb-only/105-22.0.html

My Step Mother spread the Gospel in small tight knit communities in Belarus. Although she was a former Maoist way back in East Bay Area in the late '60s tight with various members of SDS and The Panthers, a bit later on she gradually recovered her large Wyoming Lutheran background, and ended up later in life becoming both an Evangelical Christian while also an Internationalist Christian, supporting the Rights of all of the Global Oppressed.

Not sure if you have ever travelled around the joint, but really both Punk and Heavy Metal in Central & Eastern Europe are really kinda not like what they were in the dayz of the early / mid '90s when I lived in the joint.

Hip-Hop is really where it is at when it comes to the music of the young rebels from "behind the wall".

Hell--- remember when I was living in a small Town in West Germany, packing a hammer inside my open sleeve black hoodie, black jeans, and docs.

At least in East Berlin I knew the terrain between the Neo-Nazis and the Antifas...

Run into a bunch (4-6) of Yugoslavian refugees with short hair and bomber jackets, but no patches, right near a major housing project as I'm doing a 25 Minute Walk towards the main drag.

The Project had tons of brand new basketball courts, and had it been day time might have not been as willing to pull my gear out in self-defense.

They were probably 3-5 years younger than me, but asking direction to a main drag literally two blocks down looked more like a "jack job" to me than anything else.

Still, having lived in East Berlin with Polish friends, mustered my best Ausländer Deutsch with my best Polish accent, told them the direction of the street.

Still--- Hip-Hop is actually much more of the language of the Youth these days than either Punk or Metal, let alone random Christian Metal Bands from some random country on tour within Central and Eastern Europe.

BRTD... you just caused me to waste 20+ minutes of my life on this post!!!

[DINGO Joe]

Ukraine needs tanks, jets, and offensive weapons. That is the only way Russia will be totally expelled from Ukraine.

Plus, time and training to learn how to use those things.   The idea that they have a bunch of guys who know how to drive tanks or fly planes effectively seems pretty far fetched to me. 

[NOVA Green]

Important but neglected... Western Capitalist Nations now investing heavily in Ukraine.

The World Bank is planning financial support to Ukraine worth $1.5bn (£1.2bn) to help keep critical services running as the country fights a fresh assault by Russia. The bank said the funds would be used to support the continuation of key government services, including wages for hospital workers, pensions for elderly people and social programmes for vulnerable people.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/12/world-bank-approves-770m-ukraine-services-funds-russia

[NOVA Green]

ISW 4/12/22 Posted a recent update:

The Russian military continues efforts to reconstitute forces damaged in the failed attack
on Kyiv in the Belgorod and Voronezh areas but has not yet sent those forces back into
Ukraine to resume fighting. Ukrainian reports suggest that morale and will to fight
remain low in some Russian units and areas. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 12
that elements of the Russian 41st Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division are relocating to
Belgorod and Voronezh Oblasts.1
The Ukrainian Defense Intelligence also claimed on April 12 that Russian troops continued to struggle
with low morale and that promised financial incentives to participate in combat in Ukraine have not
been delivered to some units as promised.2 The report stated that servicemen of the 47th Guards Tank
Division of the 1st Tank Army failed to receive promised additional payment for participating in
operations in Ukraine and that military leadership ignored appeals for payments.3 The Ukrainian GUR
claims that Russian troops are refusing to participate in fighting due to the number of bodies returning
to Russia from Ukraine and that the Russian military is shipping bodies in smaller batches to avoid
causing panic in local communities.

Subordinate main effort—Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Capture the
entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in
Donbas)
Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations in Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and
Popasna, primarily relying on artillery attacks, although they engaged in urban combat in Rubizhne on
April 12.8 The Ukrainian General Staff reported limited fighting in other parts of Donetsk on April 12.9
Social media users geolocated footage released by Chechen forces on April 11 to Rubizhne, confirming
the presence of Chechen Rosgvardia units in the northeastern neighborhood of the settlement.10 The
Chechen units are reportedly entrenching in the vicinity of Rubizhne, which suggests that they intend
to go over to the defensive at least in some parts of the battlespace.11 It is not yet clear why the Chechens
would adopt a defensive posture at that place at this time.
Russian forces continue to deploy ad-hoc units to Donbas, with social media users observing the 2nd
Cossack Battalion leaving Orenburg on April 7, but the Russian command has not yet committed new
units or units previously withdrawn from other axes to the offensive.

https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20April%2012.pdf

[Astatine]

[...]
It's not that Steinmeier was wrong, which he admitted, I still consider it disrespectful to declare a the head of state of an ally that gave billions in aid persona non grata. It's not very wise diplomatically and may undermine the cause in the long run. I have a feeling this decision is largely viewed negative here across the political spectrum.

And Melnyk, well, while I understand his frustration, he should at least tone down his rhetoric. If he wants more pressure on leaders, fine, but then he needs to win public support. And I'm afraid the he accomplishes the opposite here.

Agree! Couldn't believe it until I saw the link. This is a major diplomatic affront and the most stupid thing the Zelensky administration could have done. It really does not matter if you believe Steinmeier is/was pro-Russia or whatever - this is completely meaningless. He still is the (a) highest representative of (b) the arguably most powerful EU member state, and (c) a seasoned diplomat who has already admitted that he was mistaken in the past. So you are supposed to treat him with respect. This is a short-sighted and childish maneuver that will only complicate German-Ukrainian relations.

As does Melnyk. The guy behaves like a colonial officer and his hyperaggressive tone is evidently counterproductive. I know of quite a few people who have formed a negative opinion about Ukraine just because of him.

Steinmeier himself is completely meaningless. He's a figurehead without any real political influence whose visit would have been nothing than an empty talk photo op. What could he have brought apart from some signs of "solidarity"? Can you defeat Russia with solidarity? The Baltics and Poland have - and Poland can still very well be seen critical for other things like rule of law etc. - true leadership on the international stage, actually delivering weapons, making themselves energy-independent from Russia - And they were repeatedly warning Germany of what was gonna happen if they continue to rely on Russia in the past years, but yeah they were just sabre-rattling and trying to provoke war (https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/nato-in-osteuropa-steinmeier-kritisiert-saebelrasseln-gegenueber-russland-1.3040243). Those evil Eastern Europeans trying to destroy our good economic relationships with Russia!

The colonial officer here is Germany, knowing once again what's best for others - "Am deutschen Wesen soll die Welt gewesen". Or how else do you explain Steinmeier's behavior, who never really cared for Eastern European concerns (like in 2008 when Germany successfully blocked a NATO Membership Action Plan for Ukraine & Georgia) and recommended Ukraine what they should do with Donbas in his toxic Steinmeier-Formula, which paved the way to legimitize Russia's behavior?
Maybe this is not childish but very well thought through, because Ukrainians don't wanna see the guy who told them like some colonial ruler how to split up their country and who shared homoromantic moments with Sergey Lavrov in their country that's being literally slaughtered and raped right now for a photo op appointment? It's an affront of Steinmeier to not consider that maybe he shouldn't show up unless Germany finally delivers - his advisors should have known that, and maybe he would've been welcomed after some significant progress is achieved.

Germany sticks out for delaying, thinking, being busy with itself and blocking right now. Scholz can show otherwise if he comes to Ukraine, instead of empty calls of "We are with you". Steinmeier's visit would've brought nothing. Among Ukrainians, Germany is seen as 5th most hostile country right now right after Russia, Belarus, China and Hungary. Maybe, just maybe, there's some very legit reasons for that.

Yeah I know enough people who have a negative opinion about Germany thanks to the behavior of its people in charge.
PS: Will Moscow-Manuela Schwesig finally resign after it was revealed that Gazprom had way more influence contrary to earlier beliefs?

[NOVA Green]

DoD briefing transcript 4/12/22:

Not going to bother quoting but is a free website and worth 3-4 minutes of an Atlas Poster's life for a read.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2997296/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing-april-12-2022/

[NOVA Green]

Not quite sure what's going on here, but looks like some sabotage on railroad tracks within Russia close to the war front?


https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1513801608940773376?s=20&t=ADOx0hw7XfyWI0...

[NOVA Green]

Looks like we now have some geolocation of the sites of "alleged" mass grave sites left behind by the Russians after they fell back from Chernihiv.

As I feared, the extent of atrocities will likely grow as Ukrainians are increasingly liberating territory occupied by Russian Forces.

https://twitter.com/Cen4infoRes/status/1513226980455550985?s=20&t=ADOx0hw7Xf...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Not quite sure what's going on here, but looks like some sabotage on railroad tracks within Russia close to the war front?

I was just wondering if Ukraine had considered trying to blow up the Crimean bridge. Technically it would be an attack on their own internationally recognized territory.

[Helsinkian]

What is Macron thinking? The Serbs were closer to Bosniaks than the Russians are to Ukrainians, but that didn't stop them from doing the genocide at Srebrenica.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1514174397577367555

[Middle-aged Europe]

What is Macron thinking? The Serbs were closer to Bosniaks than the Russians are to Ukrainians, but that didn't stop them from doing the genocide at Srebrenica.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1514174397577367555

Translation (maybe): "I'm running for president right now."

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What is Macron thinking? The Serbs were closer to Bosniaks than the Russians are to Ukrainians, but that didn't stop them from doing the genocide at Srebrenica.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1514174397577367555

I'm guessing most people would have a very hard time telling Tutsis and Hutus apart.

[rc18]

What is Macron thinking? The Serbs were closer to Bosniaks than the Russians are to Ukrainians, but that didn't stop them from doing the genocide at Srebrenica.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1514174397577367555

I can't see Macron getting an invite to Kyiv any time soon...