Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Zema walks a line that puts him somewhere between Bolsonaro and the anti-Bolsonaro right that lets him win the support of both without turbocharging the motivation of his opposition like Bolsonaro. If not for all the air on the right being sucked up he'd probably have a good chance in 2026.

Also, the absolute worst case scenario (and let me know how plausible this sounds) goes something like

* Unexpected good economic news (or September Surprise of your choice) gives Bolsonaro a late boost, preventing 1st round Lula win

* Additional month of campaigning continues with Bolsonaro support gradually increasing

* Momentum combined with a small polling miss narrow the margin considerably but Lula barely wins by a close margin

* Bolsonaro accuses Lula/vote counters/courts of fraud, top generals side with Bolsonaro

[Red Velvet]

No, that pretty much sounds about right.

The election going to a runoff is the Bolsonaro team goal because they get an extra month to try to reverse their situation. So far each new poll shows numbers stabilized or with the Lula-Bolsonaro gap diminishing way too slowly even with all the big spending Bolsonaro has done this year in order to better his approval.

We are seeing the margin reduce but it’s way too slow. Even if Lula dropped telão points this poll, Bolsonaro didn’t grow out of it, who benefited was Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet. So if until runoff day he keeps accumulating good news, maybe he can drop the margin to be close to a tie with Lula. But it’s hard to see him winning when we see a crystalized rejection of his government.

It’s not impossible for Bolsonaro to win, let’s be clear. There is a path, but it’s looking really hard and extremely unlikely. So if the lower the margin, the more easily he probably thinks he can contest the results.

[buritobr]

Many people don't vote for the president and governor of the same party.
In the north of the state of Minas Gerais, many people voted for Fernando Haddad for president and Zema for governor.
Probably, these people will vote for Lula and Zema, the "Lulema" vote. Both are leading with a large margin in Minas Gerais.

[buritobr]

Ipec conducted recent polls about the presidential election in all the 26 states and the Federal District. Some results I have already shown here

The map is the following one

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ipec conducted recent polls about the presidential election in all the 26 states and the Federal District. Some results I have already shown here

The map is the following one

Surprising to see Rio Grande do Sul going for Lula.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

I think the bicentennial of Brazil's independence will help him in the polls, as it did for Gerald Ford in 1976

[buritobr]

Other polls show a blue Rio Grande do Sul. Ipec is the most favorable to PT poll. But I think it's the most reliable one. Other polls are conducted by phone and exclude some very poor voters, who vote for Lula. Ipec interviews people at their homes.

[Red Velvet]

Ipec conducted recent polls about the presidential election in all the 26 states and the Federal District. Some results I have already shown here

The map is the following one

Surprising to see Rio Grande do Sul going for Lula.

Look at the election maps for 1989, 1994 and 1998 and it won’t be as surprising.

Rio Grande do Sul in those elections was always the most pro-PT state, alongside Rio de Janeiro (yup, feels like a loooong time ago). In 2002 it also voted for Lula but the entire country also did it so it’s less newsworthy.

Only in 2006 it shifted to PSDB in presidential elections and kept doing it in 2010 and 2014. In 2018 it voted for Bolsonaro.

If anything the noticeable trend from the state is its strong anti-incumbent bias. It voted for PT when it was out of power, but voted for the right whenever PT (or its VP, Temer) was in power. Now it’s going back to PT because it’s out of power… If Lula wins, they will turn to the right in 2026.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ipec conducted recent polls about the presidential election in all the 26 states and the Federal District. Some results I have already shown here

The map is the following one

Surprising to see Rio Grande do Sul going for Lula.

Look at the election maps for 1989, 1994 and 1998 and it won’t be as surprising.

Rio Grande do Sul in those elections was always the most pro-PT state, alongside Rio de Janeiro (yup, feels like a loooong time ago). In 2002 it also voted for Lula but the entire country also did it so it’s less newsworthy.

Only in 2006 it shifted to PSDB in presidential elections and kept doing it in 2010 and 2014. In 2018 it voted for Bolsonaro.

If anything the noticeable trend from the state is its strong anti-incumbent bias. It voted for PT when it was out of power, but voted for the right whenever PT (or its VP, Temer) was in power. Now it’s going back to PT because it’s out of power… If Lula wins, they will turn to the right in 2026.

I guess it comes down to the time frame that is held to be most relevant.
I know that state once was one of a very few that voted for Lula, but those days of the left doing that unusually well were mostly over.
Though, it shouldn't be surprising to see Lula winning there if Bolsonaro has less than a dozen states voting for him.
What makes Rio Grande do Sul the most left-leaning of those three?

[buritobr]

PT has more roots in Rio Grande do Sul than in the 2 other southern states

[Red Velvet]

Not to mention the armed resistance against the dictatorship during the Brizola government in RS during the early 60s, which postponed the coup for at least three years. The state has their political history.

There are general regional stereotypes but they are just that, stereotypes. Each state kinda has their particularity, some more than the others. In the South, Paraná I associate it more to São Paulo interior behavior trends, while Santa Catarina represents more the idea of the stereotype itself because of the larger density concentration of these white people since it’s a small state and the majority of the people live in the “Serra” - bit higher altitude places where these towns concentrate.

Rio Grande do Sul also has an area like this - called Serra Gaúcha, with very similar voting patterns from these towns Santa Catarina - but the state is much bigger overall and people aren’t as much concentrated in those places like in Santa Catarina overall.

Look at the 2014 and 2018 vote by municipality and you will get what I am saying. You can identify this area of “Serra” in parts of both Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul which concentrates these very wealthy towns with people 100% disconnected from the average reality of the country.

This place is exactly the darker blue or green located in northeastern area of Rio Grande do Sul (small area in comparison to all the state and not where the majority of people in the state are) + Basically the entire eastern half of Santa Catarina (where there are more people than in the western half)

[buritobr]

After the stagflation of 1974/75, Jimmy Carter had a very high lead in the polls. Gerald Ford could close the gap after the recovery in 1976 and the celebration of the 200 years of the independence. But he lost.
There are some paralells. But that 200 year celebration was much bigger than the one we will have now. There will be only pro Bolsonaro rallies conducted by his yellow T-shirts cattle and the heart of the emperor. We had a very bad luck to have the worst administration of our history in this aniversary.

[Red Velvet]

Looking at the IPEC poll map for 2022 and comparing it to past election, the big “novelty” should be São Paulo. PSDB or the right always wins there in presidential elections, the sole exception was 2002 but every state minus Alagoas voted Lula that year. That’s not the case in 2022, so it’s big that São Paulo starts leaning more to PT against Bolsonaro.

I think it shows that São Paulo voter is probably the least affected by populism of any kind lol. They always loved the hell out of PSDB against but now that it’s out of the national picture, it’s leaning Lula (already experienced who represents a better idea of stability than Bolsonaro) for the first time.

São Paulo is more right-wing than Rio de Janeiro under a PSDB vs PT logic. Under a PT vs Bolsonaro, we’re seeing that Rio becomes more right-wing than São Paulo because populism is much more effective in Rio. Especially outside the capital.

Living in Rio, I sometimes work just outside the capital, in the Baixada Fluminense. And it’s amazing that the logic is different in Rio than what it is in the rest of the country, especially the Northeast, where Lula is his most popular with low educated and low income segments.

But when I go to Baixada, I can often hear the notion when talking about politics that “only university students will vote for Lula”. Which is not true nationally at all if you look at the polls division by segment - if anything people with a diploma is with Lula does his worst. However it rings true in Rio for lower income working class segments.

PT may have a stronghold and party identification among working classes in most places, including São Paulo, but I don’t see that as a reality in Rio at all. If anything, in Rio I kinda expect the wealthier capital + Niterói to be driving the vote to the left.

Another thing I learned by visiting Baixada Fluminense often is how Centrão candidates get elected so often for congress. The same stickers and political propaganda are spread all throughout the city for only the same two or three candidates everywhere. One of them even entered the restaurant I was eating and interrupted my meal to ask for my vote.

If you live in a town and you only see the same guy there, you will think he will give the town more spotlight if elected instead of anyone else who don’t even go to the city, passing an idea of elitism. I do wonder about the militia connections these politicians have though and how much of this propaganda domination is spontaneous…

[buritobr]

Here you can see the map of the states, according to Ipec polls, of the catholic vote and the map of the evangelic vote. Lula polls much better in the group of catholics, Bolsonaro polls much better in the group of evangelics.



Lula is leading in the group of the evangelic voters only in Bahia, Piauí, Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte. Besides, in these states, the evangelic population is small, and so, there is a double effect which favors Lula in these states.

Bolsonaro is leading in the group of catholics only in Roraima, Acre, Rondônia, Mato Grosso, Paraná and Santa Catarina. Besides, Roraima, Acre and Rondônia have very large evangelic population, so, there is a double effect in these states. In Paraná and Santa Catarina, the evangelic population is low, but Bolsonaro is doing very small because the catholics in these states are very right-wing.

[buritobr]

Ipec National Poll, September 2nd-4th 2022

First round
Lula 44% (0)
Jair Bolsonaro 31% (-1)
Ciro Gomes 8% (+1)
Simone Tebet 4% (+1)
Blank/nulified 6% (-1)
Didn't decide yet 5% (-1)

Runoff
Lula 52% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 36% (-1)
Blank/nulified 9% (0)
Didn't decide yet 3% (-1)

[Red Velvet]

Yay! Great poll. Sounds like Bolsonaro slow but gradual growth peaked. The numbers feel crystallized, you don’t really see big variations from poll to poll, unlike past years.

Which is a consequence of people discussing and anticipating this election years in advance. The majority of people already had their minds made up for a loooong time now, since the pandemic peak in early 2021 (of all the many evil things, THAT’S what really hurt Bolsonaro reputation with some people who voted for him in 2018, including his cruel dismissal of vaccines), so it will be surprising if the final result is much different.

We’re kinda lucky the Brazilian right is so dumb and such a bitch of the US right-wing talking points that they don’t understand their own country. Mocking health issues is kinda like a blasphemy here for the big majority and creates a contradiction with Bolsonaro image of a Christian. I can remember seeing with my own eyes the moment lots of his 2018 free-market sympathizers jumped off from the crazy ship and it was indeed early 2021, when tons of people were dying and the president was simply incapable of demonstrating empathy. The denialist antivaxx stuff backfired hard on them, as this is a country where people have this culture of LOVING to take vaccines, medications and are generally very health-oriented.

Important to notice the valid votes though. Lula barely misses a 1st round win on this one, as he has 44% and the sum of all his adversaries is 45%, so he’s only 1% lower than what he needed to have in order to win.

[Red Velvet]

Because let’s be honest, as much as this will be a big triumph for Lula after all the recent history if he indeed wins, the left still feels mediocre and weak, coasting on nostalgia only and lacking a clear vision for the future. They sound like they think it’s still the 00s.

More than a Lula triumph, if he wins despite the left looking weak, what this election really means more is a condemnation of Bolsonaro and what he represents. Tons of people who never voted PT before and aren’t fans of the party, feel inclined to do it for the first now EXCLUSIVELY for the sake of kicking Bolsonaro’s ass only.

These numbers really feel more like a rejection of the current president than a full embrace of PT (which sounded much fresher in the 00s and before).

[Red Velvet]

Regarding this last IPEC poll, here’s what I consider the most important thing, the demographics division, since it usually tells us details of what’s going on.

Only listed the top 4 candidates, I’m not showing the changes the other irrelevant ones had, neither the blank/null segment.

AUXÍLIO BRASIL

Between people from families that benefit from the Auxílio Brasil program:
Lula 50% (-2)
Bolsonaro 27% (-2)
Ciro Gomes 8% (0)
Simone Tebet 3% (+2)

Between people from families that do not benefit from the Auxílio Brasil program:
Lula 41% (+1)
Bolsonaro 33% (0)
Ciro Gomes 8% (+1)
Simone Tebet 4% (+1)

CITY CONDITION/STATUS

Capitals of the State
Lula 46% (+8)
Bolsonaro 30% (-6)
Ciro Gomes 8% (-1)
Simone Tebet 4% (+1)

Periphery Areas (Just outside the big cities, surrounding them)
Lula 42% (-6)
Bolsonaro 31% (+6)
Ciro Gomes 8% (-2)
Simone Tebet 6% (+1)

Interior Areas of the State
Lula 43% (-2)
Bolsonaro 31% (-1)
Ciro Gomes 8% (+2)
Simone Tebet 4% (+2)

EDUCATION

Finished Middle School or Less
Lula 54% (+2)
Bolsonaro 24% (-1)
Ciro Gomes 6% (0)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)

Finished High School
Lula 40% (+1)
Bolsonaro 34% (-3)
Ciro Gomes 8% (0)
Simone Tebet 4% (+1)

Finished University
Lula 36% (-3)
Bolsonaro 34% (0)
Ciro Gomes 11% (+2)
Simone Tebet 5% (+1)

AGE

16-24 age
Lula 43% (-8)
Bolsonaro 29% (+2)
Ciro Gomes 11% (+1)
Simone Tebet 2% (+1)

25-34 age
Lula 42% (+1)
Bolsonaro 33% (-3)
Ciro Gomes 10% (+2)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)

35-44 age
Lula 41% (0)
Bolsonaro 32% (-5)
Ciro Gomes 7% (+1)
Simone Tebet 4% (+2)

45-59 age
Lula 45% (+2)
Bolsonaro 30% (-1)
Ciro Gomes 8% (+2)
Simone Tebet 5% (+1)

60+ age
Lula 48% (+5)
Bolsonaro 30% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 5% (-4)
Simone Tebet 5% (0)

SIZE OF THE CITY

Less than 50k population
Lula 45% (-6)
Bolsonaro 31% (+3)
Ciro Gomes 8% (+2)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)

Between 50k and 500k population
Lula 42% (+2)
Bolsonaro 33% (-1)
Ciro Gomes 7% (+1)
Simone Tebet 4% (+1)

More than 500k population - see the correlation with Lula’s growth in the capitals
Lula 45% (+6)
Bolsonaro 29% (-5)
Ciro Gomes 8% (-2)
Simone Tebet 4% (+1)

RACE / SKIN COLOR

White
Lula 40% (+1)
Bolsonaro 33% (-2)
Ciro Gomes 8% (+1)
Simone Tebet 4% (0)

Black and Brown
Lula 47% (0)
Bolsonaro 29% (-1)
Ciro Gomes 8% (+1)
Simone Tebet 4% (+2)

Others (ex: Asian; Indigenous, etc)
Lula 44% (-8)
Bolsonaro 35% (+11)
Ciro Gomes 8% (-4)
Simone Tebet 2% (+2)

REGION OF THE COUNTRY - The most fun to look imo because you can always see big differences between each other here

Northeast Region - 2nd most populated region and the PT stronghold
Lula 56% (-1)
Bolsonaro 23% (-2)
Ciro Gomes 10% (+3)
Simone Tebet 1% (0)

North and Center-West Region - The two least populated regions combined, on the inlands of the country, away from the coastline the other three regions have and where people usually concentrate on
Bolsonaro 40% (0)
Lula 35% (-5)
Ciro Gomes 9% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (0)

Southeast Region - Most populated region, concentrating São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais, the top 3 most populated states of the country
Lula 41% (+2)
Bolsonaro 30% (-3)
Ciro Gomes 7% (0)
Simone Tebet 5% (+2)

South Region - 3rd most populated region, bordering Uruguay/Paraguay/Argentina
Lula 39% (+3)
Bolsonaro 39% (+5)
Simone Tebet 5% (0)
Ciro Gomes 4% (-3)

RELIGION

Catholics
Lula 50% (-1)
Bolsonaro 26% (-1)
Ciro Gomes 8% (+1)
Simone Tebet 4% (+1)

Evangelicals
Bolsonaro 46% (-2)
Lula 27% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 7% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)

No Religion + Other Religions
Lula 48% (+3)
Bolsonaro 23% (-4)
Ciro Gomes 10% (+1)
Simone Tebet 4% (+1)

INCOME

Less than 1 MW
Lula 56% (+2)
Bolsonaro 21% (-1)
Ciro Gomes 7% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)

Between 1 MW - 2 MW
Lula 49% (+2)
Bolsonaro 26% (-5)
Ciro Gomes 7% (+1)
Simone Tebet 4% (+1)

Between 2 MW - 5 MW
Bolsonaro 40% (+3)
Lula 34% (-5)
Ciro Gomes 10% (+2)
Simone Tebet 4% (+1)

More than 5 MW
Bolsonaro 45% (-2)
Lula 28% (0)
Ciro Gomes 10% (0)
Simone Tebet 5% (+1)

GENDER

Female
Lula 45% (0)
Bolsonaro 26% (-3)
Ciro Gomes 9% (+2)
Simone Tebet 5% (+2)

Male
Lula 43% (+2)
Bolsonaro 36% (0)
Ciro Gomes 7% (0)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)

[Red Velvet]

Country overall population per region is distributed kinda like this:

Southeast Region - 42,1%
Northeast Region - 27,8%
South Region - 14,3%
North Region - 8,4%
Center-West Region - 7,4%

[Red Velvet]

The most recent poll for Rio Governor… UGH

Rio deserves to be humiliated for always electing the same options but at the same time… the left deserves the same with their defeats in Rio.

These people don’t know how to campaign or even organize themselves. Look at the whole Freixo campaign mess and how PT-RJ threw him under the bus.

Freixo campaign also doesn’t do much favor to themselves. You gotta go to where people are. This was already a common commentary in the mayoral elections, imagine in the governor ones.

I get that Castro has the machine on his side, but that should only be a stimulus to do even more. But it’s like there’s only one Governor candidate when you look at the propaganda on the street. Some PT folders don’t even show Freixo, or even put his number in the santinhos they give.

I refuse to vote for these people. It’s so hard to root for the Rio left even though they’re the best option over milicianos. But the incompetence angers me so much.

For Deputada Federal I already made up my mind and will vote for Heloísa Helena (REDE), who’s running here in Rio. I don’t mind my vote pushing more people from REDE at all.

Deputada Estadual I’m currently leaning to Delegada Martha Rocha (PDT), which makes it likely that this will be the first election ever I will NOT vote for PSOL on anything. I started voting in 2012 and I had always picked PSOL for almost everything. Always my choice for the legislative options and frequently for Mayor or even Governor as well.

Governor I’m already thinking it doesn’t really matter who I pick. If Freixo had a better campaign and were showing more confidence on his own signature proposals, I would be easily voting for him. But the Castro growth doesn’t stimulate it. I might vote Rodrigo Neves (PDT) by default because he had a pretty good administration in Niterói. But I will only close the deal later on.

So far this is where I’m at:

Presidente - Lula (PT)

Governor - Rodrigo Neves (PDT) but it still could be Freixo (PSB) if there’s a rebound and he has a chance by the runoff projection polls

Senador - Alessandro Molon (PSB)

Deputada Federal - Heloísa Helena (REDE)

Deputada Estadual - Delegada Martha Rocha (PDT)

I hate voting in Rio sooooo much! I hope that in 10 years I will be somewhere else. Hopefully São Paulo or something.

[Pivaru]

New Ipec statewide polls for the presidential race:

São Paulo:
Lula (PT) - 44%
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 28%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 6%
Simone Tebet - 5%
Others - 3%
Blank/null - 8%
Don't know - 6%

Minas Gerais:
Lula (PT) - 46%
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 30%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 5%
Simone Tebet - 4%
Others - 2%
Blank/null - 8%
Don't know - 5%

Rio de Janeiro:
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 39%
Lula (PT) - 38%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 6%
Simone Tebet - 4%
Others - 1%
Blank/null - 6%
Don't know - 5%

Pernambuco:
Lula (PT) - 62%
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 22%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 5%
Simone Tebet - 2%
Others - 1%
Blank/null - 3%
Don't know - 4%

Distrito Federal:
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 42%
Lula (PT) - 29%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 10%
Simone Tebet - 6%
Others - 2%
Blank/null - 7%
Don't know - 4%

This is the first time Bolsonaro appears in an Ipec poll leading in Rio, but I don't think that's particularly surprising since he represented the state before becoming president. Rio was the birthplace of Bolsonarismo. In any case, Bolsonaro's newly found slight lead there is overshadowed by Lula increasing his lead in São Paulo and Minas (Lula grew 4% and 1%, respectively, Bolsonaro shrunk 3% in SP and didn't change in Minas)

[Pivaru]

Ipec also released polls for some statewide races, I'm putting them inside spoilers so it doesn't take too much space.

Rio de Janeiro:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Governor:
1st Round:
Claudio Casto (PL, supported by Bolsonaro, incumbent) - 37% (+11)
Marcelo Freixo (PSB, supported by Lula)  - 26% (+3)
Rodrigo Neves (PDT, supported by Ciro) - 7% (+1)
Others - 11%
Blank/null - 13% (-6)
Don't know/didn't answer - 10% (-6)

2nd Round:
Claudio Castro (PL) - 43% (+5)
Marcelo Freixo (PSB) - 31% (-4)
Blank/null - 16% (-1)
Don't know/didn't answer - 10% (-1)

Senator:
Romário (PL, supports Bolsonaro, incumbent) - 32% (+2)
Clarissa Garotinha (UNIÃO, supports Bolsonaro) - 8% (+3)
Alessandro Molon (PSB, supports Lula) - 7% (-1)
Cabo Daciolo (PDT) - 7% (+1)
Andre Ceciliano (PT, supported by Lula) - 7% (+2)
Daniel Silveira (PTB, supports Bolsonaro, barred from running by the court today) - 6% (-1)
Others - 5%
Blank/null - 12% (-5)
Don't know/didn't answer - 16% (-2)

São Paulo:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Governor:
1st Round:
Fernando Haddad (PT, supported by Lula) - 36% (+4)
Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicanos, supported by Bolsonaro) - 21% (+4)
Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB, incumbent) - 14% (+4)
Others - 7%
Blank/null - 10% (-5)
Don't know/didn't answer - 12% (-8)

2nd Round:
Tarcisio vs Haddad:
Fernando Haddad (PT) - 43% (-4)
Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicanos) - 32% (+1)
Blank/null - 15% (+3)
Don't know/didn't answer - 10% (-)

Garcia vs Haddad:
Fernando Haddad (PT) - 42 (-3)
Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) - 31 (+2)
Blank/null - 17% (+1)
Don't know/didn't answer - 11% (+1)

Tarcisio vs Garcia:
Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) - 32% (+4)
Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicanos) - 31% (-)
Blank/null - 22% (-)
Don't know/didn't answer - 16% (-3)

Minas Gerais:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Governor:
1st Round:
Romeu Zema (Novo, not officially supported by Bolsonaro, but close to him, incumbent) - 47% (+3)
Alexandre Kalil (PSD, supported by Lula) - 31% (+7)
Carlos Viana (PL, supported by Bolsonaro) - 2% (-1)
Others - 4%
Blank/null - 8% (-3)
Don't know/didn't answer - 8% (-5)

2nd Round:
Romeu Zema (Novo) -  52% (-)
Alexandre Kalil (PSD) - 34% (+4)
Blank/null - 9% (-1)
Don't know/didn't answer - 6% (-3)

Senator:
Cleitinho (PSC, supports Bolsonaro) - 18% (+3)
Alexandre Silveira (PSD, supported by Lula, incumbent) - 13% (+3)
Marcelo Aro (PP, supported by Zema) - 10% (+5)
Others - 16%
Blank/null - 15% (-4)
Don't know/didn't answer - 29% (-6)

Pernambuco:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Governor:
Marilia Arraes (Solidariedade, supports Lula) - 38% (+5)
Raquel Lyra (PSDB) - 13% (+1)
Anderson Ferreira (PL, supported by Bolsonaro) - 12% (+1)
Danilo Cabral (PSB, supported by Lula) - 8% (-)
Miguel Coelho (UNIÃO) - 8% (-1)
Others - 5%
Blank/null - 8% (-5)
Don't know/didn't answer - 8% (-1)

Senator:
Teresa Leitão (PT, supported by Lula) - 24% (+9)
André de Paula (PSD, supported by Marilia) - 10% (-3)
Guilherme Coelho (PSDB) - 9% (-1)
Gilson Machado (PL, supported by Bolsonaro) - 9% (+2)
Others - 13%
Blank/null - 19% (-4)
Don't know/didn't answer - 17% (-1)

Distrito Federal:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Governor:
Ibaneis Rocha (MDB, supported by Bolsonaro, incumbent) - 46% (+5)
Octavio Rocha (PSD) - 9% (-)
Leila do Volei (PDT, supported by Ciro) - 9% (-)
Leandro Grass (PV, supported by Lula) - 8% (+1)
Others - 8%
Blank/null - 11% (-2)
Don't know/didn't answer - 9% (-2)

Gubernatorial and senatorial polls are certainly not the "be all end all" at this point in the campaign, a lot of people tend to decide their votes pretty close to the election (for example, in 2018, Zema had 5% in early September, but then during the last week, he jumped to 15% and subsequently, got 41% of the vote on election day). That said, I guess they can still reveal information about who to pay attention and reveal some general trends.

I've seen quite a few people being very optimistic about São Paulo, but I'm still kinda skeptical about Haddad winning. Most people are just now getting to know Garcia and Tarcisio, it seems to me that they probably have more room to grow than Haddad, who is already very well known due to his 2018 presidential run. Haddad is also the candidate who currently has the highest rejection levels among the paulista electorate.

A second round seems likely in São Paulo and it doesn't seem like a huge stretch to imagine the opposition to PT and Haddad coalescing around whoever faces him there. Of course, this doesn't mean Haddad is done, this may just be the best chance PT has had of winning the state government of São Paulo since the end of the military regime, but I doubt it will be as easy as some people in the left wing sphere of the Brazilian internet seem to be suggesting.

Kalil grew a lot in Minas since the last Ipec poll, mostly because the people who live in the interior are getting to know him and associating the guy with Lula. That said, I don't think just being associated to Lula will be enough to put Kalil over the top, Zema is a pretty popular governor (48% approval rating according to Ipec, only 19% of people disapprove of him), a lot of people seem to see him as "the guy who got the state to get back to paying government workers on day" and he has done a fairly effective job at walking the line between being friendly with Bolsonaro but also seeming independent enough to win the votes from anti-Bolsonaro center-right, centrist and even center-left voters.

Different from São Paulo, Minas seems to be heading towards a one turn election, mostly because there are only two candidates with a really expressive share of the vote. Really, a second round will only happen if Viana is able to siphon enough Zema votes to get him below the threshold. His campaign primordially consists of saying "I'm the Bolsonaro guy, if you like Bolsonaro, vote for me! Look at this video, that's me giving a speech while Bolsonaro is by my side, pretty cool huh?". The guy still has about a month, but I'm certainly not betting on him.

And as for Rio, I almost feel bad for the left there, until I remember that the party leaderships very often put themselves in these kinds of situations. It's endearing how they are able to consistently shoot themselves in the foot. If Freixo does end up losing, maybe they'll learn some kind of lesson. Nah, who am I kidding? Of course they won't.

[buritobr]

Very interesting!
Sum of the results of the presidential election in the state capitals in 1955, 1960, 1989, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018. We can see also in a map how did the capitals and the states vote in these elections. In 1989, 1994, 1998, 2002, the capitals voted on the left of the country. In 1955, 1960, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, the capitals voted on the right of the country. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GilRGHRgOnE

I this other video, we can see the results of the presidential elections in the whole country, to compare https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_qv3EOhZBg

[Red Velvet]

And as for Rio, I almost feel bad for the left there, until I remember that the party leaderships very often put themselves in these kinds of situations. It's endearing how they are able to consistently shoot themselves in the foot. If Freixo does end up losing, maybe they'll learn some kind of lesson. Nah, who am I kidding? Of course they won't.

I get genuinely angry at the disorganization and lack of strategy that I don’t want to vote for Freixo partially out of bitterness for the horrible campaign.

It’s almost like these people do it on purpose because they don’t want to get elected or something. I’m sure a lot of the PT (and others) is aligned with Castro because basically every city in the State is, so they want to assure their share in the future for sabotaging Freixo or something.

Not that Freixo does himself favors either. In EVERY mayoral election what drove him to get major support to go to a runoff was the passion from enthusiastic supporters who believed in him.

Now he’s running for Governor, without ever winning an executive position, trying to pass as a centrist because he thinks he cannot win as a leftist. The comment about being against drugs legalization was cringe. I’m like, bitch please. Everyone already knows who you are.

Like, people who are very against him because of that stuff won’t become more open to vote for him over Castro only because he’s trying to sound like a moderate. But the people who love him because of what he always represented will not motivated to rally on the street campaign this time. The machine and the establishment stay against him; the more conservative audience will keep rejecting him no matter what and this time he also doesn’t have the ground organic support.

Not to mention, Freixo seems incapable of dialoguing with some places. I get that there’s a lot against him with the militia wanting to assassinate him and stuff, but that shouldn’t be intimidating enough that you simply don’t go talk to people in these places.

I’m probably going Rodrigo Neves (PDT) because he doesn’t have the same baggage as Freixo and sounds like a good administrator, even if not exciting or revolutionary (like Freixo represented with proposals like drug legalization). But I do think he maybe would have better chances of defeating Castro in a runoff because of that.

Not that I think the Carioca left will drop Freixo when he’s the Lula candidate and they keep banking on him no matter what. I would hope this Governor run would raise Freixo profile for the Mayor run in 2024, but Eduardo Paes will probably run for re-election, so who am I kidding? Freixo is better on federal congress, but maybe after losing in 2024 he can finally be the Mayor in 2028.

This year for me it’s all about rational pragmatism. Rio will end up being only state in the Southeast that goes for Bolsonaro and a lot of that is the left fault. Would rather have Ciro and Freixo ideally, but will go for Lula and Rodrigo Neves.

[Red Velvet]

Brazil is a Virgo and it reaches the age of 200 today.

The last 4 years feel only like a crazy dream or a bad joke today. This is the guy people were scared that it would pull a coup to become a dictator:

https://www.twitter.com/BernardoMF/status/1567522981928206336
After kissing the First Lady, he tries to start a crowd chant of “Imbrochável” which I’m not sure I can translate here due to lack of English vocabulary, but it basically means that he’s asserting his masculinity by pushing his supporters to chant that he never loses his erection during sex.

I feel much much more comfortable now that Brazil is going to be fine. Because if THIS pathetic sexually insecure guy gets enough competent support for a SUCCESSFUL coup, it means we don’t even deserve to exist as a nation because there’s more people concerned about defending the honor of their president penis than their country and fellow citizens in the first place and in that case I shouldn’t even be concerned about this democracy, I happily adopt some other place nationality and say bye. Thankfully, that will never happen.