Ireland Election 2007

[Јas]

The Irish Times reported the following to be part of the deal:
 
Iraq-bound United States military flights will continue to use Shannon airport.

Dáil approval will be required before any non-United Nations mandated military flight will be allowed to land, but this will not interfere with the Americans' current use of the airport, since they now operate on a UN mandate.

All new roads planned by the outgoing Government will go ahead, including the controversial M3 motorway.

Harney offered Foreign Affairs, but refused, and will continue as Health Minster.

No concessions on corporate donations.

Carbon tax to be introduced over the next five years.

Proposed FF tax cuts to go ahead.

Extra €350 million to be spent on education.

Greens have demanded two senior cabinet posts, but have been offered one cabinet ministry, one minister of state and one 'super junior'.

Greens have asked for Transport and Environment, but these portfolios have yet to be assigned.


If this is the deal, (and there is an if over it, though most of this seems to be confirmed by other media outlets, including RTÉ) then I can't see how it can be seen as anything but a shambles from the Green's perspective. They really have very little to present to their delegates. I'm amazed that after almost a week of negotiating this is the best they could do and something the leadership deemed acceptable.

It looks like there's alot of aspirational stuff; commissions looking into X,Y and Z and green papers. If it all came baout well and good, but it's so easy to see it all being wiggled out of.

Two-thirds approval for going in with FF & PDs was always going to be a tough sell, if these points are accurate, then this will be a real test of the strength of the leadership.

This is the cover of the upcoming issue of The Phoenix (Irish equivalent to Private Eye):
 


In other news, it seems that both Finian McGrath (Ind-Dublin NC) and Michael Lowry (Ind-Tipp S) have signed deals to back an Ahern led government. Details of the material contents of the deals have not yet been disclosed.

That makes 3 of the 5 Independents onside. Talks have taken place with Beverley Flynn (Mayo), but it seems that Tony Gregory (Dublin C) has been left out in the cold - for which I have no explanation whatsoever.

[Јas]

*Breaking News*
Trevor Sargent has resigned the Green leadership.
More later.

(I think I've beaten RTÉ to this one.)

[Јas]

The RTE/Lansdowne Market Research exit poll found that a FF/Green coalition was the preferred choice of a mere 4% of voters

Preferred coalitions, in order of most desirable, in the exit poll were as follows [2002 figures]:

FG/LAB 30% [20%]
FF/PD 18% [28%]
FF on its own 15% [15%]
FG/LAB/Green 13% [11%]
FF/LAB 8% [9%]
FF/SF 7% [n/a]
FF/IND 5% [7%]
FF/Green 4% [3%]

Should it happen, can the Greens expect a backlash against them at the next election?

Dave

Short answer - yes.

Almost certainly will see a big drop off in transfers from FG. Should see a noticeable drop from Labour voters too.

FF voters haven't been amendable to them because the FF leadership have been painting them as lunatic fringe environmentalists up until last week. That may change if there was seen to be a successful FF-Grn government, but it's hard to say for sure. Often times parties that do a deal with FF come out very poorly next time (see Labour 1997; PDs 2007), though there was the exception of the PDs in 2002.

Green first preferences should also go down, all things being equal. I'd expect some of their voters to peel off to Labour or SF (or to people like Richard Boyd-Barrett in Dún Laoighaire).

Transfers are what keep the Greens alive, and a deal with FF certainly threatens to cut off this life-blood. If Green transfer's take a significant hit, they could be destroyed next time out.

[Јas]

Looking at each of the Greens seats...

1. Ciarán Cuffe (Dún Laoighaire)
Received 0.46 of a quota on the first count. Elected largely on the back of FG transfers. (Note there weren't many FF transfers to go around here.)

His seat would have to be seen as super-marginal. I'd suggest Richard Boyd-Barret (PBP) would be liekly to unseat him by taking a chunk of Cuffe's first preferences and by CUffe losing out big-time on transfers.

2. Mary White (Carlow-Kilkenny)
Received 0.48 of a quota. Elected on the back of Labour transfers ahead of a FG candidate. Also very vulnerable. Also couldn't expect a great deal of FF help. Seat would likely fall to FG or Labour.

3. Paul Gogarty (Dublin MW)
0.54 of a quota. Elected with the help of good transfers from an Independent; SF and FF. Could expect to lose quite a bit of that Inependent and SF backing. If his first preference vote held up and the FF transfers improved, he should hold the seat. Big ifs though, with FG threatening the seat.

4. Eamon Ryan (Dublin S)
0.66 of a quota. Elected thanks mostly to Labour votes and the silly 2 candidate Labour strategy. The right single Labour candidate could beat him. Seat should be held but certainly a lean at best.

5. Trevor Sargent (Dublin N)
0.68 of a quota. (However there is another 0.15 Green quota here, giving a total of 0.83).

Safest Green seat, but note elected thanks to a large vote from the Socialists. Expect that to disappear fast. There are FF transfers available though.

6. John Gormley (Dublin SE)
0.69 of a quota.

Did best on the transfer of the multiple Independents; same with SF distribution. Both would suffer. There are FF votes available though, and it was the PD's Michael McDowell who was next in line and is now retired. Should hold but not unforseaable loss.

All in all, easy to see a loss of 3 Green seats.

Even otherwise, it's hard to find good shots at gains. Best other candidates this time Dan Boyle (Cork SC) [0.5 of a quota]; Deirdre deBúrca (Wicklow) [0.44]; Mark Dearey (Louth) [0.38]...
In these circumstances, it becomes much harder.

[freek]

The RTE/Lansdowne Market Research exit poll found that a FF/Green coalition was the preferred choice of a mere 4% of voters

Preferred coalitions, in order of most desirable, in the exit poll were as follows [2002 figures]:

FG/LAB 30% [20%]
FF/PD 18% [28%]
FF on its own 15% [15%]
FG/LAB/Green 13% [11%]
FF/LAB 8% [9%]
FF/SF 7% [n/a]
FF/IND 5% [7%]
FF/Green 4% [3%]

Dave

They should have conducted the poll in true Irish style, by using STV.

[Јas]

Announcement on Green vote result expected around 9.15p.m.

Other news, John O'Donoghue (FF-Kerry S) expected to be the new Ceann Comhairle.

[Democratic Hawk]

*Breaking News*
Trevor Sargent has resigned the Green leadership.
More later.

(I think I've beaten RTÉ to this one.)

Sargent famously said that if the Greens ever went into government with FF, then he would no longer be leading the party. Given such a shift in position is it a sign of things to come later this evening?

Roger Garland has described the deal as "unbelievably bad" and that he feels betrayed by it. Perhaps most Greens feel the same?

Dave

[minionofmidas]

I'll be watching this space... still hoping that the deal falls through and we'll have new elections soon.

[Јas]

The Green membership have backed the deal - 86% in favour.

Yes: 441
No: 67
Spolt: 2

[minionofmidas]

The Green membership have backed the deal - 86% in favour.

Yes: 441
No: 67
Spolt: 2

Sh!t.

[Јas]

Despite some confusion it has been confirmed that Sargent is stepping down (though one notes that he was strongly in favour of the deal and was self-evidently delighted when the declaration came through). He will continue on as Acting Leader until a new leader is elected.

[minionofmidas]

Despite some confusion it has been confirmed that Sargent is stepping down (though one notes that he was strongly in favour of the deal and was self-evidently delighted when the declaration came through).

Okay, now I don't understand anything anymore. Wtf is going on?

[Јas]

It now looks like the government will have a solid majority.

Government
FF 78
+ Grn 6
+ PD 2
+ Inds 3 (Healy-Rae; McGrath; Lowry)
- Ceann Comhairle 1 (O'Donohue)
= 88

Opposition
FG 51
+ Lab 20
+ SF 4
+ Inds 2 (Gregory; Flynn)
= 77

Majority of 11. Reasonably comfortable by Irish standards.

[Јas]

Despite some confusion it has been confirmed that Sargent is stepping down (though one notes that he was strongly in favour of the deal and was self-evidently delighted when the declaration came through).

Okay, now I don't understand anything anymore. Wtf is going on?

Prior to the election, Sargent promised to stand down as Green leader rather than enter government with Fianna Fáil (however, rather oddly, said he would be prepared to serve as a minister in such a government).

He seems to be honouring that promise.

[Democratic Hawk]

It will all end in tears for the Greens at the next election

Dave

[Kevinstat]

It now looks like the government will have a solid majority.

Government
[89]
- Ceann Comhairle 1 (O'Donohue)
= 88

So Kerry South will be a 2-seater in the next election unless O'Donohue steps down (unless the seat gained a TD or there was significantly redrawn before the next election).  I wonder how Jackie Healy-Rae (who is from the same constituency, for those who don't know) feels about that.  Will Fianna Fail field two candidates in Kerry South in the next election if it's a two-seater and Healy-Rae were running for reelection?  I couldn't see them winning both seats with Healy-Rea drawing as many votes from them as he generally does, but they well exceeded a Droop/Newland-Britton (sp?) quota (1/(x+1) with or without 1 vote added to the quota, one of which Ireland seems to use) for a 2-seater in the last two elections so they wouldn't have to worry about getting wiped out there (well, they couldn't get wiped out with the Speaker automatically in, but you get what I mean) if they ran two candidates in opposition to Healy-Rae.

[minionofmidas]

It hardly matters whether FF runs one candidate or two. They'll find it hard, though not impossible, to get both a single FF man and Healy-Rae in.

[Јas]

This morning a fourth Independent made a deal with the government. Beverley Flynn (Mayo) has signed off to support Ahern for the duration of the government. The details of the deal (as with those of other Independents) remains confidential.

That leaves only 1 Independent whom the government have not approached or made a deal with - Tony Gregory (Dublin C). It's believed that the local rivalry with Gregory was a major reason why Ahern made no approach. I'd also suggest that Gregory may have been perceived as the toughest to negotiate with of the Independents.

At 3p.m., the 30th Dáil convened for the first time. Top of the agenda was election of the Ceann Comhairle. For the first time in almost 20 years, 2 nominations were put forward. Ahern nominated John O'Donoghue (FF-Kerry S); Rabitte nominated former Labour leader and Minister for Justice Ruairí Quinn (Lab-Dublin SE).

An interesting point about this is that O'Donoghue has made the most disparaging comments about the Greens in recent times, when FF were in the business of demonising them (too the extent that the FF electorate don't trust the Greens - oh the irony) whereas the would be more than happy to see Quinn in the chair. Neveretheless, there was no question of any issue being made from the Greens over this.

The Dáil voted 90-75-1 to accept O'Donoghue. Note that this was a simple approval or disapproval vote on O'Donoghue, if he failed there would have been a similar vote on Quinn. (The same procedure is used for Taoiseach). The abstention was probably Gregory, but I've not found any confirmation on this yet.

The next matter of business was nominating a Taoiseach. Brian Cowen (Dep. Leader FF - Laois/Offaly) nominated Ahern. Rabitte nominated Enda Kenny. Ahern was accepted on a vote of 89-76, so no vote was taken on the Kenny nomination. Ahern was then taken to Áras an Uachtaráin (the residence of the President of Ireland) and presented with the seal of office. A historic achievement to be elected as Taoiseach for a 3rd term following two full five year terms.

This evening the new cabinet has also been announced.

Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries & Food: Mary Coughlan (FF-Donegal SW) (Unchanged)
Minister for Arts, Sport & Tourism: Seamus Brennan (FF-Dublin S) (Was Minister for Social and Family Affairs)
Minister for Communications & Natural Resources: Eamon Ryan (Grn-Dublin S)
Minister for Community, Rural & Gaeltacht Affairs: Eamon O'Cuiv (FF-Galway W) (Unchanged)
Minister for Defence: Willie O'Dea (FF-Limerick E) (Unchanged)
Minister for Education & Science: Mary Hanafin (FF-Dún Laoighaire) (Unchanged)
Minister for Enterprise, Trade & Employment: Micheal Martin (FF-Cork SC) (Unchanged)
Minister for the Environment, Heritage & Local Government: John Gormley (Grn-Dublin SE)
Minister for Finance: Brian Cowen (FF-Laois/Offaly) (Unchanged)
Minister for Foreign Affairs: Dermot Ahern (FF-Louth) (Unchanged)
Minister for Health & Children: Mary Harney (PD-Dublin MW) (Unchanged)
Minister for Justice, Equality & Law Reform: Brian Lenihan (FF-Dublin W) (First full cabinet post, was a Minister of State [i.e. Junior Minister] last time, effectively was Minister for Children)
Minister for Social & Family Affairs: Martin Cullen (FF-Waterford) (Was Minister for Transport)
Minister for Transport & Marine: Noel Dempsey (FF-Meath E) (Was Minister for Communications, Marine and Natural Resources)

Chief Whip (and Minister of State, Dept Of Defence) Tom Kitt  (FF-Dublin S) (Unchanged)
Attorney General Paul Gallagher (Not a TD, the AG is usually a senior barrister. Gallagher replaces the outgoing Hugh Mohan.)

The Tánaiste (i.e. Deputy PM) is now Brian Cowen.

So that's 2 senior Ministries for the Greens, both areas they would have sought and Mary Harney retains a PD seat in cabinet at Health.

As ever Ahern is not one for major reshuffles. This is about as stationary as he could have made it. Only one FF demotion from Cabinet - Dick Roche (FF-Wicklow) the former Minister for the Environment and a man whom the Greens would hate with a passion. The same could be said for Martin Cullen who moved from Transport to Social and Family Affairs. Cullen would definitely be on the right-wing of FF.

The major promotion is Brian Lenihan, widely expected. Perfectly competent (unlike his brother Conor - the outgoing Junior Minister for International Aid & Development).

The positions of Ministries of State/Junior Ministers will be announced next week. However the only FF Cabinet level demotion has been announced. Dick Roche will be the Minister of State for European Affairs.

[Јas]

It now looks like the government will have a solid majority.

Government
[89]
- Ceann Comhairle 1 (O'Donohue)
= 88

So Kerry South will be a 2-seater in the next election unless O'Donohue steps down (unless the seat gained a TD or there was significantly redrawn before the next election).  I wonder how Jackie Healy-Rae (who is from the same constituency, for those who don't know) feels about that.  Will Fianna Fail field two candidates in Kerry South in the next election if it's a two-seater and Healy-Rae were running for reelection?  I couldn't see them winning both seats with Healy-Rea drawing as many votes from them as he generally does, but they well exceeded a Droop/Newland-Britton (sp?) quota (1/(x+1) with or without 1 vote added to the quota, one of which Ireland seems to use) for a 2-seater in the last two elections so they wouldn't have to worry about getting wiped out there (well, they couldn't get wiped out with the Speaker automatically in, but you get what I mean) if they ran two candidates in opposition to Healy-Rae.

Yes, Kerry South would become a 2-seater. (However, a new constiuency review will have to take place before the next election as the current ones are already dubious. It's possivble that Kerry South and North will be put together to form a single 5-seater next time.)

If it was to become a 2 seater, it is IMO virtually impossible for Healy-Rae to hold. However, the thought of it certainly didn't appear to be troubling him. I saw him speaking on the nomination of Taoiseach shortly after O'Donoghue was elected. He first spoke briefly on the incoming CC and was in a very positive mood and was even poking fun at his constituency rival.

In a Kerry 5-seater, I could see Healy-Rae holding the seat. If Kerry South becomes an effective 2-seater, he really doesn't stand much chance. However, Healy-Rae is the now the oldest TD (77, I think). Retirement was talked about prior to this election, if the Dáil lasts a full 5 years, which seems likely, he's unlikely to seek re-election. More likely that one of his two politically active sons (Danny or Michael, probably Michael) would run to try and hold the Healy-Rae seat. Either of them would find trying to get elected a tough task in any circumstance.

As for FF, if it is a 2-seater, they can only really win 1. They polled just shy of 41% this time. The new quota would be over 33%. Both seats would be impossible. They might run 2, for geographic reasons or to help establish a new contender for a real run in the future, but not in the belief that there are 2 seats for the taking.

[minionofmidas]

Minister for Community, Rural & Gaeltacht Affairs: Eamon O'Cuiv (FF-Galway W) (Unchanged)

How do you pronounce this surname?

[Јas]

Minister for Community, Rural & Gaeltacht Affairs: Eamon O'Cuiv (FF-Galway W) (Unchanged)

How do you pronounce this surname?

Actually, I've spelled that incorrectly. Its Eamon Ó Cuív. Pronounced "O Kweev"

He's a grandson of Eamon de Valera.


A couple of interesting political stories have cropped up...

The new cabinet held their first meeting last night and we already have our first bit of controversy.

It has emereged that on Tuesday last, the outgoing Minister for the Environment Dick Roche gave an order to allow the construction of the new M3 motorway over an archaelogical site at Tara, Co. Meath (a place of historical/archeological significance as the ancient capital of Ireland).

The incoming Green Minister John Gormley has said that he's not a position to reverse the decision. The Greens have been vocal in the campaign to re-route the motorway away from any areas of archeological interest in Tara. Legally, Gormley would seem to have the power to alter the decision - and is facing criticism from the opposition, various archaological/historical/environmentalist groups and indeed members of his own party. So smooth times ahead for the Greens...

Also, in an interview with RTÉ Radio this afternoon, Ahern has indicated that Beverley Flynn (Ind-Mayo) may be re-admitted to the FF party 3 years after her expulsion. It also seems likely that before the end of the government term she could find herself in a Junior Ministerial position.

Finally, in that same interview Ahern has said that he regards Brian Cowen as his obvious successor "in 5 years or whenever". He was generally full of praise for the new Tánaiste.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

@Jas:

As a Dublin Southian I can tell you that Labour's "two candidate Strategy" never was.. literally what happened was there was a tie at the labour convention between White & Culihane. There then was a random draw where Culihane was selected, for whatever reason later on the Local labour party (realizing perhaps how much a better campaigner Alex White was) also added White to the ballot. With only one candidate labour would have for sure won a seat here. Either at Ryan or Shatter's expense.

I cannot see a happy fate for the greens at the end of this. It's probably best for them that Quinn didn't end up as CC, as Gormley's seat would be in deep trouble for 2012(presuming now.. the Greens could quit and FF-PD-IND would still have a majority). If nothing visible achieved by then an anti-Green gallop is inevitable. Labour will probably benefit the most, and to a lesser extent the far left, though I'm not sure on Barrett - with a high media profile I think people in Dun Laoghaire  (*cough* Richest constituency in the country *cough*) would realize how misleading his "People Before Profit" moniker was - plus how much of an issue are the local baths in Dun Laoghaire going to be in five years time. Potential though for two Labour seats in a good year there, and of course it used to be a stronghold of FG (When it was to home Liam Cosgrave...)

Of course any real speculation about 2012 is pointless right now.. I remember alot of commentators between 97-02 claiming it that Election 02' would be the death of the PD's.. they well off by five years, they doubled their seats in 2002...

[Јas]

@Jas:

As a Dublin Southian I can tell you that Labour's "two candidate Strategy" never was.. literally what happened was there was a tie at the labour convention between White & Culihane. There then was a random draw where Culihane was selected, for whatever reason later on the Local labour party (realizing perhaps how much a better campaigner Alex White was) also added White to the ballot. With only one candidate labour would have for sure won a seat here. Either at Ryan or Shatter's expense.

Just how likely a single candidate would have been to take a seat there, though certainly much, much better than 1, which was never really a viable strategy for taking a seat.

I cannot see a happy fate for the greens at the end of this. It's probably best for them that Quinn didn't end up as CC, as Gormley's seat would be in deep trouble for 2012(presuming now.. the Greens could quit and FF-PD-IND would still have a majority). If nothing visible achieved by then an anti-Green gallop is inevitable. Labour will probably benefit the most, and to a lesser extent the far left, though I'm not sure on Barrett - with a high media profile I think people in Dun Laoghaire  (*cough* Richest constituency in the country *cough*) would realize how misleading his "People Before Profit" moniker was - plus how much of an issue are the local baths in Dun Laoghaire going to be in five years time. Potential though for two Labour seats in a good year there, and of course it used to be a stronghold of FG (When it was to home Liam Cosgrave...)

Probably true on the electoral impact of Quinn as CC.

Boyd-Barrett had to be about more than the baths issue, no? (Though, I really don't know very much about the local issues there this time out.) Dun Laoighaire has always been a bit odd. As it stands, Cuffe's seat is extremely marginal and looking through the count it would be between Boyd-Barret and FG to pick it up, depending on where Cuffe's votes would go. Labour only have 1 quota there, getting two seats would require a heck of swing. Of course, if a week is a long time in politics, it's far beyond my wisdom to say what the outcome of an election possibly 5 years away will be.

Of course any real speculation about 2012 is pointless right now.. I remember alot of commentators between 97-02 claiming it that Election 02' would be the death of the PD's.. they well off by five years, they doubled their seats in 2002...

Yeah, fair point. Though the PDs have been very hard to predict at each election. In 1992, 1997 and 2002 they effectively had the same national share of the vote but wildly differing fortunes.

There is a scenario whereby the Greens come out with significant gains at the next election. If they are perceived as responsible in what is considered a successful government, they will make themselves much more likely to gain from FF transfers. If they fight the next election as an independent party, they can still expect a reasonable share amount of leftist votes and transfers.


Here is my first meagre attempt at electoral cartography. I've borrowed/fiendishly stolen the template afleitch used for the big 3 parties earlier in this thread.

Figured the best place to strat was with the party of the moment. The Greens ran in all 43 constituencies for the first time. But it's clear that rural Ireland haven't warmed to them and that even in urban areas safe seats are hard to come by.

[Јas]

Not sure whether or not anyone will have any interest, or indeed be able to follow what I'm at, but here goes.

The following is a table which attempts to display the relative ratios of where Labour transfers went in this election. To compare how two parties did from Labour transfers, find the intersection point between the two. The number displayed is the ratio of the number of transfers the party on the horizontal axis can expect to recieve for every 1 transfer the party on the vertical axis recieved.

Anyway, for example, from the table it can be seen that the PDs (unsurprisingly) which fare by far the worst from Labour transfers. What may be surprising is just how badly they do. For every transfer the PDs got, SF (the second least transferred to party) got (on average) 3.47 transfers; whilest FF can expect 3.07.

	FF	FG	Lab	Grn	SF	PD	Ind	N-T
FF	n/a	2.20	2.98	1.74	0.71	0.33	1.04	0.60
FG	0.45	n/a	1.51	0.87	0.22	0.11	0.44	0.29
Lab	0.34	0.66	n/a	0.28	n/a	0.08	0.11	0.22
Grn	0.57	1.15	3.61	n/a	0.59	0.29	0.45	0.35
SF	1.41	4.60	n/a	1.70	n/a	0.29	n/a	0.67
PD	3.07	8.82	13.06	3.84	3.47	n/a	2.63	1.47
Ind	0.96	2.28	9.28	2.21	n/a	0.38	n/a	0.42
N-T	1.67	3.51	4.51	2.86	1.49	0.68	2.37	n/a

The Greens did well, preferred third after Labour themselves and FG. Indeed they weren't far behind FG, getting 0.87 transfers for every FG 1. It seems quite likely that this will have to fall next time after the Greens decision to join the government.

Anyway, just thought I'd share. May get around to doing some other parties later.

(BTW, N-T stands for Non-Transferables, ballots which didn't transfer to any remaining candidate.)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

No matter how much drugs I ingest that table makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Sort of like Jackie Healy Rae's hair - one of the wonders of the natural(?) world that, no matter how much you look you can't help but think "WTH!?".

Boyd Barrett was the leader of the Irish Historical revisionistic anti-everything especially American Brigade anti-war movement, a political movement with great, intelligent people campaigning with absolutely no brain running the show. UCD is in Dublin South East (I think), so I don't think he just got the stoner\student\right-on vote though that made up alot of it - Boyd Barrett is the poster boy of Cliche Born-in-Foxrock-but-still-very-left-wing protesters who like to think of themselves as "different" and "alienated from society" because of their "views" - mainly found in the old, boring tomes of their baby boom parents. The type of relic you now find in Rossport, Co. Mayo fighting the man and speaking for the people - who then vote for five TDs who completely oppose the "wishes of the people".

I've ranted enough for now. Thankfully no-one has mentioned Seamus Brennan topping the poll with 3,000 or so votes over the quota...