THG’s current California recall prediction(s)
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  THG’s current California recall prediction(s)
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Author Topic: THG’s current California recall prediction(s)  (Read 2463 times)
THG
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« on: September 01, 2021, 02:52:28 PM »
« edited: September 01, 2021, 03:31:05 PM by Freethinker Tom Rice »

WARNING: HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.



  • Nuisance survives by roughly 5-10 points or so as of now. I don’t see him being recalled as much as I’d yearn to see it occur.
  • He collapses in SoCal, the more Central part of the state, the Sac Area, and literally everywhere that isn’t the Bay Area massively- but crucially, remains strong enough in the Bay Area to basically not lose. And remember- the Bay Area has unfortunately spiritually controlled California’s politics for the last 30 years, which it probably will continue to do, although that will eventually slowly but surely change.
  • Nuisance does utterly horrendously with non college/working class voters of all races (including minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, based on polls) and also does very poorly among independents, but again, the types of liberals in the Bay (and other parts of the state, but mostly the Bay) who are partisan Democrats probably save him. Again, California is politically spiritually controlled by ultra ideologically liberal white Bay Area types, even if the raw demographics of the state on paper may tell you a somewhat different story.
  • The recall map probably looks somewhat similar to the 2004 Presidential Election results in California.
  • The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022.



 
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Matty
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« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2021, 03:56:23 PM »

If he loses OC by 10+, I think Katie Porter becomes an underdog
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Holmes
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« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2021, 03:59:53 PM »

Can this recall election just end already so Republicans can stop thinking they have even a sliver of a chance
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« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2021, 08:58:21 PM »

WARNING: HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.



  • Nuisance survives by roughly 5-10 points or so as of now. I don’t see him being recalled as much as I’d yearn to see it occur.
  • He collapses in SoCal, the more Central part of the state, the Sac Area, and literally everywhere that isn’t the Bay Area massively- but crucially, remains strong enough in the Bay Area to basically not lose. And remember- the Bay Area has unfortunately spiritually controlled California’s politics for the last 30 years, which it probably will continue to do, although that will eventually slowly but surely change.
  • Nuisance does utterly horrendously with non college/working class voters of all races (including minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, based on polls) and also does very poorly among independents, but again, the types of liberals in the Bay (and other parts of the state, but mostly the Bay) who are partisan Democrats probably save him. Again, California is politically spiritually controlled by ultra ideologically liberal white Bay Area types, even if the raw demographics of the state on paper may tell you a somewhat different story.
  • The recall map probably looks somewhat similar to the 2004 Presidential Election results in California.
  • The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022.



 

Just preserving this before he can edit/modify it after results come in.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2021, 09:27:48 PM »

lol
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2021, 10:42:37 PM »

WARNING: HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.



  • Nuisance survives by roughly 5-10 points or so as of now. I don’t see him being recalled as much as I’d yearn to see it occur.
  • He collapses in SoCal, the more Central part of the state, the Sac Area, and literally everywhere that isn’t the Bay Area massively- but crucially, remains strong enough in the Bay Area to basically not lose. And remember- the Bay Area has unfortunately spiritually controlled California’s politics for the last 30 years, which it probably will continue to do, although that will eventually slowly but surely change.
  • Nuisance does utterly horrendously with non college/working class voters of all races (including minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, based on polls) and also does very poorly among independents, but again, the types of liberals in the Bay (and other parts of the state, but mostly the Bay) who are partisan Democrats probably save him. Again, California is politically spiritually controlled by ultra ideologically liberal white Bay Area types, even if the raw demographics of the state on paper may tell you a somewhat different story.
  • The recall map probably looks somewhat similar to the 2004 Presidential Election results in California.
  • The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022.



 


So about that...
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kwabbit
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« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2021, 10:48:05 PM »

WARNING: HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.



  • Nuisance survives by roughly 5-10 points or so as of now. I don’t see him being recalled as much as I’d yearn to see it occur.
  • He collapses in SoCal, the more Central part of the state, the Sac Area, and literally everywhere that isn’t the Bay Area massively- but crucially, remains strong enough in the Bay Area to basically not lose. And remember- the Bay Area has unfortunately spiritually controlled California’s politics for the last 30 years, which it probably will continue to do, although that will eventually slowly but surely change.
  • Nuisance does utterly horrendously with non college/working class voters of all races (including minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, based on polls) and also does very poorly among independents, but again, the types of liberals in the Bay (and other parts of the state, but mostly the Bay) who are partisan Democrats probably save him. Again, California is politically spiritually controlled by ultra ideologically liberal white Bay Area types, even if the raw demographics of the state on paper may tell you a somewhat different story.
  • The recall map probably looks somewhat similar to the 2004 Presidential Election results in California.
  • The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022.



 


So about that...


TBF, the recall was a whole different race on September 1st. Even the most Dem partisan hacks weren't predicting a +20 result.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2021, 10:53:38 PM »

WARNING: HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.



  • Nuisance survives by roughly 5-10 points or so as of now. I don’t see him being recalled as much as I’d yearn to see it occur.
  • He collapses in SoCal, the more Central part of the state, the Sac Area, and literally everywhere that isn’t the Bay Area massively- but crucially, remains strong enough in the Bay Area to basically not lose. And remember- the Bay Area has unfortunately spiritually controlled California’s politics for the last 30 years, which it probably will continue to do, although that will eventually slowly but surely change.
  • Nuisance does utterly horrendously with non college/working class voters of all races (including minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, based on polls) and also does very poorly among independents, but again, the types of liberals in the Bay (and other parts of the state, but mostly the Bay) who are partisan Democrats probably save him. Again, California is politically spiritually controlled by ultra ideologically liberal white Bay Area types, even if the raw demographics of the state on paper may tell you a somewhat different story.
  • The recall map probably looks somewhat similar to the 2004 Presidential Election results in California.
  • The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022.



 


So about that...


TBF, the recall was a whole different race on September 1st. Even the most Dem partisan hacks weren't predicting a +20 result.


hot take: he's not recalled and it's not super close
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2021, 10:56:12 PM »

TBF, THG isn't the only one.  The below poster has called me a "hack" in numerous threads for arguing that Dems could do well in 2022...

hot take: he's not recalled and it's not super close

I think he’ll survive by 10 pts

I’m watching margins in socal though, to read 2022 tea leaves
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2021, 10:57:31 PM »

WARNING: HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.



  • Nuisance survives by roughly 5-10 points or so as of now. I don’t see him being recalled as much as I’d yearn to see it occur.
  • He collapses in SoCal, the more Central part of the state, the Sac Area, and literally everywhere that isn’t the Bay Area massively- but crucially, remains strong enough in the Bay Area to basically not lose. And remember- the Bay Area has unfortunately spiritually controlled California’s politics for the last 30 years, which it probably will continue to do, although that will eventually slowly but surely change.
  • Nuisance does utterly horrendously with non college/working class voters of all races (including minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, based on polls) and also does very poorly among independents, but again, the types of liberals in the Bay (and other parts of the state, but mostly the Bay) who are partisan Democrats probably save him. Again, California is politically spiritually controlled by ultra ideologically liberal white Bay Area types, even if the raw demographics of the state on paper may tell you a somewhat different story.
  • The recall map probably looks somewhat similar to the 2004 Presidential Election results in California.
  • The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022.



 


So about that...


So going by this logic, 2022 should be a good year for Democrats.  But now I guess the argument will shift to this NOT being a good predictor of 2022 because it's California and therefore not predictive. 
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2021, 11:03:59 PM »

oof
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2021, 11:10:38 PM »

Interesting--but not at all a surprise--that he is radio-silent tonight.
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« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2021, 11:22:47 PM »

Interesting--but not at all a surprise--that he is radio-silent tonight.

do you think he will ever return to this thread?  Should we put his moniker on a milk carton?
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2021, 12:17:08 AM »
« Edited: September 15, 2021, 12:23:36 AM by CentristRepublican »

Can this recall election just end already so Republicans can stop thinking they have even a sliver of a chance

Exactly. I've said all along that Newsom will win, and win big, despite what Republicans and Democrats here alike hope/fear depending on their political preference have said about Newsom being in trouble. California went for Biden with well over 60%; Newsom will win by double digits - BUT that's not necessarily saying much at all since Biden won by nearly 30 points. In fact, if Newsom wins by less than 15 points, it's a terrible sign for Democrats, and if he wins by over 20, then that's a good sign.

WARNING: HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.



      • Nuisance survives by roughly 5-10 points or so as of now. I don’t see him being recalled as much as I’d yearn to see it occur.
      [/b][/list]
      • He collapses in SoCal, the more Central part of the state, the Sac Area, and literally everywhere that isn’t the Bay Area massively- but crucially, remains strong enough in the Bay Area to basically not lose. And remember- the Bay Area has unfortunately spiritually controlled California’s politics for the last 30 years, which it probably will continue to do, although that will eventually slowly but surely change.
      • Nuisance does utterly horrendously with non college/working class voters of all races (including minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, based on polls) and also does very poorly among independents, but again, the types of liberals in the Bay (and other parts of the state, but mostly the Bay) who are partisan Democrats probably save him. Again, California is politically spiritually controlled by ultra ideologically liberal white Bay Area types, even if the raw demographics of the state on paper may tell you a somewhat different story.
      • The recall map probably looks somewhat similar to the 2004 Presidential Election results in California.
      • The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022.
      [/list]


      Newsom will win big; people thought it would be competitive but it won't. NEWSOM WILL WIN BY DOUBLE DIGITS FOR SURE, as I insisted well prior to the election results coming in. I know you said it'd be hot takes, but this is like some Democrat 'predicting' (wishcasting) Ohio's senate seat will stay blue in 2024 just because. Newsom will probably underperform Biden's 29 point margin greatly, but 5-10 points is wishcasting and utterly impossible.
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      Junior Chimp
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      « Reply #14 on: September 15, 2021, 10:26:03 AM »

      Wow did he retire?  I haven't seen 100 posts from him today.
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      Not Me, Us
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      « Reply #15 on: September 15, 2021, 11:33:06 AM »

      Wow did he retire?  I haven't seen 100 posts from him today.

      But who will repeat that the vaccine mandate is going to be struck down ad nauseam in every tangentially related thread now?
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      Non Swing Voter
      Junior Chimp
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      « Reply #16 on: September 15, 2021, 03:55:47 PM »

      THG has not made a single post in 24 hours now.  It's been stuck at 1630.  Genuinely starting to get concerned that the CA results broke him.
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      Frodo
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      « Reply #17 on: September 15, 2021, 04:10:54 PM »

      Are you all trying to turn him into the 2021 version of mylpalfish?  Smiley
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      Non Swing Voter
      Junior Chimp
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      « Reply #18 on: September 15, 2021, 07:10:39 PM »

      Still at 1630.  Should we be concerned?  For reference he was posting upwards of 50 times a day just prior to the recall results...
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      Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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      « Reply #19 on: September 15, 2021, 08:23:34 PM »

      Still at 1630.  Should we be concerned?  For reference he was posting upwards of 50 times a day just prior to the recall results...

      He hasn't posted in over a day, but he was online just a few minutes ago.
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      THG
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      « Reply #20 on: September 15, 2021, 08:46:38 PM »
      « Edited: September 15, 2021, 08:59:04 PM by Freethinker Tom Rice »

      I'll freely admit that this prediction (so far) was hilariously terrible, but I would possibly wait until every last ballot (including the in person ones) is accounted for before the mockery begins. So that'd be in October.

      My logic? Trump was losing California by either 40 or 36 (can't remember) on November the 4th, and Young Kim and David Valadao were also losing their races respectively.

      This is before late VBM's and mail in ballots were counted.

      Trump ended up narrowing the gap to "only" 29 as did Kim and Valadao, and California takes ridiculously long to count.

      Of course, I could be wrong yet again, but I have to defend myself on some capacity. I think the margin (when it's said and done) is closer to like 61-39 or 60-40. Maybe it cracks 40% if God feels sorry for me after my prediction.

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      THG
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      « Reply #21 on: September 15, 2021, 08:49:29 PM »

      Also my FINAL prediction had Newsom winning by closer to 15 than single digits.

      I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.


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      Non Swing Voter
      Junior Chimp
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      « Reply #22 on: September 15, 2021, 09:15:32 PM »

      Also my FINAL prediction had Newsom winning by closer to 15 than single digits.

      I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.




      No your final prediction wasn't "closer to 15" it was 10-15, which is still double digits off despite the fact that you made it 24 hours before poll closing.  The fact that you can't just admit you were way way way off when you've lambasted Democrats for far less egregious errors is sad.
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      THG
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      « Reply #23 on: September 15, 2021, 09:20:56 PM »
      « Edited: September 15, 2021, 09:25:36 PM by Freethinker Tom Rice »

      Also my FINAL prediction had Newsom winning by closer to 15 than single digits.

      I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.




      No your final prediction wasn't "closer to 15" it was 10-15, which is still double digits off despite the fact that you made it 24 hours before poll closing.  The fact that you can't just admit you were way way way off when you've lambasted Democrats for far less egregious errors is sad.

      I would wait until all the election day votes are counted if I were you, and I've explained why.

      Trump was losing California by 40 on November the 4th, which was obviously "double digits off" to what the his real margin of loss is. I'm not guaranteeing a huge swing to Elder- I believe "No" wins by around 20 as of now, but California hasn't even finished counting of all the ballots so far.

      When all of the ballots are counted for is when we should be having this debate.
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      Non Swing Voter
      Junior Chimp
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      « Reply #24 on: September 15, 2021, 09:25:25 PM »

      Also my FINAL prediction had Newsom winning by closer to 15 than single digits.

      I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.




      No your final prediction wasn't "closer to 15" it was 10-15, which is still double digits off despite the fact that you made it 24 hours before poll closing.  The fact that you can't just admit you were way way way off when you've lambasted Democrats for far less egregious errors is sad.

      I would wait until all the election day votes are counted if I were you, and I've explained why.

      Trump was losing California by 40 on November the 4th, which was obviously "double digits off" to what the his real margin of loss is. I'm not guaranteeing a huge swing to Elder- I believe "No" wins by 20 as of now, but California hasn't even finished counting of all the ballots so far.


      More votes were just counted in OC and Gavin's NO lead increased.  There is no way either your initial prediction or your revised prediction are even remotely close to accurate. 
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