VA Early Voting #s

[Non Swing Voter]

9th Cong. turnout continues to seriously lag in terms of overall voted in person/voted by mail/ballot requests.  It's sitting at just 25,000.  For context.  The 8th congressional district is closing in on 49,000.  People can argue that this doesn't matter all they want because people will vote on Election Day, but the reality is this is not going to have Presidential or even midterm level turnout so they better get in gear soon because Dems are banking a lot of votes and the GOP can only win if they solidly outperform Dem base areas.

[Skill and Chance]

9th Cong. turnout continues to seriously lag in terms of overall voted in person/voted by mail/ballot requests.  It's sitting at just 25,000.  For context.  The 8th congressional district is closing in on 49,000.  People can argue that this doesn't matter all they want because people will vote on Election Day, but the reality is this is not going to have Presidential or even midterm level turnout so they better get in gear soon because Dems are banking a lot of votes and the GOP can only win if they solidly outperform Dem base areas.

Maybe, but the VRA district is the 2nd lowest after VA-09.  Given the election day propensity in downscale R areas, that is arguably more concerning. 

The big question is VA-07 and VA-01.  Whether or not they (and to a lesser extent, VA-10) have reverted to pre-Trump voting patterns should be what decides the race. 

[Spectator]

9th Cong. turnout continues to seriously lag in terms of overall voted in person/voted by mail/ballot requests.  It's sitting at just 25,000.  For context.  The 8th congressional district is closing in on 49,000.  People can argue that this doesn't matter all they want because people will vote on Election Day, but the reality is this is not going to have Presidential or even midterm level turnout so they better get in gear soon because Dems are banking a lot of votes and the GOP can only win if they solidly outperform Dem base areas.

Maybe, but the VRA district is the 2nd lowest after VA-09.  Given the election day propensity in downscale R areas, that is arguably more concerning. 

The big question is VA-07 and VA-01.  Whether or not they (and to a lesser extent, VA-10) have reverted to pre-Trump voting patterns should be what decides the race. 

VA-01 and VA-07 will decide whether this resembles the Virginia of 2016 or the Virginia of 2020. They won’t decide who “wins” this race.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1445889529718587395

I am standing with my 7-9% win prediction for McAuliffe, this is not going to be close. The MAGAs sit out the off year non Trump elections while college educated whites vote more consistently.

Hopefully. That's going to the news that Democrats need in order to have any sort of prayer for overcoming historical patterns in 2022. California indicated that may be the case, but it was also a very special circumstance in one of the country's most Democratic states.

[Non Swing Voter]

9th Cong. turnout continues to seriously lag in terms of overall voted in person/voted by mail/ballot requests.  It's sitting at just 25,000.  For context.  The 8th congressional district is closing in on 49,000.  People can argue that this doesn't matter all they want because people will vote on Election Day, but the reality is this is not going to have Presidential or even midterm level turnout so they better get in gear soon because Dems are banking a lot of votes and the GOP can only win if they solidly outperform Dem base areas.

Maybe, but the VRA district is the 2nd lowest after VA-09.  Given the election day propensity in downscale R areas, that is arguably more concerning. 

The big question is VA-07 and VA-01.  Whether or not they (and to a lesser extent, VA-10) have reverted to pre-Trump voting patterns should be what decides the race. 

VA-01 and VA-07 will decide whether this resembles the Virginia of 2016 or the Virginia of 2020. They won’t decide who “wins” this race.

This.  Dems certainly don't need Trump era voting patterns in those two districts to win.  As long as NOVA turnout is typical off year level (i.e., at or above the state avg.) then Dems will win.  Virginia isn't a 50/50 state and thus Dems don't need to win the swingier parts of it.  They just need to maintain their base and base turnout. 

[Skill and Chance]

9th Cong. turnout continues to seriously lag in terms of overall voted in person/voted by mail/ballot requests.  It's sitting at just 25,000.  For context.  The 8th congressional district is closing in on 49,000.  People can argue that this doesn't matter all they want because people will vote on Election Day, but the reality is this is not going to have Presidential or even midterm level turnout so they better get in gear soon because Dems are banking a lot of votes and the GOP can only win if they solidly outperform Dem base areas.

Maybe, but the VRA district is the 2nd lowest after VA-09.  Given the election day propensity in downscale R areas, that is arguably more concerning. 

The big question is VA-07 and VA-01.  Whether or not they (and to a lesser extent, VA-10) have reverted to pre-Trump voting patterns should be what decides the race. 

VA-01 and VA-07 will decide whether this resembles the Virginia of 2016 or the Virginia of 2020. They won’t decide who “wins” this race.

This.  Dems certainly don't need Trump era voting patterns in those two districts to win.  As long as NOVA turnout is typical off year level (i.e., at or above the state avg.) then Dems will win.  Virginia isn't a 50/50 state and thus Dems don't need to win the swingier parts of it.  They just need to maintain their base and base turnout. 

Yes, but a 2013 style (Cuccinelli+1) or even 2008 style (Obama+3) result in VA-10 would certainly put the statewide result in doubt given how the rest of the state has moved since then. 

[Spectator]

9th Cong. turnout continues to seriously lag in terms of overall voted in person/voted by mail/ballot requests.  It's sitting at just 25,000.  For context.  The 8th congressional district is closing in on 49,000.  People can argue that this doesn't matter all they want because people will vote on Election Day, but the reality is this is not going to have Presidential or even midterm level turnout so they better get in gear soon because Dems are banking a lot of votes and the GOP can only win if they solidly outperform Dem base areas.

Maybe, but the VRA district is the 2nd lowest after VA-09.  Given the election day propensity in downscale R areas, that is arguably more concerning. 

The big question is VA-07 and VA-01.  Whether or not they (and to a lesser extent, VA-10) have reverted to pre-Trump voting patterns should be what decides the race. 

VA-01 and VA-07 will decide whether this resembles the Virginia of 2016 or the Virginia of 2020. They won’t decide who “wins” this race.

This.  Dems certainly don't need Trump era voting patterns in those two districts to win.  As long as NOVA turnout is typical off year level (i.e., at or above the state avg.) then Dems will win.  Virginia isn't a 50/50 state and thus Dems don't need to win the swingier parts of it.  They just need to maintain their base and base turnout. 

Yes, but a 2008/12 style near tie in VA-10 would certainly put the statewide result in doubt given how the rest of the state has moved since then. 

You said VA-01 in your original post and that’s what I went off of.

I have no doubt in my mind that McAuliffe will easily win VA-10

[slothdem]

The early voting numbers pretty much foreclose on a Youngkin win. Typical Virginia electorate but probably more educated than the presidential. Looking like even if he gets knockout e-day turnout from R voters he'll be held to a close loss. He'll need to persuade a signficant number of Biden voters to lose only by 5-6. Which he might do! But he isn't persuading 20% of Biden voters to switch their votes, obviously.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My prediction: Virginia will be reelected as Talk Elections modadmin in a landslide.

[Non Swing Voter]

9th Cong. turnout continues to seriously lag in terms of overall voted in person/voted by mail/ballot requests.  It's sitting at just 25,000.  For context.  The 8th congressional district is closing in on 49,000.  People can argue that this doesn't matter all they want because people will vote on Election Day, but the reality is this is not going to have Presidential or even midterm level turnout so they better get in gear soon because Dems are banking a lot of votes and the GOP can only win if they solidly outperform Dem base areas.

Maybe, but the VRA district is the 2nd lowest after VA-09.  Given the election day propensity in downscale R areas, that is arguably more concerning. 

The big question is VA-07 and VA-01.  Whether or not they (and to a lesser extent, VA-10) have reverted to pre-Trump voting patterns should be what decides the race. 

VA-01 and VA-07 will decide whether this resembles the Virginia of 2016 or the Virginia of 2020. They won’t decide who “wins” this race.

This.  Dems certainly don't need Trump era voting patterns in those two districts to win.  As long as NOVA turnout is typical off year level (i.e., at or above the state avg.) then Dems will win.  Virginia isn't a 50/50 state and thus Dems don't need to win the swingier parts of it.  They just need to maintain their base and base turnout. 

Yes, but a 2013 style (Cuccinelli+1) or even 2008 style (Obama+3) result in VA-10 would certainly put the statewide result in doubt given how the rest of the state has moved since then. 

Theoretically, but there is literally no chance of that happened.  VA-10 (which is my congressional district btw) is MUCH different than it was in 2013 or 2008.  Loudoun county is demographically totally different and the portions of Fairfax that are in the 10th are much more liberal than even 5-10 years ago. 

[Cyrusman]

In California recall election democrats had big name people like Biden, Harris, Sanders, Warren, Obama, AOC all campaigning for Newsom. Why isn’t that going on in Virginia?

[wbrocks67]

In California recall election democrats had big name people like Biden, Harris, Sanders, Warren, Obama, AOC all campaigning for Newsom. Why isn’t that going on in Virginia?

Obama never did? (besides an ad, which might be coming for McAuliffe I assume), but most of that action didn't really happen until the closing weeks of the campaign.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/6:
Early voting in person: 135,076
Mail ballots returned: 87,209
Total: 222,285

As of 10/9

Early in person: 171,995
Mail ballots returned: 105,496
Total = 277,491

[Progressive Pessimist]

In California recall election democrats had big name people like Biden, Harris, Sanders, Warren, Obama, AOC all campaigning for Newsom. Why isn’t that going on in Virginia?

Obama never did? (besides an ad, which might be coming for McAuliffe I assume), but most of that action didn't really happen until the closing weeks of the campaign.

Yeah, I'm fairly certain that the party's big stars will wait to make their presence in the race known until a week or two before election day where it might mean more.

[LimoLiberal]

I am 1/11130 of the returned mail-in ballots in VA-08. Good news for Terry, as long as it doesn't rain on election day.

[Non Swing Voter]

I am 1/11130 of the returned mail-in ballots in VA-08. Good news for Terry, as long as it doesn't rain on election day.

Given how lazy many Trump voters are + the fact that Terry is banking more ballots early, I think rain on Election Day would only help Terry...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

UPDATE:

288,403 (108,946 by mail)

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/6:
Early voting in person: 135,076
Mail ballots returned: 87,209
Total: 222,285

As of 10/9

Early in person: 171,995
Mail ballots returned: 105,496
Total = 277,491

As of 10/12

Early in person: 198,843
Mail ballots returned: 118,986
Total = 317,829

[Non Swing Voter]

In about a week these numbers will pick up more briskly when more early voting sites open up in big counties like Fairfax.

[wbrocks67]

Total turnout in 2017 was 2.6M so we are already at 12% turnout

[THG]

Turnout is paling in comparison to 2020:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

[Non Swing Voter]

^ Please don't take the bait people.  It's been explained why turnout is where it's at.  Lets not let this thread be overrun with misleading posts.

[Non Swing Voter]

Right now some over and under performing counties (votes per 1,000 registered voters):

State Avg: 53.5

Henrico: 63.4

Albemarle: 66.5

Chesterfield: 62.5

Buchanan: 19.8

Lee: 17.5

Basically, NOVA being dragged down by few early voting sites at this point... will tick up tremendously when they open all sites in Fairfax. 

SW VA has shockingly low turnout in many (but not all of the counties). 

The turnout appears highest in big suburban counties OUTSIDE of NOVA.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/12

Early in person: 198,843
Mail ballots returned: 118,986
Total = 317,829

As of 10/13
Early in person: 216,272
Mail ballots returned: 128,144
Total = 344,416

[Virginiá]

Turnout is paling in comparison to 2020:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

It's an odd year election following the highest turnout presidential election in generations lol

While we don't yet know what the final turnout #s will be, even a high-turnout VA gubernatorial election (eg: 2017 @ 47.6%) would still "pale" in comparison to 2020 (74.6%)