VA Early Voting #s

[wbrocks67]

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

As of 10/30
Early in person votes: 853,310
Mail ballots returned: 286,193
Total: 1,139,503

VPAP seems to be a bit out of date though, its saying only 9.7K in Fairfax for yesterday, but we know from their tweets it was 14K+

[Non Swing Voter]

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

As of 10/30
Early in person votes: 853,310
Mail ballots returned: 286,193
Total: 1,139,503

VPAP seems to be a bit out of date though, its saying only 9.7K in Fairfax for yesterday, but we know from their tweets it was 14K+

Look closely.  The 9.7k number is for Oct. 29.

[Non Swing Voter]

I will make a general point about firms like Targetsmart and others that have projected early vote leads for either party based off inferred voter demographics since 2016 which is when I first started looking at their analysis.

They consistently overestimate how well democrats are doing in the early vote, in 2016 many of these firms suggested Clinton would win states she lost based off her early vote performance, 2020 was the same, in PA people posting on twitter who worked for these firms suggested Biden would win PA by maybe 5-6% just based off his early vote numbers because the election day vote was going to be not that large, he won by 1.2%.

Whether they overestimate democrats because of a flaw in their methodology or because all the people who work for them are democrats so they always twist the data to suit their partisan perspective is hard to say.

They correctly predicted the make up of the early vote but the Election Day vote was large.  I don't know why they would make a prediction about the day of vote at all.  They generally just interpret the early vote.  The PA early vote was indeed extremely democratic. 

[KaiserDave]

How many mail ballots are still in transport?

[Non Swing Voter]

How many mail ballots are still in transport?

There are 108,000 unaccounted for mail in ballots.

[Non Swing Voter]

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

As of 10/30
Early in person votes: 853,310
Mail ballots returned: 286,193
Total: 1,139,503

VPAP seems to be a bit out of date though, its saying only 9.7K in Fairfax for yesterday, but we know from their tweets it was 14K+

They just updated the Fairfax numbers btw...  now over 163K total.  Statewide total 1,142,155 at the moment.

[Person Man]

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

As of 10/30
Early in person votes: 853,310
Mail ballots returned: 286,193
Total: 1,139,503

VPAP seems to be a bit out of date though, its saying only 9.7K in Fairfax for yesterday, but we know from their tweets it was 14K+

They just updated the Fairfax numbers btw...  now over 163K total.  Statewide total 1,142,155 at the moment.

Is there a chance for more tomorrow? If so, that probably gets us to 1.2-1.25 range.

[CookieDamage]

While I believe reading too much into EV numbers can be a bad prognosticator for the gen election, I still think it's a very good sign when one party banks up lots of votes. I think that absolutely made the difference in PA and MI.

[wbrocks67]

Right now, the counties with the most early voting per 1,000 registered voters are Falls Church (Biden +64) and James City (Biden +5)

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1454883987286020101

[Progressive]

Right now, the counties with the most early voting per 1,000 registered voters are Falls Church (Biden +64) and James City (Biden +5)

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1454883987286020101

Fair to say that James City could be a bellwether for the state?

[Politics Fan]

Right now, the counties with the most early voting per 1,000 registered voters are Falls Church (Biden +64) and James City (Biden +5)

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1454883987286020101

Fair to say that James City could be a bellwether for the state?

Seeing it voted for Gillespie probably not.

[It’s so Joever]

Right now, the counties with the most early voting per 1,000 registered voters are Falls Church (Biden +64) and James City (Biden +5)

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1454883987286020101

Fair to say that James City could be a bellwether for the state?

It will vote to the right of the state.

[Non Swing Voter]

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

As of 10/30
Early in person votes: 853,310
Mail ballots returned: 286,193
Total: 1,139,503

VPAP seems to be a bit out of date though, its saying only 9.7K in Fairfax for yesterday, but we know from their tweets it was 14K+

They just updated the Fairfax numbers btw...  now over 163K total.  Statewide total 1,142,155 at the moment.

Is there a chance for more tomorrow? If so, that probably gets us to 1.2-1.25 range.

Yes.  Usually these numbers get adjusted (i.e. moved up) a bit.  Plus more ballots will trickle in.  Not sure it will get to quite 1.2 though.  The good news (if you want T-Mac to win) is that Dems clearly ended early voting with a very strong numerical lead and many more will still turn out on Election Day.  It's not like 2020 when Dems essentially spent their entire load on early voting.

[KaiserDave]

So is TMac’s lead around 250k?

[Non Swing Voter]

So is TMac’s lead around 250k?

That's a fair assumption.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1454479713305513986

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1454479713305513986

White liberals/college educated whites/UMC whites (however we want to define them) were always going to be a higher proportion of the VA electorate than their share of the population.  This is always the case and especially so in off-year Gubernatorial elections.  The good thing for Dems is there are many many more of them waiting to vote on Election Day so I expect they will be well represented within the final overall electorate.

[Person Man]

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

As of 10/30
Early in person votes: 853,310
Mail ballots returned: 286,193
Total: 1,139,503

VPAP seems to be a bit out of date though, its saying only 9.7K in Fairfax for yesterday, but we know from their tweets it was 14K+

They just updated the Fairfax numbers btw...  now over 163K total.  Statewide total 1,142,155 at the moment.

Is there a chance for more tomorrow? If so, that probably gets us to 1.2-1.25 range.

Yes.  Usually these numbers get adjusted (i.e. moved up) a bit.  Plus more ballots will trickle in.  Not sure it will get to quite 1.2 though.  The good news (if you want T-Mac to win) is that Dems clearly ended early voting with a very strong numerical lead and many more will still turn out on Election Day.  It's not like 2020 when Dems essentially spent their entire load on early voting.

That’s what she said.

[Non Swing Voter]

As of yesterday.  Early vote total 1,149,601.  A bit over 100,000 mail in ballots not returned.  Perhaps those will trickle in and get this closer to 1.2m.

[wbrocks67]

Is VPAP gonna update tomorrow with two days worth of mail-in ballot returns?

[Non Swing Voter]

Is VPAP gonna update tomorrow with two days worth of mail-in ballot returns?

Just go to VA registrars site.

[wbrocks67]

Is VPAP gonna update tomorrow with two days worth of mail-in ballot returns?

Just go to VA registrars site.

Only 7k mail in ballots were processed today?

Ngl, just a tad bit worried that there's still a ton of mail in ballots sitting in the mail right now that should've been processed by now.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is VPAP gonna update tomorrow with two days worth of mail-in ballot returns?

Just go to VA registrars site.

Only 7k mail in ballots were processed today?

Ngl, just a tad bit worried that there's still a ton of mail in ballots sitting in the mail right now that should've been processed by now.

There are 100,000 mail in ballots unaccounted for.  Roughly 50% are in NOVA.

The Dems and USPS entered into an agreement that the USPS will have to sweep post offices, and do other measures and continually report to the DNC.

[Adam Griffin]

283k out of 383k returned already is a higher percentage (74%) than in 2017 (70%), so it's not necessarily a bad rate of return overall. Of course, the raw total outstanding is much larger than 4 years ago, and percentage-wise not even close to 2020 (90%).

[Adam Griffin]

Ironically I haven't been paying attention to the data the past week because I've been staying in Roanoke!

Thoughts about Roanoke?

Any info from a birds eye view???

Finally back home, so I guess I'll share my anecdotal thoughts.

Of course it is more or less Appalachian - I could make a lot of compare/contrasts to Appalachian Georgia but I guess that's not too relevant. Many less affluent parts of it look and feel like the hollers further west and north.

First: I was staying in basically the only relatively black segment of the city. No signs anywhere. Plenty of Youngkin signs all over the suburban and even within the urban area. McAuliffe signs were basically either exclusively downtown or an occasional one here and there in some obviously rich white yard. Signs aren't indicative of votes, but they can be indicative of enthusiasm and/or how much work local orgs are doing outreach-wise to put signs in people's hands.

Odd observation: Roanoke/Salem seems very political. Tons of various bumperstickers and tags, various issue-based yard signs (non-campaign related), heaps of anti-abortion billboards, etc. I can't tell you how many businesses I saw that had not just McAuliffe or Youngkin signs in their windows/on display, but more detailed messages and the like. I distinctly remember one book store with "Terry McAuliffe doesn't have the right to tell our kids what they learn" on their sign.

I come from an obviously backwards and very heavily polarized environment, but seeing this extent of it was kind of amazing. Especially all the businesses "taking sides" in one way or another. Other than the occasional hardened partisan or business owner, it's not really something you see here.