Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro’s old party Brazil Union’s nominee Luciano Bivar has been replaced with Soraya Thronicke.

She seems to be standard right wing. Does she have a chance of making the runoff?

Simone Tebet is the strongest center-right candidate, but even her has very low probability to go to the runoff

[buritobr]

Impossible to be sympathetic towards PT when you’re from Rio. Now they are breaking the alliance with Freixo for Governor because Molon (same party as Freixo) is running for senate and they feel entitled to have their candidate as the alliance option in exchange of their support of Freixo.

In every other state, candidates bow down to PT all the freaking time when they know they have the weaker chances. In Rio, Freixo + Molon are clearly much better options with a potential André Ceciliano doesn’t have.

I’m 100% not voting on that party for any position other than president (and even for that, I’m still kinda split), because the options for the party in Rio are specially awful, although consistent with their track record.

A Marcelo Freixo governor, Alessandro Molon senator ticket would be too narrow for Lula in Rio de Janeiro, since both have their biggest supporting base in the middle class of the city of Rio de Janeiro. There is the danger of Bolsonaro build a large margin in the periphery of the metropolitan region and in the countryside. According to the recent polls, Lula is leading in the capital of the state, Bolsonaro is leading in the countryside and there is a tie in the periphery of the metropolitan region.
It's understandable PT deciding for a candidate for the senate who comes from "Baixada Fluminense" (the periphery of the metropolitan region). PT had >2/3 of Baixada in the runoff in 1989, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014 and Bolsonaro had >2/3 in 2018. PT considers André Ceciliano is important to bring the Baixada voters back to Lula.
PT and PSB decided to share the races in the whole country. PT doesn't have a candidate for governor of Rio de Janeiro and senator of São Paulo, PSB doesn't have a candidate for governor of São Paulo.
Still, the decision of the local office of PT in Rio de Janeiro to break with the PSB was very stupid. Good news that, today, the national office of the PT decided to keep the alliance with the PSB and support Marcelo Freixo.

[buritobr]

Today, there was the end of the deadline for the party conventions to decide the tickets for president, governor and senator. The official campaign time starts on August 16th.

[Red Velvet]

Good that Lula is pressuring the shameless PT-RJ (PT from Rio) to return back their support for Freixo in the Governor because it was completely ridiculous. They don’t even have anyone else to support there, unless they considered to jump on the Claudio Castro campaign alongside Bolsonaro, which I wouldn’t be surprised about.

They still have to resolve the mess regarding the Senate race though, which is one where it’s even more important to not have a divide.

I get that Rio operates under its own different crazy logic. I mean, it’s a place where it’s not that crazy to think of Bolsonaro-Freixo voters in some wealthier south zona areas, or Lula-Castro in others that were characterized for being strong towards Crivella.

That said, it’s telling they don’t have ANY better option in the state than André Ceciliano, considering his ties with militias and Bolsonaro sympathizers. What’s the point of PT even winning a seat then if it’s to be occupied by someone who could very well be in any other Centrão party???

I get the party bureaucracy and the electoral cynicism because PT is a political party before being something else, but that doesn’t mean voters will follow them blindly. The left in Rio cannot win with someone that the activist segments of the left just dislikes.

A majority of people will endorse Molon by default and this only contributes to divide the vote and facilitate a Romario win with these few PT activists now angry about Molon and using the same enemy kind of rhetoric they use/used against figures that don’t follow them on everything like Marina, Ciro, etc.

If the strategy for this particular year is to not divide the vote, in Rio I think it’s clear that it should be Lula-Freixo-Molon. And the earlier this was organized and cleared, the better chances the left has.

PT should put these more questionable candidates to campaign for them when running for seats in the Federal and/or State congress instead, in order to ensure gaining more seats and votes in those areas.

[Orange is back]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrianMteleSUR/status/1556001729740677120https://mobile.twitter.com/BrianMteleSUR/status/1556011408852148224

[Red Velvet]

Brazil election is in less than two months (October 2nd) and we have the final list of the candidates that will run, alongside their TV campaign time, which is decided by the size of party alliance in congress.

For each bloc containing 12min30sec:

Lula (PT) - 200 seconds
Bolsonaro (PL) - 160 seconds
Simone Tebet (MDB) - 141 seconds
Soraya Thronicke (União Brasil)- 130 seconds
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 49 seconds
Roberto Jefferson (PTB) - 22 seconds
Felipe D’Ávila (NOVO) - 19 seconds
Eymael (DC) - 8 seconds
Vera Lúcia (PSTU) - 7 seconds
Sofia Manzano (PCB) - 7 seconds
Leonardo Péricles (UP) - 7 seconds

Most recent poll from July 31st (datafolha):

1. Lula 47%
2. Bolsonaro 29%
3. Ciro Gomes 8%
4. Others combined 7%
Abstained/Undecided 9%

Note that TV time and % of vote intention on the polls don’t always perfectly align. But TV time can give some candidates more TV exposure, although that is less relevant in these internet days. But it used to be a bigger thing.

Now the campaign is about to really kick off with the TV ads. Things so far have been weirdly a non-event though, almost like you wouldn’t even know this is an important election year that we’re close to. The only signs are online but with the predictable same conversations/discussions from always that it doesn’t feel different from say, a year or two ago. Kinda like it has been an electoral cycle for the entire last four years that now we’re getting into one, it feels like a boring non-event.

The vibe is that things are more or less decided anyway (Lula will win on 1st or 2nd round, Bolsonaro won’t accept the results and will keep trying to sabotage the election unsuccessfully but maybe will try a revolution with his voters, others won’t be able to be relevant because most voters have unusually decided their minds with over a year of advance, etc).

At least until September 7th (Independence anniversary of 200 years of Brazil), there isn’t the expectation of anything significant happening other than TV interviews and stuff of the kind. But on Independence Day Bolsonaro is asking his supporters to go to the streets. Last time he dared to do this was well, September 7th of 2021, when there was a backlash for him because it was only moderately to smaller than expected sized and he started “behaving” more for the last year by shutting his mouth and stopping the controversial declarations.

So that’s a month until we see where this exactly goes.

[buritobr]

Today, there were the first TV debates of the candidates to state governors

[buritobr]

Since UB and Novo are very close to Bolsonaro, I considered the possibility of the real intent of these parties to have candidates, Soraya Thronicke and Filipe d'Ávila, is spliting the non-Bolsonaro conservative vote, avoid Simone Tebet concentrating all of them, and securing that Bolsonaro will go to the runoff. But this is not necessary: Tebet won't grow anyway, and Bolsonaro will go to the runoff, unless Lula already wins in the 1st round.

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll, state of São Paulo, August 5th-8th

Governor
1st round
Fernando Haddad (PT, endorsed by Lula): 34%
Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB, incumbent governor, center-right): 14%
Tarcísio Freitas (Rep, endorsed by Bolsonaro): 14%
Others: 6%
None: 19%
Undecided: 13%
Runoff
Haddad 44%, Tarcísio 31%
Haddad 41%, Tarcísio 32%

Senator
Marcio França (PSB, endorsed by Lula): 29%
Marcos Pontes (PL, endorsed by Bolsonaro): 12%
Janaína Paschoal (PRTB, she endorses Bolsonaro but she is not endorsed by him): 10%

Marcos Pontes was the Brazilian first astronaut. He traveled to the ISS in a Russian spaceship in 2006 https://www.space.com/1688-russia-agrees-launch-brazil-astronaut-iss.html
He was Bolsonaro's minister of science between 2019 and 2022

President
1st round
Lula 37%
Jair Bolsonaro 35%
Ciro Gomes 7%
Simone Tebet 3%
Others 2%
None 9%
Undecided 6%
Runoff
Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 40%

In the runoff in São Paulo in 2018, Bolsonaro had 68% and Fernando Haddad had 32%. It is not necessary to win in São Paulo to win the presidential election. Juscelino Kubitschek 1955, Lula 2006, Dilma Rousseff 2010&2014 won the presidential election without winning São Paulo.
However, São Paulo has 22% of the Brazilian population, it is the most populous state, and since the Northeast and the North won't swing to the left in 2022, it is important for Lula at least a tie in São Paulo.

Full data here: http://blog.quaest.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/GENIALQUAESTAGO22SP.pdf

[buritobr]

Quaest Poll, state of Minas Gerais, August 6th-9th

Governor
1st round
Romeu Zema (Novo, incumbent governor, close to Bolsonaro): 46%
Alexandre Khalil (PSD, endorsed by Lula): 24%
Runoff
Zema 55%, Khalil 29%

President
1st round
Lula 42%
Jair Bolsonaro 33%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Runoff
Lula 49%, Bolsonaro 37%

These numbers are still good for Lula, since Minas Gerais is the second most populous state, concentrates 11% of the Brazilian population, and since 1989, all the winners of presidential elections won in Minas Gerais. The margins in this state are very close to the national margins. It's a bellwheter state. There is one good news for Bolsonaro: the gap was 18% in July according to Quaest, and now the gap is 9%.
However, I observed that this sample was somehow biased. 48% of the people who answered this polls voted for Bolsonaro in the runoff 2018, 25% voted for Haddad, 11% didn't vote or were not voters yet, 10% nulified their votes, 3% didn't answer. The share of the 2018 vote in this poll is 65.8% for Bolsonaro, 34.2% for Haddad. But since the actual result of 2018 in Minas Gerais was 58.8% for Bolsonaro and 41.2% for Haddad, we can estimate that this sample is biased to the right, and Lula's gap now could be even bigger.

Full data of the poll here http://blog.quaest.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/QUAESTGENIALAGO22MG.pdf

[buritobr]

In the electronic voting machine, people type the number of the candidate, the name and the photo of the candidate appear on the screen, and then people type the green button in order to confirm the vote.
The presidential candidates already sent their photos which will appear in the machines.
We can see the photos here https://twitter.com/eixopolitico/status/1557362380337709058

[Red Velvet]

FSB poll was released. 1st voting round:

Lula 45% (+4)
Bolsonaro 34% (=)
Ciro Gomes 8% (+1)
Simone Tebet 2% (-1)
Other Candidates Combined 2% (-3)
Blank/Null/None 6% (-1)
Undecided 2%

Runoff:

Lula 53% (+2)
Bolsonaro 38% (-1)
Blank/Null/None 8% (=)
Undecided 2% (=)

FSB poll from today shows a different trend from the more recent poll showing Bolsonaro gaining ground with low-income voters thanks to the Auxílio Brasil economic support.

Because last Quaest polls showed him growing a lot in Minas Gerais and São Paulo and got me really worried. Let’s wait to see what the IPEC poll will point towards to. They’re realized less regularly so I guess Bolsonaro will grow at least a small bit compared to weeks / months ago. But as long as Lula maintains himself around 50% in the valid vote (this new FSB poll puts him around 49%), nothing really changes that much.

Because the vibe here is starting to be there will be a runoff vote thanks to the populist oriented electoral measures from Bolsonaro related to deflation (Bolsonaro basically cut fuel taxes, which reduced gas prices A LOT) and a large increase of Social Benefits (increase of Auxílio Brasil given to lower classes will be lasting only until December for the simple sake of this election, in hopes of boosting Bolsonaro’s popularity with segments that are more likely to vote for Lula, diminishing the high margin he has with this electorate).

[Red Velvet]

IPEC poll for president and governors in some key states was just released. Here are the results for president:

Lula (PT) 44%
Bolsonaro (PL) 32%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 6%
Simone Tebet (MDB) 2%
Vera Lúcia (PSTU) 1%
Blank/Null/None 8%
Undecided 7%

Runoff is:

Lula 51%
Bolsonaro 35%
Blank/Null/None 9%
Undecided 5%

Evaluation of Bolsonaro government:

Good or Great 29%
Regular 26%
Bad or Awful 43%
Don’t Know 1%

Approval of Bolsonaro government:

Approve 37%
Disapprove 57%
Don’t Know 6%

Not much difference from the FSB poll other than the number of blanks/nulls/none/undecided are higher here, so everyone’s numbers are slightly down in comparison to the FSB poll…

Which is good for Lula tbh, because it ups his valid vote % since those aren’t counted. Lula would win in 1st round according to this IPEC poll because he reaches 51,8% in the valid votes count:

Lula 44%
Bolsonaro + Everyone Else 41%
Invalid votes 15%

Valid votes sum up 85%, so Lula is with 44/85 = 51,8% approximately. And Bolsonaro with 37,6% (32/85).

[Red Velvet]

IPEC President poll (1st round) per State points to a Lula victory in all three major southeastern states:

São Paulo - Lula +12
Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 31%
Ciro 7%

Rio de Janeiro - Lula +4
Lula 41%
Bolsonaro 37%
Ciro 5%

Minas Gerais - Lula +13
Lula 42%
Bolsonaro 29%
Ciro 5%

Reminding that it’s the Northeast vote that pushes the strongest in favor of the PT, so Bolsonaro should’ve comfortably been winning those three big states if he wanted a chance.

The fact he’s losing, even if very slightly, in F-ing Rio de Janeiro (his home state and current militia-land and political wasteland) is very telling. He got large leads in Rio and São Paulo in 2018 and now at best he will struggle and have to fight to only barely win those (especially São Paulo, not a Lula-friendly state at all but one where he manages to be even more unpopular, funny how São Paulo is very anti-populist).

Meanwhile, Minas Gerais is seen as THE balance of the country, usually reflecting of the national vote. Everyone who has won in Minas, won the country as well (Dilma in 2014, Bolsonaro in 2018).

So it’s interesting to see Lula’s lead over Bozo in Minas Gerais (Lula +13) be so close to his lead in all the country (Lula +12). Minas has such a mix of multiple people from different backgrounds that it makes it the face of the average Brazilian, I guess.

[buritobr]

Rio Grande do Sul
Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 35%, Ciro Gomes 7%, Simone Tebet 2%

[buritobr]

FSB poll was released. 1st voting round:

Lula 45% (+4)
Bolsonaro 34% (=)
Ciro Gomes 8% (+1)
Simone Tebet 2% (-1)
Other Candidates Combined 2% (-3)
Blank/Null/None 6% (-1)
Undecided 2%

Runoff:

Lula 53% (+2)
Bolsonaro 38% (-1)
Blank/Null/None 8% (=)
Undecided 2% (=)

FSB poll from today shows a different trend from the more recent poll showing Bolsonaro gaining ground with low-income voters thanks to the Auxílio Brasil economic support.

Because last Quaest polls showed him growing a lot in Minas Gerais and São Paulo and got me really worried. Let’s wait to see what the IPEC poll will point towards to. They’re realized less regularly so I guess Bolsonaro will grow at least a small bit compared to weeks / months ago. But as long as Lula maintains himself around 50% in the valid vote (this new FSB poll puts him around 49%), nothing really changes that much.

Because the vibe here is starting to be there will be a runoff vote thanks to the populist oriented electoral measures from Bolsonaro related to deflation (Bolsonaro basically cut fuel taxes, which reduced gas prices A LOT) and a large increase of Social Benefits (increase of Auxílio Brasil given to lower classes will be lasting only until December for the simple sake of this election, in hopes of boosting Bolsonaro’s popularity with segments that are more likely to vote for Lula, diminishing the high margin he has with this electorate).

We have to be worried about the Quaest poll in São Paulo only if we pay attenction to the film, because the photo is very good. We see a growing trend for Bolsonaro and a declining trend for Lula, but if the moment stops here and Lula has a 2 point margin, it's very good for Lula. PT in presidential elections in São Paulo is like the Democrats in Kansas, the SPD in Bavaria, the Labour in southern England, the PS and LFI in Cote'd'Azur.

And this evening, Ipec showed much better numbers for Lula in São Paulo

[buritobr]

Campaign finally starts today. Yesterday, there was the deadline to register the candidates in the TSE (Electoral Supreme Court)

The candidates for president of Brazil and their running mates are

Luís Inácio Lula da Silva (PT, PCdoB, PV, Solidariedade, PSOL, Rede, PSB, Agir, Avante)
Geraldo Alckmin
President 2003-2010, leader of a broad alliance of left and center-left parties

Jair Bolsonaro (PL, PP, Republicanos)
Braga Netto
Far-right incumbent president seeking reelection

Ciro Gomes (PDT)
Ana Paula Matos
Former governor of Ceará (1991-1994), candidate for president in 1998, 2002, 2018. Center-left, former ally of PT, but now, bad relations with PT

Simone Tebet (MDB, PSDB, Cidadania, Podemos)
Mara Gabrilli
Senator of Mato Grosso do Sul, candidate of the biggest center-right parties

Felipe d'Avila (Novo)
Tiago Mitraud
Right, supporting small government

Soraya Thronicke (UB)
Marcos Cintra
Center-right

José Maria Eymael (DC)
João Barbosa Bravo
Christian Democrat. Candidate in almost all presidential elections of the New Republic. Famous for the song "Eeeymael, o democrata cristão"

Roberto Jefferson (PTB)
Kelton da Silva Souza
Right. Former Bolsonaro's ally. Former Lula's ally before the scandal of vote buying in 2005.

Vera Lúcia Salgado (PSTU)
Raquel Tremembé
Far-left. Trotskist.

Sophia Manzano (PCB)
Antônio Alves da Silva Junior
Far-left. Orthodox marxist-leninist.

Léo Péricles (UP)
Samara Martins
Far-left.

[buritobr]

Other states according to Ipec

Distrito Federal
Bolsonaro 40%, Lula 32%, Ciro Gomes 9%

Pernambuco
Lula 63%, Bolsonaro 22%, Ciro Gomes 4%

[buritobr]

Ipec polls in state capitals

São Paulo (São Paulo)
Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 24%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Simone Tebet 4%

Rio de Janeiro (Rio de Janeiro)
Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 32%, Ciro Gomes 6%, Simone Tebet 1%

Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais)
Lula 41%, Bolsonaro 32%, Ciro Gomes 3%, Simone Tebet 1%

Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul)
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 26%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Simone Tebet 3%

In the South and in the Southeast, the state capitals are polling much more to the left than the whole states

Recife (Pernambuco)
Lula 55%, Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 4%, Simone Tebet 3%

[buritobr]

Quaest, August 11-14
Lula 45% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 33% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 6% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)
According to Quaest, Lula was stable during 2022. Bolsonaro increased at the expense of the other candidates. Here we can see the trend https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1559844455942963200

Poder Data, August 14-16
Lula 44% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 37% (+2)
Ciro Gomes 6% (-1)
Simone Tebet 4% (0)

[Red Velvet]

Ipec polls in state capitals

São Paulo (São Paulo)
Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 24%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Simone Tebet 4%

Rio de Janeiro (Rio de Janeiro)
Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 32%, Ciro Gomes 6%, Simone Tebet 1%

Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais)
Lula 41%, Bolsonaro 32%, Ciro Gomes 3%, Simone Tebet 1%

Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul)
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 26%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Simone Tebet 3%

In the South and in the Southeast, the state capitals are polling much more to the left than the whole states

Recife (Pernambuco)
Lula 55%, Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 4%, Simone Tebet 3%

Not in Belo Horizonte - Minas Gerais though, where Lula has 42% in the state and 41% in the capital! It’s really only in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul that you see the vote of being pushed to the left because of the capital city in comparison to the interior of the state.

Which is 100% in line with this earlier post of mine analyzing the 2018 results. Will be fun to do the same for the 2022 to confirm it as a trend for these few red states as the only ones where the capital is leftier than the interior.

If Porto Velho also is more left-wing than Rondônia while in most of the rest of the country it’s the interior that is more pro-Lula, I will need to find answers why. Because it’s the state more strongly associated to deforestation, I am guessing maybe it’s a state with strong agro influence in the interior areas, while in the capital that isn’t a thing at all? I ready don’t know though.

The general rule outside these notable exceptions is for the capital cities to be more right-wing than their state interiors. It’s tied to economic factors and development I believe. The combo of Rio Grande do Sul - Santa Catarina -  São Paulo has well developed and wealthy towns in the state interiors. While in most of the country we associate the interior to more isolated towns and maybe poorer as well, or maybe lacking infrastructure is better word. And the electoral divide is economical, which makes the interior of these states much more right-wing leaning in comparison to the interior of other states, where probably more people are lower income and prefer Lula.

Rio de Janeiro is it’s own thing. There’s the development argument to some level as well, but not as strong as for those other three. But it’s a state that transformed a lot over the last years and we see a different type of electoral dynamic imo that is not economic only as we see literally everywhere else in the country. For some reason, social issues appear to be as relevant as economic ones (or even more??) for people making their minds, not to mention the strength of the right-wing “hard on crime” speech. And that leads to the more “progressive” city people pushing the vote to the left.

The only thing that bugs my expectations is that I thought Paraná and Rondônia would be switched on this map I made weeks ago. You would think Paraná would behave like the three states it’s more closely associated with (SP, SC, RS). Maybe there isn’t as much of that White European ancestry cultural association as strongly as there definitely exists in the interior areas of SC and RS, which push the vote to the right in those two states? While also not being the same giant industrial powerhouse like SP where the interior cities have a lot of economic influence in the national economy, even if they enjoy good development index numbers?

Thought it would be interesting to rank the 2018 presidential results from both the States and the capital of each State, to see if there is a trend there. For the 4 States in the south/southeast, I already know this will happen and this poll kinda only confirms it. But I want to see whatever happens in Rondônia…

STATES + DF (by % of valid votes on Bolsonaro in the runoff against Haddad):

1. Acre (North Region) - 77,22%
2. Santa Catarina (South Region) - 75,92%
-
3. Rondônia (North Region) - 72,18%
4. Roraima (North Region) - 71,55%
-
5. Distrito Federal (Midwest) - 69,99%
6. Paraná (South Region) - 68,43%
7. São Paulo (Southeast Region) - 67,97%
8. Rio de Janeiro (Southeast Region) - 67,95%
9. Mato Grosso (Midwest Region) - 66,42%
10. Goiás (Midwest Region) - 65,52%
11. Mato Grosso do Sul (Midwest Region) - 65,22%
-
12. Rio Grande do Sul (South Region) - 63,24%
13. Espírito Santo (Southeast Region) - 63,06%
-
14. Minas Gerais (Southeast Region) - 58,19%
-
15. Amazonas (North Region) - 50,27%
16. Amapá (North Region) - 50,21%
-
17. Tocantins (North Region) - 48,98%
18. Pará (North Region) - 45,19%
-
19. Alagoas (Northeast Region) - 40,08%
-
20. Rio Grande do Norte (Northeast Region) - 36,59%
21. Paraíba (Northeast Region) - 35,04%
-
22. Pernambuco (Northeast Region) - 33,50%
23. Sergipe (Northeast Region) - 32,46%
-
24. Ceará (Northeast Region) - 28,89%
25. Bahia (Northeast Region) - 27,31%
26. Maranhão (Northeast Region) - 26,74%
-
21. Piauí (Northeast Region) - 22,95%

CAPITALS (by % of valid votes on Bolsonaro in the runoff against Haddad):

1. Rio Branco (Acre) - 82,77%
-
2. Boa Vista (Roraima) - 78,61%
3. Curitiba (Paraná) - 76,54%
-
4. Goiânia (Goiás) - 74,20%
5. Campo Grande (Mato Grosso do Sul) - 71,27%
-
6. Distrito Federal (DF is not a state, therefore no capital) - 69,99%
7. Porto Velho (Rondônia) - 68,94%
8. Cuiabá (Mato Grosso) - 66,94%
9. Rio de Janeiro (Rio de Janeiro) - 66,35%
10. Manaus (Amazonas) - 65,72%
11. Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) - 65,59%
-
12. Palmas (Tocantins) - 64,88%
13. Florianópolis (Santa Catarina) - 64,86%
14. Vitória (Espírito Santo) - 63,19%
15. Maceió (Alagoas) - 61,63%
16. São Paulo (São Paulo) - 60,38%
-
17. Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul) - 56,85%
18. Macapá (Amapá) - 55,15%
-
19. Belém (Pará) - 54,93%
20. João Pessoa (Paraíba) - 54,80%
21. Natal (Rio Grande do Norte) - 52,98%
-
22. Recife (Pernambuco) - 47,50%
23. Aracajú (Sergipe) - 47,24%
-
24. Fortaleza (Ceará) - 44,39%
25. São Luís (Maranhão) - 42,22%
-
26. Teresina (Piauí) - 37,27%
-
27. Salvador (Bahia) - 31,41%

Bolsonaro performance in 2018 clearly shows he did better in the capitals than in overall states:
- WON 16 states, LOST 11
- WON 21 state capitals, LOST 6

Which shows that the interior vote helps Lula as a general rule overall. However, there are interesting exceptions for this. I wanted to map the States in which the capital pushed the vote to the left, which is an opposing trend to most of the country, as I’ve already shown.

These were the only 5 exceptions where the capital pushed the vote to the left:

1. Santa Catarina - + 11,06% (difference between capital vote and overall state vote)
2. São Paulo - + 7,59%
3. Rio Grande do Sul - + 6,39%
4. Rondônia - + 3,24%
5. Rio de Janeiro - + 1,60%



Which, since we’re not counting DF as a state that has a capital, is a 4/5 match with the top 5 states with highest HDI (excluding DF):

-. DF: 0,850
1. São Paulo: 0,826
2. Santa Catarina: 0,808
3. Rio de Janeiro: 0,796
4. Paraná: 0,792
5. Rio Grande do Sul: 0,787 (tied with Minas Gerais but it’s well above it in the Income + Education indexes, which is more telling than the Longevity one).

I think it’s interesting because it’s somewhat of a logic we see in foreign elections as well. In high developed countries, usually the capital and big cities tends to be “more progressive” than the rest of the country, with interior areas increasingly moving to the right. But that’s not what happens in elections of in development countries, where a lot of the interior vote is more leftist than the one in big cities because of inequality disparities favoring the left in less developed areas.

There are two opposite exceptions to this logic of “the higher development, more likely that the capital pushes the vote to the left” though. Rondônia and Paraná. I cannot explain why Porto Velho city was more left than Rondônia. Even if the 3% difference is small, it’s significant because everywhere around in the North/Northeast/Midwest, the vote usually shifted in capitals shifted a lot in favor of Bolsonaro. So it’s a weird exception in my view, that I’m curious about a theory that explains it

Meanwhile, Curitiba city being even more right-wing than Paraná comes off less surprising personally to me, even if it goes against the trend I proposed. But that’s mostly because you don’t think of strong distinctions between capital/interior in Paraná like you usually do with the other two Southern states of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul tbh. There’s also the fact that Curitiba was Lava Jato’s headquarter, I guess?

[Red Velvet]

I like making that Capital city vs state distinction because it makes me less embarrassed about being from Rio de Janeiro, also a bit more hopeful.

I mean, those margins for Lula in Rio de Janeiro City are better than in Belo Horizonte, which is the capital of a state that we expect the left to do much better than in our state.

I mean, Mayoral elections here are not a complete disaster at least. It’s the Governor elections that have been constantly sh**tty since forever. Just give us a 2nd capital position or something so we aren’t tied to the rest of the state and things get a loooooot better.

The state can even have the name Rio de Janeiro to them if they want. Just recreate Guanabara state for the city well-being sake, reversing the decadence trend going on since the 70s when the city was incorporated into the Rio de Janeiro state. I would only feel somewhat sorry for Niterói being left alone there in the middle of a harsh evangelical conservative pro-militia state, because they’re even better, or maybe I should mean not as bad, politically than the capital tbh (where the West Zone of the city is already dominated by militia control and has negative political influence on the election results, just like the surrounding cities in Baixada).

[Red Velvet]

I entered the year sure that I would vote for Ciro Gomes (PDT) for president and Marcelo Freixo (PSB) for Governor…

But ends up I will vote for Lula (PT) for president and Rodrigo Neves (PDT) for Governor LMAO

Lula and Freixo are on the same coalition btw, Ciro and Rodrigo Neves on the other. I guess this is what pragmatism means?

Freixo I liked because of his convictions but he has backtracked on important agenda for Rio, like drug legalization that would kill the traffic and make militias “protection” useless. He became no different than an average center-left politician like Rodrigo Neves at this point.

At least Neves has the successful experience as mayor (high approval levels in Niterói) and not the same rejection levels as Freixo that could help Castro in the runoff. Since it’s clear no one is bold enough to do what is necessary to end the ery that has become of Rio, I would rather have a competent same-old that can defeat the worst evil.

Meanwhile, on the national stage, I like Ciro’s development-oriented project better but it’s pointless to vote for him right now when it’s clear it’s a Bolsonaro vs Lula showdown and Ciro’s presence prevents an earlier victory against fascism, which would send a stronger message.

I guess this is what pragmatism means, not voting with the emotions and thinking what works better in practice, adapting to each different regional reality? Because I was excited about Ciro and Freixo but now that election campaign started that feels so distant and so “meh”. I’m starting to really want to vote for a Lula + Neves combo here.

For senator I simply refuse to vote for either Cabo Daciolo (PDT) or André Ceciliano (PT) even if they were the only candidates running. So it’s going to be Molon (PSB) by default, not that it makes much difference considering how they shamefully fragmented that race when it should be the one to NOT do that since there isn’t a runoff for it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Quaest, August 11-14
Lula 45% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 33% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 6% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)
According to Quaest, Lula was stable during 2022. Bolsonaro increased at the expense of the other candidates. Here we can see the trend https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1559844455942963200

Poder Data, August 14-16
Lula 44% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 37% (+2)
Ciro Gomes 6% (-1)
Simone Tebet 4% (0)

Is there a useful average of all polling we can follow?

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

I hope Gomes wins, but that won't happen