NH (St. Anselm): Sununu +8

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/1432809679386779654

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Incumbent at 41% is always a good sign.

 

[MT Treasurer]

Yay, the SunuNUT 2010-redux meme map is back.

Every race is a #redux:

AZ-2022 = FL-2018 (oh wait Ducey isn’t running, in that case) FL-2012
NV-2022 = NV-2010, 2016, 2018
GA-2022 = NC-2014
NH-2022 = NH-2016 0, after the Sununu+7 poll
WI-2022 = AR-2010 if Johnson runs, OH-2010 if he retires
PA-2022 = IN-1998

but that’s just imo

Cue the "Sununu collapsing" predictions when UNH shows the race tied next month only for another survey to show Sununu +6 in October, etc. etc.

Either way, I think Republicans have a lot to like about their chances in all of AZ/NH/NV regardless of the order in which you think they are most likely to flip. Irrespective of what polling may indicate, I think NH and ME in particular are primed for a rightward shift in 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassn is gonna win, it's still a yr too early and we haven't had an announcement yet from Sununu

[Ferguson97]

I hope to god he doesn't run

[SnowLabrador]

This is to be expected, since the national environment is getting much better for Republicans.

[DrScholl]

Do you all not realize that Democrats have not nuked him yet? By the time election day rolls around he'll look much worse. And that isn't even taking into account how he has to handle keeping Trump away without alienating Trump voters.

[SnowLabrador]

Do you all not realize that Democrats have not nuked him yet? By the time election day rolls around he'll look much worse. And that isn't even taking into account how he has to handle keeping Trump away without alienating Trump voters.

That reminds me of the takes regarding Rick Scott in 2018. I expect it to be a FL-SEN 2018 redux, except Hassan loses by much more than Bill Nelson did.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Can't imagine he doesn't run. And it'll be very hard for the Democrats to "nuke him", given that he's a popular Governor with bipartisan support in a solid purple state. The odds are good that this and PA will just cancel each other out, so no reason to panic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 500 days til the Election, D's shouldn't be worried until Summer 2022

[DrScholl]

Do you all not realize that Democrats have not nuked him yet? By the time election day rolls around he'll look much worse. And that isn't even taking into account how he has to handle keeping Trump away without alienating Trump voters.

That reminds me of the takes regarding Rick Scott in 2018. I expect it to be a FL-SEN 2018 redux, except Hassan loses by much more than Bill Nelson did.

Florida is much more Republican than New Hampshire.

Can't imagine he doesn't run. And it'll be very hard for the Democrats to "nuke him", given that he's a popular Governor with bipartisan support in a solid purple state. The odds are good that this and PA will just cancel each other out, so no reason to panic.

That's a take I would expect a Republican to give. Yes, he can be nuked and very badly. Governors have support that they often can't keep if they run for Senate. Being Governor is a whole lot different than handing Mitch McConnell the power to shut down Supreme Court nominees and everything else Biden proposes.

[Morning in Atlas]

Do you all not realize that Democrats have not nuked him yet? By the time election day rolls around he'll look much worse. And that isn't even taking into account how he has to handle keeping Trump away without alienating Trump voters.

That reminds me of the takes regarding Rick Scott in 2018. I expect it to be a FL-SEN 2018 redux, except Hassan loses by much more than Bill Nelson did.

FL is much more polarized than NH.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I hope to god he doesn't run

Don't hold your breath. Polls like this just make it more likely. Pour one out for Democrats holding this seat.

All eyes on picking up Pennsylvania and successfully defending everything else, I guess.

[Gracile]

I don't think it will be this lopsided in the end, but Sununu will definitely be a formidable candidate against Hassan.

[Benjamin Frank]

I would expect the day, or a few days after, Sununu announces he's running, if he announces he's running, that his lead would evaporate.

While he's still in politics, unlike Hillary Clinton in 2015, he wouldn't be just a popular governor anymore, he'd be a Republican running to join other Republicans in the U.S Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls are useless, they have Rubio up by only 2 and CCM and Hassan down by 10, D's would win NV and NH before FL

[S019]

Do you all not realize that Democrats have not nuked him yet? By the time election day rolls around he'll look much worse. And that isn't even taking into account how he has to handle keeping Trump away without alienating Trump voters.

New Hampshire is a swing state, not a blue state, it was very close in 2016 and just seems to tend to be elastic more than anything else. Also Democrats have tried tying him to Trump in all three of his statewide bids and it didn't work, the same failed strategies are not the answer, remains Lean R with Sununu, Tossup without.

[TML]

Do you all not realize that Democrats have not nuked him yet? By the time election day rolls around he'll look much worse. And that isn't even taking into account how he has to handle keeping Trump away without alienating Trump voters.

New Hampshire is a swing state, not a blue state, it was very close in 2016 and just seems to tend to be elastic more than anything else. Also Democrats have tried tying him to Trump in all three of his statewide bids and it didn't work, the same failed strategies are not the answer, remains Lean R with Sununu, Tossup without.

You do realize that gubernatorial and Senate races are not exactly of the same nature, right? There’s a reason why people like Mike Sullivan, Bill Weld, Linda Lingle, Phil Bredesen and Steve Bullock were able to win gubernatorial races but not Senatorial races (The same would hold true for people like Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, and Larry Hogan should any of them attempt to run for Senate in the foreseeable future.). It is much easier to tie candidates to national political figures when they are running for federal offices instead of state- or local-level offices.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

I do feel Sununu would be favored.  If elected, he'd either be moderate on some votes or he'd just morph into a Mitch McConnell conservative clone.

He'd be up again in 2028, which is anyone's guess as to what that year will be like. 

He might be a one-term senator, who knows?

[Devils30]

Biden was at 44% in this poll, seems a bit low for a state he won by 7.

[Calthrina950]

New Hampshire remains a very elastic state, at least in downballot races, as Sununu's 2-1 landslide and Shaheen's double-digit victory last year demonstrate. Hassan is-along with Masto, Warnock, and Kelly-one of the most vulnerable Democratic Senators next year. If Sununu does run, I expect the polls to tighten, but I think it's fair to say that he's the favorite at this juncture.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan and CCM loosing is just as likely as Rubio or DeSantis losing which the polls screwed up in 2018, they had Laxalt beating SISOLAK and Gillium winning

It's a 3o4 map anyways, as soon as we find out whom is running for Gov on F side

[DaleCooper]

Do you all not realize that Democrats have not nuked him yet? By the time election day rolls around he'll look much worse. And that isn't even taking into account how he has to handle keeping Trump away without alienating Trump voters.

They can nuke him, and that will cost him a lot of the Biden-Sununu voters he got in 2016, but probably not enough of them. Smearing Sununu as a partisan Republican would be a lot more effective if Hassan wasn't a partisan Democrat. It will come down to whether New Hampshire voters want the former or the latter, and there's no reason to expect the Democratic brand to be viewed more positively than the Republican one in 2022.

I still think Sununu would be a fool to take this race for granted because if he runs a poor campaign for whatever reason he could end up throwing this away, but Hassan better start taking this election seriously right now if she wants to win.

[wbrocks67]

Biden was at 44% in this poll, seems a bit low for a state he won by 7.

NH polls have frankly been quite a mess since Biden's election, which is odd considering that NH polls were pretty good for most of the actual 2020 cycle.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wait for a PPP poll or a UNH poll or Change all the others are PARTISAN