THG’s current California recall prediction(s)

[THG]

WARNING: HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

• Nuisance survives by roughly 5-10 points or so as of now. I don’t see him being recalled as much as I’d yearn to see it occur.
• He collapses in SoCal, the more Central part of the state, the Sac Area, and literally everywhere that isn’t the Bay Area massively- but crucially, remains strong enough in the Bay Area to basically not lose. And remember- the Bay Area has unfortunately spiritually controlled California’s politics for the last 30 years, which it probably will continue to do, although that will eventually slowly but surely change.
• Nuisance does utterly horrendously with non college/working class voters of all races (including minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, based on polls) and also does very poorly among independents, but again, the types of liberals in the Bay (and other parts of the state, but mostly the Bay) who are partisan Democrats probably save him. Again, California is politically spiritually controlled by ultra ideologically liberal white Bay Area types, even if the raw demographics of the state on paper may tell you a somewhat different story.
• The recall map probably looks somewhat similar to the 2004 Presidential Election results in California.
• The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022.

 

[THG]

I'll freely admit that this prediction (so far) was hilariously terrible, but I would possibly wait until every last ballot (including the in person ones) is accounted for before the mockery begins. So that'd be in October.

My logic? Trump was losing California by either 40 or 36 (can't remember) on November the 4th, and Young Kim and David Valadao were also losing their races respectively.

This is before late VBM's and mail in ballots were counted.

Trump ended up narrowing the gap to "only" 29 as did Kim and Valadao, and California takes ridiculously long to count.

Of course, I could be wrong yet again, but I have to defend myself on some capacity. I think the margin (when it's said and done) is closer to like 61-39 or 60-40. Maybe it cracks 40% if God feels sorry for me after my prediction.

[THG]

Also my FINAL prediction had Newsom winning by closer to 15 than single digits.

I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.

[THG]

Also my FINAL prediction had Newsom winning by closer to 15 than single digits.

I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.

No your final prediction wasn't "closer to 15" it was 10-15, which is still double digits off despite the fact that you made it 24 hours before poll closing.  The fact that you can't just admit you were way way way off when you've lambasted Democrats for far less egregious errors is sad.

I would wait until all the election day votes are counted if I were you, and I've explained why.

Trump was losing California by 40 on November the 4th, which was obviously "double digits off" to what the his real margin of loss is. I'm not guaranteeing a huge swing to Elder- I believe "No" wins by around 20 as of now, but California hasn't even finished counting of all the ballots so far.

When all of the ballots are counted for is when we should be having this debate.

[THG]

Also my FINAL prediction had Newsom winning by closer to 15 than single digits.

I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.

No your final prediction wasn't "closer to 15" it was 10-15, which is still double digits off despite the fact that you made it 24 hours before poll closing.  The fact that you can't just admit you were way way way off when you've lambasted Democrats for far less egregious errors is sad.

I would wait until all the election day votes are counted if I were you, and I've explained why.

Trump was losing California by 40 on November the 4th, which was obviously "double digits off" to what the his real margin of loss is. I'm not guaranteeing a huge swing to Elder- I believe "No" wins by 20 as of now, but California hasn't even finished counting of all the ballots so far.

More votes were just counted in OC and Gavin's NO lead increased.  There is no way either your initial prediction or your revised prediction are even remotely close to accurate.  

We'll see! I'll be happy for you if you're right.

Like I said, I'm only basing my predictions off of what occurred in 2020. Vote dumps other than the OC one you highlighted have actually showcased that late ballots and in person vote dumps have generally actually favored YES.

Also, YES on recall has gradually increased since last night. This indicates that late ballots lean Republican and keep in mind that in person votes in California are generally counted after election day, unlike other states.

[THG]

In a situation like this you just have to do the right thing and delete your account.

I'm pretty sure one cannot willingly delete an account.

I also find it hilarious how they’re telling me to delete my account when most of the Election Day votes apparently haven’t been counted yet.

[THG]

In a situation like this you just have to do the right thing and delete your account.

I'm pretty sure one cannot willingly delete an account.

I also find it hilarious how they’re telling me to delete my account when most of the Election Day votes apparently haven’t been counted yet.

All of the EDay vote has been counted. What’s left are votes by mail received on or postmarked to election day.

I’m hearing mixed reports on this, but there are 3-4 million votes remaining, and I’d assume that a lot of them have to be ED votes or in person votes.

[THG]

Everyone makes bad predictions from time to time. I've made plenty. The important thing is owning it and understanding what you got wrong. I get that it's tempting for Republicans to think that the R trend among Latinos will continue, and while I don't think the Clinton/Trump or No vote '16/Trump voters are going to all come back to the Democrats in 2022/2024, I don't think there's clear evidence of a large number of Biden/Republican '24 Latino voters.

You raise solid points, though I don’t fully agree with everything.

As for the Hispanic thing:

1) This is a special election with lower turnout, it may not be wise to judge trends based on this.

2) Hispanics in California are historically liberal just like Cubans in Florida lean conservative, so either way these aren’t the greatest barometer for that demographic in general. Also Hispanics aren’t monolithic at all, which both Republicans and Democrats seem to misunderstand.

3) We haven’t even gotten the full results yet, so I won’t judge any trends until we do. If you were to go based on the data released so far, it indicates that Newsom basically did similarly among coastal Hispanics in places like the Bay, LA, and OC, but likely regressed among inland Hispanics (SB, Riverside, Fresno and Staninlaus/Merced).

[THG]

Everyone makes bad predictions from time to time. I've made plenty. The important thing is owning it and understanding what you got wrong. I get that it's tempting for Republicans to think that the R trend among Latinos will continue, and while I don't think the Clinton/Trump or No vote '16/Trump voters are going to all come back to the Democrats in 2022/2024, I don't think there's clear evidence of a large number of Biden/Republican '24 Latino voters.

You raise solid points, though I don’t fully agree with everything.

As for the Hispanic thing:

1) This is a special election with lower turnout, it may not be wise to judge trends based on this.

2) Hispanics in California are historically liberal just like Cubans in Florida lean conservative, so either way these aren’t the greatest barometer for that demographic in general. Also Hispanics aren’t monolithic at all, which both Republicans and Democrats seem to misunderstand.

3) We haven’t even gotten the full results yet, so I won’t judge any trends until we do. If you were to go based on the data released so far, it indicates that Newsom basically did similarly among coastal Hispanics in places like the Bay, LA, and OC, but likely regressed among inland Hispanics (SB, Riverside, Fresno and Staninlaus/Merced).

Right, my point is that the evidence isn't really there that there will be a big R swing going forward (not that it's impossible, but we'd need to see more evidence to conclude that) and I don't think we're going to see a universal swing among all Latinos either way. We'll have to see what happens in 2022 (keeping in mind the national environment), but I could see an increasing split among urban/rural Latinos. You did predict a collapse in SoCal, and that doesn't seem to have happened, since it looks like he'll get pretty typical numbers for a Democrat there, so it might be good to recognize that.

Well I over estimated the recall margin in SoCal for sure. Although I will wait until all ballots are counted until we can judge.

But yeah anyone who predicted an RGV style swing in California was wrong, even I thought that swings among Latinos would still be smaller.

I actually thought whites would swing heavily for being pro recall and thus cause a huge rightward shift particularly in SoCal, but that appears to have failed completely. If anything whites and specifically college educated whites have stayed exactly similar to usual margins for a Dem!