Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

I am just coming back from Lula's rally at downtown Rio de Janeiro. There were ~70K people
https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1545195538584408070

Besides Lula, other politicians who gave speeches were running mate Geraldo Alckmin, candidate to governor of Rio de Janeiro Marcelo Freixo, candidate to senator of Rio de Janeiro André Ceciliano and leaders of left-wing parties.

[buritobr]

A tragedy happened in the city of Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná

A municipal guard was celebrating his 50th birthday at his home. He is a Lula voter, and so, the decoration of his fest was related to PT.

A federal policeman who is a far-right extremist was walking, he saw the PT flags in that house, than he entered the house, shot the guard and tried to shoot other people there. He also shouted "here is Bolsonaro". The guard could still shoot his murder, but he died later.

[MaxQue]

A tragedy happened in the city of Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná

A municipal guard was celebrating his 50th birthday at his home. He is a Lula voter, and so, the decoration of his fest was related to PT.

A federal policeman who is a far-right extremist was walking, he saw the PT flags in that house, than he entered the house, shot the guard and tried to shoot other people there. He also shouted "here is Bolsonaro". The guard could still shoot his murder, but he died later.

Any hope Lula dissolves the fascistic federal police or, at the very least, fires the far-right elements?

[buritobr]

A tragedy happened in the city of Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná

A municipal guard was celebrating his 50th birthday at his home. He is a Lula voter, and so, the decoration of his fest was related to PT.

A federal policeman who is a far-right extremist was walking, he saw the PT flags in that house, than he entered the house, shot the guard and tried to shoot other people there. He also shouted "here is Bolsonaro". The guard could still shoot his murder, but he died later.

Any hope Lula dissolves the fascistic federal police or, at the very least, fires the far-right elements?

The president of the republic can appoint the directors of the federal organizations, but the permanent employees who were admitted in a public contest based on a written exam cannot be fired. This is good because there is a professional bureacracy. Otherwise, all the staff would change in every 4 years and the public organizations would work for the ruling party.

Unfortunately, most of the permanent staff in the federal police and in the army, navy and air force have far-right ideas.
But in the civil public service, most of the permanent employees are on the left of the average of the population. In Ibama, the organization in charge of the environment protection, the permanent staff was very useful to avoid the biggest damages caused by Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

Funk singer Anitta endorsed Lula. PT considered this endorsement very important because Anitta was never PT supporter never left-wing before. Her vote is only an anti-Bolsonaro voter. So, she is more willing to have dialogue with unusual PT voters. Older singers like Chico Buarque, Zelia Duncan, Beth Carvalho, Caetano Veloso, Gilberto Gil almost always support the left, most of their audience is left-wing. Their endorsement is important but it bring nothing new. It's like Eddie Vedder, Thom Yorke, Bruce Springsteen, Tom Morello and Roger Waters supporting the left, as they always do.

There is some relation between music genres and political views in Brazil. Although Anitta wasn't usually a leftist, most of the funk musicians and fans are left-wing. Rap, hip hop, samba are also more related to the left. Country and gospel are related to the right. Rock is split. Many rock singers were left-wing when they were young in the 1980s and nowadays they are very right-wing. But other rock singers are left-wing.

[buritobr]

Marcelo Freixo, the candidate for governor of Rio de Janeiro endorsed by Lula, posted a picture comparing Brazilian politics to Harry Potter universe.
Marcelo Freixo compared himself to Harry Potter, Lula to Dumbledore, Jair Bolsonaro to Voldemort and Claudio Castro, the candidate for governor of Rio de Janeiro endorsed by Bolsonaro, to Draco Malfoy.

We can see the picture here https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1549472174725021696

This kind of propaganda has the "young" people as target. People who read the first Harry Potter book when it was released are close to 35.

[Red Velvet]

Important support if Lula gets it:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndreJanonesAdv/status/1553012261467430914
Even if Janones is only 4th or 5th on the polls with only 2%, that would be a strategical support if he really drops out and endorses Lula.

On the tweet he says he was blocked by Bolsonaro; Ciro Gomes didn’t accept to meet with him and Simone Tebet completely ignored his existence, while the leader of the polls (Lula) publicly asked to meet with him.

He accepted the invitation and is willing to talk with Lula. Apparently, the demands are all stuff that were already on Lula’s government program, with the exception of the creation of one Secretariat that was already approved but was never implemented, so the conditions should be pretty good for Lula.

Also, the most recent DataFolha poll shows that most of the voters of Lula and Bolsonaro are extremely convicted of their vote (79% of each say they will not change until the election), while the Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet support is more soft, with only a little bit over 30% of their voters saying they will not change their vote at all.

I think the current Ciro soft voters will decide whether there’s a runoff or if Lula wins outright on the 1st round. I am more open to vote for Lula these days just to defeat Bolsonaro earlier and give him a bigger humiliation.

[buritobr]

Datafolha July 27-28 2022
1st round (comparing to Datafolha in June)
Lula 47% (0)
Jair Bolsonaro 29% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 8% (0)
Simone Tebet 2% (+1)
André Janones 1% (-1)
Pablo Marçal 1% (0)
Vera Lúcia 1% (0)
Blank/nulified/none 6% (-1)
Undecided 3% (-1)

Runoff
Lula 55% (-2)
Jair Bolsonaro 35% (+1)

Rating of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/ very good 28% (+2)
Regular 26% (0)
Bad/vert bad 45% (-2)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That 45% bad/very bad figure is quite, um, bad, for Bolsonaro.

[Mike88]

Don't understand why Brazilian pollesters don't remove the blank/invalid vote from their projections. Without them, Lula is at 49-52% in the first round, and would be elected.

However, and although the number of undecided voters is very low compared with previous elections as both main candidates are deeply polarizing, I would like to wait for polling during mid September to see if the current trend continues. I believe things will not change a lot till then, but, who knows.

[Red Velvet]

New DataFolha poll also asked some questions to Brazilians:

- Regarding attacks against the Supreme Court by the President

56% say the attacks and threats should be taken seriously by the country institutions
36% say the Bolsonaro declarations will not have consequences
8% Don’t Know

- Regarding about whether Bolsonaro is going to perform a coup

56% think Bolsonaro won’t try to perform a coup
37% think Bolsonaro will try to perform a coup
7% Don’t Know

- Regarding how much they trust what the President says

52% Never trusts
29% Sometimes trusts
18% Always trusts
1% Don’t know

- Regarding whether there is corruption on the Bolsonaro government

73% say there is corruption
19% say there isn’t
8% don’t know

- Regarding which topic concerns the electorate the most

Health: 20%
Economy: 13%
Unemployment: 10%
Hunger & Misery: 10%
Inflation: 9%
Education: 9%
Urban Violence: 6%
Corruption: 3%

[Red Velvet]

Datafolha July 27-28 2022
1st round (comparing to Datafolha in June)
Lula 47% (0)
Jair Bolsonaro 29% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 8% (0)
Simone Tebet 2% (+1)
André Janones 1% (-1)
Pablo Marçal 1% (0)
Vera Lúcia 1% (0)
Blank/nulified/none 6% (-1)
Undecided 3% (-1)

Runoff
Lula 55% (-2)
Jair Bolsonaro 35% (+1)

Rating of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/ very good 28% (+2)
Regular 26% (0)
Bad/vert bad 45% (-2)

Same poll but with results separated per demographic group

GENDER

- Male
Lula 48%
Bolsonaro 32%
Ciro Gomes 8%
Others Combined 3%
Blank + Null + Undecided 7%

- Female
Lula 46%
Bolsonaro 27%
Ciro Gomes 8%
Others Combined 5%
Blank + Null + Undecided 12%

INCOME

- 2 Minimum wages or less
Lula 54%
Bolsonaro 23%
Ciro Gomes 8%
Others Combined 5%
Blank + Null + Undecided 9%

- Between 2 and 5 Minimum wages
Lula 40%
Bolsonaro 34%
Ciro Gomes 10%
Others Combined 4%
Blank + Null + Undecided 10%

- Between 5 and 10 Minimum wages
Lula 34%
Bolsonaro 44%
Ciro Gomes 8%
Others Combined 10%
Blank + Null + Undecided 5%

- More than 10 Minimum wages
Lula 33%
Bolsonaro 41%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Others Combined 12%
Blank + Null + Undecided 6%

RACE

- White
Lula 41%
Bolsonaro 33%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Others Combined 8%
Blank + Null + Undecided 10%

- Pardo (Brown)
Lula 45%
Bolsonaro 30%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Others Combined 3%
Blank + Null + Undecided 10%

- Black
Lula 58%
Bolsonaro 20%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Others Combined 6%
Blank + Null + Undecided 8%

RELIGION

- Catholics
Lula 52%
Bolsonaro 25%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Others Combined 4%
Blank + Null + Undecided 8%

- Evangelical Protestants
Lula 33%
Bolsonaro 43%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Others Combined 5%
Blank + Null + Undecided 11%

- Spiritists/Kardecists
Lula 51%
Bolsonaro 26%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Others Combined 2%
Blank + Null + Undecided 13%

BRAZILIAN REGION (I found only the Lula and Bolsonaro percentages)

- Southeast
Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 28%

- Northeast
Lula 59%
Bolsonaro 24%

- South
Lula 41%
Bolsonaro 34%

- Midwest + North
Lula 42%
Bolsonaro 37%

[buritobr]

That 45% bad/very bad figure is quite, um, bad, for Bolsonaro.

Unfortunately, this figure is not so bad for Bolsonaro. Usually, almost all voters who consider an incumbent good/very good vote for him/her in the 1st round and many voters who consider an incumbent regular vote for him/her in the runoff.
The possibility of reelection was introduced by the Constitution Amendment 16 from 1997. Since this date, all the incumbent presidents who ran for reelection were reelected (Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula da Silva, Dilma Rousseff). Most of the incumbent governors and mayors who ran for reelection were reelected. The rule of a 4 year term and possibility of 1 reelection is like a 8 year term with a recall in the middle.
Probably, Bolsonaro will loose. But it doesn't mean that it will be easy for Lula.

[buritobr]

Don't understand why Brazilian pollesters don't remove the blank/invalid vote from their projections. Without them, Lula is at 49-52% in the first round, and would be elected.

However, and although the number of undecided voters is very low compared with previous elections as both main candidates are deeply polarizing, I would like to wait for polling during mid September to see if the current trend continues. I believe things will not change a lot till then, but, who knows.

I prefer not removing the blank/invalid vote. This information is important.
I think the calculation of valid vote is important only in the poll of Saturday evening in the eve of the vote.

[Red Velvet]

Datafolha also points that 54% of Brazilians went through a situation where they felt embarrassed or threatened because of their political positions.

And that share was bigger between:
- Homosexuals and Bisexuals (65%)
- PT party sympathizers (63%)
- Higher Education segments (62%)
- People who disapprove the Bolsonaro government (62%)
- Afro-Brazilians (60%)
- Lula voters (58%)

This is particularly interesting to me because it’s the Bolsonaro radical base complaining online about their freedom of expression being repressed, using a rhetoric that seems too copy+paste from the US right regardless of context (BR right was never much creative tbh, neither paid attention to their own country context).

Yet the actual reality shows it’s the left that feels currently more repressed to express their political positions. The news burito posted about a Bolsonarista invading a PT themed party to shoot and kill the guy who was making 50 years of age is big symbolic representative of this. It’s also Bolsonaro supporters throwing sh**t bombs in the middle of PT political gatherings, so this poll results shouldn’t be any surprise.

Datafolha shows that 49% of Brazilian voters stopped talking about politics with their friends and family in order to avoid discussions. 15% of all voters say they already received verbal threats and 7% say they received physical threats. Of those:

Verbal Threats:
- 19% between Lula voters
- 12% between Bolsonaro voters

Physical Threats:
- 9% between Lula voters
- 5% between Bolsonaro voters

Stopped talking about politics with friends and family to avoid discussions:
- 54% between Lula voters
- 40% between Bolsonaro voters

[Red Velvet]

Don't understand why Brazilian pollesters don't remove the blank/invalid vote from their projections. Without them, Lula is at 49-52% in the first round, and would be elected.

However, and although the number of undecided voters is very low compared with previous elections as both main candidates are deeply polarizing, I would like to wait for polling during mid September to see if the current trend continues. I believe things will not change a lot till then, but, who knows.

I prefer not removing the blank/invalid vote. This information is important.
I think the calculation of valid vote is important only in the poll of Saturday evening in the eve of the vote.

I like to calculate the valid vote as curiosity to know whether we would have a runoff or not if the election was today, but you’re right that this is useless because this can easily change until the actual election.

TV media usually does this as well, they share all vote distributions up until the election and only with the final poll on the eve of the election they show the valid votes more front and center. Same thing with the Exit Polls on the Election Day.

[buritobr]

It's confirmed now: Senator from Mato Grosso do Sul Simone Tebet and her running mate senator from São Paulo Mara Gabrili will be the center-right ticket. This ticket still has 2%. The probability to win is close to zero, in a election which is polarized between Lula and Bolsonaro.
This is a 2 woman ticket, while Lula and Bolsonaro have 2 man tickets.
During the 2010s, many left-wing tickets for president, governor and mayor tried to avoid 2 white men tickets. But in 2022, the left-wing candidates considered that non left-wing running mates were necessary, and the center-right politicians they found to be their running mates were white men too. Lula's running mate is former São Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin. In the state of Rio de Janeiro, the running mate of the left-wing governor candidate Marcelo Freixo is César Maia, a former mayor of the city of Rio de Janeiro.

[Red Velvet]

Impossible to be sympathetic towards PT when you’re from Rio. Now they are breaking the alliance with Freixo for Governor because Molon (same party as Freixo) is running for senate and they feel entitled to have their candidate as the alliance option in exchange of their support of Freixo.

In every other state, candidates bow down to PT all the freaking time when they know they have the weaker chances. In Rio, Freixo + Molon are clearly much better options with a potential André Ceciliano doesn’t have.

I’m 100% not voting on that party for any position other than president (and even for that, I’m still kinda split), because the options for the party in Rio are specially awful, although consistent with their track record.

[Red Velvet]

Reason why PSOL is so strong in Rio in comparison to the rest of the country is because there’s a vacuum of moral leadership left open by PT in this state.

No wonder why PDT tends to do better in Rio as well, besides the Brizola history.

Everywhere else, this kind of situation apparently doesn’t exist.

[DL]

That 45% bad/very bad figure is quite, um, bad, for Bolsonaro.

Unfortunately, this figure is not so bad for Bolsonaro. Usually, almost all voters who consider an incumbent good/very good vote for him/her in the 1st round and many voters who consider an incumbent regular vote for him/her in the runoff.
The possibility of reelection was introduced by the Constitution Amendment 16 from 1997. Since this date, all the incumbent presidents who ran for reelection were reelected (Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula da Silva, Dilma Rousseff). Most of the incumbent governors and mayors who ran for reelection were reelected. The rule of a 4 year term and possibility of 1 reelection is like a 8 year term with a recall in the middle.
Probably, Bolsonaro will loose. But it doesn't mean that it will be easy for Lula.

Yes but the percentage who say Bolsanaro is "good/very good" is just 28% - there is another big 26% chunk who say he is "regular" and I'm sure something is lost in translation but I suspect "regular" means mediocre or passable...not exactly a ringing endorsement

[Mike88]

"Regular" in Portuguese language means basically average. It's not good, but it's also not bad, just what you would expect something to be. But, yeah, it's not an endorsement.

[Orange is back]

Bolsonaro’s old party Brazil Union’s nominee Luciano Bivar has been replaced with Soraya Thronicke.

She seems to be standard right wing. Does she have a chance of making the runoff?

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro’s old party Brazil Union’s nominee Luciano Bivar has been replaced with Soraya Thronicke.

She seems to be standard right wing. Does she have a chance of making the runoff?

Lol absolutely not.

The only doubt surrounding this election is whether Lula can win outright on 1st round or if Bolsonaro can force a runoff vote.

There’s lots of big government spending recently in order to attract votes from lower income groups and Northeast region groups. So analysts expect Bozo to gain ground with these segments, which are standard Lula voters.

[Red Velvet]

That 45% bad/very bad figure is quite, um, bad, for Bolsonaro.

Unfortunately, this figure is not so bad for Bolsonaro. Usually, almost all voters who consider an incumbent good/very good vote for him/her in the 1st round and many voters who consider an incumbent regular vote for him/her in the runoff.
The possibility of reelection was introduced by the Constitution Amendment 16 from 1997. Since this date, all the incumbent presidents who ran for reelection were reelected (Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula da Silva, Dilma Rousseff). Most of the incumbent governors and mayors who ran for reelection were reelected. The rule of a 4 year term and possibility of 1 reelection is like a 8 year term with a recall in the middle.
Probably, Bolsonaro will loose. But it doesn't mean that it will be easy for Lula.

Yes but the percentage who say Bolsanaro is "good/very good" is just 28% - there is another big 26% chunk who say he is "regular" and I'm sure something is lost in translation but I suspect "regular" means mediocre or passable...not exactly a ringing endorsement

Regular means neither approval or disapproval. It’s something in-between that shows neither passion for OR hate against the government. Like, from my understanding:

Good/Great -> mostly likes the current government
Regular -> has either mixed feelings or is whatever about the government
Bad/Awful -> mostly dislikes the current government

Usually, in more non-polarized times, “regular” would have way more respondents, being over in % in comparison to the positive and negative evaluations. Nowadays it’s the opposite because of polarization and they can have the least % (although it’s a dispute with the positive evaluations for this government lol)

And yet I remember some newspapers summing up “regular” with “bad/awful” during Dilma’s 2nd term and pushing that this was all disapproval lmao. Depending of the narrative someone wants to push, regular can be both positive or negative thing.

[buritobr]

Don't understand why Brazilian pollesters don't remove the blank/invalid vote from their projections. Without them, Lula is at 49-52% in the first round, and would be elected.

However, and although the number of undecided voters is very low compared with previous elections as both main candidates are deeply polarizing, I would like to wait for polling during mid September to see if the current trend continues. I believe things will not change a lot till then, but, who knows.

I prefer not removing the blank/invalid vote. This information is important.
I think the calculation of valid vote is important only in the poll of Saturday evening in the eve of the vote.

I like to calculate the valid vote as curiosity to know whether we would have a runoff or not if the election was today, but you’re right that this is useless because this can easily change until the actual election.

TV media usually does this as well, they share all vote distributions up until the election and only with the final poll on the eve of the election they show the valid votes more front and center. Same thing with the Exit Polls on the Election Day.

I don't know if there will be exit polls this year. These polls are becoming less important, since electronic vote proceeding is very fast. Datafolha doesn't conduct exit polls since long time ago. Ibope used to have the exit polls, but this pollster was replaced by Ipec, I don't know if Ipec will conduct exit polls.
Proceeding in 2022 will probably be faster. Voting precints at Brasília time zone will close at 5pm, precints at Mato Grosso time zone will close at 4pm, precints at Acre time zone will close at 3pm. So, all the proceeding will start at 5pm at Brasília time zone.