2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Logical]

With 1 million mail ballots to be counted things can and will change a bit. PPC supporters are the most reluctant to vote by mail so expect their numbers to go down a little. NDP could grab Davenport and Vancouver Granville on the back of the mail vote. We shall see.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Atlantic provinces:

CPC - 30.94%
LPC - 44.09%
NDP - 17.38%
PPC - 4.38%
GPC - 3.21%


Maritime provinces:

CPC - 30.44%
LPC - 43.43%
NDP - 17.41%
PPC - 4.80%
GPC - 3.93%

[BigSerg]

I wonder if it would be a scandal if the Conservative party won the popular vote with over a million votes in the next election and still lost in seats.

[toaster]

Is there a breakdown of the best and worst ridings (so far) by party? Especially interested in PPC for their best ridings.

PPC:

Portage-Lisgar (MB) - 20%
Beauce (QC) - 18% (Maxime Bernier)
Provencher (MB) - 16%

They didn't do as well (~10%) in rural AB.

Any others that were high?  I think they got 14% in Timmins-James Bay, which is surprising although it is more a faux-left riding (Union guys not progressives).

[lilTommy]

Anyone have the figures of how many mail-in ballots there are?

What is the likelihood of these mail-in's flipping seats?

[DC Al Fine]

Is there a breakdown of the best and worst ridings (so far) by party? Especially interested in PPC for their best ridings.

PPC:

Portage-Lisgar (MB) - 20%
Beauce (QC) - 18% (Maxime Bernier)
Provencher (MB) - 16%

They didn't do as well (~10%) in rural AB.

Any others that were high?  I think they got 14% in Timmins-James Bay, which is surprising although it is more a faux-left riding (Union guys not progressives).

Don't let Al catch you saying that

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Singh should of course go, after two disastrous elections in a row now, but there is nothing NDP voters love more than losing while feeling superior about themselves, so they will of course keep him.

This is right. On CBC the NDP woman they had was talking about how proud everyone was of Jagmeet; it doesn't matter whether they won or not, what was important was that they made such a great stand by making the turban man their leader. It's the attitude that comes from being in permanent opposition. Nobody got into the NDP because they wanted to win, so nobody can even imagine what winning would be like. It's not surprising that Rachel Notley has tended to keep her distance from the federal NDP, because she is a winner and they are losers.

Speaking as the person who first sounded a "could the NDP underperform 2019?" note, let me say this:  "disastrous" is an overstatement.  If you want "disastrous" in the bigger scheme of things, look to Audrey McLaughlin in 1993, or to the Mulcair tailspin over the course of the 2015 campaign.  And yes, this result highlighted a certain all-surface-no-guts element to the Jagmeet campaign--and in a weird way, I think PPC energy-hogging plowed a big mound of dirt on top of Jagmeetian "positivity" over the course of the campaign.  Otherwise, "bittersweet" might be the more fitting term, not too much different from the Douglas/Lewis leadership era--or else you might as well suggest that the federal NDP's very existence has been one continuous disaster (2011 excepted) for six decades running, and more if you include the CCF.

Painting this in blunt-testosterone winners vs losers terms betrays too much conditioning within hyper-binary systems a la the US or Australia.  I prefer my electoral politics gynaecological over phallic, thank you.

Still feeling this way? I’m waking up to the NDP being at 25, which is frankly pitiful given all the potential upside they had this year. I wasn’t thrilled when I was going to bed with them at 29, but now I’m actually upset.

[Logical]

Anyone have the figures of how many mail-in ballots there are?

What is the likelihood of these mail-in's flipping seats?

https://www.elections.ca/content2.aspx?section=vote&dir=app/vbm&document=index&lang=e
1025k mail ballots recieved. Could change the results in nearly every riding not called yet.

[Hash]

PPC getting pretty good results in NB with the Tories holding on to their 2019 vote share.

Worth noting that the best Tory result seems to be Souris-Moose Mountain in SK - 76%.

From what I can tell, though I might be wrong, PPC topped off in Portage-Lisgar around 20%.  (That is, higher than Mad Max.)  And I *think* it might have been Chatham-Kent-Leamington in Ontario...

Yes, and excepting Beauce I think the adjacent Provencher is second. Which reflects the polls suggesting that the PPC would do better in MB/SK than Alberta. Any thoughts why?

Besides what adma mentioned (Mennonite communities), those areas have amongst the lowest COVID-19 vaccination rates in Canada. According to Manitoba vaccination data, 12+ vaccine uptake (first dose) was 24% in Stanley, 41% in Winkler, 49% in Hanover, 52% in Altona/Rhineland, 55% in Roland/Thompson - although it's a decently high 69% in Morden and 64% in Steinbach.

[The Free North]

Why is the Bloc so uncompetitive in Montreal proper? I know a lot of the ridings there are English speaking, but it seems odd they cant win more than a single riding there.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1440315632893845507?s=19

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1440161338332835842?s=19

This should be of interest to some of you (but hopefully no more than just interest).

[KaiserDave]

Very much hoping the CPC right wing doesn't dump O'Toole. O'Toolism must live on.

[MaxQue]

Why is the Bloc so uncompetitive in Montreal proper? I know a lot of the ridings there are English speaking, but it seems odd they cant win more than a single riding there.

Their base is old white Francophones.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why is the Bloc so uncompetitive in Montreal proper? I know a lot of the ridings there are English speaking, but it seems odd they cant win more than a single riding there.

Bloc hates the city and the city hates it right back.

[Oryxslayer]

So here's my takes:

-Trudeau failed. Not because he didn't get his majority, but because I don't think he ever could have got his majority. The two best points were right after the writ dropped and perhaps a week off in the future. However the Liberals were already on the decline during that first week cause of Afghanistan and the Conservative platform, and saying that the polls were moving in the Lib direction at the end of the campaign is ignoring the largely-stagnant weekly polls for the volatile daily trackers - some who were way off again. Therefore Trudeau risked it all to spin a wheel that had plenty of "Tory Victory" outcomes and very few "Lib majority" ones. That's a bad gamble.

-O'Toole is in a poor place personally, but I think he has left the party in potentially a better place. Firstly, right now the PPC should not got 100% to the Conservatives if removed from circulation - we got plenty of anti-vaxxers in there from across the spectrum, including former Atlantic greens. Only a bit of their vote is disgruntled Conservatives, especially on the plains. Unless we assume the likely scenario is all anti-vaxxers migrate to Con without the PPC (a potential USA-incentivized hypothetical) then the Tories only lost a few seats to vote splits.

Instead of prairie over-domination like last election, the Conservatives now I think have a path to a minority government without winning more than a handful of seats in the 905 - something valuable if we believe in #Trends. However, to actually get a sizable win the Tories still need the suburbs, and after this election I wonder what can work, if anything, to make these seats flip blue. A total incumbent government failure like mass corruption or economic collapse are the easy ones, but that is beyond their control. This is the legacy of all recent Tory's piled on one another, and it is one they have to either confront or find a way around.

-The NDP failed and Singh should be held responsible. They right now are on +1 for the night, which still could change depending on Toronto mail votes, but that is absolutely horrible. The party sold the farm to run a national whistle-stop campaign and got nothing. He's the most popular leader on paper! The NDP won't even win the two scandal seats! In fact all three present gains came more from other parties failures than Orange success. Unless downtown Toronto flips in the mail ballots then all of Singh's online activism won't even reap dividends among the youth. The NDP are not going back to 2011 but they need a proverbial "killer" who isn't content with less than 10% of the chamber.

Greens need to get all their s**t in order. PPC needs to abandon the national campaign for a western-only one (modern reform?) if it wants to grow, win seats, and perhaps push the Tories around. Bloc is the only one doing "fine" but this campaign showed there are plenty of intense non-separatist faultlines between the province and Ottawa.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Impressive in a way: an election result that is genuinely embarrassing for every single party leader involved. For the major national parties, Trudeau has demonstrated extremely poor judgment and an inability to safely read the electorate and that's not good. O'Toole has failed to make any progress whatsoever and for a party specifically designed to contest for power, that's really, really not good. I don't think there's an argument for him being given a second chance other than 'tradition'. As for Jagmeet Singh, I can't think of a single rational or logical reason for the NDP to keep him. The party's performances in its target seats were strikingly poor across the country, the loss of several open seats must count as actively alarming, and there's no sign of new voters being brought to the table anywhere.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Impressive in a way: an election result that is genuinely embarrassing for every single party leader involved. For the major national parties, Trudeau has demonstrated extremely poor judgment and an inability to safely read the electorate and that's not good. O'Toole has failed to make any progress whatsoever and for a party specifically designed to contest for power, that's really, really not good. I don't think there's an argument for him being given a second chance other than 'tradition'. As for Jagmeet Singh, I can't think of a single rational or logical reason for the NDP to keep him. The party's performances in its target seats were strikingly poor across the country, the loss of several open seats must count as actively alarming, and there's no sign of new voters being brought to the table anywhere.

honestly yeah. This is a result that's just going to leave everyone wanting

[MillennialModerate]

The CPC is lucky as hell that the NDP and Liberals don’t resolve there differences and merge because … it’s clear the country is majority left of center. And if the PPC takes off at all then the CPC is REALLY screwed

[Oryxslayer]

The CPC is lucky as hell that the NDP and Liberals don’t resolve there differences and merge because … it’s clear the country is majority left of center. And if the PPC takes off at all then the CPC is REALLY screwed

Look at this guy, he thinks a NDP/Lib merger wouldn't lose voters to the right and result in a 50-50 equilibrium, as what has happened in the past and kinda happened provincially through Duverger's.

As an American, our impression of Trudeau is that he leads copy of the Democrats. But because he is not beholden to the young activists in any form there is space in the Liberal tent for voters who are would vote Tory in a 50/50 two-party divide, and would be unhappy with the Democrats.

[sting in the rafters]

Any reason why CBC still has Coat of Bays uncalled? Only a 600 vote deficit and is traditionally a working-class Liberal stronghold, however Tories have been leading since poll close there. They must believe the outstanding absentee vote is even more red than the national.

The CPC is lucky as hell that the NDP and Liberals don’t resolve there differences and merge because … it’s clear the country is majority left of center. And if the PPC takes off at all then the CPC is REALLY screwed

Look at this guy, he thinks a NDP/Lib merger wouldn't lose voters to the right and result in a 50-50 equilibrium, as what has happened in the past and kinda happened provincially through Duverger's.

Also a Lib-NDP pact would lead to some NDPers simply staying home. Whatever gains are made in BC would be offset by losses in the remaining non-Montreal red/orange districts to the bloc and in AC/Maritimes to the Tories.

[jaichind]

Base on current leads NDP would have gained zero seats from LPC.  Amazing.  It seems to me Jagmeet Singh has to go. 

[MaxQue]

Any reason why CBC still has Coat of Bays uncalled? Only a 600 vote deficit and is traditionally a working-class Liberal stronghold, however Tories have been leading since poll close there. They must believe the outstanding absentee vote is even more red than the national.

What's left is the postal vote, which polls said the Conservatives will be a distant 3rd in.

[KaiserDave]

The CPC is lucky as hell that the NDP and Liberals don’t resolve there differences and merge because … it’s clear the country is majority left of center. And if the PPC takes off at all then the CPC is REALLY screwed

Most NDP voters would not go to the LPC.

[sting in the rafters]

Any reason why CBC still has Coat of Bays uncalled? Only a 600 vote deficit and is traditionally a working-class Liberal stronghold, however Tories have been leading since poll close there. They must believe the outstanding absentee vote is even more red than the national.

What's left is the postal vote, which polls said the Conservatives will be a distant 3rd in.

Understood, I was confused because unlike the American general last fall there doesn't seem to be any resource showing how much outstanding postal vote is left for each riding. mMybe it's my own stupidity but I can't find where on the EC website it shows the outstanding postal ballots.

This is the only source I could find and it's showing 2.4k ballots outstanding in COB, which obviously means the riding is still in play.

[MaxQue]

Any reason why CBC still has Coat of Bays uncalled? Only a 600 vote deficit and is traditionally a working-class Liberal stronghold, however Tories have been leading since poll close there. They must believe the outstanding absentee vote is even more red than the national.

What's left is the postal vote, which polls said the Conservatives will be a distant 3rd in.

Understood, I was confused because unlike the American general last fall there doesn't seem to be any resource showing how much outstanding postal vote is left for each riding. mMybe it's my own stupidity but I can't find where on the EC website it shows the outstanding postal ballots.

This is the only source I could find and it's showing 2.4k ballots outstanding in COB, which obviously means the riding is still in play.

https://www.elections.ca/content2.aspx?section=vote&dir=app/vbm&document=index&lang=e

It's in a CSV (excel) file there.