Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[AndyHogan14]

This would be totally unexpected (so I'm taking this with a Javelin tube full of salt). But, if the DPR is losing cities of 240,000 residents, oof:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498842138389397509?s=20&t=EIHjPSKvX...

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498843379114942472?s=20&t=EIHjPSKvX...

I almost wonder if the people living in the DPR/LPR might **actually** greet the Ukrainian armed forces as liberators if they able to advance into separatist controlled territory. I cannot imagine it has been all sunshine and roses living in those areas. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that they will be able to move far into the separatist areas though (if this is true) considering the situation in the south.

[Tintrlvr]

The separatists are incompetent losers who had to be saved from total defeat by regular Russian army intervention multiple times. They're currently acting as a pinning force in Donbas to fix Ukrainian forces in place to be hit on the flanks by the Russian thrust from the south and northeast.

Which means advances against them might feel good but are actually strategic mistakes; better to hold what you have.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Anyway, this seems like a reasonable analysis of the war to me

https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1498797741329338371

Russia will win the conventional phase in a month or two. But the struggle for Ukrainian independence will be generational. Yet to be seen if Russia can build an effective and legitimate occupation government.

[AndyHogan14]

Russia will win the conventional phase in a month or two. But the struggle for Ukrainian independence will be generational. Yet to be seen if Russia can build an effective and legitimate occupation government.

That will never be possible. Effective perhaps, but their puppet regime will never be legitimate in the eyes of the Ukrainian people or the west for that matter.

[AndyHogan14]

The separatists are incompetent losers who had to be saved from total defeat by regular Russian army intervention multiple times. They're currently acting as a pinning force in Donbas to fix Ukrainian forces in place to be hit on the flanks by the Russian thrust from the south and northeast.

Which means advances against them might feel good but are actually strategic mistakes; better to hold what you have.

I don't know. I am no military strategist, but if the Russians have to come in and prop up the DPR (not unlike how Austria had to be propped up by Germany in WWI), then that takes focus away from other parts of the invasion.

[KaiserDave]

Ukrainians despise the Russian government, they will never accept a Russian imposed regime. There is nobody who will support it. Former Yanukovych voters are now diehard anti Russia hardliners. They will fight a guerrilla war forever if that is what it takes.

[Person Man]

This would be totally unexpected (so I'm taking this with a Javelin tube full of salt). But, if the DPR is losing cities of 240,000 residents, oof:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498842138389397509?s=20&t=EIHjPSKvX...

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498843379114942472?s=20&t=EIHjPSKvX...

I almost wonder if the people living in the DPR/LPR might **actually** greet the Ukrainian armed forces as liberators if they able to advance into separatist controlled territory. I cannot imagine it has been all sunshine and roses living in those areas. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that they will be able to move far into the separatist areas though (if this is true) considering the situation in the south.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FfZDqT_0uPI

[Storr]

Anyway, this seems like a reasonable analysis of the war to me

https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1498797741329338371

Russia will win the conventional phase in a month or two. But the struggle for Ukrainian independence will be generational. Yet to be seen if Russia can build an effective and legitimate occupation government.

15-20 years?! Putin will probably be dead by then, he's nearly reached the average lifespan of a Russian, 73, and already passed the average lifespan of a Russian male, 68. I agree that this war could last that long, especially if fronts settle (similar to what happened in the Donbass after early 2015). But I'd hope, for Ukraine's sake, some external event would cause it to end before 15-20 years. (An event such as regime change in Russia, NATO intervention, etc.)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Loved the show and have since watched everything that Shawn Ashmore and Brooke Nevin have been in. Didn't read the books though.

You might be the only person in the world of whom this is true, something which, to be clear, I respect immensely; I'm always in favor of unusual takes on children's sci-fi.

Good analysis in this Twitter thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickForVA/status/1498702036363210754

Between analysis like this showing how Russian victory isn't a done deal, analysis showing how Russian victory is a done deal, analysis showing how it might take a month for Kiev to fall, the halting & logistical problems of the Kiev convoy, Belarus troops seemingly entering Ukraine + the destruction of Kharkiv & the Russian economy, I have no clue what to make of the trajectory of the conflict.

I think it is pretty clear that absent a coup in Moscow (or a stunning reversal by Putin), Russia will win conventionally in the short term. With that said, if the Ukrainian people's morale remains high and the entire country remains mobilized for an insurgency, then they will win they long run because Russia will not be able to afford hold the entire country.

While that's certainly possible, after what we've seen I don't think it's guaranteed. I'm not so naive as to believe the logistics of Putin's invasion are a complete disaster, but it seems plausible that they're insufficient to support what he's trying to do. In which case, the Russian invasion is going to run out of steam at some point. How soon that might happen, I have no idea. But if they reach insufficient levels of supply to keep advancing soon, while Russian economically falls apart, that will not be a win for Russia in any real sense.

Depends on what "winning" is. If that's taking the whole country, I agree that is questionable. But Russia could take Kiev and Kharkov, take Mariupol and encircle the Ukrainian forces facing Donetsk, and then call a ceasefire and negotiate from there. It's not a certainty but I think Russia is still more likely than not to succeed at this limited goal. In this hypothetical Russia will have taken Ukraine's largest city and capital, second largest city, most of their Black Sea coast, and neutralized their fortifications in the east, which is still quite a bit that could be given back to Ukraine in exchange for the neutrality guarantees they are looking for.

If that's even the reason why Putin started that war.

It’s blatantly not, but ole compy is working from Russian propaganda as read through Chinese state filters.

The only neutrality guarantee Putin actually ought to have needed was the fact that Ukraine has active irredentist claims against a nuclear power--the one he rules--and current NATO accession protocols do not allow countries with active territorial disputes to join. The fact that that never even entered the formal diplomatic conversation is in turn all the evidence any of us ought to need that it was never about that.

[ultraviolet]

10-20 years is completely ridiculous. There’s no economy to support that, even before sanctions. No possible way

[Illiniwek]

Anyway, this seems like a reasonable analysis of the war to me

https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1498797741329338371

Russia will win the conventional phase in a month or two. But the struggle for Ukrainian independence will be generational. Yet to be seen if Russia can build an effective and legitimate occupation government.

15-20 years?! Putin will probably be dead by then, he's nearly reached the average lifespan of a Russian, 73, and already passed the average lifespan of a Russian male, 68. I agree that this war could last that long, especially if fronts settle (similar to what happened in the Donbass after early 2015). But I'd hope, for Ukraine's sake, some external event would cause it to end before 15-20 years. (An event such as regime change in Russia, NATO intervention, etc.)

15-20 years is a very bizarrely distant-yet-precise estimate. Like, why not just 5 years? Why not 13 years? Why not 30? We have no idea what else will happen in the world, especially if, like you point out, Putin could be forced out or die within the next year.

[Adam Griffin]

15-20 years?! Putin will probably be dead by then, he's nearly reached the average lifespan of a Russian, 73, and already passed the average lifespan of a Russian male, 68. I agree that this war could last that long, especially if fronts settle (similar to what happened in the Donbass after early 2015). But I'd hope, for Ukraine's sake, some external event would cause it to end before 15-20 years. (An event such as regime change in Russia, NATO intervention, etc.)

This would be like saying the average US President should die when they're 78, when for decades, practically all of them live well into their 80s or 90s. Wealth and privilege make it possible for some kick-ass healthcare solutions (even in a country like Russia). Gorbachev is still alive and kicking at 91. Even Borracho Yeltsin made it to 76.

FDR and LBJ were the last two Presidents not to make it to 80: one had polio and the other drank heavily & smoked like a chimney (and of course life expectancy was considerably lower 60-80 years ago). World leaders make it to insanely old age compared to average people unless they get assassinated or have a death-wish.

[Tintrlvr]

Anyway, this seems like a reasonable analysis of the war to me

https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1498797741329338371

Russia will win the conventional phase in a month or two. But the struggle for Ukrainian independence will be generational. Yet to be seen if Russia can build an effective and legitimate occupation government.

15-20 years?! Putin will probably be dead by then, he's nearly reached the average lifespan of a Russian, 73, and already passed the average lifespan of a Russian male, 68. I agree that this war could last that long, especially if fronts settle (similar to what happened in the Donbass after early 2015). But I'd hope, for Ukraine's sake, some external event would cause it to end before 15-20 years. (An event such as regime change in Russia, NATO intervention, etc.)

15-20 years is a very bizarrely distant-yet-precise estimate. Like, why not just 5 years? Why not 13 years? Why not 30? We have no idea what else will happen in the world, especially if, like you point out, Putin could be forced out or die within the next year.

Presumably it's coming from someone who decided that because Afghanistan was the last occupation to end somewhere, this occupation will be exactly like that one.

[Storr]

The separatists are incompetent losers who had to be saved from total defeat by regular Russian army intervention multiple times. They're currently acting as a pinning force in Donbas to fix Ukrainian forces in place to be hit on the flanks by the Russian thrust from the south and northeast.

Which means advances against them might feel good but are actually strategic mistakes; better to hold what you have.

If the 95th has successfully taken Horlivka, it would make sense that the offensive has the goal of taking pressure off of Mariupol, or possibly even trying to cut off DPR forces from the rear. I wonder how much of the separatist forces are committed to the effort to take Mariupol. If there isn't much DPR defense behind the line of control, the Ukrainians may legitimately have a chance at a decisive victory.

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498859568889221125?s=20&t=rFJGSRXsPYL...

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498860217010122754

[NOVA Green]

So meanwhile while all of y'all have been debating obscure subtexts:

China's impatience with Russia continues to grow according the Capitalist Class of Wall Street Journal....    (Hey WSJ actually does really good News Coverage and only their Editorial / Opinion page is really lacking. )

The second part of the article (not quoted) goes into how China can potentially assist a crumbling Russia, but also really why it's not totally in their interests to do so.

"China’s Outreach to Russian Economy Extends Only So Far

Beijing could support Moscow as it faces punishing Western sanctions, but there are limits to how much it can do

March 1, 2022 9:39 am ET

China leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin recently declared that the partnership between their two countries had “no limits,” but there are constraints on how much Beijing can aid Moscow as it faces Western economic sanctions.

China is Russia’s largest trading partner, making it a closely watched factor as the U.S. and its allies seek to hobble the Russian economy after Mr. Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine last week.

Beijing, which vehemently opposes Western sanctions against Moscow, has recently taken steps to purchase more Russian energy and agricultural products, but those moves will take years to fully bear fruit. Once they do, they will still fall far short of the amount that Russia stands to lose if Europe closes the door to Russian energy and agricultural products.

Beijing will also likely be wary of doing anything that could provoke further confrontation with the West and heap additional pressure on its economy at a time when Chinese leaders are trying to maintain stability ahead of a closely watched Communist Party congress this year, where Mr. Xi is expected to seek a precedent-breaking third term as leader.

....

At a February summit in Beijing, the Chinese and Russian leaders unveiled oil and gas deals valued at an estimated $117.5 billion. They also issued a joint statement challenging the U.S.-led global order and saying friendship between the two countries “has no limits. There are no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation.”

In a Friday call with Mr. Putin, the Chinese leader urged Russia to resolve the conflict through negotiations, signaling Beijing’s reluctance to endorse the war.

The energy deals included an agreement that China National Petroleum Corp. will buy 100 million tons of crude oil from Russia’s largest oil producer, Rosneft. Though the deal took effect immediately, the purchases stretch out over a decade, meaning Moscow wouldn’t see most of the revenue for years.

Another agreement for China to buy 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year from gas giant Gazprom PJSC requires a new pipeline that won’t come online until around 2026.

Russia already sends 16 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China through a pipeline called the Power of Siberia-1. The two countries agreed in 2014 to expand that pipeline, allowing up to 38 billion cubic meters per year by 2025.

Even with all of the planned pipelines running at full capacity, Russia’s gas exports to China would still fall short of the 55 billion cubic meters that were set to flow each year through the just-scrapped Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany.

....

"





"





https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-outreach-to-russian-economy-extends-only-so-far-11646145595?st=ye1fxjsdntuom2f&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Kherson has fallen

Kherson after heavy shelling
From CNN's Paul P. Murphy and Jake Tapper
(From Telegram)
(From Telegram)
The Russian military appears to have taken central Kherson, screenshots posted to social media and a video obtained by CNN show.

The screenshots from a webcam and the video have been geolocated, and their authenticity verified by CNN.

The video shows Russian military vehicles at a roundabout in northern Kherson on Tuesday. The screenshots from the webcam show Russian military vehicles parked on Svobody Square in central Kherson.

The Kherson Regional Administration building sits on Svobody Square.

Entering the city: On Tuesday, CNN reported that Russian military vehicles had been seen on the eastern side of the city after days of shelling and intense fighting.

The videos provide new evidence that the Russians are moving throughout Kherson, apparently unimpeded. It also shows that the Russian forces from Crimea have advanced and established a crossing across the Dnieper River.

Mayor's desperate plea: On Tuesday afternoon, Kherson Mayor Igor Kolykhaiev posted a stark message on Facebook, warning the city was under attack. "Residential buildings and urban facilities are burning," he wrote.

"We are NOT military! But I will hold the city and its functioning as long as I can," he wrote. “If the Russian soldiers and their leadership hear me. I ask: leave our city, stop shelling the civilians. You have already taken everything you wanted. Including human lives.”

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-01-22/index.html

[Storr]

Kherson has fallen

Kherson after heavy shelling
From CNN's Paul P. Murphy and Jake Tapper
(From Telegram)
(From Telegram)
The Russian military appears to have taken central Kherson, screenshots posted to social media and a video obtained by CNN show.

The screenshots from a webcam and the video have been geolocated, and their authenticity verified by CNN.

The video shows Russian military vehicles at a roundabout in northern Kherson on Tuesday. The screenshots from the webcam show Russian military vehicles parked on Svobody Square in central Kherson.

The Kherson Regional Administration building sits on Svobody Square.

Entering the city: On Tuesday, CNN reported that Russian military vehicles had been seen on the eastern side of the city after days of shelling and intense fighting.

The videos provide new evidence that the Russians are moving throughout Kherson, apparently unimpeded. It also shows that the Russian forces from Crimea have advanced and established a crossing across the Dnieper River.

Mayor's desperate plea: On Tuesday afternoon, Kherson Mayor Igor Kolykhaiev posted a stark message on Facebook, warning the city was under attack. "Residential buildings and urban facilities are burning," he wrote.

"We are NOT military! But I will hold the city and its functioning as long as I can," he wrote. “If the Russian soldiers and their leadership hear me. I ask: leave our city, stop shelling the civilians. You have already taken everything you wanted. Including human lives.”

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-01-22/index.html

The fact it took the Russians this long to capture a major city is a win for the Ukrainians. The Russians were relying on finishing the war quickly, and that was denied to them.

[AndyHogan14]

Kherson has fallen

Kherson after heavy shelling
From CNN's Paul P. Murphy and Jake Tapper
(From Telegram)
(From Telegram)
The Russian military appears to have taken central Kherson, screenshots posted to social media and a video obtained by CNN show.

The screenshots from a webcam and the video have been geolocated, and their authenticity verified by CNN.

The video shows Russian military vehicles at a roundabout in northern Kherson on Tuesday. The screenshots from the webcam show Russian military vehicles parked on Svobody Square in central Kherson.

The Kherson Regional Administration building sits on Svobody Square.

Entering the city: On Tuesday, CNN reported that Russian military vehicles had been seen on the eastern side of the city after days of shelling and intense fighting.

The videos provide new evidence that the Russians are moving throughout Kherson, apparently unimpeded. It also shows that the Russian forces from Crimea have advanced and established a crossing across the Dnieper River.

Mayor's desperate plea: On Tuesday afternoon, Kherson Mayor Igor Kolykhaiev posted a stark message on Facebook, warning the city was under attack. "Residential buildings and urban facilities are burning," he wrote.

"We are NOT military! But I will hold the city and its functioning as long as I can," he wrote. “If the Russian soldiers and their leadership hear me. I ask: leave our city, stop shelling the civilians. You have already taken everything you wanted. Including human lives.”

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-01-22/index.html

The fact it took the Russians this long to capture a major city is a win for the Ukrainians. The Russians were relying on finishing the war quickly, and that was denied to them.

Also, they **still** haven't taken Kharkiv, Sumy, or Mariupol. Quite frankly, I would have figured all of those cities would have fallen within the first 48 hours. Now, all of those cities are on the brink, but still, it just goes to show how this is not going—at all—how Russia wanted it to go.

[Storebought]

But that's the issue: A city falling in less than a week of the invasion is falling quickly. The Battle of Basra in 2003 took two days short of three weeks, and, even granted the caveat that Basra is a large city, that was with a modern US/UK army fighting a badly equipped and undermotivated Iraqi army.

[It’s so Joever]

But that's the issue: A city falling in less than a week of the invasion is falling quickly. The Battle of Basra in 2003 took two days short of three weeks to capture, and, even granted the caveat that Basra is a large city, that was with a modern US/UK army fighting a badly equipped and undermotivated Iraqi army.

Stupidest comparison I’ve seen.

[NOVA Green]

Kherson has fallen

Kherson after heavy shelling
From CNN's Paul P. Murphy and Jake Tapper
(From Telegram)
(From Telegram)
The Russian military appears to have taken central Kherson, screenshots posted to social media and a video obtained by CNN show.

The screenshots from a webcam and the video have been geolocated, and their authenticity verified by CNN.

The video shows Russian military vehicles at a roundabout in northern Kherson on Tuesday. The screenshots from the webcam show Russian military vehicles parked on Svobody Square in central Kherson.

The Kherson Regional Administration building sits on Svobody Square.

Entering the city: On Tuesday, CNN reported that Russian military vehicles had been seen on the eastern side of the city after days of shelling and intense fighting.

The videos provide new evidence that the Russians are moving throughout Kherson, apparently unimpeded. It also shows that the Russian forces from Crimea have advanced and established a crossing across the Dnieper River.

Mayor's desperate plea: On Tuesday afternoon, Kherson Mayor Igor Kolykhaiev posted a stark message on Facebook, warning the city was under attack. "Residential buildings and urban facilities are burning," he wrote.

"We are NOT military! But I will hold the city and its functioning as long as I can," he wrote. “If the Russian soldiers and their leadership hear me. I ask: leave our city, stop shelling the civilians. You have already taken everything you wanted. Including human lives.”

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-01-22/index.html

The fact it took the Russians this long to capture a major city is a win for the Ukrainians. The Russians were relying on finishing the war quickly, and that was denied to them.

Also, they **still** haven't taken Kharkiv, Sumy, or Mariupol. Quite frankly, I would have figured all of those cities would have fallen within the first 48 hours. Now, all of those cities are on the brink, but still, it just goes to show how this is not going—at all—how Russia wanted it to go.

This....

[OSR stands with Israel]

But that's the issue: A city falling in less than a week of the invasion is falling quickly. The Battle of Basra in 2003 took two days short of three weeks, and, even granted the caveat that Basra is a large city, that was with a modern US/UK army fighting a badly equipped and undermotivated Iraqi army.

Basra was led by the UK not the US . Just look at the article you sent .


Also the US captured Baghdad which is over 420 miles from Kuwait in less than 3 weeks

[Storebought]

But that's the issue: A city falling in less than a week of the invasion is falling quickly. The Battle of Basra in 2003 took two days short of three weeks, and, even granted the caveat that Basra is a large city, that was with a modern US/UK army fighting a badly equipped and undermotivated Iraqi army.

Basra was led by the UK not the US . Just look at the article you sent .


Also the US captured Baghdad which is over 420 miles from Kuwait in less than 3 weeks

It was a coalition force. But that only makes a worse comparison, since US/UK military is more effective than Russia's (combined presumably Belarus if they haven't yet intervened).

I won't fall into a time warp thinking that Russia 'lost' if it didn't conquer Ukraine in 48 hours while the coalition of the willing had a month or so to against a weaker opponent.

[Storr]

It's quite remarkable, really. I was worrying at work on the second day of fighting that Kyiv would fall at anytime (I don't have access to my phone while on the clock).

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1498876287213084673?s=20&t=JaPi2aEmHS2H...