Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[KaiserDave]

God willing they are routed, repelled, and humiliated.

[AndyHogan14]

You have to love the Irish!
https://twitter.com/CAugustenborg/status/1497226277882892296?s=20&t=aXAJCzu5...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Ukraine somehow is spared, it will be in spite of, and not because of Biden and NATO.

 Disagree. The material and intelligence support and support the US and nato has provided has been incalculable.  Is the sanctions less so, but still a factor.

We could have done more-looking at you Italy and Belgium refusing to wean yourself off of Russian produce luxury goods and diamonds for Pete's sake-but NATO and Biden  Did pretty much all they could hear with only some missteps.

Biden carved massive energy exceptions into his own sanctions, which he says he’ll review “in a month or so” (i.e. when he hopes there will be less political pressure to maintain them or impose more). His supply of military aid has also been incredibly lacking, especially when it comes to AA.

His response is less pathetic than some European leaders’, but still very weak.

[jojoju1998]

If Ukraine somehow is spared, it will be in spite of, and not because of Biden and NATO.

 Disagree. The material and intelligence support and support the US and nato has provided has been incalculable.  Is the sanctions less so, but still a factor.

We could have done more-looking at you Italy and Belgium refusing to wean yourself off of Russian produce luxury goods and diamonds for Pete's sake-but NATO and Biden  Did pretty much all they could hear with only some missteps.

Biden carved massive energy exceptions into his own sanctions, which he says he’ll review “in a month or so” (i.e. when he hopes there will be less political pressure to maintain them or impose more). His supply of military aid has also been incredibly lacking, especially when it comes to AA.

His response is less pathetic than some European leaders’, but still very weak.

Exxon helps ship Russian Oil. American investment companies invest in Ukraine, Russia,

Hell even the California Pensions Systems have investments in Russia. We're too tied up.

[emailking]

Is the tank thing legally a war crime?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363
Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

It might be possible a compromise is put in place where the entire Donbass is reintegrated with Ukraine in return for the country becoming neutral a la Austria in the Cold War? (If Putin has enough of a hand, then add in Crimea being Russian being recognized by the international community, but this would be much more unlikely)

Ukraine would probably fare best if it isn't political football, and all this, taken together, would shore up both Putin and Zelensky, allowing both to claim victory. It would also help NATO as they have to expend less money on redeployments.

See the thing is Russia doesn’t want a neutral Ukraine. They could have had that easily without all this.

Ukraine did not even implement the Minsk agreements, which they agreed to, and started making preparations for NATO membership?

On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, "which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO."

If it had implemented Minsk, renounced Crimea & embraced constitutional neutrality, we would not be here now.

Was that realistic? No, these are very significant concessions and Ukraine did not think Putin would go through with an all out invasion.

Now, it is obvious they are in a worse position, and such a compromise is better than having Grozny level destruction in a city of 3 Million, which might actually happen if they keep up resistance while refusing to negotiate.

Ultimately, it is the only way I see for them to prosper long term without looking over their shoulder, or in this case, border.

All the Western Powers are eager to argue for Ukraine in negotiations and demand better conditions, but when sh**t actually hit the fan, it doesnt seem anyone was actually there to back it up.

Not today Sergei.

Minsk Protocols were negotiated with a gun to Ukraine’s head, were attempted by the Ukraine, and never happened because they were predicated upon a ceasefire, which Russian proxies immediately broke, and the withdrawal of Russian weapons and fighters from Ukraine, neither of which happened. Minsk 1 was in June of 2014, by that October Russian proxies had launched an offensive operation to take all of Donetsk. Minsk II, same story, Russians agree to ceasefire in exchange for essentially all their demands (autonomy, immunity for Russian backed terrorists, etc.), immediately begin attacking Ukrainian army positions . And of course, these ceasefires are with an extremist insurgency that is created and sustained with Russian support. ‘Going back to Minsk’ means you stop shooting back while Russia’s unofficial army rolls over you.

Yes, Ukraine has attempted to move towards NATO membership, because Russia won’t stop military intervention in the Ukraine, trying to be a neutral point between Russia and the West got Yushchenko a Russian-backed successor and a civil war, trying just to integrate with Europe got Poroshenko an Crimean annexation and a Russian army by another name insurgency. Russia won’t leave Ukraine alone and Minsk and their complete disregard of every alleged ceasefire is a pretty stark example that Russia will not respect any neutrality agreement on Ukraine’s part. They have moved towards NATO membership because they need a redline beyond which Putin’s stormtroopers can not cross, because a neutral Ukraine is a Ukraine subject to continuous and arbitrary Russian military intervention.

[2016]

Shockingly according to a new Poll Voters think Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump was President
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497340903643566091

[emailking]

Shockingly according to a new Poll Voters think Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump was President

Even if they are right, that doesn't mean it's Biden's fault or that Trump should have won.

[compucomp]

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363
Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

It might be possible a compromise is put in place where the entire Donbass is reintegrated with Ukraine in return for the country becoming neutral a la Austria in the Cold War? (If Putin has enough of a hand, then add in Crimea being Russian being recognized by the international community, but this would be much more unlikely)

Ukraine would probably fare best if it isn't political football, and all this, taken together, would shore up both Putin and Zelensky, allowing both to claim victory. It would also help NATO as they have to expend less money on redeployments.

See the thing is Russia doesn’t want a neutral Ukraine. They could have had that easily without all this.

Ukraine did not even implement the Minsk agreements, which they agreed to, and started making preparations for NATO membership?

On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, "which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO."

If it had implemented Minsk, renounced Crimea & embraced constitutional neutrality, we would not be here now.

Was that realistic? No, these are very significant concessions and Ukraine did not think Putin would go through with an all out invasion.

Now, it is obvious they are in a worse position, and such a compromise is better than having Grozny level destruction in a city of 3 Million, which might actually happen if they keep up resistance while refusing to negotiate.

Ultimately, it is the only way I see for them to prosper long term without looking over their shoulder, or in this case, border.

All the Western Powers are eager to argue for Ukraine in negotiations and demand better conditions, but when sh**t actually hit the fan, it doesnt seem anyone was actually there to back it up.

Not today Sergei.

Minsk Protocols were negotiated with a gun to Ukraine’s head, were attempted by the Ukraine, and never happened because they were predicated upon a ceasefire, which Russian proxies immediately broke, and the withdrawal of Russian weapons and fighters from Ukraine, neither of which happened. Minsk 1 was in June of 2014, by that October Russian proxies had launched an offensive operation to take all of Donetsk. Minsk II, same story, Russians agree to ceasefire in exchange for essentially all their demands (autonomy, immunity for Russian backed terrorists, etc.), immediately begin attacking Ukrainian army positions . And of course, these ceasefires are with an extremist insurgency that is created and sustained with Russian support. ‘Going back to Minsk’ means you stop shooting back while Russia’s unofficial army rolls over you.

Yes, Ukraine has attempted to move towards NATO membership, because Russia won’t stop military intervention in the Ukraine, trying to be a neutral point between Russia and the West got Yushchenko a Russian-backed successor and a civil war, trying just to integrate with Europe got Poroshenko an Crimean annexation and a Russian army by another name insurgency. Russia won’t leave Ukraine alone and Minsk and their complete disregard of every alleged ceasefire is a pretty stark example that Russia will not respect any neutrality agreement on Ukraine’s part. They have moved towards NATO membership because they need a redline beyond which Putin’s stormtroopers can not cross, because a neutral Ukraine is a Ukraine subject to continuous and arbitrary Russian military intervention.

How about you go through my post history on this topic first, and then decide if I am a "Sergei", sound good?

Idk how you can still claim that them proclaiming "Nato ambitions" was not a mistake when Kyiv is under siege, 48 hours after the invasion started, especially when all they seem to be getting from those ambitions is prayers and some cash/equipment.

I am not claiming Minsk 2.0 was fair, or that them giving up Crimea would be fair, or that the separatist movements are justified or legal. I simply think it is a better alternative to having Kyiv leveled by a madman. But sure, "Sergei" it is.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

I think we're all perfectly aware that Ukraine is losing the war. We just don't have the RG Veda-esque obsession with shilling for the most powerful player in any and all situations that you seem to think is common sense.

[John Dule]

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

I generally agree with this sentiment-- believing wartime propaganda is dumb-- but I also don't think the war comes down to just Kiev, especially if Zelensky escapes capture/death. The Ukrainian government could establish temporary operations in Lviv and organize from there. Kiev just happens to be in a really poorly defended position compared to some of Ukraine's other cities.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363
Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

It might be possible a compromise is put in place where the entire Donbass is reintegrated with Ukraine in return for the country becoming neutral a la Austria in the Cold War? (If Putin has enough of a hand, then add in Crimea being Russian being recognized by the international community, but this would be much more unlikely)

Ukraine would probably fare best if it isn't political football, and all this, taken together, would shore up both Putin and Zelensky, allowing both to claim victory. It would also help NATO as they have to expend less money on redeployments.

See the thing is Russia doesn’t want a neutral Ukraine. They could have had that easily without all this.

Ukraine did not even implement the Minsk agreements, which they agreed to, and started making preparations for NATO membership?

On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, "which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO."

If it had implemented Minsk, renounced Crimea & embraced constitutional neutrality, we would not be here now.

Was that realistic? No, these are very significant concessions and Ukraine did not think Putin would go through with an all out invasion.

Now, it is obvious they are in a worse position, and such a compromise is better than having Grozny level destruction in a city of 3 Million, which might actually happen if they keep up resistance while refusing to negotiate.

Ultimately, it is the only way I see for them to prosper long term without looking over their shoulder, or in this case, border.

All the Western Powers are eager to argue for Ukraine in negotiations and demand better conditions, but when sh**t actually hit the fan, it doesnt seem anyone was actually there to back it up.

Not today Sergei.

Minsk Protocols were negotiated with a gun to Ukraine’s head, were attempted by the Ukraine, and never happened because they were predicated upon a ceasefire, which Russian proxies immediately broke, and the withdrawal of Russian weapons and fighters from Ukraine, neither of which happened. Minsk 1 was in June of 2014, by that October Russian proxies had launched an offensive operation to take all of Donetsk. Minsk II, same story, Russians agree to ceasefire in exchange for essentially all their demands (autonomy, immunity for Russian backed terrorists, etc.), immediately begin attacking Ukrainian army positions . And of course, these ceasefires are with an extremist insurgency that is created and sustained with Russian support. ‘Going back to Minsk’ means you stop shooting back while Russia’s unofficial army rolls over you.

Yes, Ukraine has attempted to move towards NATO membership, because Russia won’t stop military intervention in the Ukraine, trying to be a neutral point between Russia and the West got Yushchenko a Russian-backed successor and a civil war, trying just to integrate with Europe got Poroshenko an Crimean annexation and a Russian army by another name insurgency. Russia won’t leave Ukraine alone and Minsk and their complete disregard of every alleged ceasefire is a pretty stark example that Russia will not respect any neutrality agreement on Ukraine’s part. They have moved towards NATO membership because they need a redline beyond which Putin’s stormtroopers can not cross, because a neutral Ukraine is a Ukraine subject to continuous and arbitrary Russian military intervention.

How about you go through my post history on this topic first, and then decide if I am a "Sergei", sound good?

Idk how you can still claim that them proclaiming "Nato ambitions" was not a mistake when Kyiv is under siege, 48 hours after the invasion started, especially when all they seem to be getting from those ambitions is prayers and some cash/equipment.

I am not claiming Minsk 2.0 was fair, or that them giving up Crimea would be fair, or that the separatist movements are justified or legal. I simply think it is a better alternative to having Kyiv leveled by a madman. But sure, "Sergei" it is.

How about not sh**tting out Russian talking points about how the big bad Ukrainians just wouldn’t work with them then?

Russia made it’s decision to invade months if not years ago regardless of any Ukrainian action, any rapprochement has been met with Russian terrorists shooting at them. Not posture short of agreeing to Russian annexation would have prevented this outcome.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1497231580951162886?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle...

[Person Man]

Is the tank thing legally a war crime?

Yes.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1497231580951162886?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle...

I really hope that this is intended as propaganda for internal consumption, and that the situation is not that dire.

[Aurelius]

The sheer numbers of casualties so far, especially on the Russian side, have been astonishingly violent for this type of war. The waste of life on a tyrant's post-imperial brooding...

I'm skeptical of the casualty numbers. It's very early, fog of war is still thick, and Ukraine has incentive to inflate Russia's casualties. I'm rooting for Ukraine but that doesn't mean we have to uncritically believe everything their spokespeople put out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497344191474528258

[Oakvale]

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

No one posting in this thread is unaware of the numerical realities here.

The thread has a lot of posts about the victories of Ukrainian patriots against the oppressor, when they occur, because all decent people support Ukraine's defiance against evil. We applaud when we see Russian troops have been sent directly to hell because, even if they "win", it's heartening to think that they will pay in blood for every bit of land they steal.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1497231580951162886?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle...

I really hope that this is intended as propaganda for internal consumption, and that the situation is not that dire.

I kinda posted this hoping that it will be rebuked. But it's not like these concerns are unreasonable.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497344191474528258

They’re going in for the kill, they have no value of life. Not even their own.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

I generally agree with this sentiment-- believing wartime propaganda is dumb-- but I also don't think the war comes down to just Kiev, especially if Zelensky escapes capture/death. The Ukrainian government could establish temporary operations in Lviv and organize from there. Kiev just happens to be in a really poorly defended position compared to some of Ukraine's other cities.

Ukraine sort of had a government in  exile from 1920-1992.

[KaiserDave]

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

I want you to know you are a bad person. I don't know why you have a compulsion to root for evil and control and misery in all cases. Why do you hate freedom?

[lfromnj]

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

I want you to know you are a bad person.

I'm sure his views on this conflict are bad but he's also probably being realistic. I highly doubt Ukraine actually shot down that paratrooper plane . There does seem to be a lot of propaganda out there(not using it in a negative fashion)

[Storr]

Shockingly according to a new Poll Voters think Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump was President
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497340903643566091

I dislike Trump as much as any other Democrat, but I agree with the 62%. Putin generally avoided provoking the US during the Trump administration. Trump espoused things Putin wanted (leaving NATO, reducing US troop numbers in Europe, etc.) and openly mentioned his admiration of Putin. If Putin invaded Ukraine, he'd lose any hope of weakening NATO (not to mention actively give NATO countries reason to support the organization) and give up the best relationship with a US President he's ever had. Invasion under a Trump administration makes no sense for Putin.