2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Хahar 🤔]

Why is the Bloc so uncompetitive in Montreal proper? I know a lot of the ridings there are English speaking, but it seems odd they cant win more than a single riding there.

The Bloc has never done especially well in Montreal because a large portion of the island will not vote for a pro-independence party under any circumstances, but Gilles Duceppe represented a Montreal riding and under him the Bloc did much better on the island than it does now. This is because the Bloc under Duceppe emphasized that it was a social democratic party. Nowadays the Bloc is focused on winning the votes of supporters of François Legault, meaning that it focuses on cultural grievances. Naturally this has little appeal in the city. In Duceppe's old riding, Laurier—Sainte-Marie, the Bloc finished in a distant third place with 20%; NDP candidate Nimâ Machouf didn't win, but she's clearly captured a substantial portion of the old Bloc vote.

The NDP seems to have succeeded in a limited sense in Montreal; after all the churn of the last decade, its position in Montreal is at least as strong as in Toronto. Alexandre Boulerice's seat is safe enough and there's obvious and readily identifiable room to grow, which the NDP certainly didn't have in Quebec twenty years ago. Aside from the special case of Berthier—Maskinongé, the NDP vote across the province has held up in the sort of places you'd expect; in Sherbrooke, for instance, despite running a new candidate against the Liberal incumbent and a Bloc star candidate, the NDP managed 14% and third place. That's not exactly a good number, but it's indicative of the sort of people that are voting NDP in Quebec at this point.

[Geoffrey Howe]

The CPC is lucky as hell that the NDP and Liberals don’t resolve there differences and merge because … it’s clear the country is majority left of center. And if the PPC takes off at all then the CPC is REALLY screwed

You are making two foolish assumptions: first, that socialists will start voting Liberal; secondly, that Liberals will not flock to the party of property. There are good reasons why the LPC and NDP remain separate.

[PSOL]

The CPC is lucky as hell that the NDP and Liberals don’t resolve there differences and merge because … it’s clear the country is majority left of center. And if the PPC takes off at all then the CPC is REALLY screwed

You are making two foolish assumptions: first, that socialists will start voting Liberal; secondly, that Liberals will not flock to the party of property. There are good reasons why the LPC and NDP remain separate.

The NDP is to the right of Labour right since 2019 with the removal of the common ownership clause.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The CPC is lucky as hell that the NDP and Liberals don’t resolve there differences and merge because … it’s clear the country is majority left of center. And if the PPC takes off at all then the CPC is REALLY screwed

You are making two foolish assumptions: first, that socialists will start voting Liberal; secondly, that Liberals will not flock to the party of property. There are good reasons why the LPC and NDP remain separate.

The NDP is to the right of Labour right since 2019 with the removal of the common ownership clause.

Didn’t Labour get rid of its own common ownership clause under Blair in the 90s?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Didn’t Labour get rid of its own common ownership clause under Blair in the 90s?

Yes, though his wasn't the first attempt: as far back as 1959 Hugh Gaitskell saw sense.

[ottermax]

Any ideas as to why the NDP continues to underperform in urban centers like downtown Toronto, Vancouver, and even Halifax?

Also incredibly disappointing that the NDP cannot make any headway into the 905 areas like Brampton where Singh made inroads as an Ontario MPP. Is the globalization and polarization of politics making it too difficult for voters to consider options besides the Liberals and Conservatives?

Finally, does anyone know where there's a list of ridings which switched parties? It seems like there wasn't much change, but I'm curious to know about the swings and shifts in each province as there does seem to have been substantial churn across the regions.

[Hash]

Why is the Bloc so uncompetitive in Montreal proper? I know a lot of the ridings there are English speaking, but it seems odd they cant win more than a single riding there.

The Bloc has never done especially well in Montreal because a large portion of the island will not vote for a pro-independence party under any circumstances, but Gilles Duceppe represented a Montreal riding and under him the Bloc did much better on the island than it does now. This is because the Bloc under Duceppe emphasized that it was a social democratic party. Nowadays the Bloc is focused on winning the votes of supporters of François Legault, meaning that it focuses on cultural grievances. Naturally this has little appeal in the city. In Duceppe's old riding, Laurier—Sainte-Marie, the Bloc finished in a distant third place with 20%; NDP candidate Nimâ Machouf didn't win, but she's clearly captured a substantial portion of the old Bloc vote.

The NDP seems to have succeeded in a limited sense in Montreal; after all the churn of the last decade, its position in Montreal is at least as strong as in Toronto. Alexandre Boulerice's seat is safe enough and there's obvious and readily identifiable room to grow, which the NDP certainly didn't have in Quebec twenty years ago. Aside from the special case of Berthier—Maskinongé, the NDP vote across the province has held up in the sort of places you'd expect; in Sherbrooke, for instance, despite running a new candidate against the Liberal incumbent and a Bloc star candidate, the NDP managed 14% and third place. That's not exactly a good number, but it's indicative of the sort of people that are voting NDP in Quebec at this point.

On top of this excellent post, I'll just add that demographic trends aren't helping the Bloc very much on Montreal Island: over a decade between 2006 and 2016, the Francophone population declined from 48.8% to 46.4%, and over two decades between 1996 and 2016, it declined from 52.3% to 46.4%. The visible minority has increased from 18.7% in 1996, to 25% in 2006 and to 32.9% in the last census in 2016. The current population is undoubtedly even more diverse and less Francophone. Similar demographic changes also help explain why Laval is also becoming increasingly solidly Liberal, whereas in the past it would have elected more Bloc MPs. Considering that very few non-Francophones vote for the Bloc, it's obvious that these trends aren't helping.

The only Bloc riding now, and since 2015, is La Pointe-de-l'Île, which is a largely suburban seat and the most heavily Francophone (nearly 90%) on the island, and covering much of the area of the only two CAQ-held seats in Montreal (Bourget and Pointe-aux-Trembles). It has more in common demographically and politically with the off-island suburbs than it has with any other part of Montreal.

[StateBoiler]

Impressive in a way: an election result that is genuinely embarrassing for every single party leader involved. For the major national parties, Trudeau has demonstrated extremely poor judgment and an inability to safely read the electorate and that's not good. O'Toole has failed to make any progress whatsoever and for a party specifically designed to contest for power, that's really, really not good. I don't think there's an argument for him being given a second chance other than 'tradition'. As for Jagmeet Singh, I can't think of a single rational or logical reason for the NDP to keep him. The party's performances in its target seats were strikingly poor across the country, the loss of several open seats must count as actively alarming, and there's no sign of new voters being brought to the table anywhere.

honestly yeah. This is a result that's just going to leave everyone wanting

Gut hot take: all 3 major national parties go into the next election with new leadership

[lilTommy]

Any ideas as to why the NDP continues to underperform in urban centers like downtown Toronto, Vancouver, and even Halifax?

Also incredibly disappointing that the NDP cannot make any headway into the 905 areas like Brampton where Singh made inroads as an Ontario MPP. Is the globalization and polarization of politics making it too difficult for voters to consider options besides the Liberals and Conservatives?

Finally, does anyone know where there's a list of ridings which switched parties? It seems like there wasn't much change, but I'm curious to know about the swings and shifts in each province as there does seem to have been substantial churn across the regions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_of_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election - so far wiki is showing each riding with the incumbent, the winner in 2021 and the blanks are the too close to call. Not the best way to view the list, but its a list.

[PSOL]

How did Nikki Ashton do?

[lilTommy]

How did Nikki Ashton do?

Ashton won 43% of the vote, down from 50% in 2019.
LPC vote was flat, 25% vs 23% in 2019
CPC vote was up more, 24% vs 20% in 2019

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I don’t know if Angus would be the best bet. I think Timmins is getting tired of him. He’s no Gilles Bisson. To be honest I think he should step down next election so the NDP can run a fresh face.

His result in his seat was poor but it's noteworthy that the major swing seems to have been to the PPC. Is that a particularly unvaxxed area?

The NDP seems to have succeeded in a limited sense in Montreal; after all the churn of the last decade, its position in Montreal is at least as strong as in Toronto. Alexandre Boulerice's seat is safe enough and there's obvious and readily identifiable room to grow, which the NDP certainly didn't have in Quebec twenty years ago. Aside from the special case of Berthier—Maskinongé, the NDP vote across the province has held up in the sort of places you'd expect; in Sherbrooke, for instance, despite running a new candidate against the Liberal incumbent and a Bloc star candidate, the NDP managed 14% and third place. That's not exactly a good number, but it's indicative of the sort of people that are voting NDP in Quebec at this point.

Yes, the NDP didn't do well this time but it's certainly conceivable that they'll win Laurier-Sainte Marie, Outremont and/or Hochelaga if the Liberals become unpopular in Quebec, which was not the case at all pre-Layton. They do much, much worse in immigrant-heavy and nationalist working-class areas, but while that's very bad for a social democratic party, it's at least a different class of problem.

I'd go even further and say that at this point the main difference between Quebec and Ontario is the lack of any other areas of strength - in Ontario, the NDP has (to an extent, as this election shows) Northern Ontario and some (post)industrial areas to fall back on if they don't win places like Toronto-Danforth or Parkdale-High Park, in Quebec the equivalent areas currently mostly vote Bloc and CAQ and the NDP was a non-factor there - even if they voted NDP in 2015. Whether they can ever rebuild any support there under another leader, or if their winning those areas was purely an artifact of the Orange Crush artificially sustained by Mulcair, is one of the biggest questions facing the NDP in Quebec going forward.

I'd also add that Sherbrooke is probably not even a terrible result in this context - the NDP had a paper candidate and, given that this is Canada, it's the sort of percentage that could theoretically be built on, especially seeing as QS holds the equivalent provincial seat.

[Holmes]

I don’t know if Angus would be the best bet. I think Timmins is getting tired of him. He’s no Gilles Bisson. To be honest I think he should step down next election so the NDP can run a fresh face.

His result in his seat was poor but it's noteworthy that the major swing seems to have been to the PPC. Is that a particularly unvaxxed area?

Not particularly. 73% of people have one dose and 82% of people have two doses.

https://www.timminstoday.com/local-news/12-to-17-year-olds-have-lowest-vaccination-rates-in-the-region-4336796

I also don't think it was the candidate either. He was just some random guy who moved up north from southern Ontatio a few years prior and he was a truck driver.

To be honest, sadly I think PPC/right-wing rhetoric plays up well in the area. I hate to say it. It's a predominantly white area but before I moved away, Timmins was starting to get some South Asian people moving in. I did hear some unpleasant things being said by people about it. That's the kind of place that is unfortunately.

edit- forgot to say this because it happened after I moved away. There's also an opioid crisis now and it's causing a lot of crime and break ins. Angus is the incumbent MP and Liberals are in government and so I'm guessing people probably think neither have helped them with this situation, so they went CPC or PPC.

[MaxQue]

Here is the page listing progress of the postal count:
https://www.elections.ca/enr/help/help_sta_e.htm

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Here is the page listing progress of the postal count:
https://www.elections.ca/enr/help/help_sta_e.htm

I hadn't realised that basically none of those had been counted, maybe a few more close ridings could change hands after all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, it's possible that a few CBC calls might end up being wrong in the end.

[King of Kensington]

Big swing to the Liberals among Chinese voters.  Did O'Toole's "get tough on China" talk hurt?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Big swing to the Liberals among Chinese voters.  Did O'Toole's "get tough on China" talk hurt?

What does the Canadian public even think about China?

[Frodo]

What do you all think of this rather troubling take in which Maxime Bernier succeeded in not only preventing Erin O'Toole from winning the election with a Conservative minority government, but also made abundantly clear to all that no future aspiring Conservative leader can hope to compete without his followers' acquiescence?

Canada’s far-right fringe is getting stronger

From what I was able to gather, the People's Party is essentially the Canadian version of the MAGAfied Republican Party.  

[King of Kensington]

Yes, looking at the results by riding the PPC vote was very "Trumpy" (rural and rust belt).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Didn't post on the big day, but allow me to chime in with this one comment:

What a colossal waste of time.

[Pericles]

Didn't post on the big day, but allow me to chime in with this one comment:

What a colossal waste of time.

And money-what's the exact amount?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

My serious take on this election is that most people didn't really see a reason to change their vote. Some areas went more Liberal (urban Alberta, Chinese-Canadian areas), while Atlantic Canada trended Tory, but on balance it was a wash because most seats didn't change hands, uncharacteristically so for a Canadian election.

I and many others suspected that the Liberals would have a less efficient vote this time around, and the opposite was the case. They solidified their hold where it mattered. My view of the 905 is that it's a region that prefers stability over change, until they get really tired of the status quo and switch dramatically (LPC 2015, OPC 2018). With the uncertainty of COVID still looming large, they went for stability. O'Toole and Singh were never really able to drive home their pitch, and failed to expand beyond the base. I have little to say about the Bloc because Quebec is an enigma, but it seems like the Bloc vote is continuing to CAQ-ify, as in getting stronger in rural and regional Quebec and weaker in urban centres.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Didn't post on the big day, but allow me to chime in with this one comment:

What a colossal waste of time.

And money-what's the exact amount?

$610 million. I know that by heart and will know it until my heart stops beating because CPC ads really drove that home, to no avail it seems

[Pericles]

Didn't post on the big day, but allow me to chime in with this one comment:

What a colossal waste of time.

And money-what's the exact amount?

$610 million. I know that by heart and will know it until my heart stops beating because CPC ads really drove that home, to no avail it seems

Jeesh, that's a small tragedy for the country.