SirWoodbury's California Recall Prediction

[Woody]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/18362_29_08_21_5_29_46.png

[Woody]

Newsom ends up being narrowly recalled, and Elder becomes the new governor.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol the Cali SOS said the polls with Early vote has it 50/46 NEWSOM

It's a 304 map samething in VA with Early VBM 50/46 T Mac

Samething in WI, GA, PA 50/46 D's with Early VBM

Big DeSantis and Rubio being up three are in big trouble

[Panhandle Progressive]

Newsom ends up being narrowly recalled, and Elder becomes the new governor.

I just don't see San Diego county voting for the recall. Due to your miscalculation here and some other large metros in the state, Newsom retains his office. Let's consider for a moment Elder won, what would be his strategy for winning next November? Even if he became governor this year, he'd be gone 15 months later.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, LA County just over 50% to keep. Nah.

[Woody]

LOL, LA County just over 50% to keep. Nah.

SoCal is very hostile to Newsom at the moment, which is the reason he will go down next month.

[BoiseBoy]

This isn't a prediction, it's a wet dream.

[Real Texan Politics]

LOL, LA County just over 50% to keep. Nah.

To be fair I agree that Newsom fairs better in the SF Bay Area than in the LA and San Diego metros. A lot more hispanics down in SoCal.

[THG]

I don’t believe that the recall succeeds, but Woodbury is correct that SoCal is extremely hostile to Newsom.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LOL, LA County just over 50% to keep. Nah.

SoCal is very hostile to Newsom at the moment, which is the reason he will go down next month.

Not really, Latinos in Anaheim where I used to live might help in Redistricting up to 6 Rs out of Cali, do you realize what Elder said, he said Minimum wage should be zero

[Politics Fan]

I actually don’t think recall will even get to 60% in Orange County either. OC has changed a lot since 2004 and you have a much larger contingent of white liberals that probably vote to back Newsom. I kind of expect recall to only win OC by 8 to 10 percent.

I think the biggest factor working against recall is the fact while you probably have more than 50% of voters disliking Newsom you probably have an even greater amount of voters that don’t want a Republican in office. This spells trouble for the recall campaign seeing how the most likely alternative is a Republican. I wouldn’t be shocked if undecideds break heavy for remain and recall fails by more than 10% for this very reason.

[DrScholl]

That map looks like it would still be a fairly clear fail.

[MATTROSE94]

Newsom ends up being narrowly recalled, and Elder becomes the new governor.

I just don't see San Diego county voting for the recall. Due to your miscalculation here and some other large metros in the state, Newsom retains his office. Let's consider for a moment Elder won, what would be his strategy for winning next November? Even if he became governor this year, he'd be gone 15 months later.

Larry Elder could narrowly get re-elected next year due to the fact that it will be a Biden midterm. Still, he would be screwed in 2026 and would easily lose to Tom Steyer.

[Duke of York]

Newsom ends up being narrowly recalled, and Elder becomes the new governor.

I just don't see San Diego county voting for the recall. Due to your miscalculation here and some other large metros in the state, Newsom retains his office. Let's consider for a moment Elder won, what would be his strategy for winning next November? Even if he became governor this year, he'd be gone 15 months later.

Larry Elder could narrowly get re-elected next year due to the fact that it will be a Biden midterm. Still, he would be screwed in 2026 and would easily lose to Tom Steyer.

Nah. I don't see Elder getting re-elected in a general election.

[Holmes]

LOL, LA County just over 50% to keep. Nah.

SoCal is very hostile to Newsom at the moment, which is the reason he will go down next month.

Luckily the bay controls the state’s politics.

[Antonio the Sixth]

have fun with that fantasy

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Woodbury doesn't realize that Elder said that minimum wage should be zero, lol after he said that, he tanked with Latinos, even if Eider dies get Elected, nothing he can do with a D Supermajority legislature

[Non Swing Voter]

hot take: he's not recalled and it's not super close

[Matty]

hot take: he's not recalled and it's not super close

I think he’ll survive by 10 pts

I’m watching margins in socal though, to read 2022 tea leaves

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs look at Biden 49% Approvals and Afghanistan fallout and think Trump 2018 but Trump had upside down approval ratings

[Progressive Pessimist]

So, will you leave this time if you're wrong?

My prediction is that you won't.

[Tekken_Guy]

Newsom ends up being narrowly recalled, and Elder becomes the new governor.

Do you have the exact margin?

[Senator Incitatus]

LOL, LA County just over 50% to keep. Nah.

The map doesn't say "just over." I would be shocked if NO broke 60% in Los Angeles County.

[Schiff for Senate]

hot take: he's not recalled and it's not super close

Exactly. CA is a blue state and this prediction is just wishcasting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gavin Newsom passed another Stimulus and we will be getting it next mnth