THG’s current California recall prediction(s)

[Non Swing Voter]

WARNING: HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

• Nuisance survives by roughly 5-10 points or so as of now. I don’t see him being recalled as much as I’d yearn to see it occur.
• He collapses in SoCal, the more Central part of the state, the Sac Area, and literally everywhere that isn’t the Bay Area massively- but crucially, remains strong enough in the Bay Area to basically not lose. And remember- the Bay Area has unfortunately spiritually controlled California’s politics for the last 30 years, which it probably will continue to do, although that will eventually slowly but surely change.
• Nuisance does utterly horrendously with non college/working class voters of all races (including minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, based on polls) and also does very poorly among independents, but again, the types of liberals in the Bay (and other parts of the state, but mostly the Bay) who are partisan Democrats probably save him. Again, California is politically spiritually controlled by ultra ideologically liberal white Bay Area types, even if the raw demographics of the state on paper may tell you a somewhat different story.
• The recall map probably looks somewhat similar to the 2004 Presidential Election results in California.
• The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022.

 

Just preserving this before he can edit/modify it after results come in.

[Non Swing Voter]

WARNING: HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

• Nuisance survives by roughly 5-10 points or so as of now. I don’t see him being recalled as much as I’d yearn to see it occur.
• He collapses in SoCal, the more Central part of the state, the Sac Area, and literally everywhere that isn’t the Bay Area massively- but crucially, remains strong enough in the Bay Area to basically not lose. And remember- the Bay Area has unfortunately spiritually controlled California’s politics for the last 30 years, which it probably will continue to do, although that will eventually slowly but surely change.
• Nuisance does utterly horrendously with non college/working class voters of all races (including minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, based on polls) and also does very poorly among independents, but again, the types of liberals in the Bay (and other parts of the state, but mostly the Bay) who are partisan Democrats probably save him. Again, California is politically spiritually controlled by ultra ideologically liberal white Bay Area types, even if the raw demographics of the state on paper may tell you a somewhat different story.
• The recall map probably looks somewhat similar to the 2004 Presidential Election results in California.
• The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022.

 

So about that...

TBF, the recall was a whole different race on September 1st. Even the most Dem partisan hacks weren't predicting a +20 result.

hot take: he's not recalled and it's not super close

[Non Swing Voter]

TBF, THG isn't the only one.  The below poster has called me a "hack" in numerous threads for arguing that Dems could do well in 2022...

hot take: he's not recalled and it's not super close

I think he’ll survive by 10 pts

I’m watching margins in socal though, to read 2022 tea leaves

[Non Swing Voter]

WARNING: HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

• Nuisance survives by roughly 5-10 points or so as of now. I don’t see him being recalled as much as I’d yearn to see it occur.
• He collapses in SoCal, the more Central part of the state, the Sac Area, and literally everywhere that isn’t the Bay Area massively- but crucially, remains strong enough in the Bay Area to basically not lose. And remember- the Bay Area has unfortunately spiritually controlled California’s politics for the last 30 years, which it probably will continue to do, although that will eventually slowly but surely change.
• Nuisance does utterly horrendously with non college/working class voters of all races (including minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, based on polls) and also does very poorly among independents, but again, the types of liberals in the Bay (and other parts of the state, but mostly the Bay) who are partisan Democrats probably save him. Again, California is politically spiritually controlled by ultra ideologically liberal white Bay Area types, even if the raw demographics of the state on paper may tell you a somewhat different story.
• The recall map probably looks somewhat similar to the 2004 Presidential Election results in California.
• The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022.

 

So about that...

So going by this logic, 2022 should be a good year for Democrats.  But now I guess the argument will shift to this NOT being a good predictor of 2022 because it's California and therefore not predictive. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Interesting--but not at all a surprise--that he is radio-silent tonight.

do you think he will ever return to this thread?  Should we put his moniker on a milk carton?

[Non Swing Voter]

Wow did he retire?  I haven't seen 100 posts from him today.

[Non Swing Voter]

THG has not made a single post in 24 hours now.  It's been stuck at 1630.  Genuinely starting to get concerned that the CA results broke him.

[Non Swing Voter]

Still at 1630.  Should we be concerned?  For reference he was posting upwards of 50 times a day just prior to the recall results...

[Non Swing Voter]

Also my FINAL prediction had Newsom winning by closer to 15 than single digits.

I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.

No your final prediction wasn't "closer to 15" it was 10-15, which is still double digits off despite the fact that you made it 24 hours before poll closing.  The fact that you can't just admit you were way way way off when you've lambasted Democrats for far less egregious errors is sad.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also my FINAL prediction had Newsom winning by closer to 15 than single digits.

I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.

No your final prediction wasn't "closer to 15" it was 10-15, which is still double digits off despite the fact that you made it 24 hours before poll closing.  The fact that you can't just admit you were way way way off when you've lambasted Democrats for far less egregious errors is sad.

I would wait until all the election day votes are counted if I were you, and I've explained why.

Trump was losing California by 40 on November the 4th, which was obviously "double digits off" to what the his real margin of loss is. I'm not guaranteeing a huge swing to Elder- I believe "No" wins by 20 as of now, but California hasn't even finished counting of all the ballots so far.

More votes were just counted in OC and Gavin's NO lead increased.  There is no way either your initial prediction or your revised prediction are even remotely close to accurate. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Also my FINAL prediction had Newsom winning by closer to 15 than single digits.

I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.

No your final prediction wasn't "closer to 15" it was 10-15, which is still double digits off despite the fact that you made it 24 hours before poll closing.  The fact that you can't just admit you were way way way off when you've lambasted Democrats for far less egregious errors is sad.

I would wait until all the election day votes are counted if I were you, and I've explained why.

Trump was losing California by 40 on November the 4th, which was obviously "double digits off" to what the his real margin of loss is. I'm not guaranteeing a huge swing to Elder- I believe "No" wins by 20 as of now, but California hasn't even finished counting of all the ballots so far.

More votes were just counted in OC and Gavin's NO lead increased.  There is no way either your initial prediction or your revised prediction are even remotely close to accurate. 

We'll see! I'll be happy for you if you're right.

Like I said, I'm only basing my predictions off of what occurred in 2020. Most of the other vote dumps other than the OC one you highlighted have actually showcased that late ballots and in person vote dumps have generally actually favored YES.

Also, YES on recall has gradually increased since last night. This indicates that late ballots lean Republican and that in person votes in California are generally counted after election day, unlike other states.

Current margin is 27.5.  You've got a long way to go to get that down to ur second-revised-prediction of 20, which is still higher than your revision of "closer to 15" which is higher than "10-15," which is higher than "5-10" (which is where we started just 2 weeks ago). But we'll see.  Call me optimistic but I don't think it gets down to 20. 

The irony here as that setting expectations so low has really now empowered Gavin "Nuisance" which I am sure was not what you guys wanted, right?

[Non Swing Voter]

Updates THG?  New data is out.

[Non Swing Voter]

If you are wrong here on Atlas, the best thing to do is just take the L. Don’t dig yourself in any further.

What is disturbing is this seems to be a trend among blue avatars and Republicans in general.  Trump has taught them that if you are wrong just deny it, obfuscate the facts, misrepresent the past, muddy the waters.  There is no more objective truth for 40% of the country. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Okay, for the record here are the current results:

✓NO: 5,907,575 (63.8%)
YES: 3,354,109 (36.2%)

Also for THG's information the remaining votes will be relatively split, since the mail-in within four days and drop-box returns counteract the Election Day vote.

It doesn't look like it's tightening all that much?

[Non Swing Voter]

Okay, for the record here are the current results:

✓NO: 5,907,575 (63.8%)
YES: 3,354,109 (36.2%)

Also for THG's information the remaining votes will be relatively split, since the mail-in within four days and drop-box returns counteract the Election Day vote.

It doesn't look like it's tightening all that much?

So far no. It's been the same all of today.

So it could end up still being over +25 for NO when everything's counted?  I am having trouble understanding how they can make estimates of outstanding ballots when everyone is sent a ballot and some could have just mailed it out the day before the election.

[Non Swing Voter]

SOCAL PRECINCT RESULTS IN (but it is behind a paywall):

https://www.latimes.com/projects/newsom-recall-election-results-southern-california-analysis/

[Non Swing Voter]

UPDATE:

78% IN:

NO: 6,120,868 (63.7%)
YES: 3,492,387 (36.3%)

Hey THG is this the ED vote R swing you had in mind?

I can't remember what it was on election night at this point but it looks like it's barely swung 1%.  Why was the assumption that it would swing anyways?  I thought the Election Day vote was the most Republican and presumably most of the late ballots were mailed.  What am I missing here?

[Non Swing Voter]

OK so there are only 5 more days to receive ballots then? 

And I'm sure they are gonna drop off the later this goes.  So maybe we have more than 78% counted at this point.  This doesn't seem like it's going to change much at all at this point.

[Non Swing Voter]

UPDATE:
NO: 6,126,111 (63.6%)
YES: 3,502,254 (37.4%)

IT GREW RIGHT??

[Non Swing Voter]

It grew:

NO: 6,446,504 (63.6%)
YES: 3,684,144 (36.4%)

What's the explanation?  Just bluer counties reporting now?  I think people here are looking too much at the last election (as always) in thinking there would be a huge split between early absentee / absentee / Election Day / late absentee balloting etc. etc.  It seems like there are some differences here and there but not huge ones.  It's looking like NO could stay north of +25.  Newsom won by +24. 

[Non Swing Voter]

It grew:

NO: 6,446,504 (63.6%)
YES: 3,684,144 (36.4%)

What's the explanation?  Just bluer counties reporting now?  I think people here are looking too much at the last election (as always) in thinking there would be a huge split between early absentee / absentee / Election Day / late absentee balloting etc. etc.  It seems like there are some differences here and there but not huge ones.  It's looking like NO could stay north of +25.  Newsom won by +24. 

I don't know. Anyway, massive vote drop brings us up to 85% in:

NO: 6,698,131 (63.5%)
YES: 3,856,169 (36.5%)

LOL, so there's been almost no tightening at all?  A couple of people here keep saying this will tighten to around a 20% margin.  Not happening. 

[Non Swing Voter]

It grew:

NO: 6,446,504 (63.6%)
YES: 3,684,144 (36.4%)

What's the explanation?  Just bluer counties reporting now?  I think people here are looking too much at the last election (as always) in thinking there would be a huge split between early absentee / absentee / Election Day / late absentee balloting etc. etc.  It seems like there are some differences here and there but not huge ones.  It's looking like NO could stay north of +25.  Newsom won by +24. 

I don't know. Anyway, massive vote drop brings us up to 85% in:

NO: 6,698,131 (63.5%)
YES: 3,856,169 (36.5%)

LOL, so there's been almost no tightening at all?  A couple of people here keep saying this will tighten to around a 20% margin.  Not happening. 

Minor vote drop:

NO: 6,714,964 (63.5%)
YES: 3,860,657 (36.5%)

No change at all with each vote drop...  it is not going to 20 like some have adamantly claimed.

[Non Swing Voter]

I don't know how accurate this is but according to CNN it looks like the only huge vote county with a ton of outstanding vote is Alameda, which is currently voting NO (82-17).  It says it's only 65% in, which is way below the state avg.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2021/results/california/recall

[Non Swing Voter]

slight update:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2021/results/california

No - 63.4%   6,841,992
Yes - 36.6%   3,956,977

Essentially no movement.  Says 84% in.  The estimates of it going down to a 20% margin are way off base as are the exit polls that keep being cited in every thread. 

[Non Swing Voter]

BIGGER update:

No 63.0%    6,984,595
Yes 37.0%    4,094,764

Now saying 87% in.  Getting close to final.  Margin now 26 even.