OK-Gov 2022: Dream the Impossible Dream?

[Coldstream]

Seems like the chair of the Oklahoma GOP is a proper lunatic, and he wants to take out Stitt/Lankford and replace them with people more in-line with him.

[SpartanburgSam]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1503479857484902402

[OdonTrail]

One state house district primary to watch is District 57 where Anthony Moore is getting a challenge from Kristen Kelley Poisson due to his opposition to school choice. https://twitter.com/officialOKGOP/status/1516964691108667393https://twitter.com/officialOKGOP/status/1516949881755258880

[Roll Roons]

https://www.soonerpoll.com/post/democrat-jena-nelson-leads-ryan-walters-in-statewide-school-superintendent-race

Sooner Poll has Democrat Jena Nelson leading Republican Ryan Walters by 5 points for the Superintendent race.

I don’t believe this, but it would be truly hilarious if Oklahoma elects a statewide Democrat and Florida doesn’t.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.soonerpoll.com/post/democrat-jena-nelson-leads-ryan-walters-in-statewide-school-superintendent-race

Sooner Poll has Democrat Jena Nelson leading Republican Ryan Walters by 5 points for the Superintendent race.

I don’t believe this, but it would be truly hilarious if Oklahoma elects a statewide Democrat and Florida doesn’t.

It certainly would be. If I'm correct, a Democrat hasn't won a statewide election in Oklahoma since Brad Henry was reelected as Governor in 2006. I don't see that drought ending anytime soon.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

There's been some buzz that there are two polls coming out showing the democrat leading as well as some speak on twitter that rural areas are increasingly becoming alienated with Stitt's voucher plan.

It could be a sleeper flip as Gubernatorial races have remained somewhat more resistant to polarization than other such races and the democrats has been attracting quite a bit of republican support in terms of endorsements.
https://twitter.com/TheLostOgle/status/1578400633920561152?t=TqVQ6ntCaqVe25qGVHG...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These are one of those upsets like SD

[Adam Griffin]

Also, Nathan Gonzalez (Inside Elections) has preemptively bumped OK-GOV from Solid R to Likely R.

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1578479415822278658

[Ferguson97]

https://www.soonerpoll.com/post/democrat-jena-nelson-leads-ryan-walters-in-statewide-school-superintendent-race

Sooner Poll has Democrat Jena Nelson leading Republican Ryan Walters by 5 points for the Superintendent race.

I don’t believe this, but it would be truly hilarious if Oklahoma elects a statewide Democrat and Florida doesn’t.

I don't think it's that ridiculous, lower-profile offices like this frequently go against the partisan lean of the state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.soonerpoll.com/post/democrat-jena-nelson-leads-ryan-walters-in-statewide-school-superintendent-race

Sooner Poll has Democrat Jena Nelson leading Republican Ryan Walters by 5 points for the Superintendent race.

I don’t believe this, but it would be truly hilarious if Oklahoma elects a statewide Democrat and Florida doesn’t.

I don't think it's that ridiculous, lower-profile offices like this frequently go against the partisan lean of the state.

Practically I think it's pretty much impossible for Democrats to win a state like Oklahoma under really any circumstances. Rural Oklahoma is like super dense and basically impossible to outvote, not to mention OKC and Tulsa tend to be quite conservative cities.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://www.soonerpoll.com/post/democrat-jena-nelson-leads-ryan-walters-in-statewide-school-superintendent-race

Sooner Poll has Democrat Jena Nelson leading Republican Ryan Walters by 5 points for the Superintendent race.

I don’t believe this, but it would be truly hilarious if Oklahoma elects a statewide Democrat and Florida doesn’t.

I don't think it's that ridiculous, lower-profile offices like this frequently go against the partisan lean of the state.

Practically I think it's pretty much impossible for Democrats to win a state like Oklahoma under really any circumstances. Rural Oklahoma is like super dense and basically impossible to outvote, not to mention OKC and Tulsa tend to be quite conservative cities.

Well the situation here seems like there's a lot of infigthing between rural republicans and exurban republicans with them pushing a policy hostile to the rural areas.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

There's been some buzz that there are two polls coming out showing the democrat leading as well as some speak on twitter that rural areas are increasingly becoming alienated with Stitt's voucher plan.

It could be a sleeper flip as Gubernatorial races have remained somewhat more resistant to polarization than other such races and the democrats has been attracting quite a bit of republican support in terms of endorsements.
https://twitter.com/TheLostOgle/status/1578400633920561152?t=TqVQ6ntCaqVe25qGVHG...

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1578583160115564549?t=lAE5bS2D2UrsaLub8...

lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.soonerpoll.com/post/democrat-jena-nelson-leads-ryan-walters-in-statewide-school-superintendent-race

Sooner Poll has Democrat Jena Nelson leading Republican Ryan Walters by 5 points for the Superintendent race.

I don’t believe this, but it would be truly hilarious if Oklahoma elects a statewide Democrat and Florida doesn’t.

I don't think it's that ridiculous, lower-profile offices like this frequently go against the partisan lean of the state.

Practically I think it's pretty much impossible for Democrats to win a state like Oklahoma under really any circumstances. Rural Oklahoma is like super dense and basically impossible to outvote, not to mention OKC and Tulsa tend to be quite conservative cities.

It's  not impossible it's called voting

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Democrats do actually enjoy an edge on education, at least in red states. Many voters trust the GOP government to stop 'CRT' but want to stop them from defunding public schools. For instance, Indiana had a Democratic suuperintendent quite recently.

[Calthrina950]

Democrats do actually enjoy an edge on education, at least in red states. Many voters trust the GOP government to stop 'CRT' but want to stop them from defunding public schools. For instance, Indiana had a Democratic suuperintendent quite recently.

Sherri Ybarra, Idaho's incumbent Republican Superintendent, only won reelection by 3% in 2018 against Cindy Wilson. That's a very good example of this. Education has traditionally been a Democratic issue, although that advantage has been lessened in recent years because of the fights over CRT, teachers unions, and the coronavirus pandemic.

[new_patomic]

He's going to lose

https://twitter.com/GovStitt/status/1578403641010036737?s=20&t=5hBnQMnTsxREl...

[Real Texan Politics]

He's going to lose

https://twitter.com/GovStitt/status/1578403641010036737?s=20&t=5hBnQMnTsxREl...

That’s actually kinda funny tbh

Anyways, Hook ‘em Horns

[Alben Barkley]

He's going to lose

https://twitter.com/GovStitt/status/1578403641010036737?s=20&t=5hBnQMnTsxREl...

Safe R --> Safe D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If an R is up only 5/6 pts that is red zone because blks make up 5/6 percent in SD it's a white state but Females are gonna throw Noem and Thune out, Stitt is not safe

[ProgressiveModerate]

Democrats do actually enjoy an edge on education, at least in red states. Many voters trust the GOP government to stop 'CRT' but want to stop them from defunding public schools. For instance, Indiana had a Democratic suuperintendent quite recently.

Education is one of those issues where people tend to blame state politics rather than national politics because frankly education sucks in red and blue states alike and education tends to be seen as a more state/local issue. In NY for instance, I am still very upset with how the Democrats in charge handled school closures and protocols that imo were way too aggressive. Furthermore the proactive effort by many liberals to get rid of the so called "elite" public schools is also messed up. But if Republicans were hypothetically in charge, I'm sure there are things I'd be upset at them about.

In OK, the chance the governorship actually flips is pretty close to 0 but Stitt will not win by Trump's 33% margin. At the very least I expect Hofmeister to win Oklahoma County (though it swings less left than the state due to low minority turnout). There's also an outside chance she wins something like Cleveland County where white liberals are a powerful bloc.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats do actually enjoy an edge on education, at least in red states. Many voters trust the GOP government to stop 'CRT' but want to stop them from defunding public schools. For instance, Indiana had a Democratic suuperintendent quite recently.

Education is one of those issues where people tend to blame state politics rather than national politics because frankly education sucks in red and blue states alike and education tends to be seen as a more state/local issue. In NY for instance, I am still very upset with how the Democrats in charge handled school closures and protocols that imo were way too aggressive. Furthermore the proactive effort by many liberals to get rid of the so called "elite" public schools is also messed up. But if Republicans were hypothetically in charge, I'm sure there are things I'd be upset at them about.

In OK, the chance the governorship actually flips is pretty close to 0 but Stitt will not win by Trump's 33% margin. At the very least I expect Hofmeister to win Oklahoma County (though it swings less left than the state due to low minority turnout). There's also an outside chance she wins something like Cleveland County where white liberals are a powerful bloc.

You do realize we won AK in a Trump state you do realize this or have you forgotten like many Forum users have, it's not 0 I would say less than 50 but not 0

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1579491387216912385

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Imagine if both Oklahoma and New York flip this year.

[Orwell]

Imagine if both Oklahoma and New York flip this year.

Oklahoma is more likely to flip than New York

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1579491387216912385

Even more remarkable considering Stitt is a member of one such nation.

I'm not going to get excited, as this is starting feel like the brief October 2020 SC-SEN mania that turned out to be a nothingburger, but there has been a series of really interesting polls coming out of the Plains for a while now. I'm not sure what to make of it.