Why the CA-Recall results are bad for Democrats.

[Woody]

Alright. I am briefly returning (like promised) to just give my insight on this election result:

While "no" did win, the environment shifted right from Biden's victory last year, and most likely going to shift more with the remaining ballots coming in. I also saw some talk that the OC Republicans would be in danger because of the results, as of right now however, "no" is leading by 5 points, while Biden won OC by 9 points, which Kim and Steel managed to survive, while running against incumbents... meaning that by theory, they should be able to survive next year.

Hispanics also trended right, showing that the national GOP is making headways with them after Trump.
Even after Democrats nationalized this race, had mail-in-ballots, made this about Trump, etc, they still underperformed Biden by a noticable margin. If the nation swung as much as this race come 2022, the GOP would gain the House and Senate, showcasing how vulnerable Dems' position are.

[Pericles]

Individual races have their own quirks, so the underperformance needs to be big to matter. And even then, one race can be excused, if there's a pattern of underperformances that signals a wave. That's why the 2018 wave was obvious once we kept on seeing double-digit overperformances by Democrats. To be fair though, Democrats have a much more vulnerable majority than Republicans in 2018 or Democrats in 2010. Republicans don't need a big swing to take Congress but a wave election isn't looking inevitable.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It is pretty dumb and uninformed to say that election night results in CA are bad for Dems.

CA has lots of mail ballots that arrive and are counted after election day (as long as they are mailed on/before election day). In the past, those votes have typically skewed Democratic. To the extent that is the case this time around, then Dem performance may well improve significantly after all of the votes are actually counted.

So wait until the votes are counted to draw your conclusions.

Or have a pie to the face. Your choice.

OK, I guess you're going with the pie.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Alright. I am briefly returning (like promised) to just give my insight on this election result:

1. Would've been better if you just dropped the cherade and didn't promise anything. But I get it, you need the attention.

2. Newsom could've beat the recall 90-10 and there'd still be a thread on how that's actually a bad result for Dems. Because on Atlas, every possible scenario is actually bad for the Dems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can tell you myself living in OC Latinos aren't shifting right, that was a Recall question, should we keep Newsom not a Genetic Ballot test, Latinos are more optimistic about their Congressional candidates


What are you talking about just because Latinos shifted right on the Recall, we have a Supermajority State Legislature D and D's are representing Latinos in state Legislature races, in San Diego and OC

Redistricting is gonna advantage Ds


Some of the recall was due to Seniors or Disabled people not getting Stimulus checks because EITV, if you didn't work and you got denied 11200 stimulus checks

Alot of Seniors live in OC

[Person Man]

It is pretty dumb and uninformed to say that election night results in CA are bad for Dems.

CA has lots of mail ballots that arrive and are counted after election day (as long as they are mailed on/before election day). In the past, those votes have typically skewed Democratic. To the extent that is the case this time around, then Dem performance may well improve significantly after all of the votes are actually counted.

So wait until the votes are counted to draw your conclusions.

Or have a pie to the face. Your choice.

OK, I guess you're going with the pie.

He will never have pie on his face.

[Agafin]

It is pretty dumb and uninformed to say that election night results in CA are bad for Dems.

CA has lots of mail ballots that arrive and are counted after election day (as long as they are mailed on/before election day). In the past, those votes have typically skewed Democratic. To the extent that is the case this time around, then Dem performance may well improve significantly after all of the votes are actually counted.

So wait until the votes are counted to draw your conclusions.

Or have a pie to the face. Your choice.

OK, I guess you're going with the pie.

As you said, that was in the past. I distinctly remember the Garcia Vs Smith race in 2020 and how each subsequent update made the result more favourable to Garcia until he eventually took the lead. This is the opposite of what happened in 2018. The combo of Covid 19 and Trump's attacks on mail-in voting has made democrats vote the earliest and republicans the latest.

So far the same is happening in the recall. I believe the earliest results (when mail-ins were all we had) had No getting over 70%. When I last looked at the NBC results, they had No up 67-33 with ~60% in and now it's 64-36 with ~70% of (estimated) votes counted.

[Brittain33]

While "no" did win, the environment shifted right from Biden's victory last year, and most likely going to shift more with the remaining ballots coming in.

Please show your math on this.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It is pretty dumb and uninformed to say that election night results in CA are bad for Dems.

CA has lots of mail ballots that arrive and are counted after election day (as long as they are mailed on/before election day). In the past, those votes have typically skewed Democratic. To the extent that is the case this time around, then Dem performance may well improve significantly after all of the votes are actually counted.

So wait until the votes are counted to draw your conclusions.

Or have a pie to the face. Your choice.

OK, I guess you're going with the pie.

As you said, that was in the past.

Sure, it is possible it could be different this time around. That is exactly the point. That is the reason to not jump to conclusions. It is possible that SirWoodbury's point could be valid, if he waited a week or two to make it. But he just went ahead and made it anyway, without waiting to see what the actual results are.

So far the same is happening in the recall. I believe the earliest results (when mail-ins were all we had) had No getting over 70%. When I last looked at the NBC results, they had No up 67-33 with ~60% in and now it's 64-36 with ~70% of (estimated) votes counted.

I didn't watch the results when they came in, so I will assume your observation about the trend is correct. Even assuming that, however, it doesn't mean that late breaking ballots won't skew more Dem. In the past, the reason for late breaking ballots skewing more Dem is that they tended to be from younger and more sporadic voters. It is plausible that the first mail ballots could have skewed more R, because those were disproportionately from engaged/angry Republicans who were eager to vote (and who were showing up in the earlier polls which had it closer). Whereas later ballots may be cast by voters who engaged later and were not super-invested in the recall.

Again, I am not saying this is necessarily true. Just that it may well be. And so we should wait to see the actual results before jumping to premature conclusions.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

They're bad for CA Democrats because they have to keep dealing with Gavin f**king Newsom while Larry Elder, the worst replacement candidate, received almost a majority of the vote.

This is what happens when you choose Yes for Question 1 and leave Question 2 blank.

[wbrocks67]

Also, I wouldn't say Hispanics trended right. Maybe a smidge but that's also likely mostly turnout factors. The exit poll seems to be very flawed, given that it's giving Newsom a 16-18 pt margin while right now it's looking likely to be +25, if not more.

[Holmes]

People keep saying “Orange county voted more to the right than it did in 2020! Kim and Steele safe!” But y’all realize Newsom barely won Orange by less than 0.4% in 2018? The year that those same seats flipped Democratic? And that California is more Republican on a statewide level than federally?

[Holmes]

They're bad for CA Democrats because they have to keep dealing with Gavin f**king Newsom while Larry Elder, the worst replacement candidate, received almost a majority of the vote.

This is what happens when you choose Yes for Question 1 and leave Question 2 blank.

No, Elder didn’t receive a majority of the votes for question 2, and many more people left question 2 blank than not. This isn’t as good of a showing for Elder than you’re making it out to be.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

People keep saying “Orange county voted more to the right than it did in 2020! Kim and Steele safe!” But y’all realize Newsom barely won Orange by less than 0.4% in 2018? The year that those same seats flipped Democratic? And that California is more Republican on a statewide level than federally?

We also must be careful of directly comparing this election to a regularly-scheduled election (or even a special election). 

[It’s so Joever]

Can you just take the L for once?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

They're bad for CA Democrats because they have to keep dealing with Gavin f**king Newsom while Larry Elder, the worst replacement candidate, received almost a majority of the vote.

This is what happens when you choose Yes for Question 1 and leave Question 2 blank.

This is the real bad news. Elder padded Newsom’s margin, and because he won by a lot, he’s less likely to change course (and there will be less external pressure on him to do so).

Newsom is a bad Governor in need of humbling or a primary. The recall made both of these things less likely.

[Calthrina950]

They're bad for CA Democrats because they have to keep dealing with Gavin f**king Newsom while Larry Elder, the worst replacement candidate, received almost a majority of the vote.

This is what happens when you choose Yes for Question 1 and leave Question 2 blank.

This is the real bad news. Elder padded Newsom’s margin, and because he won by a lot, he’s less likely to change course (and there will be less external pressure on him to do so).

Newsom is a bad Governor in need of humbling or a primary. The recall made both of these things less likely.

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

[Holmes]

They're bad for CA Democrats because they have to keep dealing with Gavin f**king Newsom while Larry Elder, the worst replacement candidate, received almost a majority of the vote.

This is what happens when you choose Yes for Question 1 and leave Question 2 blank.

This is the real bad news. Elder padded Newsom’s margin, and because he won by a lot, he’s less likely to change course (and there will be less external pressure on him to do so).

Newsom is a bad Governor in need of humbling or a primary. The recall made both of these things less likely.

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

We’re actually still allowed to complain about whoever we want.

[Calthrina950]

They're bad for CA Democrats because they have to keep dealing with Gavin f**king Newsom while Larry Elder, the worst replacement candidate, received almost a majority of the vote.

This is what happens when you choose Yes for Question 1 and leave Question 2 blank.

This is the real bad news. Elder padded Newsom’s margin, and because he won by a lot, he’s less likely to change course (and there will be less external pressure on him to do so).

Newsom is a bad Governor in need of humbling or a primary. The recall made both of these things less likely.

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

We’re actually still allowed to complain about whoever we want.

Technically you are, but such complaints hold less force now than they did before. And this will especially be the case if Newsom is reelected next year. The best outcome for Democrats would have been to recall Newsom and replace him with a more moderate or pragmatic Democrat.

[Calthrina950]

Technically you are, but such complaints hold less force now than they did before. And this will especially be the case if Newsom is reelected next year. The best outcome for Democrats would have been to recall Newsom and replace him with a more moderate or pragmatic Democrat.

Democrats don't want the same things in a leader conservatives do.

Are you saying that Democrats want a leader who is proudly progressive? I'm not going to say that they can't have that, but is it not possible to have a progressive who is also pragmatic? Someone in the vein of say, Jared Polis? Newsom's hypocrisy with regards to the pandemic is what I object to the most, and I do think that California wouldn't be hurt by having a Governor who is more sensible on social issues.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Newsom is emboldened by his victory in the recall, and I'm sure he now believes that he has a mandate from the electorate, even more so than what he possessed before. California voters will now have to deal with the consequences; they have no grounds to complain about Newsom in the future.

Can someone explain to me what exactly is supposedly so uniquely bad about Newsom? What has he done that is so horrible, compared to other governors? I am sure he is not absolutely perfect in every possible way, but nobody is going to be that. So what exactly is this huge knock on him that allegedly makes him worse than your average governor to the extent that he allegedly ought to be gotten rid of mid-term?

[Lognog]

It's a troll thread, however Newsom's weakness among hispanic voters (in the average of post 2016 elections) is a part of a very worrying trend

[Sir Mohamed]

Never change, Woodbury.

There's just no valid claim to say from the results that the environment has shifted. CA may be a poor indicator for that in the 1st place, regardless of the result. Just a quick reminder that the 2010 and 2014 R waves basically stopped in CA. So people shouldn't base any 2022 prediction off these results. If it tells us anything, then that county flips from HRC and Biden in 2016 and 2020, respectively, weren't flukes at all. Just like IA statewide races in 2018 confirmed Trump's 2016 victory and rural shifts weren't a fluke either.

[Calthrina950]

Technically you are, but such complaints hold less force now than they did before. And this will especially be the case if Newsom is reelected next year. The best outcome for Democrats would have been to recall Newsom and replace him with a more moderate or pragmatic Democrat.

Democrats don't want the same things in a leader conservatives do.

Are you saying that Democrats want a leader who is proudly progressive? I'm not going to say that they can't have that, but is it not possible to have a progressive who is also pragmatic? Someone in the vein of say, Jared Polis? Newsom's hypocrisy with regards to the pandemic is what I object to the most, and I do think that California wouldn't be hurt by having a Governor who is more sensible on social issues.

I am, yes. I entirely agree we should want politicians who are pragmatic and to punish hypocrites, but the Democratic base isn't looking for someone more conservative on social or fiscal issues. We are interested in seeing our values realized, not in compromising with Republicans who don't seem to regard us as lawful voters.

California would be best served by a competent, moral governor who reflects the values of its majority.

I'm not saying that California should elect a Governor who would impose Texas-style abortion laws or engage in useless culture war crusades such as the fight against "critical race theory" (which as you know, I've been very much opposed to Republicans on). But I do think that steps can be taken by Democrats to better maintain their position among working-class and minority voters, and to do so in a way that reminds them of the substantive benefits which they can derive from Democratic legislation. I don't think Newsom would be the best such advocate for this. Moreover, I also think that he's not the person to address some of the more underlying problems-such as homelessness-which the state has faced.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is absolutely ridiculous spin.  You guys are the ones who forced the recall.  Presumably that's because you were energized and mad about something.  And all that energy got you what?  an epic defeat.  At best this is nothing.  At worst this is evidence that the GOP's insane shenanigans on covid and masking are backfiring.