CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The Counties to watch tomorrow night:

Los Angeles County: Minority and White Dem turnout
Orange County: Suburban voters
Imperial County: Hispanic Turnout
Santa Clara County: Newsom's home region advantage
Kern County: Hispanic and GOP turnout
Santa Barbara County: Statewide Bellwether
Shasta County: GOP turnout
Yolo County: College voter turnout
San Francisco: Newsom's home turf
Nevada County: Ski Resorts
  

Inyo County: the County's one and only voter.  What will he do?

(Seriously though, thank you for this, Thunder!)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The Counties to watch tomorrow night:

Los Angeles County: Minority and White Dem turnout
Orange County: Suburban voters
Imperial County: Hispanic Turnout
Santa Clara County: Newsom's home region advantage
Kern County: Hispanic and GOP turnout
Santa Barbara County: Statewide Bellwether
Shasta County: GOP turnout
Yolo County: College voter turnout
San Francisco: Newsom's home turf
Nevada County: Ski Resorts
  

Inyo County: the County's one and only voter.  What will he do?

(Seriously though, thank you for this, Thunder!)

If 2020’s results hold, I think I might be more confused than if Inyo went back to its usual results. I’ll probably be in Bishop on Saturday haha. I’ll see if anything screams “This is Newsom/Biden Land”.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The Counties to watch tomorrow night:

Los Angeles County: Minority and White Dem turnout
Orange County: Suburban voters
Imperial County: Hispanic Turnout
Santa Clara County: Newsom's home region advantage
Kern County: Hispanic and GOP turnout
Santa Barbara County: Statewide Bellwether
Shasta County: GOP turnout
Yolo County: College voter turnout
San Francisco: Newsom's home turf
Nevada County: Ski Resorts
 

Inland Empire gets no respect. Sad!

[DrScholl]

If Elder pulls the same stunts Trump did and incite violence then he is going to find out real quick that he is still black, because there are some white folks who gave Trump a pass who will not give a black man a pass.

[sguberman]

I wonder how many no/elder voters are out there?

[Holmes]

I wonder how many no/elder voters are out there?

There's one on this forum.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Total ballots returned = 7,327,713
Dems 3,852,837 (52.6%)
Reps 1,819,002 (24.8%)
Ind/Other 1,655,874 (22.6%)

Turnout = Dems (37%) Reps (34%), Ind/Other (25%)

Total ballots returned = 7,757,346
Dems 4,070,655 (52.5%)
Reps 1,931,763 (24.9%)
Ind/Other 1,754,928 (22.6%)

Turnout = Dems (39%), Reps (36%), Ind/Other (27%)

Gonna steal wbrocks67's thunder for a sec.


Total ballots returned: 8,722,954
Dems 4,509,992 (51.7%)
Reps 2,233,539 (25.6%)
Ind/Other 1,979,423 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (43%), Reps (42%), Ind/Other (30%)

----

Again, for comparison on election eve 2020, it was 12.1M ballots returned, with Dems 50.9%/Reps 24.4%/Ind-Other 24.6%.

Turnout was Dems (61%), Reps (55%), Ind/Other (46%)

Dems were +26.5 on Reps in 2020 on this day, today its +26.1.

[wbrocks67]

A better day for Reps - assuming that we probably got another dump of in-person votes, which seem to be 3/4 Republican, or close to it

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

If nothing else, it's a treat to witness and appreciate an extremely rare event in American political science -- a little slice of election history. 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

At what date/time do you get a final'ish result?

[Holmes]

At what date/time do you get a final'ish result?

About 3 weeks from now, but I’d say about 75% of the votes will be reported tonight/within a couple of days. We’ll have a good idea of what’s gonna happen by the end of the night anyway.

[THG]

I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.

[Holmes]

I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.

Your friend is dumb but at least you made money out of it.

[THG]

I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.

Your friend is dumb but at least you made money out of it.

Yeah, I feel bad for him.

[THG]

https://www.twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1437611826456383492

I don’t know what this means, if anything, but it’ll be rather interesting.

[Oryxslayer]

At what date/time do you get a final'ish result?

About 3 weeks from now, but I’d say about 75% of the votes will be reported tonight/within a couple of days. We’ll have a good idea of what’s gonna happen by the end of the night anyway.

Yeah history says about 75% of the vote is in the hands of the county boards or in dropboxes already. This should get process very fast, and in 2020 this was done in close to poll closing It will faster than 2020 cause there's only one ballot page and 2 questions, rather than 4 and 20+ different things to vote one. Then the majority of the remaining vote is E-Day or E-Day adjacent. In 2020 this took a few days to process, here it may be a case of hours because of the ballot size. The lagging vote then takes weeks, but this comparatively tiny pool only matters for tight races...which are the ones we usually pay attention to. If the race needs to wait of the long count, Newsom is in a world of danger.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1437611826456383492

I don’t know what this means, if anything, but it’ll be rather interesting.

You didn't provide all the context.

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1437612272872943621

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1437545443026739207

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

At what date/time do you get a final'ish result?

About 3 weeks from now, but I’d say about 75% of the votes will be reported tonight/within a couple of days. We’ll have a good idea of what’s gonna happen by the end of the night anyway.

Yeah history says about 75% of the vote is in the hands of the county boards or in dropboxes already. This should get process very fast, and in 2020 this was done in close to poll closing It will faster than 2020 cause there's only one ballot page and 2 questions, rather than 4 and 20+ different things to vote one. Then the majority of the remaining vote is E-Day or E-Day adjacent. In 2020 this took a few days to process, here it may be a case of hours because of the ballot size. The lagging vote then takes weeks, but this comparatively tiny pool only matters for tight races...which are the ones we usually pay attention to. If the race needs to wait of the long count, Newsom is in a world of danger.

Well, obviously, it's super unlikely, we'll get a tight race, but the margins are still interesting to watch. For instance, I'd like to know, if it is +20, +15 or +10.  So, if I understood you correctly, we'll get a result within ±1-2% in matter of hours after the polls are closed?

[Oryxslayer]

At what date/time do you get a final'ish result?

About 3 weeks from now, but I’d say about 75% of the votes will be reported tonight/within a couple of days. We’ll have a good idea of what’s gonna happen by the end of the night anyway.

Yeah history says about 75% of the vote is in the hands of the county boards or in dropboxes already. This should get process very fast, and in 2020 this was done in close to poll closing It will faster than 2020 cause there's only one ballot page and 2 questions, rather than 4 and 20+ different things to vote one. Then the majority of the remaining vote is E-Day or E-Day adjacent. In 2020 this took a few days to process, here it may be a case of hours because of the ballot size. The lagging vote then takes weeks, but this comparatively tiny pool only matters for tight races...which are the ones we usually pay attention to. If the race needs to wait of the long count, Newsom is in a world of danger.

Well, obviously, it's super unlikely, we'll get a tight race, but the margins are still interesting to watch. For instance, I'd like to know, if it is +20, +15 or +10.  So, if I understood you correctly, we'll get a result within ±1-2% in matter of hours after the polls are closed?

Yes. For context, I did a bit of digging for my DDHQ preview article coming out today. Joe Biden in 2020 had 65.1% of the vote after the 70% of pre-Eday vote and whatever else the counties had was  released before within 24 hours (earliest timestamp). Joe Biden's final margin was 63.5%. So once we see the millions of already processed votes, we will know the result within a MOE.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1437545443026739207

Ah, here we go again, my friends! The GOP just doesn't lose elections anymore. And when they do, it's rigged.

This must have been the same illegal voters that cost the orange buffoon the NPV in 2016. B'cause, you know, he didn't lose by 2.9 million to HRC.

[THG]

https://www.twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1437611826456383492
I don’t know what this means, if anything, but it’ll be rather interesting.

You didn't provide all the context.

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1437612272872943621

You’re acting like I was saying the recall had a chance to win because of this, when I said no such thing in fact.

And the fact that Republicans apparently lead in partisan turnout in the Southernmost tip of San Diego (Chula Vista, National City) says everything regardless of “context”, really.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

At what date/time do you get a final'ish result?

About 3 weeks from now, but I’d say about 75% of the votes will be reported tonight/within a couple of days. We’ll have a good idea of what’s gonna happen by the end of the night anyway.

Yeah history says about 75% of the vote is in the hands of the county boards or in dropboxes already. This should get process very fast, and in 2020 this was done in close to poll closing It will faster than 2020 cause there's only one ballot page and 2 questions, rather than 4 and 20+ different things to vote one. Then the majority of the remaining vote is E-Day or E-Day adjacent. In 2020 this took a few days to process, here it may be a case of hours because of the ballot size. The lagging vote then takes weeks, but this comparatively tiny pool only matters for tight races...which are the ones we usually pay attention to. If the race needs to wait of the long count, Newsom is in a world of danger.

Purely anecdotal, but many people early vote that I know, including my own family, never got around to it and are going in person today just because the election came up so quickly, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some weird higher in person rates in some places.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

I'm just stating this for my agreement with President Johnson. I will personally DM them if this prediction is wrong, as I'm a man of my word. I think this race will be between 9-14 points in favor of Remain. I have always been bullish on the Recall's chances (Heck I didn't even think there'd be a recall) and I think I've previously state lean bordering on Likely before and I now place it in Likely Remain, though I would not be surprised if it's a safe margin.

[I’m not Stu]

I think early voting is responsible for the current turnout rates. I can’t imagine GOP turnout being higher in Chula Vista than in Huntington Beach after the polls close.