How many of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump will be around in 2023

[The Mikado]

Already not running for reelection:

Kinzinger (R-IL)
Gonzalez (R-OH)

The remaining 8:

Cheney (R-WY)
Rice (R-SC)
Newhouse (R-WA)
Herrera-Beutler (R-WA)
Upton (R-MI)
Meijer (R-MI)
Katko (R-NY)
Valadao (R-CA)

IMO Cheney and Rice are 100% gone. Katko and Valadao could theoretically lose to Dems (more likely for Katko in a brutal redistricting than Valadao), but I could see Valadao surviving due to CA's top two system. Upton could retire, but if he doesn't retire I think he holds on. Meijer is in a lot of danger and I think he probably goes down. Herrera-Beutler and Newhouse might well be saved by the top two system.

My overall best guess is that 4 out of the 10 survive overall.

[Roll Roons]

I think Valadao, Newhouse and JHB are saved by the top-two system. Katko is a question mark because of redistricting, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt because of how strong he's proven himself to be. I think Meijer and Upton both survive because West Michigan just isn't very Trumpy.

But Cheney and Rice both lose primaries.

[Xing]

I'm guessing 4. Hard to see Herrera Beutler or Newhouse losing, and I don't think Valadao goes down in 2022 (2024 might be a different story, though.) Then, I imagine either Upton or Katko hold on, while Meijer is an underdog. Cheney and Rice are absolutely done, though.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm going to say 4. Although I think it could be as low as 2.

Cheney will get destroyed. I would expect the ones in swing and blue-leaning districts are the ones most likely to survive. The ones in red districts have less of a "reason" to impeach so they'll likely be targeted harder. So that's Rice + Cheney + two WA congresspeople. Herrera-Beutler has an interesting opponent who is pretty good on foreign policy (if you're opposed to the MIC, like I am), would be a very iconic person if he were to get in there (like a Gaetz or something like that) and she holds a red-leaning district. The other WA congressman has a very red district. The two Michiganders hold light-red seats, of the two Upton is more vulnerable than Meijer.

[Xing]

I'm going to say 4. Although I think it could be as low as 2.

Cheney will get destroyed. I would expect the ones in swing and blue-leaning districts are the ones most likely to survive. The ones in red districts have less of a "reason" to impeach so they'll likely be targeted harder. So that's Rice + Cheney + two WA congresspeople. Herrera-Beutler has an interesting opponent who is pretty good on foreign policy (if you're opposed to the MIC, like I am), would be a very iconic person if he were to get in there (like a Gaetz or something like that) and she holds a red-leaning district. The other WA congressman has a very red district. The two Michiganders hold light-red seats, of the two Upton is more vulnerable than Meijer.

The top two system makes it unlikely either WA Republican will lose, though, since I don't think either would get 3rd place, and in the event of two Republicans making the top two (probably only plausible in WA-04), Democrats in the district would obviously vote overwhelmingly for the Republican that voted to impeach Trump.

[😥]

Herrera Beutler and Newhouse should be fine. Valadao and Katko probably also will be reelected, depends on redistricting obviously, but those two are very strong candidates and 2022 is a Biden midterm after all. Future of Meijer and Upton depends on which map Michigan will adopt, but as for now I predict one of the two stays, while other retires or loses renomination/reelection. Cheney and Rice are goners

[Coldstream]

Katko, Valadao, Newhouse, JHB should be fine. On balance I still think Meijer will be fine, I think his name will be enough in his district as long as redistricting doesn’t cripple him. Whilst on balance I’d say Upton loses a primary, but he could survive. I could still see Cheney surviving due to her high profile and a split opposition vote, but it’s looking less and less likely by the day. Rice is the only one I’d be confident saying will definitely lose atm.

[Schiff for Senate]

I think Valadao, Newhouse and JHB are saved by the top-two system. Katko is a question mark because of redistricting, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt because of how strong he's proven himself to be. I think Meijer and Upton both survive because West Michigan just isn't very Trumpy.

But Cheney and Rice both lose primaries.

I think they still might lose because the GOP primary voters are still Trumpish. Specifically, Upton should make it since he's been in office for over 30 years (then again, look at Collin Peterson, Eliot Engel and Jim Oberstar, to name a few), though as a first-termer Meijer may be vulnerable, although he seems like a strong candidate, and redistricting might make his district's primary voters less Trumpish (though that's unlikely). I have to point out some very interesting facts regarding MI Republicans and impeachment, however, even if they aren't entirely relevant to this (well, the second fact kind of is), since you brought the subject up: Interestingly, Upton's the only member of congress to ever vote to impeach two presidents (Clinton in the '90s and Trump in 2021), which is kind of relevant since it underscores how long he's been in office and how much experience he's got under his belt, and in both 2018 and 2020, MI03 elected two different Republicans who would vote to impeach Trump, a Republican, in 2019 and 2021 respectively (although Amash was a Libertarian when he cast the vote for impeachment), which kind of does underscore your point that MI03 is a 'maverick' district (which trended leftward due to Grand Rapids). Returning to Meijer, though, redistricting could really alter things - I saw a map proposed by MI's indpendent commission that places Grand Rapids in a left-leaning district, which spells trouble for Meijer since I'm guessing Grand Rapids Republicans are probably less Trumpish overall than those in the area around it, so either Meijer runs in the cyan Grand Rapids district as loses reelection or runs in another district and risks losing renomination. This might not matter since I doubt this map will ultimately pass, but my point holds that Meijer needs to be wary of what redistricting does to his district, and even otherwise be concerned about the primary in 2022, while Upton doesn't really need to as much.

[thebeloitmoderate]

Since Newhouse is 66 I could predict he would lose to a more pro Trump Hispanic challenger fitting since his district is in the Yakima Valley of Washington and most of these cities/towns have a sizable hispanic population. Meijer/Upton is more bipartisan the former is more than his libertarian but anti Trump predecessor, Upton is respected across the aisle even if he did not vote to impeach trump back in 2019. Cheney is gone anyways. The remaining are all good

[GregTheGreat657]

Katko and Rice survive, but everyone else is gone

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I actually think the top-two system will mean the WA impeachment Republicans will be locked out of the vote, with the Trumpist challenger and a democrat getting the top two spots. Pacific Northwest Republicans are quite Trumpy, most PNW Bush Republicans are democrats now.

[SevenEleven]

Zero. Death threats and primary challenges will take course for the modern GOP. Except Valadao, he will lose to a well funded challenger most likely. JHB is the most likely to remain but still doubtful.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm going to say 4. Although I think it could be as low as 2.

Cheney will get destroyed. I would expect the ones in swing and blue-leaning districts are the ones most likely to survive. The ones in red districts have less of a "reason" to impeach so they'll likely be targeted harder. So that's Rice + Cheney + two WA congresspeople. Herrera-Beutler has an interesting opponent who is pretty good on foreign policy (if you're opposed to the MIC, like I am), would be a very iconic person if he were to get in there (like a Gaetz or something like that) and she holds a red-leaning district. The other WA congressman has a very red district. The two Michiganders hold light-red seats, of the two Upton is more vulnerable than Meijer.

The top two system makes it unlikely either WA Republican will lose, though, since I don't think either would get 3rd place, and in the event of two Republicans making the top two (probably only plausible in WA-04), Democrats in the district would obviously vote overwhelmingly for the Republican that voted to impeach Trump.

Good point, though I'd still think it's possible that Herrera Beutler could get third place because the district is blue enough a Dem could get ahead of her with split R vote.

[lfromnj]

I'm going to say 4. Although I think it could be as low as 2.

Cheney will get destroyed. I would expect the ones in swing and blue-leaning districts are the ones most likely to survive. The ones in red districts have less of a "reason" to impeach so they'll likely be targeted harder. So that's Rice + Cheney + two WA congresspeople. Herrera-Beutler has an interesting opponent who is pretty good on foreign policy (if you're opposed to the MIC, like I am), would be a very iconic person if he were to get in there (like a Gaetz or something like that) and she holds a red-leaning district. The other WA congressman has a very red district. The two Michiganders hold light-red seats, of the two Upton is more vulnerable than Meijer.

The commision is also debating to gerrymander both Upton and Meijer out .

[Xing]

I actually think the top-two system will mean the WA impeachment Republicans will be locked out of the vote, with the Trumpist challenger and a democrat getting the top two spots. Pacific Northwest Republicans are quite Trumpy, most PNW Bush Republicans are democrats now.

That’s an oversimplification, and Herrera Beutler is still quite liked by many in her district. I don’t see any way either of them get locked out, unless the Democratic challenger in WA-03 is very popular and locks up the Democratic vote. That wouldn’t work in WA-04, especially since some Democrats might vote for Newhouse in the first round because they know he’s the only one who would beat a Trump-friendly challenger.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I actually think the top-two system will mean the WA impeachment Republicans will be locked out of the vote, with the Trumpist challenger and a democrat getting the top two spots. Pacific Northwest Republicans are quite Trumpy, most PNW Bush Republicans are democrats now.

That’s an oversimplification, and Herrera Beutler is still quite liked by many in her district. I don’t see any way either of them get locked out, unless the Democratic challenger in WA-03 is very popular and locks up the Democratic vote. That wouldn’t work in WA-04, especially since some Democrats might vote for Newhouse in the first round because they know he’s the only one who would beat a Trump-friendly challenger.

IDK, Kent looks (on paper at least) like the PERFECT Trumpist candidate. He has the aura of a populist moderate while not actually being moderate.

[Greedo punched first]

Zero. Death threats and primary challenges will take course for the modern GOP. Except Valadao, he will lose to a well funded challenger most likely. JHB is the most likely to remain but still doubtful.

If Valadao doesn’t win, does a Democrat or another Republican win the seat?

[Schiff for Senate]

Zero. Death threats and primary challenges will take course for the modern GOP. Except Valadao, he will lose to a well funded challenger most likely. JHB is the most likely to remain but still doubtful.

If Valadao doesn’t win, does a Democrat or another Republican win the seat?

Democrat, most likely, unless redistricting alters the district to make it a lot redder. Valadao has crossover appeal because he has a somewhat moderate image. I'm guessing the next GOP nominee will be a loud Trumpist who will have zero crossover appeal.

[Schiff for Senate]

I actually think the top-two system will mean the WA impeachment Republicans will be locked out of the vote, with the Trumpist challenger and a democrat getting the top two spots. Pacific Northwest Republicans are quite Trumpy, most PNW Bush Republicans are democrats now.

Newhouse outran Trump considerably in 2020, and Herrera-Beutler is fairly popular too. East Washington isn't as Trumpish as you think.

[Greedo punched first]

Zero. Death threats and primary challenges will take course for the modern GOP. Except Valadao, he will lose to a well funded challenger most likely. JHB is the most likely to remain but still doubtful.

If Valadao doesn’t win, does a Democrat or another Republican win the seat?

Democrat, most likely, unless redistricting alters the district to make it a lot redder. Valadao has crossover appeal because he has a somewhat moderate image. I'm guessing the next GOP nominee will be a loud Trumpist who will have zero crossover appeal.

I guess it might be Rudy Salas who wins.

[Calthrina950]

Newhouse, Herrera-Beutler, Valadao, and Katko are the ones that I think will be reelected next year. Probably also Meijer, and possibly Upton. Kinzinger and Gonzalez are retiring, while Cheney and Rice will surely lose.

[Schiff for Senate]

Newhouse, Herrera-Beutler, Valadao, and Katko are the ones that I think will be reelected next year. Probably also Meijer, and possibly Upton. Kinzinger and Gonzalez are retiring, while Cheney and Rice will surely lose.

Upton should be fine, or at least safer than Meijer from the neighbouring 3rd. Meijer's a first termer and while the distict has trended leftward that hardly means the district's GOP voters are any less Trumpish than the national GOP electorate. On the other hand Upton's been in office for around 35 years and seems quite popular in his district. I feel like his district isn't that mad at him for voting for impeachment. I'd say Upton should be careful but I can easily see him making it in the end. He could just retire, though, to be on the safe side. Either way I don't think Meijer can win if Upton loses. I don't know about Rice; I feel like he might be saving himself by calling for Biden to resign. It'll be an uphill fight for sure but his making it is hardly impossible. Cheney is done, though, now that Trump's made an endorsement. Agree with Katko, Newhouse and Herrera-Beutler, though if his district is altered significantly Valadao may need to worry about the primary and the general, since his district is Biden+10 as currently drawn and he basically only made it because he used to represent the area and has a moderate image and crossover appeal in the region. I don't think we should jump to predictions on Valadao until my state draws some maps. Somewhat similarly, Katko might actually be in trouble if Democrats decide to pull the trigger on him in redistricting; if his district changes configuration, Katko might be less well-known in the new territory and lose renomination, in which case it's a pickup for the Democrats.

[lfromnj]

Newhouse, Herrera-Beutler, Valadao, and Katko are the ones that I think will be reelected next year. Probably also Meijer, and possibly Upton. Kinzinger and Gonzalez are retiring, while Cheney and Rice will surely lose.

Upton should be fine, or at least safer than Meijer from the neighbouring 3rd. Meijer's a first termer and while the distict has trended leftward that hardly means the district's GOP voters are any less Trumpish than the national GOP electorate. On the other hand Upton's been in office for around 35 years and seems quite popular in his district. I feel like his district isn't that mad at him for voting for impeachment. I'd say Upton should be careful but I can easily see him making it in the end. He could just retire, though, to be on the safe side. Either way I don't think Meijer can win if Upton loses. I don't know about Rice; I feel like he might be saving himself by calling for Biden to resign. It'll be an uphill fight for sure but his making it is hardly impossible. Cheney is done, though, now that Trump's made an endorsement. Agree with Katko, Newhouse and Herrera-Beutler, though if his district is altered significantly Valadao may need to worry about the primary and the general, since his district is Biden+10 as currently drawn and he basically only made it because he used to represent the area and has a moderate image and crossover appeal in the region. I don't think we should jump to predictions on Valadao until my state draws some maps. Somewhat similarly, Katko might actually be in trouble if Democrats decide to pull the trigger on him in redistricting; if his district changes configuration, Katko might be less well-known in the new territory and lose renomination, in which case it's a pickup for the Democrats.

One of the main Michigan proposals literally bunks Upton with Huizenga who gets all of Ottowa(Upton is 100% cooked here) along with dumping Meijer in a Safe D district.

[beesley]

I voted 4 - not that I have a specific actual 4 in mind, but because I think that's where things average out to.

[The Mikado]

MEGAbump now that Upton is out:

Gonna categorize them into four categories:

Already gone:

Katko
Gonzalez
Kinzinger
Upton

Likely goners:

Cheney
Rice

Possible survivors:

Valadao (difficult general)
Meijer (difficult primary AND general)

Likely survivors:

Herrera-Beutler
Newhouse

So that'd be somewhere between 2-4 expected survivors.

I voted for 4 back in October. I still think that's reasonable, but 2 or 3 are definitely in the running.