Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[compucomp]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3809437-wheat-futures-add-to-14-year-highs-up-32-so-far-this-week

Wheat Futures are up by 30% !

Ugh, a lot of African and Middle Eastern countries depend on Russia or Ukraine for their wheat imports. The sowing season is supposed to start in Ukraine soon, but that's not happening. Western sanctions against Russia will also disrupt Russian imports. There will have to be carve-outs for grain exports for developing countries.

Yeah this could be really ugly, combined with other factors we may actually have a famine in certain areas

I guess the winners are China, who will buy the surplus wheat from Russia probably at a discount, and American wheat producers as the article mentions. Hm... is this a plot by Joe Biden to win back those Midwestern farmers? /s

[NOVA Green]

Don't believe this has been posted yet, but per Washington Post a few hours back:

"Key U.S. provider of Internet to Russia cuts service there, citing ‘unprovoked invasion of Ukraine’

A leading American Internet service provider, Cogent Communications, said it was severing relations with Russian customers on Friday, a move that gives Ukrainian officials another victory in their campaign to isolate Russia online.

...

Cogent, based in Washington, D.C., is one of the world’s largest providers of what’s known as Internet backbone — roughly comparable to the interstate highway system, providing the primary conduit for data flows that local companies then route to individual domains. Schaeffer said Cogent’s networks carry about one-quarter of the world’s Internet traffic. Cogent has several dozen customers in Russia, with many of them, such as state-owned telecommunications giant Rostelecom, being close to the government. "



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/04/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news/#link-REGVY6JEV5GFFEL4EVO6HVLQIA

Here's an article which covers all of these things plus more tons more as a feature story regarding the social media and internet wars.... (Sorry folks you gonna have to throw in a few bucks or free trial, but it's worth it!)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/04/russia-ukraine-internet-cogent-cutoff/

[lfromnj]

Can the US just pay Valve to block Russian players from CSGO/Dota to fuel increasing anger

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3809437-wheat-futures-add-to-14-year-highs-up-32-so-far-this-week

Wheat Futures are up by 30% !

Ugh, a lot of African and Middle Eastern countries depend on Russia or Ukraine for their wheat imports. The sowing season is supposed to start in Ukraine soon, but that's not happening. Western sanctions against Russia will also disrupt Russian imports. There will have to be carve-outs for grain exports for developing countries.

Yeah this could be really ugly, combined with other factors we may actually have a famine in certain areas

Expect a potential wave of instability in the Arab World if governments aren't careful.

[NOVA Green]

WP story just posted on why it is so difficult to move military hardware from Nations supplying weapons to Ukrainian forces to where they are needed:

"Getting weapons to Ukraine: Western allies scramble to deliver

By Karen DeYoung and Michael Birnbaum9:32 p.m.

As Russia’s military buildup pressed against Ukraine’s border in late January and early February, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov celebrated the arrival of weapons from the West, illustrating his near-daily tweets with photographs of smiling men in uniform unloading heavy pallets from cargo aircraft.

“The 8th [American] bird has arrived in Kyiv!” Reznikov exulted on Feb. 5. “Our partners from #USA have sent more than 650 tons of defense ammunition to Ukraine! To be continued.”

The last such message came on Feb. 23, the day before Russia invaded.

There have been no known air deliveries since then. Ukraine’s airspace is now part of a war zone that no Western nation wants to enter, even as the United States and its allies and partners pledge to deliver more weaponry for the fight.

NATO territory to the west — where Ukraine borders Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania — provides the only still-uncontested ground access. But east-west roads that can handle truck transport into Ukraine are few, and most are clogged with refugees fleeing the country.

“There are stockpiles in Poland,” where much of the weaponry coming from outside is being gathered, said Ed Arnold, a research fellow of European security at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute. From there, “there are only two main supply routes to Kyiv,” one near the Belarus border, and a second farther south.

Internal Ukrainian logistics “have been okay thus far but need to improve rapidly,” Arnold said. “They might have three days of ammunition left in some areas.”

....

Before the invasion began, Britain air-delivered 2,000 NLAW antitank missiles, which combat photographs indicate are now in use by Ukrainian forces. “We’ve actually been flowing more stuff forward, uniforms, protective equipment, some munitions and weaponry,” Heappey said. “We reach a stage now, though, where because combat operations are ongoing, routes for the Ukrainians to get the stuff into the country are much more challenging.”

....

In addition to drawing on its own weapons stocks, the United States has to approve the transfer of any U.S.-origin equipment from third countries.

“When we get that list of current needs, we’re going through and figuring out: what partners do we know that have U.S. origin equipment to meet the requirement, then reaching out to individual countries and saying ‘Ukrainians are in need of, say, antitank missiles. We know you’ve got 300 of them, do you have any excess. … would you consider transferring them?’ ” the State Department official said.

....

Poland declined to elaborate on its role as a principal conduit of weapons aid. “For security reasons, which are obvious at the moment, we cannot inform you about the details,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement.

....

Some of Ukraine’s asks are more difficult to provide. Despite reports that the United States, or NATO, is considering sending Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries, a U.S. official said that was not likely. “They don’t come flat-packed with an Allen wrench. You need years of training and a whole infrastructure for sustainment,” the State Department official said. “Right now, that’s not an option.”

...

Inside Ukraine, “right now, they’re getting infiltration routes set up” to transmit weapons, said Arnold of RUSI. He said there are “probably some organized crime elements to support it … this is weapons smuggling, essentially. It happens the world over” by people who “either support the cause or think they can make a lot of money out of it. Conflicts like this suck in all types of people.”

....


"






https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/04/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news/#link-IXWIR5BCSBHFBOU4YSKS56H5Y4

[NOVA Green]

Samsung dumps Russian market:

"Samsung has suspended all shipments to Russia, the South Korean technology giant said in a statement on Saturday. The company had the biggest share of Russia’s smartphone market in the third quarter of 2021, according to market research by the International Data Corporation. Samsung said in the statement that it was sending $6 million in humanitarian aid for people in the region, including refugees. The aid includes $1 million in consumer electronics."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/04/world/russia-ukraine

[NOVA Green]

Switzerland () goes hard against Russia:

"Switzerland imposes sanctions on Russia, breaking with tradition of neutrality.

GENEVA — Switzerland targeted Russia with sweeping financial and business sanctions on Friday over its invasion of Ukraine. The new measures were in addition to sanctions announced four days ago that broke with the country’s long tradition of neutrality and fell in line with action taken by the European Union.

The government said it was freezing the assets of individuals listed by the European Union who were closely connected to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. It also banned transactions with Russia’s central bank and instituted measures to cut off Russian financial institutions from the SWIFT financial messaging system as part of an effort by the United States and its European allies to sever Russia from the international banking system.

Switzerland also banned exports to Russia of dual-use technology that could have military or security applications. It halted supply of some goods and services to the oil industry and exports of technology used in the aviation and space industries. It also banned a range of services for these sectors, including insurance and repair.

..."


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/04/world/russia-ukraine/switzerland-imposes-sanctions-on-russia-breaking-with-tradition-of-neutrality

[NOVA Green]

Not quite sure what exactly this means, but am assuming this is not good for the Russian Economy.

Perhaps one of our Atlas Capitalist Comrades could explain further?


"FTSE Russell Removes Russian Bonds From Indexes

FTSE Russell said Friday that it would drop Russian bonds from its fixed-income indexes.

The company said it had received feedback from people in the market who said there was a "complete inability for international investors to repatriate bond proceeds in ruble and non-ruble denominated assets" from the Russian government and bond issuers.

It has also been difficult to figure out what the securities are worth right now after Western sanctions and market closures have made it tough to trade. The Russian ruble just recorded its worst week against the dollar since 1998 and the country's debt has been sliding.

There has been "a complete or near-complete lack of price discovery mechanisms for such securities," the company said.

FTSE Russell's move follows its prior decision to drop Russian stocks from its indexes. Index providers MSCI Inc. and S&P Dow Jones Indices have taken similar steps.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-04/card/ftse-russell-removes-russian-bonds-from-indexes-dlo2KtSJF1jVhovNCNlW

[NOVA Green]

WSJ: Awesome article worth a read, especially the Atlas Capitalists to devour:

(Not going to post excerpts since nobody really cares and tired of spitting in the wind)

How the West Unplugged Russia From the World’s Financial Systems

Western financiers severed practically every artery of money between the country and the rest of the globe, in some cases going beyond sanctions



https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-ukraine-sanctions-banks-finance-11646428069?st=sb8v9tvkmfssq5e&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[NOVA Green]

I think I might just stop posting on this thread or minimize, since it doesn't really appear anybody gives an "eff".

Maybe better to shift and share news to my social network on Facebook, where at least it will get a much greater reach both domestically and internationally.

[WMS]

Remember what I had said about those unencrypted Russian coms? Yeah

Relatedly:

<tweet snip>

Or just played something very embarrassing. That’s be funny.

Or something really annoying, like all Alvin and the Chipmunks music or Jingle Bells sung by barking dogs.

Now now, so far all the human abuses have been on one side; let’s not change that-

[WMS]

I think I might just stop posting on this thread or minimize, since it doesn't really appear anybody gives an "eff".

Maybe better to shift and share news to my social network on Facebook, where at least it will get a much greater reach both domestically and internationally.

Sorry man, I can only afford my NYT, The Atlantic, and Reuters subscriptions right now.

[Frodo]

I think I might just stop posting on this thread or minimize, since it doesn't really appear anybody gives an "eff".

Maybe better to shift and share news to my social network on Facebook, where at least it will get a much greater reach both domestically and internationally.

Hardly any of us are subscribed to the Wall Street Journal, or the Washington Post or New York Times.

That paywall.....  

[Frodo]

Pentagon: 'Vast majority' of $350M in lethal aid to Ukraine has been delivered

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think I might just stop posting on this thread or minimize, since it doesn't really appear anybody gives an "eff".

Maybe better to shift and share news to my social network on Facebook, where at least it will get a much greater reach both domestically and internationally.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who reads your posts in this thread with interest.  They are appreciated.  I don't usually comment on them because I don't have much to add to their content.

[compucomp]

Not quite sure what exactly this means, but am assuming this is not good for the Russian Economy.

Perhaps one of our Atlas Capitalist Comrades could explain further?


"FTSE Russell Removes Russian Bonds From Indexes

FTSE Russell said Friday that it would drop Russian bonds from its fixed-income indexes.

The company said it had received feedback from people in the market who said there was a "complete inability for international investors to repatriate bond proceeds in ruble and non-ruble denominated assets" from the Russian government and bond issuers.

It has also been difficult to figure out what the securities are worth right now after Western sanctions and market closures have made it tough to trade. The Russian ruble just recorded its worst week against the dollar since 1998 and the country's debt has been sliding.

There has been "a complete or near-complete lack of price discovery mechanisms for such securities," the company said.

FTSE Russell's move follows its prior decision to drop Russian stocks from its indexes. Index providers MSCI Inc. and S&P Dow Jones Indices have taken similar steps.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-04/card/ftse-russell-removes-russian-bonds-from-indexes-dlo2KtSJF1jVhovNCNlW

Companies like FTSE, S&P Dow Jones, etc publish indices which are weighted averages of securities prices to represent the general behavior of various parts of the market, in this case various Russian securities may be part of emerging markets indices or corporate bond indices. What is happening is that these companies are removing the Russian securities from these index calculations and replacing them with other securities. The effect on Russia is that ETFs and mutual funds that were tracking these indices will sell the Russian securities to buy the replacements, so yes, it is detrimental to the price of those securities. However the main reason for the change is that Western investors may want to avoid investing in Russia, or a Western government has sanctioned some of these securities, so these indices adjust to keep their business.

[NOVA Green]

I think I might just stop posting on this thread or minimize, since it doesn't really appear anybody gives an "eff".

Maybe better to shift and share news to my social network on Facebook, where at least it will get a much greater reach both domestically and internationally.

Apologies to my Atlas fellow posters on this very thread...   

Think I might have just been having a moment and becoming increasingly depressed with what is going on in Ukraine, and maybe trying to figure out if my investment on a small section of the Blogosphere is really worth it compared to trying to spread the news elsewhere.

Thanks for those of you who have said basically "keep what you're doing on Atlas", despite the fact that frequently in certain threads we can become our own giant echo chamber, and perhaps not "spreading the gospel" in communities that might not have as much easy access to info, let alone following the Russian Invasion of Ukraine nearly as closely as the rest of us.

Sometimes it feels hopeless as just passive viewers trapped within the Society of the Spectacle.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think I might just stop posting on this thread or minimize, since it doesn't really appear anybody gives an "eff".

Maybe better to shift and share news to my social network on Facebook, where at least it will get a much greater reach both domestically and internationally.

Please continue posting! Your contributions are much appreciated!

[It’s so Joever]

The Russian army is getting close to the Yuznoukrainsk power plant. Interestingly, they avoided other towns in the area and are going straight for the plant. It seems taking Ukraine’s energy is their strategy.

[NOVA Green]

So... here's something I've been thinking about for the past 2-3 days, and not wall of text, which apparently some people find an annoying posting trait on my part.

So early on in the financial reporting it was estimated that Russia was spending $10 Billion / Day in Ukrainian military activities.

I am assuming these would be estimated additional costs beyond regular budgeted Russian military expenses.

We know that the Russian Gvt Financial Reserves are somewhere around $650 Billion.

Many of the Russian Financial assets are held in overseas financial institutions which are currently unavailable to the Russian Gvt.

Despite dramatic shift in Russian financial holdings away from the Dollar, Pound, and Euros and increasing shift towards Gold and currency from other countries, it's pretty clear that Putin's "slush fund" is much lower than $650 Billion.

At what point does the cost of war in Ukraine start to dramatically drain Putin's stash to the point where Russia needs to go deficit financing to borrow money from elsewhere?

Do we have anybody here who can break this down in greater detail and is the math totally off?

[NOVA Green]

Singapore now joins the sanction regime against the Kremlin per CNN an hour ago:



"Singapore unveils sanctions against Russia

From CNN’s Jake Kwon in Seoul

Singapore announced a list of sanctions aimed at Russia on Saturday, including export control of strategic items and financial measures.

“We will impose export controls on items that can be directly used as weapons to inflict harm on or to subjugate the Ukrainians, as well as items that can contribute to offensive cyber operations,” said the country's foreign ministry in a statement.

Under the sanctions:

Singapore Customs will reject all permit applications to Russia involving all items listed as military goods, electronics, computers, and “Telecommunications and Information Security."

All financial institutions in Singapore will be prohibited from pursuing transactions or establishing business relations with major Russian financial institutions including VTB Bank, VEB.RF, Promsvyazbank, and Bank Rossiya.

Singapore will prohibit transactions or the facilitation of fundraising for the Russian government and Central Bank of Russia or any entity owned by them.

Singapore will prohibit providing financial services in the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the transport, telecommunication, and energy sector.

Digital payment token service providers are prohibited from facilitating any transactions "that could help to circumvent these financial measures."

"
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-04-22/index.html

[NOVA Green]

Russian Forces attack British Television Journalists in Ukraine per The Guardian:


"Sky News journalists evacuated after being shot at by Russian ‘death squad’

Footage shows team’s vehicle being attacked by a Russian ambush squad on Monday near Kyiv

"A Sky News crew has been evacuated back to the UK from Ukraine after journalists were shot during an ambush by a suspected Russian “death squad” on Monday.

The team of five were attacked while out in a car, after unsuccessfully trying to visit the town of Bucha near Kyiv.

Chief correspondent with Sky News, Stuart Ramsay, along with camera operator Richie Mockler were shot – Ramsay in the lower back while Mockler took two rounds in his body armour.

Kamila Valieva of the Russian Olympic Committee during training on Friday
British journalists receive death threats from Russia over Valieva controversy
Read more
Footage broadcast by the news organisation shows them approaching a junction when the car starts to be shot at.

Initially, according to an account by Ramsay, they thought that it was a Ukrainian army checkpoint firing at them – and they can be heard shouting that they are journalists and asking for their attackers to stop.

The crackle of gunfire can be heard and the flash of bullets flying past their car can be seen, as the attack was captured on camera.

“I do recall wondering if my death was going to be painful,” Ramsay said, recounting the moments before he was shot. “But what amazed me was that [being shot] didn’t hurt that bad. It was more like being punched, really.”

A house on fire following shelling on the town of Irpin, west of Kyiv, Ukraine.
Russia steps up onslaught after Ukraine ‘narrowly’ escapes nuclear disaster
Read more
Eventually the group, including producers Martin Vowles and Dominique Van Heerden, as well as local producer Andrii Lytvynenko managed to escape from the car and jump down an embankment at the side of the road.

They eventually found refuge in a nearby garage, and were rescued under the cover of darkness hours later by Ukrainian police. The journalists were later told that the gunmen were a saboteur Russian reconnaissance squad.

“It was professional, the rounds kept smashing into the car - they didn’t miss,” Ramsay said.

He added: “We were very lucky. But thousands of Ukrainians are dying, and families are being targeted by Russian hit squads just as we were, driving along in a family saloon and attacked.

“This war gets worse by the day.”

"





https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/british-journalists-shot-by-russian-saboteur-death-squad

[NOVA Green]

Good Updated Story about US Military Supplies to Ukraine going back a bit... much longer article so gotta' ensure I don't over quote, but tons more in the bag.

"As war loomed, U.S. armed Ukraine to hit Russian aircraft, tanks and prep for urban combat, declassified shipment list shows

By Karoun Demirjian and Alex Horton
Today at 10:13 p.m. EST

The United States drastically enhanced its shipments of lethal military aid and protective equipment to Ukraine as the prospect of a Russian invasion became more apparent and then a reality, according to a declassified accounting of transfers and sales reviewed by The Washington Post.

The list indicates that as early as December, the Pentagon was equipping Ukrainian fighters with arms and equipment useful for fighting in urban areas, including shotguns and specialized suits to safeguard soldiers handling unexploded ordnance. Over the last week, the Biden administration has increased such shipments, sending Stinger antiaircraft missile systems for the first time and further augmenting Kyiv’s supply of antitank Javelin missiles and other ammunition.

Taken together, the variety, volume and potency of firepower being rushed into the war zone illustrate the extent to which the United States sought to prepare the Ukrainian military to wage a hybrid war against Russia, even as President Biden has expressly ruled out inserting American troops into the conflict.

Western allies tightlipped about how they move military aid into Ukraine

“This is a continuous process. We are always, always looking at what Ukraine needs, and we’ve been doing this for years now,” a senior defense official told reporters Friday on the condition of anonymity under ground rules established by the Pentagon. “We have just accelerated our process of identifying requirements and accelerated our consultations as well with the Ukrainians, talking to them daily, as opposed to periodic meetings that we did before this crisis.”

John Kirby, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, declined to comment. The list of materiel reviewed by The Post generally tracks with the administration’s broad public statements about the transfers. It does not contain any information designated classified.

....

It affirms that the Biden administration has sent Stinger man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, to Ukraine in the last several days, weapons that would aid soldiers targeting Russian aircraft. Those were provided alongside shipments of Javelin missiles and launchers, a mainstay of military assistance to Ukraine since 2018, as well as ammunition.

About $240 million of the $350 million in military assistance that was approved in late February has already been transferred to Ukraine, according to a senior defense official.

...."



https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/04/us-weapons-ukraine/

[NOVA Green]

Inside footage from the Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant as it was being attacked per NYT...

"‘Stop firing’: A look inside the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as Russian forces attacked.

A video received by The Times gives a glimpse inside the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine as it was being attacked by Russian forces on Friday morning. In the video, a warning is issued in Russian over the facility’s loudspeakers, apparently directed at the soldiers outside.

“Stop firing at the nuclear facility,” a voice says. “Immediately stop firing. You are endangering the safety of the entire world. The operation of a crucial part of Zaporizhzhia’s plant could be damaged. We will not be able to restore it.”

In earlier videos, military vehicles and personnel could be seen firing missiles at buildings inside the nuclear complex; at least one building was set ablaze. There has been no sign of an increase in radiation levels, though a reactor sustained some damage. Russian forces now control the plant.

The video of the warnings was sent to The Times by a source with ties to the local government. It appears to have been filmed inside the nuclear complex and matches archival videos and photographs of the plant reviewed by The Times’s Visual Investigations team.

A clock seen on the wall bears the approximate time of the attack on Friday. A sign reads “35 years; Block 3” — an apparent reference to the start of operations in the block. Construction of the plant began in 1979, and by 1987, 35 years ago, four power units were in operation, according to the website for Energoatom, a state-run enterprise that operates all nuclear plants in Ukraine.

"



https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/04/world/russia-ukraine/stop-firing-a-look-inside-the-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-as-russian-forces-attacked

[NOVA Green]

Brazil: Boris Johnson called Bolsonaro to discuss Russian Invasion of Ukraine per CNN:

"British PM Boris Johnson called Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro over war in Ukraine

From CNN's Camilo Rocha in São Paulo and Jaide Garcia

"British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Thursday to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to CNN affiliate CNN Brasil.

The British leader reminded Bolsonaro that Brazil was a “vital” ally during the second World War, and that Bolsonaro’s voice was “crucial” in this moment of crisis, CNN Brasil reported.

A spokesperson for Johnson said both leaders agreed on "demanding an urgent ceasefire" and agreed that "peace must prevail."

According to a statement from Johnson's spokesperson, the prime minister added that "innocent civilians are being killed and cities destroyed, and the world cannot allow President Putin’s aggression to be successful.”

CNN reached out to Brazil's government for comment and has not received a response.

Some context: Bolsonaro has so far avoided condemning or sanctioning Russia, saying Brazil was taking a "neutral" stance.

He argued sanctions would impact the Brazilian economy as well, pointing out that the country's agriculture depended on Russian fertilizers.

During a weekly livestream on social media Thursday, Bolsonaro said, “Brazil remains in a balanced position and we don’t have the capacity to solve this issue."

"

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-04-22/index.html