VA Early Voting #s

[Non Swing Voter]

FINAL NUMBERS:

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1454569188601876480

That puts it at about 62% of total 2017 turnout.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1454568201778520064

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1454568201778520064

This along with the Falls Church numbers gives me hope for Tuesday that the polls will be wrong.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1454568201778520064

This along with the Falls Church numbers gives me hope for Tuesday that the polls will be wrong.

Yes.  These are core democratic voters.  I am not at all worried about this election in any way.

[NYDem]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1454568201778520064

This along with the Falls Church numbers gives me hope for Tuesday that the polls will be wrong.

Yes.  These are core democratic voters.  I am not at all worried about this election in any way.

I have a bad feeling that this is going to age horribly come Tuesday night.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1454568201778520064

This along with the Falls Church numbers gives me hope for Tuesday that the polls will be wrong.

Yes.  These are core democratic voters.  I am not at all worried about this election in any way.

I have a bad feeling that this is going to age horribly come Tuesday night.

I am not at all stressed about this election.  Virginia will do Virginia.  Most of the people who think Youngkin will win are just regurgitating the polls and don't know Virginia politics.  It's like every VA election has taught this board absolutely nothing. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That Fox poll was trash, most of the VBM was banked fir Terry when he was leading already

[KaiserDave]

What’s the estimated partisan breakdown? Where’s the link to that site

[NOVA Green]

What’s the estimated partisan breakdown? Where’s the link to that site

Well VA doesn't have partisan registration, so we don't really know the breakdown % by party.

I'm assuming the TargetSmart model is what you're looking for in terms of estimated breakdown by party?

Not sure if they actually have a website, but believe they are quite active on Twitter.

[Non Swing Voter]

What’s the estimated partisan breakdown? Where’s the link to that site

The last I saw, the overall estimate is that of the 1 million+ who have voted, they voted 2-1 for Biden last time.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454590468776468487

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454590468776468487

Are these the final numbers for today?

Will we get an update on Monday and Tuesday?

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454590468776468487

I believe that is more final day in person early voters than in 2020 in Fairfax county. I think the Fox poll scared away some of the complacency.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454590468776468487

Are these the final numbers for today?

Will we get an update on Monday and Tuesday?

yes, no.  but does not include mail ballots which we will get an update on.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454590468776468487

I believe that is more final day in person early voters than in 2020 in Fairfax county. I think the Fox poll scared away some of the complacency.

that and early voting was compressed in FFX for satellite offices so today was always going to be huge.

[Adam Griffin]

Based on TS data, if you assume all Ds vote D, all Rs vote R and indies go 60-40 Youngkin, you have almost exactly a 60-40 McAuliffe EV total thus far.

[Non Swing Voter]

Based on TS data, if you assume all Ds vote D, all Rs vote R and indies go 60-40 Youngkin, you have almost exactly a 60-40 McAuliffe EV total thus far.

What is the 60-40 split for Indies based on?  Just Youngkin generally rising in the polls?

[Adam Griffin]

Based on TS data, if you assume all Ds vote D, all Rs vote R and indies go 60-40 Youngkin, you have almost exactly a 60-40 McAuliffe EV total thus far.

What is the 60-40 split for Indies based on?  Just Youngkin generally rising in the polls?

It just seems to be the "consensus" at this point. Not paying much attention but there was at least one poll pointing toward that. It's also how the TS numbers more or less have to break down for those who've been saying EV is +20 Mc all along. Obv a few Ds will vote R and vice-versa, so the actual indy split in this scenario would be a handful of points closer than my above example.

[Adam Griffin]

Ironically I haven't been paying attention to the data the past week because I've been staying in Roanoke!

[jamestroll]

Based on TS data, if you assume all Ds vote D, all Rs vote R and indies go 60-40 Youngkin, you have almost exactly a 60-40 McAuliffe EV total thus far.

What is the 60-40 split for Indies based on?  Just Youngkin generally rising in the polls?

It just seems to be the "consensus" at this point. Not paying much attention but there was at least one poll pointing toward that. It's also how the TS numbers more or less have to break down for those who've been saying EV is +20 Mc all along. Obv a few Ds will vote R and vice-versa, so the actual indy split in this scenario would be a handful of points closer than my above example.

Do you my prediction is Trumpkin/Ayala/Herring is viable?

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1454410626286096386?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Ironically I haven't been paying attention to the data the past week because I've been staying in Roanoke!

Thoughts about Roanoke?

Wasserman has the the City & County for a Youngkin win at:

City benchmarked at  42% Youngkin

County benchmarked at 66% Youngkin

Roanoke County was 60-38 Trump.

Roanoke City was 62-36 Biden

Any info from a birds eye view???

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1454410626286096386?s=20

I think it will be higher than his predictions with mail ins.  

Also, it's important to note that Fairfax goes from 3 --> 16 --> 243 voting precincts.

Obviously many many people are waiting til Election Day because there will be way more locations, particularly in huge jurisdictions like Fairfax, Loudoun, Richmond.  So the numbers right now are impressive.

And there will be partisan democrats, myself included, who will vote on election day.

EDIT: you should really not read that twitter account, the "analysis" is way off.  He's comparing normal off year drop off to 2020 and saying this is bad news for Dems.  Without even acknowledging that 2020 was a major pandemic and (a) early voting was designed specifically for that reason, (b) early voting in the "big" counties like Fairfax had more early days for satellite sites.  Either he's not knowledgeable or being disingenuous. 

[Annatar]

I will make a general point about firms like Targetsmart and others that have projected early vote leads for either party based off inferred voter demographics since 2016 which is when I first started looking at their analysis.

They consistently overestimate how well democrats are doing in the early vote, in 2016 many of these firms suggested Clinton would win states she lost based off her early vote performance, 2020 was the same, in PA people posting on twitter who worked for these firms suggested Biden would win PA by maybe 5-6% just based off his early vote numbers because the election day vote was going to be not that large, he won by 1.2%.

Whether they overestimate democrats because of a flaw in their methodology or because all the people who work for them are democrats so they always twist the data to suit their partisan perspective is hard to say.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Here is an interesting thread about what early voting tell us. Long story short - not much in terms of the final outcome.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454468319403257869