Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[afleitch]

Ukrainian PR is also extremely impressive; politicians at the front line while Putin reacts from his palace etc and is widely shared on social media which penetrates Russia and is really accessible by Russian troops themselves.

[Sir Mohamed]

I read this a couple of times now: Ukraine claiming the invasion already cost over 1,000 Russian casualties.

Take this with a HUGE grain of salt. I find it hard to believe, tbh, BUT if remotely true, it would be total disaster for Putin, even if he finally ends up being successful in occupying Ukraine. Just remember the US lost around 4.5k in Iraq over several years, so losing 1k in less than 48 hours would be a disaster of epic magnitude. However, I won't believe it until confirmed by independent sources or intel services of NATO members.

https://twitter.com/DrAlakbarov/status/1497207616333877253

[jaichind]

In India, as expected, the slow evacuation of Indian citizens from Ukraine is becoming the main topic of discussion regarding the crisis and is really just turning into a blame game between BJP and the opposition on how many Indian citizens have been evacuated and how many Indian citizens previous PMs evacuated in other geopolitical crisis in the past.

[Aurelius]

A Ukrainian I follow on Twitter is claiming 2,800 Russian casualties. I am extremely skeptical and consider this number to be pulled out of thin air. Impressive PR operation all in all. CNN was mostly uncritically repeating the "800 dead Russians" claim last night.

----

https://mobile.twitter.com/nseskuria/status/1497173675774255118

[Cassius]

The Ukrainian leadership are, broadly speaking, a fair bit younger than their Russian counterparts and count a number of ‘performers’ (not least Zelensky and Klitschko) in their ranks, so between that and the fact they’ve operated in a semi-democratic environment for a number of years it’s not surprising that they’re better at PR than the Russians (also helps that many western outlets are happy to uncritically repeat anything they say).

[jaichind]

I read this a couple of times now: Ukraine claiming the invasion already cost over 1,000 Russian casualties.

Take this with a HUGE grain of salt. I find it hard to believe, tbh, BUT if remotely true, it would be total disaster for Putin, even if he finally ends up being successful in occupying Ukraine. Just remember the US lost around 4.5k in Iraq over several years, so losing 1k in less than 48 hours would be a disaster of epic magnitude. However, I won't believe it until confirmed by independent sources or intel services of NATO members.

https://twitter.com/DrAlakbarov/status/1497207616333877253

It is not totally absurd.  The attacking force will take more losses in the initial battles especially if the defense force is fighting from defensive positions.  The defensive side takes most of its losses when the defense breaks and they have to retreat in large numbers.  I can totally see Russians losing men in the hundreds at this phase of the battle.

[jaichind]

Russian media reports that, in a call with Putin, Lukashenko promised that he is totally ready to host a peace conference between Russia and Ukraine and promises total security for such a meeting.

[jojoju1998]

Apparently China is Ukraine’s largest investor. Second largest export partner. And largest import partner.


China doesn’t care what happens to Russia or Ukraine. Only their bottom line. Their Bottom line will be hurt if Putin continues his schemes.

And if China openly backs Russia, the Western world will cut off acccess For Chinese businessmen.

[Cassius]

Apparently China is Ukraine’s largest investor. Second largest export partner. And largest import partner.


China doesn’t care what happens to Russia or Ukraine. Only their bottom line. Their Bottom line will be hurt if Putin continues his schemes.

And if China openly backs Russia, the Western world will cut off acccess For Chinese businessmen.

Lol.

[Aurelius]

The Ukrainian leadership are, broadly speaking, a fair bit younger than their Russian counterparts and count a number of ‘performers’ (not least Zelensky and Klitschko) in their ranks, so between that and the fact they’ve operated in a semi-democratic environment for a number of years it’s not surprising that they’re better at PR than the Russians (also helps that many western outlets are happy to uncritically repeat anything they say).

Another example:

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497196067271680025

I guess Stalingrad never happened.

And the 2,800 number again:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480

[Aurelius]

Apparently China is Ukraine’s largest investor. Second largest export partner. And largest import partner.


China doesn’t care what happens to Russia or Ukraine. Only their bottom line. Their Bottom line will be hurt if Putin continues his schemes.

And if China openly backs Russia, the Western world will cut off acccess For Chinese businessmen.

Russia and China have become important partners. They committed to a "no limits partnership" not long ago. They have similar revanchist interests (Ukraine, Taiwan).

[Lord Halifax]

I guess Stalingrad never happened.

That was the Soviet Union, not Russia.

[Sir Mohamed]

If these numbers are real indeed, that might explain why Putin no longer seems to rule out peace talks after also receiving pressure from the PRC. That said, a ceasefire can and should only occur mutually.

Perhaps Zelensky can go as far as promising a neutral status of Ukraine for the time being. Putin won't rule Russia forever, he's already close to 70, so Ukraine could join NATO and EU in 10 or 15 years. Not the outcome I would prefer, but better than the loss of so many innocent Ukrainians and a war in Europe.

[MaxQue]

Apparently China is Ukraine’s largest investor. Second largest export partner. And largest import partner.


China doesn’t care what happens to Russia or Ukraine. Only their bottom line. Their Bottom line will be hurt if Putin continues his schemes.

And if China openly backs Russia, the Western world will cut off acccess For Chinese businessmen.

Russia and China have become important partners. They committed to a "no limits partnership" long ago. They have similar revanchist interests (Ukraine, Taiwan).

Is China committed, through? Russia needs China way more that China needs Russia and I don't think China would have any problem dumping Russia is they feel it is in their interest.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1497227854786043923

[jaichind]

If these numbers are real indeed, that might explain why Putin no longer seems to rule out peace talks after also receiving pressure from the PRC. That said, a ceasefire can and should only occur mutually.

Perhaps Zelensky can go as far as promising a neutral status of Ukraine for the time being. Putin won't rule Russia forever, he's already close to 70, so Ukraine could join NATO and EU in 10 or 15 years. Not the outcome I would prefer, but better than the loss of so many innocent Ukrainians and a war in Europe.

Ukraine being a core Russian issue is going to be true with or without Putin.  The only way for Russia to not act on that would be for Russia to be so weak (like in the 1990s) that it had to focus on internal problems.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

[Person Man]

If these numbers are real indeed, that might explain why Putin no longer seems to rule out peace talks after also receiving pressure from the PRC. That said, a ceasefire can and should only occur mutually.

Perhaps Zelensky can go as far as promising a neutral status of Ukraine for the time being. Putin won't rule Russia forever, he's already close to 70, so Ukraine could join NATO and EU in 10 or 15 years. Not the outcome I would prefer, but better than the loss of so many innocent Ukrainians and a war in Europe.

Sure. I think he should totally take guarantee neutrality until 2035-2037 and to freeze the border at the Minsk Agreement.

[rc18]

Apparently China is Ukraine’s largest investor. Second largest export partner. And largest import partner.


China doesn’t care what happens to Russia or Ukraine. Only their bottom line. Their Bottom line will be hurt if Putin continues his schemes.

And if China openly backs Russia, the Western world will cut off acccess For Chinese businessmen.

Russia and China have become important partners. They committed to a "no limits partnership" long ago. They have similar revanchist interests (Ukraine, Taiwan).

While true, it is interesting how tepid Chinese support has been so far.

They saw the same announcements from Putin as we have, they know he's a bit unhinged. China is never keen on loose cannons dictating its foreign policy.

[Person Man]

If these numbers are real indeed, that might explain why Putin no longer seems to rule out peace talks after also receiving pressure from the PRC. That said, a ceasefire can and should only occur mutually.

Perhaps Zelensky can go as far as promising a neutral status of Ukraine for the time being. Putin won't rule Russia forever, he's already close to 70, so Ukraine could join NATO and EU in 10 or 15 years. Not the outcome I would prefer, but better than the loss of so many innocent Ukrainians and a war in Europe.

Ukraine being a core Russian issue is going to be true with or without Putin.  The only way for Russia to not act on that would be for Russia to be so weak (like in the 1990s) that it had to focus on internal problems.

I could see it getting to the point where the Russian Federation becomes a vassal to the PRC. ..and for reasons stated above, that might actually be a step up. Winnie the Pooh is an asshole, but he's a sane asshole.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497225270310354949

What is Russia going to say?

"Oh, I accept your term of surrender"

[compucomp]

It's the clear reality and the truth at this point. Kiev is under siege, 1.5 days into the offensive, and Zelensky sued for peace publicly. Asking for an armistice with enemy troops on your land is not an action to take when winning, Finland still lost territory from the Winter War despite performing much better than expectations. I get that you're cheerleading for a side here but reality doesn't care about that.

Firstly, the capital being under direct threat in the second day of the invasion of a large country sounds impressive at first, very impressive, right up until you look at a map and notice where Kiev actually is. It is highly exposed to any aggressive push from the north and borderline indefensible from that direction as well.

Secondly, no one serious is saying that the Ukrainian army is winning. What has been noticed, and not just here and not just on twitter, is that they have held up a lot better than expected. People have also been surprised at the Russian attack plan with so many independent thrusts on so many different fronts, something that smacks of the sort of incompetence driven by excessive political interference in military decisions. It is still overwhelmingly likely that the Russian military 'wins' due to the substantial imbalance in the size of forces and also resources involved, but it is plainly not going to plan, and this is an important and relevant thing to note.

Finally, your sneering is unpleasant and reflects poorly on your character.

I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

[sting in the rafters]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497225270310354949

What is Russia going to say?

"Oh, I accept your term of surrender"

Its just posturing. Putin is still declaring a war agaisnt Nazis right? He can say hes offered peace and when Ukraine rejects becoming a vassal state he'll have, at least in his mind, a carte blanche to do whatever. Already cities in the east are being fully burned in the battle.


https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1497224482829660162

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497225270310354949

What is Russia going to say?

"Oh, I accept your term of surrender"

Its just posturing. Putin is still declaring a war agaisnt Nazis right? He can say hes offered peace and when Ukraine rejects becoming a vassal state he'll have, at least in his mind, a carte blanche to do whatever. Already cities in the east are being fully burned in the battle.


https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1497224482829660162

So, best case scenario is that he rides a horse into Kiev, declares himself Czar of Ukraine (metaphorically, of course) and still has to contend with tens of thousands of dead soldiers, tens of millions of new subjects that want to kill him, and land will take years to get to any sort of order....either that or his plan is to do to Ukraine what we did to the Indians. Get rid of many as he can and having his partners start building towns for Russians next to the ruins of the old cities.