VA Early Voting #s

[Skill and Chance]

As of 10/18
Early in person: 284,511
Mail ballots returned: 160,179
Total = 444,690

As of 10/19
Early in person: 309,741
Mail ballots returned: 171,233
Total = 480,974

Definitely picking up. Fairfax opens 13 more satellite sites on Thursday, so that should help top.

Interesting.  The 3 Dem NOVA CDs have huge chunk of outstanding mail ballots vs. everywhere else. 

Could just be mail is taking forever - Larry Sabato posted that he didn't even get his mail ballot until weeks after he requested it. Seems to be a particular issue in the NOVA area.

This will be interesting.  In Virginia, it looks like they can be handed in on election day if there isn't enough time to mail it back, and that voters who never receive them can vote provisionally in person on election day and it will be counted after they verify the absentee was never received.  Expect to see a surge of drop-offs day of and perhaps the weekend before if this remains a serious issue.

[SnowLabrador]

Biden needs to fire DeJoy. It's almost as if he doesn't care about the Democratic Party winning.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/18
Early in person: 284,511
Mail ballots returned: 160,179
Total = 444,690

As of 10/19
Early in person: 309,741
Mail ballots returned: 171,233
Total = 480,974

Definitely picking up. Fairfax opens 13 more satellite sites on Thursday, so that should help top.

Interesting.  The 3 Dem NOVA CDs have huge chunk of outstanding mail ballots vs. everywhere else. 

Could just be mail is taking forever - Larry Sabato posted that he didn't even get his mail ballot until weeks after he requested it. Seems to be a particular issue in the NOVA area.

This will be interesting.  In Virginia, it looks like they can be handed in on election day if there isn't enough time to mail it back, and that voters who never receive them can vote provisionally in person on election day and it will be counted after they verify the absentee was never received.  Expect to see a surge of drop-offs day of and perhaps the weekend before if this remains a serious issue.

And I'm sure this will just help the delays at Fairfax reporting even moreso than usual, so I expect a long night 11/2 lol.

[Non Swing Voter]

Most Fairfax voters with outstanding mail ballots will hand deliver them to satellite sites starting tomorrow.  You will see a giant uptick in NOVA (not just Fairfax) on Friday.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1450920513270947843

[Matty]

it’s obvious you have strong feelings on this race.

You don’t even live in Virginia. Glenn youngkin is a milquetoast non entity.

Why are you so against the idea that the race may be trending in youbgkin’s direction?

[wbrocks67]

it’s obvious you have strong feelings on this race.

You don’t even live in Virginia. Glenn youngkin is a milquetoast non entity.

Why are you so against the idea that the race may be trending in youbgkin’s direction?

IDK who you're talking to but if you're talking to me, I literally just posted at tweet from VPAP about data.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1450920513270947843

Here's the other one:

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1450921263728316420

[wbrocks67]

This doesn't seem too surprising, as some early voters from 2020 may be reverting back to election day voters, plus the fact that NOVA early vote centers were open over a week before they were this year.

They have another tweet for mail in ballots that shows as of right now its virtually the same split for Ds to Rs as in 2020.

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1450923499866968080

[Non Swing Voter]

Yes, NOVA numbers were inflated last year because they opened satellite offices earlier and because of the pandemic.  The covid case rates are extremely low right now in NOVA so I expect a more robust Election Day turnout.  But I also expect early voting to spike soon as well.  There is going to be a big discrepancy between the three NOVA districts and the SWVA/downstate districts in terms of pre-election turnout.  Dems will have banked a very significant lead.  So to even keep it close, Youngkin will need extremely massive rural turnout on Election Day.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/19
Early in person: 309,741
Mail ballots returned: 171,233
Total = 480,974

Definitely picking up. Fairfax opens 13 more satellite sites on Thursday, so that should help top.

As of 10/20
Early in person votes: 335,704
Mail ballots returned: 179,370
Total = 515,074

[Non Swing Voter]

Additional early voting sites opened in Fairfax today.  I will be driving by one of them when I grab lunch.  I am curious to see how long the line is.  It's early in a weekday so probably not too long. 

[ElectionsGuy]

Using the answer to Question 16 of the Monmouth poll and the number of early votes cast by October 18th, if accurate, would lead to roughly 3.3 million votes.

[NOVA Green]

Paging Adam Griffin...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=711

Wondering if you want to weigh in?

[Adam Griffin]

Paging Adam Griffin...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=711

Wondering if you want to weigh in?

With regard to turnout?

If so, a 3.3m+ vote electorate would not at all be surprising.

If VA followed GA's turnout pattern between the presidential election and the runoff, then we'd see 90% of the raw turnout of the presidential. That'd be 4m votes in Virginia.

That sounds a bit excessive given this isn't for control of the Senate, the entire country isn't trying to mobilize voters there and it's not immediately following a high-profile nationwide election. I could easily see 3.5m votes in this contest, though.


Including a projected percentage (70%) of outstanding mail ballots being returned, 638,000 votes have been banked thus far (24% of 2017 turnout).

[wbrocks67]

IDK, 3.3 million seems high. There were only 2.6M cast in 2017, so not sure it's gonna grab another 700K to top that.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/20
Early in person votes: 335,704
Mail ballots returned: 179,370
Total = 515,074

As of 10/21
Early in person votes: 368,553
Mail ballots returned: 190,659
Total = 559,212

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1451496149047824386

[Skill and Chance]

I'm confused.  That doesn't look like a terribly impressive impact statewide?

[wbrocks67]

I'm confused.  That doesn't look like a terribly impressive impact statewide?

I mean, it was one Thursday weekday, so it's not like it was gonna go from 30k to 100k in a day. It went from 30K increase the previous day to 45K yesterday, so that's pretty substantial.

Interested however to see the weekend numbers with 16 sites now open in Fairfax, including Sunday.

[It’s so Joever]

Additional early voting sites opened in Fairfax today.  I will be driving by one of them when I grab lunch.  I am curious to see how long the line is.  It's early in a weekday so probably not too long. 

Keep us updated on anecdotal evidence!

[Person Man]

Additional early voting sites opened in Fairfax today.  I will be driving by one of them when I grab lunch.  I am curious to see how long the line is.  It's early in a weekday so probably not too long. 

Keep us updated on anecdotal evidence!

I'm curious about what you saw.

[It’s so Joever]

Additional early voting sites opened in Fairfax today.  I will be driving by one of them when I grab lunch.  I am curious to see how long the line is.  It's early in a weekday so probably not too long. 

Keep us updated on anecdotal evidence!

I'm curious about what you saw.

Oh my gosh thanks for reminding me.
Yeah I wasn’t in Virginia long, but I saw two Youngkin signs in New Hanover from the train and I saw two McAuliffe signs in Henrico.
Given it took more time to find the McAuliffe signs, it does appear Republicans have an enthusiasm edge. However, the rich white Henrico suburbs (where I was) have not shown evidence of reverting. I probably will take a few trips to NoVa on the metro right before the election.

[ElectionsGuy]

Just did another rough calculation.

If the 3.3 million turnout that I rough estimated before is roughly correct, given the ratio of early/election day vote was 39/61 in the answer, we'd expect about 1.3 million of those votes to be early, and 2 million to be election day.

But let's say it's a little lower turnout, like 3.1. Then they need roughly 1.2 million early votes. Again, this is all predicated on that answer to the Monmouth poll which for all we know could be inaccurate, I just think this is an interesting exercise. However, if they don't get up to at least 1 million, they better hope the poll overestimated the percentage of people voting on election day. The poll shows roughly double the number of people are going to vote early in the next week and a half as have so far. So we should see early votes coming in at a more rapid clip especially next week Monday-Friday.

[Hollywood]

Yesterday, I was listening to a recording my friend sent me of a Democrat PAC conference call.  They are making a big push this weekend and talked about the new polling stations that are opening up.  They have activists from around the country calling and texting black voters, and I believe they mentioned people going to black churches to pressure people.  They're entirely focused on black voters, because their data suggests that the margins are appreciably worse with white Democrat
 and lean D Independents. They actually kept referring to a list of pressure/pain point issues that was sent out to members of the group.   The main county they've been hitting as of now is Henrico, and the VPAP data has show a rise over the past week.  So all this lends credence to the D posters that are hopeful of a greater rate of early turnout in the blue counties this weekend. 

Based on their early data, there are many counties where less than 10% of black voters have voted. Some counties with less than 5%.  The woman leading the conversation said people at voting stations are noticing more Republicans early voting, so the graph that was posted above seems correct.  They also lamented their performance in Virginia Beach. 

[Badger]

This doesn't seem too surprising, as some early voters from 2020 may be reverting back to election day voters, plus the fact that NOVA early vote centers were open over a week before they were this year.

They have another tweet for mail in ballots that shows as of right now its virtually the same split for Ds to Rs as in 2020.

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1450923499866968080

Not good.