Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1516161775594622979
25k seems kinda small for a offensive of this size no?

[HillGoose]

Fresh copium just dropped. Unable to explain why the mighty Russian army failed to take Azovstal despite relentless bombings, they have now made Osama's hideout in Tora Bora tier info graphics, including the biolabs lol.

lmao any idea what the words say? i'm curious as to what they think the Ukrainians have underneath some random shed in the middle of what looks to be a cow pasture?

[Person Man]

Fresh copium just dropped. Unable to explain why the mighty Russian army failed to take Azovstal despite relentless bombings, they have now made Osama's hideout in Tora Bora tier info graphics, including the biolabs lol.

lmao any idea what the words say? i'm curious as to what they think the Ukrainians have underneath some random shed in the middle of what looks to be a cow pasture?

Nazi stuff, biolabs, and antifa/BLM abortion clinics. What else?

[Storr]

Hopefully this is true: "The Russian offensive in the east is unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous Russian offensives, but Russian forces may be able to wear down Ukrainian defenders or achieve limited gains."

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1516200681400586244?s=20&t=Br5_cja...

[NOVA Green]

Hopefully this is true: "The Russian offensive in the east is unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous Russian offensives, but Russian forces may be able to wear down Ukrainian defenders or achieve limited gains."

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1516200681400586244?s=20&t=Br5_cja...

Also in the same article, which is something which Philip OBrien has previously covered on Twitter, has been:

Russian forces did not take the operational pause that was likely necessary to reconstitute and properly integrate damaged units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine into operations in eastern Ukraine. As we have assessed previously, Russian forces withdrawn from around Kyiv and going back to fight in Donbas have, at best, been patched up and filled out with soldiers from other damaged units, and the Russian military has few, if any, cohesive units not previously deployed to Ukraine to funnel into new operations.[1] Frequent reports of disastrously low Russian morale and continuing logistics challenges indicate the effective combat power of Russian units in eastern Ukraine is a fraction of their on-paper strength in numbers of battalion tactical groups (BTGs).

Also, take it with a pinch of salt from the sourcing:

Russian authorities face mounting unwillingness to fight among both conscript and contract personnel. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 18 that Russian forces began efforts to form additional units in Rostov and Crimea by April 24 to form a “second echelon” to occupy administrative buildings and important infrastructure in occupied Ukraine.[2] Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 18 that the number of Russian personnel refusing to join the war effort is increasing, including 60-70% of contract soldiers in the 150th Motor Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army—the primary Russian combat force in eastern Ukraine.[3] The GUR stated that Russian authorities are threatening the families of servicemen who refuse to fight and making permanent marks in the criminal records of those servicemen.

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-18

[NOVA Green]

Looks like stiffer US sanctions coming, which might hit larger swathes of the Russian economy than those thus far:

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday that there would be additional sanctions against Russia as punishment for Moscow’s continued invasion of Ukraine. Psaki did not specify what those sanctions would be but said the Biden administration was “continuing to review” its options and would probably have more information in the coming days.

Psaki also noted that the chairwoman of the Russian central bank had recently warned that the sanctions will “begin to increasingly affect the real sectors of the economy” in Russia and that “the period during which the [Russian] economy can live on reserves is finite.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/18/russia-ukraine-war-news-mariupol-live-updates/#link-5ME5SIA755CJDDZN3UYK7GXJOU

[NOVA Green]

Interesting article on why the Mariupol Iron & Steel Plant, has become the site of the "last stand" for Ukrainian forces within the city.

Bit more to the story, but have been curious as to how it has not only been able to hold on so long, as well as supporting a purported ~1,000 civilians simultaneously.

“Under the city, there is basically another city,” Yan Gagin, an adviser with the pro-Moscow separatist group Donetsk People’s Republic, told Russian state news network Ria Novosti over the weekend.

Gagin complained that the site was designed to withstand bombings and blockades — and that it has an inbuilt communication system that strongly favors the defenders, even if they are far outnumbered.

Azovstal has seen conflict before. Production at the site began in 1933, but less than a decade later Mariupol was overrun by German troops during World War II, and works were halted amid a dramatic exodus of civilians from the city.

But by 1944, just one year after the occupation ended, work was already underway to rebuild the plant, which soon became a productive and profitable part of the Soviet steel industry.

Seventy years later, steelworkers from Azovstal organized to forcefully retake Mariupol from pro-Russian separatists in 2014. The resistance — in a city where a majority spoke Russian and had often voted for politicians friendly to Moscow — surprised many observers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/18/azovstal-mariupol-steel-iron/

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I increasingly believe we will see at least a limited nuclear exchange of some kind at some point during this war.

If it looks like he's in danger of losing the war, or losing power outright, Putin will lash out.

Putin is evil and a sociopath, but he is not insane. He is only pretending to act unstable to scare NATO and the West. Putin knows that using nuclear weapons would lead to Russia wiped off the face of the map.

[NOVA Green]

WSJ Posted a good decent length read today about the situation, as well as some differences in how the Russian occupiers have been acting in various parts of Southern Ukraine.

Tons more to the article, and definitely worth the price of admissions, since it does some really interesting compare/contrast with a level of detail, which has only previously come through in fragments.

Russia is tightening its hold over occupied areas of southern Ukraine, installing pro-Moscow leaders, hunting for dissenters and dismantling Ukrainian state institutions.

In the city of Melitopol, like many others in the area, red, blue and white Russian flags now fly atop public buildings. Russian security forces patrol the streets and soldiers man checkpoints, inspecting people’s identification documents and looking through the contents of their mobile phones, residents say.

Russian occupation authorities have said they would seek to make the Russian ruble legal tender and say they will reopen schools teaching a Russian curriculum. Mr. Fedorov said Melitopol is now connected to Russia’s internet via a fiber-optic cable from Crimea. There also are new Russian cellphone-service towers.

In some places, Russian forces have also hoisted the flag of the Soviet Union on government buildings and moved to replace statues of Lenin dismantled after 2014.

Sergey Aksenov, the Russian governor of Crimea, said over the weekend that Ukrainian teachers from across the occupied areas of southern Ukraine will be taken to “requalification camps” in the peninsula so that they would follow “Russian standards” in the classroom.

In Melitopol, the mayor, Mr. Fedorov, said Russian forces were stripping factories of their machinery and shipping it back to Russia.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-ukraines-south-russian-occupiers-tighten-the-screws-11650301398?mod=hp_lead_pos8

[DaleCooper]

I increasingly believe we will see at least a limited nuclear exchange of some kind at some point during this war.

If it looks like he's in danger of losing the war, or losing power outright, Putin will lash out.

Putin is evil and a sociopath, but he is not insane. He is only pretending to act unstable to scare NATO and the West. Putin knows that using nuclear weapons would lead to Russia wiped off the face of the map.

I have no idea if he's insane, but he is incredibly stupid. Stupidity is arguably more dangerous than insanity. You can't assume Putin is not stupid enough to believe that nuking a city won't lead to war with the West.

[Virginiá]

[...]

In Melitopol, the mayor, Mr. Fedorov, said Russian forces were stripping factories of their machinery and shipping it back to Russia.

Dismantling factories and shipping it back to the Soviet Union Russia? What is this, WW2?

[NOVA Green]

[...]

In Melitopol, the mayor, Mr. Fedorov, said Russian forces were stripping factories of their machinery and shipping it back to Russia.

Dismantling factories and shipping it back to the Soviet Union Russia? What is this, WW2?

That was exactly what I was thinking, part of the reason I included that snip ...   

Also from way back when in my Poly-Sci University days in East Berlin in the early-mid '90s shortly after Nach Dem Wende, heard similar stories from old time East Germans, many of whom supported the PDS.

'Twas basically Russian reparations for WW II and although I don't recall off-hand exactly how long after VE-DAY, but seem to go on for some time...

Rail tracks are very efficient means to relocate manufacturing infrastructure quickly.

This is just the abstract, but would imagine anyone with college covered library privileges might be able to pull fully depending upon current academic status.

After the capitulation of Nazi Germany in World War II, the Soviets removed thousands of factories from Germany to the Soviet Union. The Soviets not only had to displace the factories, but also had to assimilate them in the Soviet context. This article shows how the Soviet authorities struggled with the assimilation of the German equipment in the peripheral town of Rybnitsa, in the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic. The Soviets sought to get the best German technologies and to relocate them to the Soviet Union. They acted as the winners in the war, and demanded a replacement for Soviet losses. But could the German factories serve as a replacement for the Soviet factories? How did the Soviets recreate German equipment in the Soviet sugar factories? Was it enough to encounter and relocate the foreign technology in order to assimilate it?

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31422969/

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I increasingly believe we will see at least a limited nuclear exchange of some kind at some point during this war.

If it looks like he's in danger of losing the war, or losing power outright, Putin will lash out.

Putin is evil and a sociopath, but he is not insane. He is only pretending to act unstable to scare NATO and the West. Putin knows that using nuclear weapons would lead to Russia wiped off the face of the map.

I have no idea if he's insane, but he is incredibly stupid. Stupidity is arguably more dangerous than insanity. You can't assume Putin is not stupid enough to believe that nuking a city won't lead to war with the West.

Even if Putin is that stupid, those below him aren't. Furthermore nuking a city in Ukraine would hurt Russia significantly as well, plenty of winds from that location blow into Russia and population centers. It would be like the US nuking Mexico, which would render the southwest uninhabitable.

[DaleCooper]

I increasingly believe we will see at least a limited nuclear exchange of some kind at some point during this war.

If it looks like he's in danger of losing the war, or losing power outright, Putin will lash out.

Putin is evil and a sociopath, but he is not insane. He is only pretending to act unstable to scare NATO and the West. Putin knows that using nuclear weapons would lead to Russia wiped off the face of the map.

I have no idea if he's insane, but he is incredibly stupid. Stupidity is arguably more dangerous than insanity. You can't assume Putin is not stupid enough to believe that nuking a city won't lead to war with the West.

Even if Putin is that stupid, those below him aren't. Furthermore nuking a city in Ukraine would hurt Russia significantly as well, plenty of winds from that location blow into Russia and population centers. It would be like the US nuking Mexico, which would render the southwest uninhabitable.

I'm not saying that it's likely to happen or that there's any significant chance it will happen. I'm saying that Putin and his lieutenants cannot be trusted to be intelligent enough to comprehend those consequences. I don't see how anyone can watch what we've seen over the last month and come away with the conclusion that Russian leadership is intelligent in any way.   

[NOVA Green]

So here's a perspective...

Also imagine that ties into other reports regarding much heavier Russian losses in terms of casualties and hardware than "verifiable numbers".

Also, we still have to consider that the (11) "New" BTGs are likely only operating at 80-85% true capacity.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1516168499424546818?s=20&t=o2ZLHp...

[NOVA Green]

Lest anybody forget how OSINT is helping to uncover War Crimes in Ukraine, my buddy Benjamin and various colleagues are hot on the trail...

Your crimes are being tracked and documented so please cease and desist immediately.


https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1516062550399537156?s=20&t=o2ZLHps5zKTPV...

[NOVA Green]

So I know that traditionally the news cycles works in (72) Hour max increments in the USA these dayz unless in terms of how traditional MSM news orgs cover stories, unless there are new updates.

Still, here we are on .04.18.22 from the first reports on 04.14.22 and yet the story of the Moskva fades.

Here is a new update from the same website which covered the curious case of The Vasiliy Bykov

Some families of sailors assigned to Moskva say they have now received notifications from Russia's Ministry of Defense that their loved ones either perished or survived, but many more say they have received no such confirmations. It has now been more than three days since the cruiser sank in the Black Sea, which happened after it was struck by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles, according to officials in Ukraine and the United States.

Multiple outlets reported today that Yulia Tsyvova, a resident of Crimea, had told them that the Russian Ministry of Defense had informed her of the death of her son, Andrei Tsyvova, said to have been a member of Moskva's crew. Tsyvova said that she received no additional information about what exactly happened to Andrei, who was initially said to have been missing after the ship sank, including any potential funeral arrangements.

Yesterday, the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta, which stopped operating in the country in March amid pressure from state censors, reported that a mother of a different sailor had told the outlet that at least around 40 members of Moskva's crew had died. She said that information had come from her son, who survived and who also told her that three Neptune missiles had struck the ship, rather than two as has been widely reported.

The matter of conscripted sailors being on the ship may further complicate matters. Since the very beginning of the conflict, Russian authorities have sought to obscure the participation of conscripts, including reportedly by forcing individuals to sign formal service contracts. Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously pledged that no conscripts would be deployed to Ukraine, despite clear evidence that they have been taking part in the fighting there since the start.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-families-of-moskva-sailors-left-in-the-dark

[Mopsus]

Looks like stiffer US sanctions coming, which might hit larger swathes of the Russian economy than those thus far:

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday that there would be additional sanctions against Russia as punishment for Moscow’s continued invasion of Ukraine. Psaki did not specify what those sanctions would be but said the Biden administration was “continuing to review” its options and would probably have more information in the coming days.

Psaki also noted that the chairwoman of the Russian central bank had recently warned that the sanctions will “begin to increasingly affect the real sectors of the economy” in Russia and that “the period during which the [Russian] economy can live on reserves is finite.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/18/russia-ukraine-war-news-mariupol-live-updates/#link-5ME5SIA755CJDDZN3UYK7GXJOU

Why haven’t we already implemented every sanction imaginable? What on earth are Western governments holding out for? Come on, people.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In his latest address Zelenskyy noted that Russia's missile strikes are slowing and attributed this to that Russia is likely running low on missiles, and thanks to sanctions can't easily build more. Initially Russia was using them heavily because the sanctions had loopholes so they figured it was no big deal, but those have mostly been closed now...so yeah, Russia is the one who's going to have the supply issues while Ukraine will continue to be resupplied with little issue.

[BlueSwan]

Looks like stiffer US sanctions coming, which might hit larger swathes of the Russian economy than those thus far:

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday that there would be additional sanctions against Russia as punishment for Moscow’s continued invasion of Ukraine. Psaki did not specify what those sanctions would be but said the Biden administration was “continuing to review” its options and would probably have more information in the coming days.

Psaki also noted that the chairwoman of the Russian central bank had recently warned that the sanctions will “begin to increasingly affect the real sectors of the economy” in Russia and that “the period during which the [Russian] economy can live on reserves is finite.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/18/russia-ukraine-war-news-mariupol-live-updates/#link-5ME5SIA755CJDDZN3UYK7GXJOU

Why haven’t we already implemented every sanction imaginable? What on earth are Western governments holding out for? Come on, people.

It is to still have the opportunity to impose even more sanctions, gradually pressuring the Russians more and more.

[Woody]

Russians closing in on Zarichne and Tors'ke means that the Ukrainian pocket near the Borova area is getting thinner

Source: https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/18-april-russian-troops-already-in-zarichne
https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1516208007666978828

[Omega21]

In his latest address Zelenskyy noted that Russia's missile strikes are slowing and attributed this to that Russia is likely running low on missiles, and thanks to sanctions can't easily build more. Initially Russia was using them heavily because the sanctions had loopholes so they figured it was no big deal, but those have mostly been closed now...so yeah, Russia is the one who's going to have the supply issues while Ukraine will continue to be resupplied with little issue.

The issue is, Russia withdrew the Tochka in 2020 and sent them into storage, meaning they have a butt load of unused medium range ballistic missiles.

They are probably running a bit low on their Iskanders and Kalibrs though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Still early days, but are the Russians trying to do a military offensive "on the cheap" again?

[Silent Hunter]

In his latest address Zelenskyy noted that Russia's missile strikes are slowing and attributed this to that Russia is likely running low on missiles, and thanks to sanctions can't easily build more. Initially Russia was using them heavily because the sanctions had loopholes so they figured it was no big deal, but those have mostly been closed now...so yeah, Russia is the one who's going to have the supply issues while Ukraine will continue to be resupplied with little issue.

The issue is, Russia withdrew the Tochka in 2020 and sent them into storage, meaning they have a butt load of unused medium range ballistic missiles.

They are probably running a bit low on their Iskanders and Kalibrs though.

Propellant might be an issue. They're solid fuelled, but I'm not sure how easy it would be to get them operational. Also the Tochka has a range of less than 150 miles.

[Omega21]

The last stand of Mariupol seems to be ending:

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1516293813324730369

Russian forces have already started pulling units out and sending them into the Donbas offensive. (One APC flying a Soviet Flag lol)

In total, the fall of Mariupol would free up around 12 BTGs (per Western Intelligence), which should be around 5000-10,000 men.

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1516357328924123139