Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672798370975342596?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743555624755200?s=20

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743562616684545?s=20

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743569520570371?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1672676852656226305?t=ojpi-hW0N5zSbi2WRXsWeQ...
It's interesting that the Russian elite choose to store their wealth in...good ol'fashioned greenbacks.

It would be very funny if Prigozhin really is Bobrov and never had even remote Jewish roots, he just took the last name from another ugly skinhead.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Looks like Putin might have been aware of something going down well prior to the start of the attempted uprising of Russian War Veterans.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672781952221433856?s=20

Naturally, Putin knew what he was ordering from his chef.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743555624755200?s=20
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743562616684545?s=20
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743569520570371?s=20

The previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over

Alas, this relationship is not over. Most likely, the Wagner Group will concentrate all its troops in Belarus and launch an offensive against Kyiv, while the Ukrainians are busy counter-offensive in the South-East. In this way, it will quasi atone for its guilt before Putin in the eyes of the Russian public.

We remains to hope for external obstacles, to which the Russian military is always very sensitive.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

What an absurd Russian soap opera yesterday.

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672798370975342596?s=20

Unsurprising, the XX century was the period when Russia (under USSR) established itself as a main character in the world stage.

They’re now still a major player obviously but have definitely deteriorated since then. Militarily and economically. So it’s not surprising that under war times and nationals see their country underperforming compared to their set expectations and standards (which were shaped by XX century standings) - that the instinctive reaction by average people is to bring back USSR - a time of pride and glory for them.

This won’t and shouldn’t happen though. It won’t happen because Putin is fully in line with the elites and they have fully embraced market capitalism even when they’re on a war against the biggest proponents of market capitalism in the world. The rhetoric may be “anti-western” but he’s inherently a softie and more liberal option necessarily because their concern is turned towards Europe and the West.

Like, it made sense when you were friends with the West but these people are now putting all kinds of sanctions over you and you’re now trying to diminish Western influence and turn to very different markets. China is your main safeplace now. And still, these elite people have their fronts turned to Europe and their backs to Asia.

What really should happen instead of any system revolution is for Russians to finally drop their European identity. They will always be “too eastern” for that and have to eventually start realizing that geopolitically, they will always be treated as Asian regardless of what their system or leader is.

At the same time, I don’t think USSR should make a return as that’s westerners wettest dream, so that they can successfully revive XX century narratives including the trashiest ones - like anti-communism to every random social-democratic policy, or false bipolarity notions as if the world division was between capitalism vs communism when it’s not.

USSR is more of a “brand” that represents more glorious times in the eyes of the everyday Russian anyway - they don’t necessarily really want communism back as much they want competence in general. And regardless of what the flag, the anthem  or name the country has, if the people and leaders are the same of today then nothing would change regardless.

Hopefully the coup attempt from yesterday wasn’t a seed for a rebellion against their government later on to re-establish this updated version of a new Soviet Union. Many people in here were actively rooting for Putin’s fall while deep down dreaming that something like this could be possible.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743555624755200?s=20
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743562616684545?s=20
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743569520570371?s=20

The previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over

Alas, this relationship is not over. Most likely, the Wagner Group will concentrate all its troops in Belarus and launch an offensive against Kyiv, while the Ukrainians are busy counter-offensive in the South-East. In this way, it will quasi atone for its guilt before Putin in the eyes of the Russian public.

We remains to hope for external obstacles, to which the Russian military is always very sensitive.

An offensive on Kyiv would be suicide, Ukraine well fortified the area since Russia returned and they have a solid army size defending it. On top of that Wagner wouldn’t have enough men as they not only have to take Kyiv but Sumy as well because if they didn’t the troops stationed there would just hit Wagner in the rear

[Hindsight was 2020]

So while there wasn’t a breakthrough last night Ukraine did take advantage and made some key strategic gains and just so certain people don’t complain about it being NAFO spam look who is confirming it:
https://twitter.com/suriyakmaps/status/1672936245087948803?s=12
https://twitter.com/suriyakmaps/status/1672936569345376257?s=12

[jaichind]

https://www.businessinsider.com/nato-hesitation-giving-ukraine-weapons-hindering-counteroffensive-analysts-say-2023-6

"NATO hesitated when Ukraine begged for weapons. Now their counteroffensive against Russia is hitting snags, analysts say."

Blame game continues

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1672961619029118978?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672905540710682625?s=20

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1672961619029118978?s=20

The whole idea that authoritarian states are better-suited for long attritional wars than democratic ones is already rebutted by the pretty obvious counter-example of World War I, where Britain and France, which were reasonably Democratic for the time, outlasted the German, Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, and Russian Empires, which weren't. It's interesting that International Relations Theorists put so much focus into studying the outbreak of World War I, but far fewer talk about its end, and even when they do, it's usually to analyze how the final peace settlements set the stage for World War II and the Middle East Conflicts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1672961619029118978?s=20

The whole idea that authoritarian states are better-suited for long attritional wars than democratic ones is already rebutted by the pretty obvious counter-example of World War I, where Britain and France, which were reasonably Democratic for the time, outlasted the German, Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, and Russian Empires, which weren't. It's interesting that International Relations Theorists put so much focus into studying the outbreak of World War I, but far fewer talk about its end, and even when they do, it's usually to analyze how the final peace settlements set the stage for World War II and the Middle East Conflicts.

Reality is that whatever phony, superficial line is drawn between "democratic" and "authoritarian" regimes, actual performance in the battlefield tends to be decided by other things. One could note that Russia underwent considerable change from 1914 to 1918 and the battlefield performance of the Kerensky government was rather awful.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672932328170045441?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1673003614090977284?s=20

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1673004678609502217?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1673003614090977284?s=20

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1673004678609502217?s=20

This guy's career is a bit interesting. He certainly seems quite well connected.

[jaichind]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-accuses-israel-of-pro-russian-stance-in-blistering-statement/

"In blistering critique, Ukraine accuses Israel of pro-Russian stance"



Another episode in "making friends and influencing people"

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672932328170045441?s=20

Why would you want to take out local police officers? I can understand soldiers, MPs, National Guard, etc.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672932328170045441?s=20

Why would you want to take out local police officers? I can understand soldiers, MPs, National Guard, etc.

I suppose they (especially teenagers with impulsive not fully matured brains) went after local collaborator police because they were seen as traitors to Ukraine. The teens might have even viewed the ‘traitor’ police as more of an enemy than occupying Russian forces.

[NOVA Green]

Hopefully Ukraine Intelligence is wrong on this...


https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1673025433380573189?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Some combat footage released by Ukraine of yesterday's battle in Donbass.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672939251598589953?s=20

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1672961619029118978?s=20

All it takes is looking at basic statistics to realize NATO's economy is bigger than Russia's. If Putin could rationally assess his interests though, he wouldn't have risked it all to begin with.

[Woody]

Will Wagner launch a campaign in the north?

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672960189920624640

[Horus]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-accuses-israel-of-pro-russian-stance-in-blistering-statement/

"In blistering critique, Ukraine accuses Israel of pro-Russian stance"



Another episode in "making friends and influencing people"

Biden really needs to cut the Israelis loose. They have been a thorn in Ukraine's side since the beginning and clearly want to realign with Russia anyways.