Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

I wonder when this is over, I wonder what will be left of Russia.

They will be a Chinese vassal.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498815833681891332

Bu... but Comrade Putin has said in Soviet Russia you don't need large banks and financial institutions.

The Western sanctions against Russia are stronger then even Germany in WW2. The allies did not sanction the German central bank.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The biggest problem with the Western doves is that they truly have no red line. To them, anything to prevent something that would slightly raise the risk of a nuclear exchange is something which ought to be strived for at any cost. I am firmly convinced Putin could start sending Ukrainians to literal death camps (this is not excessive hyperbole for several posters have said there is no red line) and would not be stopped from doing it out of Western fear.

There are obviously risks inherent with escalation, but a lot of people seem to have the immediate assumption that any direct involvement=apocalypse. As if those on the Russian side want to do Moscow turned into oblivion and their children dead. Yes we have real stakes in the game, but so do they. That’s why they will fold when pressure gets too high, and the only reason they are doing this now is because they truly want to test the boundaries. The problem is, the West doesn’t have boundaries. In our post-Cold War society, we became accustomed to the idea of no inherent risk of nuclear exchange at all, and now seem attached to that idea at a horrifying cost.

Make no mistake, a world in which Russia invaded Ukraine is not one which will ever resemble a world in which they didn’t, even if we sing the songs of appeasement out of fear.

You’re an insane warmonger, and nobody should take anything you say seriously. The amount of death and destruction a conventional war between NATO and Russia would cause would be catastrophic. And yes, anything that slightly increases the risk of nuclear hellfire raining from the sky, killing all advanced life on Earth, should be avoided at all costs. The West has done plenty to support Ukraine and will hopefully do more in the future, but war with Russia is untenable. And stop with the hyperbole, get a hobby or something.

If Nazi Germany and US or UK both have nuclear weapons in 1939, how would you respond to the German invasion of Poland?

This would be an obvious exception, as would any actual genocide in Ukraine. But both of these are pointless hypotheticals, because one is in the past and the other is never going to happen.

There's a genocide going on in China right now. Is it an obvious exception?

[Boobs]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498815833681891332

Bu... but Comrade Putin has said in Soviet Russia you don't need large banks and financial institutions.

The Western sanctions against Russia are stronger then even Germany in WW2. The allies did not sanction the German central bank.

As a note, apparently the primary person who was pushing to sanction the central bank was Chrysta Freeland, Canadian foreign finance minister and Trudeau’s right hand woman.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498815833681891332

Bu... but Comrade Putin has said in Soviet Russia you don't need large banks and financial institutions.

The Western sanctions against Russia are stronger then even Germany in WW2. The allies did not sanction the German central bank.

They are weaker than the Cuban, Iranian and North Korean sanctions, both in the number of states on board with them and the extent of the sanctions enforced by the states that are on board with them. This was inevitable to some extent because Russia's economy is much bigger than those countries', but the relative lack of restrictions on energy - the backbone of the Russian economy - means they aren't going to dissuade Russia's leaders from their conquest.

[Splash]

Seems like we might be getting at least a partial de facto embargo of Russia given all the recent action coming from private enterprise.

Also, Russia decided to launch another airborne operation:

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498835335874334725

[All Along The Watchtower]

I wonder when this is over, I wonder what will be left of Russia.

If it comes to that there won't be any of us left to wonder about anything.

[Mehmentum]

Seems like we might be getting at least a partial de facto embargo of Russia given all the recent action coming from private enterprise.

Also, Russia decided to launch another airborne operation:

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498835335874334725

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498815833681891332

Bu... but Comrade Putin has said in Soviet Russia you don't need large banks and financial institutions.

The Western sanctions against Russia are stronger then even Germany in WW2. The allies did not sanction the German central bank.

As a note, apparently the primary person who was pushing to sanction the central bank was Chrysta Freeland, Canadian foreign minister and Trudeau’s right hand woman.

She is the Finance minister (but she has been the foreign minister at a point and seems to pretty much run the government by herself). She is also half-Ukrainian.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/djrothkopf/status/1498834457285087235?s=21

Never forget.

https://twitter.com/govtrack/status/1498758438775664641?s=21

WTF.

[Boobs]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498815833681891332

Bu... but Comrade Putin has said in Soviet Russia you don't need large banks and financial institutions.

The Western sanctions against Russia are stronger then even Germany in WW2. The allies did not sanction the German central bank.

As a note, apparently the primary person who was pushing to sanction the central bank was Chrysta Freeland, Canadian foreign minister and Trudeau’s right hand woman.

She is the Finance minister (but she has been the foreign minister at a point and seems to pretty much run the government by herself). She is also half-Ukrainian.

fixed, thanks

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498815833681891332

Bu... but Comrade Putin has said in Soviet Russia you don't need large banks and financial institutions.

The Western sanctions against Russia are stronger then even Germany in WW2. The allies did not sanction the German central bank.

They are weaker than the Cuban, Iranian and North Korean sanctions, both in the number of states on board with them and the extent of the sanctions enforced by the states that are on board with them. This was inevitable to some extent because Russia's economy is much bigger than those countries', but the relative lack of restrictions on energy - the backbone of the Russian economy - means they aren't going to dissuade Russia's leaders from their conquest.

We’ll look, you can’t expect the Germans to have some black outs in the name of a silly thing like…checks notes..peace in Europe.

[NOVA Green]

Boeing and Ford Suspend Operations in Russia per NYT

"Boeing and Ford suspend operations in Russia.

Two major U.S. manufacturers, Boeing and Ford Motor, suspended their business activities in Russia as the country escalated its war in Ukraine.

Boeing said on Tuesday that it had halted major operations in its Moscow office and temporarily closed another office in Kyiv, Ukraine. The company also said that it had ceased providing parts, maintenance and technical support services to Russian airlines. In recent days, countries around the world have imposed sanctions on Russian carriers, limiting their ability to use leased planes; fly over Western Europe; or buy spare parts.

Boeing employs several thousand people in Russia, Ukraine and a handful of former Soviet states, an operation that includes a major design center in Moscow. The company also runs a flight training campus and research and technology center in the city and has a joint venture in Russia with VSMPO-AVISMA, Boeing’s largest titanium supplier.

Boeing has also been trying to diversify its titanium supply in recent years and it said it had enough of the metal on hand to keep making commercial aircraft in the near term.

....







"


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/business/boeing-ford-russia.html

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Don't know if this has alredy been reported on here, but the 40-mile long Russian mega convoy (I guess Putin would call it a Freedom Convoy ) that was advancing on Kiev from the north has come to a halt apparently. They've run out of fuel.


https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1498690292568018952


https://twitter.com/TristanSnell/status/1498774395644428296

"What if Visser Three from Animorphs got really into the Keystone Kops, then became real and was put in charge of a real military?"

This was supposed to be the logistics convoy!

Thank you, sir, for reminding me that animorpha exist!

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Good analysis in this Twitter thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickForVA/status/1498702036363210754

Between analysis like this showing how Russian victory isn't a done deal, analysis showing how Russian victory is a done deal, analysis showing how it might take a month for Kiev to fall, the halting & logistical problems of the Kiev convoy, Belarus troops seemingly entering Ukraine + the destruction of Kharkiv & the Russian economy, I have no clue what to make of the trajectory of the conflict.

I think it is pretty clear that absent a coup in Moscow (or a stunning reversal by Putin), Russia will win conventionally in the short term. With that said, if the Ukrainian people's morale remains high and the entire country remains mobilized for an insurgency, then they will win they long run because Russia will not be able to afford hold the entire country.

While that's certainly possible, after what we've seen I don't think it's guaranteed. I'm not so naive as to believe the logistics of Putin's invasion are a complete disaster, but it seems plausible that they're insufficient to support what he's trying to do. In which case, the Russian invasion is going to run out of steam at some point. How soon that might happen, I have no idea. But if they reach insufficient levels of supply to keep advancing soon, while Russian economically falls apart, that will not be a win for Russia in any real sense.

[WMS]

Here are the minutes from the first day of the United Nations General Assembly Eleventh Special Session. Lots of interesting statements made!

[Storr]

Seems like we might be getting at least a partial de facto embargo of Russia given all the recent action coming from private enterprise.

Also, Russia decided to launch another airborne operation:

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498835335874334725

Let's see how this one goes for the VDV. It's notable we still haven't seen video or images of the Il-76s Ukraine claimed to have shot down. That's in comparison to the ill fated helicopter assault on Homostel (I'm probably spelling that wrong), which video evidence of has come out of.

[emailking]

Loved the show and have since watched everything that Shawn Ashmore and Brooke Nevin have been in. Didn't read the books though.

[compucomp]

Good analysis in this Twitter thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickForVA/status/1498702036363210754

Between analysis like this showing how Russian victory isn't a done deal, analysis showing how Russian victory is a done deal, analysis showing how it might take a month for Kiev to fall, the halting & logistical problems of the Kiev convoy, Belarus troops seemingly entering Ukraine + the destruction of Kharkiv & the Russian economy, I have no clue what to make of the trajectory of the conflict.

I think it is pretty clear that absent a coup in Moscow (or a stunning reversal by Putin), Russia will win conventionally in the short term. With that said, if the Ukrainian people's morale remains high and the entire country remains mobilized for an insurgency, then they will win they long run because Russia will not be able to afford hold the entire country.

While that's certainly possible, after what we've seen I don't think it's guaranteed. I'm not so naive as to believe the logistics of Putin's invasion are a complete disaster, but it seems plausible that they're insufficient to support what he's trying to do. In which case, the Russian invasion is going to run out of steam at some point. How soon that might happen, I have no idea. But if they reach insufficient levels of supply to keep advancing soon, while Russian economically falls apart, that will not be a win for Russia in any real sense.

Depends on what "winning" is. If that's taking the whole country, I agree that is questionable. But Russia could take Kiev and Kharkov, take Mariupol and encircle the Ukrainian forces facing Donetsk, and then call a ceasefire and negotiate from there. It's not a certainty but I think Russia is still more likely than not to succeed at this limited goal. In this hypothetical Russia will have taken Ukraine's largest city and capital, second largest city, most of their Black Sea coast, and neutralized their fortifications in the east, which is still quite a bit that could be given back to Ukraine in exchange for the neutrality guarantees they are looking for.

[MaxQue]

Good analysis in this Twitter thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickForVA/status/1498702036363210754

Between analysis like this showing how Russian victory isn't a done deal, analysis showing how Russian victory is a done deal, analysis showing how it might take a month for Kiev to fall, the halting & logistical problems of the Kiev convoy, Belarus troops seemingly entering Ukraine + the destruction of Kharkiv & the Russian economy, I have no clue what to make of the trajectory of the conflict.

I think it is pretty clear that absent a coup in Moscow (or a stunning reversal by Putin), Russia will win conventionally in the short term. With that said, if the Ukrainian people's morale remains high and the entire country remains mobilized for an insurgency, then they will win they long run because Russia will not be able to afford hold the entire country.

While that's certainly possible, after what we've seen I don't think it's guaranteed. I'm not so naive as to believe the logistics of Putin's invasion are a complete disaster, but it seems plausible that they're insufficient to support what he's trying to do. In which case, the Russian invasion is going to run out of steam at some point. How soon that might happen, I have no idea. But if they reach insufficient levels of supply to keep advancing soon, while Russian economically falls apart, that will not be a win for Russia in any real sense.

Depends on what "winning" is. If that's taking the whole country, I agree that is questionable. But Russia could take Kiev and Kharkov, take Mariupol and encircle the Ukrainian forces facing Donetsk, and then call a ceasefire and negotiate from there. It's not a certainty but I think Russia is still more likely than not to succeed at this limited goal. In this hypothetical Russia will have taken Ukraine's largest city and capital, second largest city, most of their Black Sea coast, and neutralized their fortifications in the east, which is still quite a bit that could be given back to Ukraine in exchange for the neutrality guarantees they are looking for.

If that's even the reason why Putin started that war.

[KaiserDave]

Putin is not looking for “neutrality guarantees” he’s looking for control and subjugation.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Good analysis in this Twitter thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickForVA/status/1498702036363210754

Between analysis like this showing how Russian victory isn't a done deal, analysis showing how Russian victory is a done deal, analysis showing how it might take a month for Kiev to fall, the halting & logistical problems of the Kiev convoy, Belarus troops seemingly entering Ukraine + the destruction of Kharkiv & the Russian economy, I have no clue what to make of the trajectory of the conflict.

I think it is pretty clear that absent a coup in Moscow (or a stunning reversal by Putin), Russia will win conventionally in the short term. With that said, if the Ukrainian people's morale remains high and the entire country remains mobilized for an insurgency, then they will win they long run because Russia will not be able to afford hold the entire country.

While that's certainly possible, after what we've seen I don't think it's guaranteed. I'm not so naive as to believe the logistics of Putin's invasion are a complete disaster, but it seems plausible that they're insufficient to support what he's trying to do. In which case, the Russian invasion is going to run out of steam at some point. How soon that might happen, I have no idea. But if they reach insufficient levels of supply to keep advancing soon, while Russian economically falls apart, that will not be a win for Russia in any real sense.

Depends on what "winning" is. If that's taking the whole country, I agree that is questionable. But Russia could take Kiev and Kharkov, take Mariupol and encircle the Ukrainian forces facing Donetsk, and then call a ceasefire and negotiate from there. It's not a certainty but I think Russia is still more likely than not to succeed at this limited goal. In this hypothetical Russia will have taken Ukraine's largest city and capital, second largest city, most of their Black Sea coast, and neutralized their fortifications in the east, which is still quite a bit that could be given back to Ukraine in exchange for the neutrality guarantees they are looking for.

If that's even the reason why Putin started that war.

It’s blatantly not, but ole compy is working from Russian propaganda as read through Chinese state filters.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

I wonder when this is over, I wonder what will be left of Russia.

They will be a Chinese tributary.

FTFY

^{I blame eu4}

[Storr]

This would be totally unexpected (so I'm taking this with a Javelin tube full of salt). But, if the DPR is losing cities of 240,000 residents, oof:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498842138389397509?s=20&t=EIHjPSKvX...

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498843379114942472?s=20&t=EIHjPSKvX...

[Statilius the Epicurean]

The separatists are incompetent losers who had to be saved from total defeat by regular Russian army intervention multiple times. They're currently acting as a pinning force in Donbas to fix Ukrainian forces in place to be hit on the flanks by the Russian thrust from the south and northeast.