Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Zebulan9003]

Is there anyone notable who endorsed Hadad/PT in 2018 and now endorses Bolsonaro?

Maybe Michel Temer voted this way? He supports Bolsonaro now but didn’t endorse in 2018, though he may have privately voted Haddad

[Sir Mohamed]

The head-to-head polls have significantly tightened... at this rate, I think Bolsonaro has a higher chance to win reelection since at least the 2nd year of his term. I have a gut feeling he pulls this off, although my mind says that Lula will prevail by an underwhelming margin.

[Zebulan9003]

https://twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/1577678646319489027

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/sachasiani/status/1578449969459367938

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

https://twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/1577678646319489027

Lula was President of Brazil for 8 years and Brazil was arguably at its most prosperous when he was President - who would believe this BS?

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/1577678646319489027

Lula was President of Brazil for 8 years and Brazil was arguably at its most prosperous when he was President - who would believe this BS?

Bolsonaro supporters, obviously. They are not right in the head. Right wing populism is an illness.

[buritobr]

Is there anyone notable who endorsed Hadad/PT in 2018 and now endorses Bolsonaro?

No one I know

[buritobr]

Datafolha showed a 5p lea for Lula in the 1st poll after the 1st round. Before the 1st round, Datafolha overrated Lula and underrate Bolsonaro. But in this 1st poll for the runoff, the pollster corrected the problem concerning the biased sample.

[Peeperkorn]

Datafolha showed a 5p lea for Lula in the 1st poll after the 1st round. Before the 1st round, Datafolha overrated Lula and underrate Bolsonaro. But in this 1st poll for the runoff, the pollster corrected the problem concerning the biased sample.

How?

[Umengus]

what's happen now ? is bolsonaro changed strategy to win ? more moderate ? more unity ? a new man, at least on paper ?

[Senator Incitatus]

what's happen now ? is bolsonaro changed strategy to win ? more moderate ? more unity ? a new man, at least on paper ?

Would imagine a lot of any shift to Bolsonaro is (a) pollsters improving methodology, since they now have a much better sense of who is making a choice and (b) the “back-the-winner” mentality, in which voters are more likely to choose Bolsonaro because they now view him as viable.

Still will be moderately surprised to see him get over the hump.

[Red Velvet]

Runoff polls usually tend to be more accurate because there’s also lots of movement happening just in the final 24h of the 1st round and that’s something that usually benefits the right a bit more.

In 2018 Bolsonaro had 40% in the final 1st round poll. His actual result was 46%. Overperformance of 6%, the same he in effect got in 2022 as well.

Aécio Neves had 24% in the final 1st round poll, practically tied with Marina Silva who they gave 22%. In the final result Aécio got 33% of the vote, an overperformance of 9%.

People here are losing their sh**t with theories but this is nothing really new and something that always happen with 1st round polls.

Based on 1st round results my baseline is around Lula 52,5% Bolsonaro 47,5% as a realistic result (based on 1st round results only, still 3 weeks of campaign to go), so any poll that gives Lula between 52-53 in this immediate post-election moment feels about right IMO.

Datafolha gives Lula 53% now which sounds about correct, so it will be interesting to follow that one. IPEC I think it’s still underestimating the Bolsonaro vote a slightly bit with Lula 55%, so I think it will eventually stabilize to match Datafolha or else if they keep being different, always go with the less optimistic one.

Quaest gives Lula 54%, so maybe it shows that Lula gets more few more new votes than Bolsonaro. I based my estimation of Lula 52,5% Bolsonaro 47,5% on both getting the same amount of new valid vote % from the 1st round with both growing around 4%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout usually drops a little between the first and second rounds and essentially no one switches from their first round choice if that first round choice makes it into the final round: this alone makes polling, in theory, a lot easier for the runoff.

[Shilly]

Here's a swing map of specifically Bolsonaro's first round vote. Overall it dropped from 46% in 2018 to 43% this year.



Open in new tab for full size.

[buritobr]

Datafolha showed a 5p lea for Lula in the 1st poll after the 1st round. Before the 1st round, Datafolha overrated Lula and underrate Bolsonaro. But in this 1st poll for the runoff, the pollster corrected the problem concerning the biased sample.

How?

The share of people who had income smaller than 2 minimum wages was overrated in the sample. This bias was corrected for the runoff.

[buritobr]

Here's a swing map of specifically Bolsonaro's first round vote. Overall it dropped from 46% in 2018 to 43% this year.



Open in new tab for full size.

Since Bolsonaro had a positive swing in municipalities he did very bad in 2018 and a negative swing in municipalities he did well in 2018, the geographic polarization decreased in 2022.
After the increase of the value of the "Auxílio Brasil" (income transfer program), he had some gains in very poor municipalities, but he still lost them by large margin.

[Red Velvet]

Lmao at Campos dos Goytacazes (it’s that, right?) being literally the only municipality in Rio state that had a swing to the right.

Overall the Bolsonaro biggest losses in comparison to 2018 were in the Southeast like polls predicted, but he still managed to win the region, although to a much closer margin.

You can see that populous cities and municipalities surround them like Rio, Brasília and São Paulo concentrate the reddest shifts to the left. These places had large margins for Bolsonaro in 2018.

Meanwhile Bolsonaro’s growth in the Northeast was more shy (but still significant, otherwise we wouldn’t go to a runoff) and the region still remains a big PT stronghold, although there is timid evidence of geographic depolarization there too to counter the larger shifts in the Southeast in favor of Lula.

In the lesser populated areas from North region (or Northwest, if becomes easier to see in the map) is where Bolsonaro registered his biggest growths. Note that even there the most populated cities still shifted to the left though, Manaus is a pink exception in a very blue Amazonas. And that was enough to flip Amazonas state from Bolsonaro in 2018 to Lula in 2022 since the large majority of people in that state live in Manaus.

Big urban gains for Lula in heavily populated urban areas while Bolsonaro rises a lot in lesser populated and isolated areas while having a shy growth in Northeast too.

Usually, the larger the area of the municipality, the less densely populated that area is. Some of those cities in the North may appear big but almost no one really lives there.

OBS: Ceará state being that blue in Northeast doesn’t really say much because that’s Ciro Gomes state, where he won in 2018. Since the Ciro vote this year collapsed there, both Lula and Bolsonaro % benefited from that. So if you made a vote indicating the PT vote shift that state area in the Northeast would simultaneously be very red as well.

It’s in less populated areas from North region, where Agro may have made advances on their influence in order to deforest the Amazon Rainforest, where Bolsonaro really got much stronger.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Jesus Horatio Christ:

Jair Bolsonaro Cannibalism

Is this just because I haven't slept in like twenty four hours or is this real.

[jaichind]

Jesus Horatio Christ:

Jair Bolsonaro Cannibalism

Is this just because I haven't slept in like twenty four hours or is this real.

I think a Brazil judge already banned the Lula ad linking Bolsonaro to cannibalism

[jaichind]

Economist poll of polls. I am not aware of any polls that has the race as tied

[Pivaru]

The Lula campaign has been discussing internally how to appease evangelical votes, the answer they have landed on seems to releasing a letter to them, similar to Lula's 2002 "letter to the Brazilian people", which helped him to soften his image ahead of that election. The new letter was elaborated by senator Eliziane Gama and, according to G1, its main points are the following:

- Freedom of religion will be guaranteed
- No churches will be closed
- Laws which go against the christian values, family and life won't be sent to congress
- Prejudice against evangelicals will be fought
- Evangelicals will have an "effective participation" in the government
- Evangelicals won't be barred from participating in the creation of public policy, in particular, those related to drug policy
- Social projects will be valued

The plan was for it to be released today, but it got delayed to Saturday, apparently due to internal disagreements in regards to the contents of the document. A lot of PT members are afraid that, in it's current form, the letter will be used as ammunition by the Bolsonaro camp, will be ignored by the evangelical voters and will anger the more progressive parts of PT's base. Tbf, I don't think these fears are unfounded, the idea of conceding stuff to evangelicals just seems counter intuitive from my point of view, I mean, it's very clear at this point most of them will just not vote for PT, at best they believe Lula is a closeted communist waiting to legalize drugs, abortion and corrupt the children. At worst, they believe that the guy is Satan's personal servant and is preparing to persecute christians in Brazil. I just don't think there's a lot to be gained here and it's hard to see a way to actually persuade these people into actually voting for Lula.

This part of the party defends that the version of the letter that comes out Saturday is more scaled back, mostly just addressing the whole "Lula will close the churches" conspiracy theory and defending freedom of religion. We'll see how this turns out on the 15th.

[President Johnson]

I start getting a feeling that Bolsonaro pulls this off. And I thought that he had a smaller chance to ever win a second term than Donald Trump at any point of the 2020 cycle.

[Senator Incitatus]

Economist poll of polls. I am not aware of any polls that has the race as tied

I can't make sense of the Economist model. They also had Lula at around 57% before the first round, when no polls had yet found that. I assumed at that point they'd been simply discarding undecideds/non-responses, but this is clearly something different, since Lula leads in every poll.

[Pivaru]

New Ipec presidential poll:

Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 51% (=)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 42% (-1)
Blank/null - 5% (+1)
Undecided - 2%

Valid votes:
Lula (PT): 55% (=)
Bolsonaro (PL): 45% (=)

[HidingCommentary]

Economist poll of polls. I am not aware of any polls that has the race as tied

I did some quick searching and none of the major pollsters have released a tied poll. Heres the link by the way.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/brazil-2022