Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

The ruble is now at it's strongest since Oct last year. Good job Biden you idiot.

Is this criticism directed towards any specific political action Biden should or should not have taken or he is he just a form of boogeyman and scapegoat for you?

Biden announced to the whole world that the ruble was going to turn into "rubble"... It didn't.

Now he looks even more weak.

To be fair RUB trading is fairly thin and easily manipulated by the Russian Central Bank.  Still, in real terms, it is not possible to turn the RUB into "rubble" unless you destroy Russia's ability to sell raw materials and get paid in hard currency for it.  So far Russia has had no real issues in its ability to do that.  The rise in raw material prices clearly has shifted the terms of trade in a positive direction for Russia and has helped to mitigate the impact of sanctions.

[CumbrianLefty]

The ruble is now at it's strongest since Oct last year. Good job Biden you idiot.

Until if and when the ruble is a fully traded convertible currency, said "value" is pretty meaningless.

[jaichind]

The ruble is now at it's strongest since Oct last year. Good job Biden you idiot.

Until if and when the ruble is a fully traded convertible currency, said "value" is pretty meaningless.

That's going too far in the other direction.  Russian Central Bank for sure can manipulate the RUB price but to do so will cost it resources.   That Russia has the resources to maintain this does speak to underlying financial and economic resiliency despite clear economic hits it is taking. 

[GoTfan]

Herald Sun is officially reporting a UK minister saying a world war will start in days. Don't put much stock in it to be honest.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Herald Sun is officially reporting a UK minister saying a world war will start in days. Don't put much stock in it to be honest.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the report was true; UK ministers often make claims that aren’t credible.

[Middle-aged Europe]

More German polling data on Ukraine (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF Politbarometer, 04/29)


Opinion on delivering heavy weapons to Ukraine
Support 56% (+25 compared to March)
Oppose 39% (-24)

Does delivering heavy weapons increase the likelihood of a Russian attack on Western nations?
Yes 59%
No 36%

Will the war remain restricted to Ukraine or will Russia also attack other countries?
War will remain restricted to Ukraine 38%
Russia will attack other countries 54%

Opinion on the German support for Ukraine
Right amount 50% (+/-0)
Too little 32% (-5)
Too much 13% (+6)

Chancellor Olaf Scholz' job performance in the Ukraine crisis
Good 49% (-23 compared to March)
Bad 43% (+24)

Economy minister Robert Habeck's job performance in the Ukraine crisis
Good 66%
Bad 19%

Foreign minister Annalena Baerbock's job performance in the Ukraine crisis
Good 70%
Bad 24%

Should Ukraine be admitted to the EU in the coming years?
Yes 61%
No 32%

Can Germany handle the many refugees from Ukraine?
Yes 84%
No 14%


A noticable difference to yesterday's Infratest dimap poll is that opinions on delivering heavy weapons were much more split (45% to 45%) there.

I don't know really know the reasons for that except maybe that the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll asked separately whether you support delivering heavy weapons and whether you believe delivering increases the risk of a Russian attack on the West (there's apparently a sizable portion of people who support supplying the weapons while at the same time fearing a Russian attack as well).

Yesterday's Infratest dimap poll was conducted Monday through Wednesay, while this one here was carried out from Tuesday through Thursday. I guess it's possible that people in yesterday's poll were still greater influenced by Olaf Scholz' statement from last weekend that supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons could lead to nuclear war, while people in this poll could have been greater influenced by the Bundestag's supermajority vote in favour of sending them to Ukraine.

[Torie]

This cnn article is extremely well written and comprehensive. It's also quite depressing and yes, frightening. The war will be long and very bloody. The cold war is back with Putin threatening ever more stridently that nukes are there to be used. Tens and hundreds of billions  will be spent. Energy and oil prices will skyrocket. Close to a quarter of Ukraine's population will flee (5 million so far), meaning that close to half of the women, children and old people will have fled. Russia is destroying everything it can get its hands on. It's all bad.

I think the only way out is for Putin to be removed. That needs to be made clear. Russia itself will go back to being a third world country, and sooner rather than later its commodities will not be purchased. It will become the village of the damned, with which one would be at once foolish and morally challenged to do business.

Whomever kills or otherwise neutralize Putin gets his yachts, tax free.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/29/politics/ukraine-war-week-that-changed/index.html

[Person Man]

Herald Sun is officially reporting a UK minister saying a world war will start in days. Don't put much stock in it to be honest.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the report was true; UK ministers often make claims that aren’t credible.

Either way, this is not helping.

[rc18]

Herald Sun is officially reporting a UK minister saying a world war will start in days. Don't put much stock in it to be honest.

It's just an over-the-top tabloid headline. It's a bit more nuanced when you actually read the quote;

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-declare-new-world-26828251

He said: “I would not be surprised . . . that he is probably going to declare on May Day that ‘we are now at war with the world’s Nazis and we need to mass mobilise the Russian people’.”

He continued: “Putin, having failed in nearly all objectives, may seek to consolidate what he's got . . . and just be a sort of cancerous growth within the country. We have to help Ukrainians effectively get the limpet off the rock and keep the momentum pushing them back.”

So all he is saying is Putin may call a general mobilization for the Ukraine war on the excuse that they're actually fighting NATO nazis in Ukraine too. This is nothing that hasn't been said before.

[Person Man]

Herald Sun is officially reporting a UK minister saying a world war will start in days. Don't put much stock in it to be honest.

It's just an over-the-top tabloid headline. It's a bit more nuanced when you actually read the quote;

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-declare-new-world-26828251

He said: “I would not be surprised . . . that he is probably going to declare on May Day that ‘we are now at war with the world’s Nazis and we need to mass mobilise the Russian people’.”

He continued: “Putin, having failed in nearly all objectives, may seek to consolidate what he's got . . . and just be a sort of cancerous growth within the country. We have to help Ukrainians effectively get the limpet off the rock and keep the momentum pushing them back.”

So all he is saying is Putin may call a general mobilization for the Ukraine war on the excuse that they're actually fighting NATO nazis in Ukraine too. This is nothing that hasn't been said before.

What would a mobilization actually mean and change the calculus about whether we want to avoid a global war or maintain international credibility. So far, it appears that NATO and the US will be able to find balance.

[Torie]

Herald Sun is officially reporting a UK minister saying a world war will start in days. Don't put much stock in it to be honest.

It's just an over-the-top tabloid headline. It's a bit more nuanced when you actually read the quote;

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-declare-new-world-26828251

He said: “I would not be surprised . . . that he is probably going to declare on May Day that ‘we are now at war with the world’s Nazis and we need to mass mobilise the Russian people’.”

He continued: “Putin, having failed in nearly all objectives, may seek to consolidate what he's got . . . and just be a sort of cancerous growth within the country. We have to help Ukrainians effectively get the limpet off the rock and keep the momentum pushing them back.”

So all he is saying is Putin may call a general mobilization for the Ukraine war on the excuse that they're actually fighting NATO nazis in Ukraine too. This is nothing that hasn't been said before.

The key point is this mass mobilization bit. That seems like bluster. A bunch of untrained guys who don't want to be there, with a lack of stuff to equip them with. If you are a young man in Russia, get the F out - now.

Which brings me to the question as to when, aside from his nukes that Putin keeps under his bed, when will Russia run out of missiles, and what is their logistical capacity to replace them?

Are they built in one place or all over the fruited plain?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Russia avoids default one more time by paying debt in dollars and not rubles.


https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1520049398545330176

[Torie]

Why is Putin so eager to kill every man, woman and child in that steel plant? Why does he not let them exit, and take the soldiers as prisoners of war, or if they refuse, then kill them? Putin seems intent on being as demonic as possible.

[Virginiá]

The key point is this mass mobilization bit. That seems like bluster. A bunch of untrained guys who don't want to be there, with a lack of stuff to equip them with. If you are a young man in Russia, get the F out - now.

Which brings me to the question as to when, aside from his nukes that Putin keeps under his bed, when will Russia run out of missiles, and what is their logistical capacity to replace them?

Are they built in one place or all over the fruited plain?

Russia spent years trying to move their dependence on computer chips in-country, but they never got it fully done and were still importing chips from Europe and even the US. Most of what they need can be bought from China but it would require redesigns which obviously take time. Another issue is that like any large country, there is a certain share of their stock that needs to be reserved for other defense. Similar to how other countries in Europe wouldn't give up certain weapon systems without backfill from their allies. It's needed for strategic defense and would leave them vulnerable if they expended it all in the war. So there is a limit to how many PGMs Russia will use in Ukraine even if they technically have many more in their stockpiles.

Russia is going to have supply issues for the time being but eventually they will secure new supply chains and their weapons production will be mostly insulated from foreign sanctions. Who knows how long that will take. I'm sure it is of the highest priority now, though.

[Person Man]

The key point is this mass mobilization bit. That seems like bluster. A bunch of untrained guys who don't want to be there, with a lack of stuff to equip them with. If you are a young man in Russia, get the F out - now.

Which brings me to the question as to when, aside from his nukes that Putin keeps under his bed, when will Russia run out of missiles, and what is their logistical capacity to replace them?

Are they built in one place or all over the fruited plain?

Russia spent years trying to move their dependence on computer chips in-country, but they never got it fully done and were still importing chips from Europe and even the US. Most of what they need can be bought from China but it would require redesigns which obviously take time. Another issue is that like any large country, there is a certain share of their stock that needs to be reserved for other defense. Similar to how other countries in Europe wouldn't give up certain weapon systems without backfill from their allies. It's needed for strategic defense and would leave them vulnerable if they expended it all in the war. So there is a limit to how many PGMs Russia will use in Ukraine even if they technically have many more in their stockpiles.

Russia is going to have supply issues for the time being but eventually they will secure new supply chains and their weapons production will be mostly insulated from foreign sanctions. Who knows how long that will take. I'm sure it is of the highest priority now, though.

Again the big question is whether they can amass the resources and manpower to change the sustainability of the war in time for it to matter.

[2952-0-0]

Russia spent years trying to move their dependence on computer chips in-country, but they never got it fully done and were still importing chips from Europe and even the US. Most of what they need can be bought from China but it would require redesigns which obviously take time. Another issue is that like any large country, there is a certain share of their stock that needs to be reserved for other defense. Similar to how other countries in Europe wouldn't give up certain weapon systems without backfill from their allies. It's needed for strategic defense and would leave them vulnerable if they expended it all in the war. So there is a limit to how many PGMs Russia will use in Ukraine even if they technically have many more in their stockpiles.

Russia is going to have supply issues for the time being but eventually they will secure new supply chains and their weapons production will be mostly insulated from foreign sanctions. Who knows how long that will take. I'm sure it is of the highest priority now, though.

China recognized the supply chain vulnerability and made it a national priority to create replacements for imported technologies years ago. It's devoted hundreds of billions of $$ to that effect, but it's been unable to make substantial headway in that direction.

And if China, with 10X of Russia's population and economy, and a far greater manufacturing base, couldn't accomplish that after spending such time and money, and without being at war with the western powers, there's zero chance that Russia could do so ever, let alone in a timeframe that could affect the outcome of this war.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WSJ/status/1520062881718587392

[Virginiá]

China recognized the supply chain vulnerability and made it a national priority to create replacements for imported technologies years ago. It's devoted hundreds of billions of $$ to that effect, but it's been unable to make substantial headway in that direction.

And if China, with 10X of Russia's population and economy, and a far greater manufacturing base, couldn't accomplish that after spending such time and money, and without being at war with the western powers, there's zero chance that Russia could do so ever, let alone in a timeframe that could affect the outcome of this war.

Russia was starting to do this years ago as well. I remember reading about it in 2015.

Not saying they can get it done anytime soon, but they will certainly be trying. I expect them to lean very heavily towards China in doing so. But all of this is more of a future thing. Russia can't just create high-tech industry and redesign, re-implement and re-manufacture guidance systems for PGMs overnight. And with the significant brain drain that they experienced after the invasion, and even well before it, they might never have the domestic capacity for this. But it doesn't mean they can't work with other more sympathetic nations to build supply chains that are less susceptible to foreign interference.

Also worth mentioning is diversion of components from supply chains restricted by sanctions. We can choke their supply pretty effectively but with Russia ramping up smuggling efforts they are still going to get some of what they need anyway in the meantime.

[Virginiá]

Again the big question is whether they can amass the resources and manpower to change the sustainability of the war in time for it to matter.

The problem I see is that they are churning through their professional forces and best equipment very rapidly. After a certain point, if they decide to mobilize, they'll just be sending a bunch of poorly trained soldiers to the front who are likely to be much less effective than their already crappy professional soldiers and mercenaries.

In the meantime, Ukraine is being flooded with billions of dollars in small arms and heavy weapon systems with no signs of attrition of NATO's will to give. This boondoggle is like the worst possible outcome for Russia.

[2952-0-0]

Russia was starting to do this years ago as well. I remember reading about it in 2015.

Not saying they can get it done anytime soon, but they will certainly be trying. I expect them to lean very heavily towards China in doing so. But all of this is more of a future thing. Russia can't just create high-tech industry and redesign, re-implement and re-manufacture guidance systems for PGMs overnight. And with the significant brain drain that they experienced after the invasion, and even well before it, they might never have the domestic capacity for this. But it doesn't mean they can't work with other more sympathetic nations to build supply chains that are less susceptible to foreign interference.

But that will only increase Russia's dependence on foreign powers. Yes, Moscow-Beijing relations are strong now, but that's driven by the personal bromance between the two leaders. That will not survive the departure of either of them.

Also worth mentioning is diversion of components from supply chains restricted by sanctions. We can choke their supply pretty effectively but with Russia ramping up smuggling efforts they are still going to get some of what they need anyway in the meantime.

At the same time, the western powers are learning to step up enforcement of these sanctions. In the past few years, the US has learned to restrict the flow of high-tech components to China, and to convince its allies to play ball. And after February 24, the west used the same ready-made framework to enact sanctions against Russia.

Another factor: much of the supply chain has transformed from pure goods to also include services. Sure, they can smuggle in sophisticated machinery. But the machinery requires ongoing software support, without which the machine will be vulnerable to who-knows-what.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1520020783967444993?s=20&t=tL97X5veoI5...

If true, Putin has speedran the megalomaniac dictatorial descent into self-destruction.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1519861303061495810

The usual rogue's gallery of sh**tbags.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1520020783967444993?s=20&t=tL97X5veoI5...

If true, Putin has speedran the megalomaniac dictatorial descent into self-destruction.

I can only hope this has the same effect as Hitler having repeatedly screwed up the German war effort by trying to micromanage and overrule his generals.

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1520020783967444993?s=20&t=tL97X5veoI5lTtV8nCp5_g

If true, Putin has speedran the megalomaniac dictatorial descent into self-destruction.

Stalin was at least smart enough to leave operational control of the war to Zhukov and STAVKA. At this rate, Putin is doing a Nicholas II speedrun.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1520020783967444993?s=20&t=tL97X5veoI5...

If true, Putin has speedran the megalomaniac dictatorial descent into self-destruction.

I can only hope this has the same effect as Hitler having repeatedly screwed up the German war effort by trying to micromanage and overrule his generals.

I am worried about the risk of him doing something extreme and having no supervision.