Why the CA-Recall results are bad for Democrats.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is absolutely ridiculous spin.  You guys are the ones who forced the recall.  Presumably that's because you were energized and mad about something.  And all that energy got you what?  an epic defeat.  At best this is nothing.  At worst this is evidence that the GOP's insane shenanigans on covid and masking are backfiring.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, please explain how your new analysis coincides with this:

LOL, LA County just over 50% to keep. Nah.

SoCal is very hostile to Newsom at the moment, which is the reason he will go down next month.

[Non Swing Voter]

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

Can someone explain to me what exactly is supposedly so uniquely bad about Newsom? What has he done that is so horrible, compared to other governors? I am sure he is not absolutely perfect in every possible way, but nobody is going to be that. So what exactly is this huge knock on him that allegedly makes him worse than your average governor to the extent that he allegedly ought to be gotten rid of mid-term?

There really isn't anything uniquely bad about him. Republicans have been trying to find someone to make into a villain the way that Democrats did to Trump, but the problem is they pick fairly boring and non-offensive people to do that with.

Newsom is nowhere near as bad as Trump, but that doesn't mean that he should be praised or liked either.

Stop twisting my words. I never said anyone was obligated to praise or like him. The point that you are not getting is that Newsom is not offensive enough to recall or even hate. Republicans hate him for a whole lot of imagined reasons that most voters do not even see.

What is your problem? I did not intend my post as an attack against you, but you chose to interpret it that way. No matter. I have to remind myself sometimes that I cannot allow myself to return to the situation I was in before my hiatus. I disagree with you with regards to Newsom. I believe that there are legitimate reasons to object to him or to disagree with him, and I've said before that I feel California Democrats would be better served by having another, more pragmatic Democrat as Governor rather than him.

Now, this doesn't mean that I would support some extremist becoming Governor. I didn't support Larry Elder, and I disagree with him on a number of issues. Republicans botched their campaign in California, and the field of replacement candidates was weak. What would the outcome have been if some formidable Democratic challenger had gotten in? Voters, I believe, would have seized that alternative.

You do have a very clear pattern of misinterpreting/misconstruing/misstating what people say to create a straw man for a narrative you believe in.  

[Non Swing Voter]

Atlas Blue Posters: Recall is a local race, results don't have federal implications.

Atlas Blue Posters: Recall is bad news for Dems in federal races because they won by same or bigger margin than the last Govs race (wave Dem year on federal level).

OK

[Non Swing Voter]

The analysts can spin it however they want.  Why are they comparing a gov. recall to Presidential results?  Why aren't they comparing it to Newsom's prior results? 

In a Dem wave year Newsom actually fared slightly worse than this time.  So on the one hand it's a couple points worse than the Biden win, on the other it's a couple points better than the Newsom win.  This says to me that there is no massive red wave building like people think.

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans only need 5 Seats to take the House so yes for once Harry Enten is right here! And they will get those 5 Seats purely through Redistricting. No wonder Democrats want a Federal Takeover of Election to push their liberal Agenda through!

The forecast for redistricting now has them only gaining 1-2 seats through redistricting. They will be guaranteed to lose at least 5 seats through redistricting and that is about what they will make up through their own efforts. At best they break even going into the election and they will end up being heavily reliant on holding and flipping Biden districts. Not as easy as it sounds.

There are also some Districts which Trump won in 2020 where a Democrat currently sits in the District. Don't forget that! And if Biden does have a similar JA like his former boss Obama GOP will retake the House no matter what!

There were more swing voters then.  This CA election shows that partisan makeup of the districts is key.  And there are more GOPers in Biden districts than the reverse.  That could change marginally based on redistricting but it's not looking like it's going to change much if Indiana and a few other states are any indication.

[Non Swing Voter]

Lol I could tell this was a Woodbury thread immediately.

Woodbury says Newsom underpreformed Biden in OC, but considering he almost lost that county in 2018 shows something.

I still don't get why the blue avatars are comparing Newsom to Biden rather than, I dunno... NEWSOM TO NEWSOM.  Don't we hear here all the time that local elections are different than federal ones?

[Non Swing Voter]

Lol I could tell this was a Woodbury thread immediately.

Woodbury says Newsom underpreformed Biden in OC, but considering he almost lost that county in 2018 shows something.

I still don't get why the blue avatars are comparing Newsom to Biden rather than, I dunno... NEWSOM TO NEWSOM.  Don't we hear here all the time that local elections are different than federal ones?

Losing Orange County by any margin in a gubernatorial election is embarrassing for Republicans. This is a horrible result for Republicans.

This is the new norm.  Bush beat Gore in Fairfax County Virginia.  The just barely lost it in 2004.  Since then the margins against Republicans have been LOL.